Torrential rain causes widespread flooding in Florida panhandle

By: Angela Fritz , 2:25 AM GMT on June 10, 2012

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Torrential rainfall led to widespread flooding along the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday, and Pensacola came about 2 inches shy of matching its all-time rainfall record for a calendar day: 15.29 inches. On Saturday, Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain. The previous record was set on October 5, 1934, as Tropical Storm 9 of that year was making landfall. The record for any 24 hour period is 17.1 inches, spanning Octover 4-5 in 1934, according to Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt.

A state of emergency was declared for Florida's Escambia County. According to the AP:

Emergency shelters were opened at a few local schools for people who were urged to evacuate from low-lying areas, the newspaper reported. Thousands were without power. Neighboring Santa Rosa County had about 40 homes flooded.

Streets were flooded throughout Mobile, Ala., which got 5.79 inches of rain. County authorities warned residents to stay off the roads until the waters receded and workers could look for damage and downed utilities.


The rain has since ended for now in the Gulf states, but images and video of the aftermath are still pouring in. The area is expected to receive more rain on Sunday, which could last until the middle of next week, as thunderstorms fire along a stationary front which is draped across the coastal states.


Figure 1. Widespread, heavy rain washes onto the Gulf shores on Saturday, enhanced by a lingering stationary front that's draped across the region. The heaviest rain fell in Pensacola, Florida, which came 2 inches shy of breaking its all-time calendar day rainfall record.


Video: Downtown Pensacola still flooded this evening after the rain had stop. The city's airport received 13.13 inches of rain since midnight.

Angela

Pensacola, FL (Jebekarue)
South Fairfield Drive, north of Hwy 98.
Pensacola, FL
Pensacola Flooding (flwthrfan)
Pensacola
Pensacola Flooding
flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood

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that is a TD now...
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that??
That looks like the MJO mixed with a fat tropical wave and monsoonal low..Then we ram a nice juicy front into it..yeah....dooom...DOOM...jk...really ..jk.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
This is what (no surprise) would trigger development off the US East Coast as it will be forced NE towards the East Coast over the week. There's already a low pressure with it.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Possibly, it would be an extraordinary event for 4 named storms before July so I wouldn't count on it.
But no one counted on Beryl and Alberto forming in May a week apart from each other :).This season is sure going to be entertaining.
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Miserable here in South Central Texas, .03 of rain here last 4 weeks, soil is very dry. High today and Monday 100, may drop into upper 90's starting Tuesday if we are lucky? Temp now 81, humidity 91 percent. Very Strong High Pressure in South and West Texas should dominate our weather for some time. Front may move into extreme north Texas but should not get very far into the State. Sorry for all those getting flooded in the Southeast, I want a shower every now and then but I dont want floods and mosquitoes.
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Forever missing...ASCAT.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.So "Chris" looks to first develop off the coast of N.C.Then develops "Debby" in the caribbean?.Looks like it according to the models.


Possibly, it would be an extraordinary event for 4 named storms before July so I wouldn't count on it.
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Good morning.So "Chris" looks to first develop off the coast of N.C.Then develops "Debby" in the caribbean?.Looks like it according to the models.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Here we go again...

We have had 4+ inches already this morning prolly end up near 5 inches by the end of it
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makes sense,yet another TC off the Carolina coastline,3rd this year...a pattern imo and most TC's should recurve out to sea like last year,EXCEPT for those that get in the gom,New Orleans to NC coast line is the favored area for TC paths next 30-60days imo
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It's a lovely 70 degree Sunday morning in Sin City with a dewpoint of -16F and stiff breezes from the NE with total wall to wall sunshine!
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.
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142. TXCWC
The problem that all models are showing with the NW carribean development (since yesterday afternoon) is land interaction with the Yucatan. All show the beginnings of development but push the circulation back into land - even CMC and GFS ensemble means are showing this. The 0z CMC though appears to show redevelopment in the Bay of Campeche after crossing the pennisula. May also be a problem with competing vorticies - not uncommon with monsoonal situations as seen alot last year.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep by the way can you please post the link to the ensembles thanks I wanted to find a good one and the one you have will do thank again

Link
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Good morning all from Mobile! Does anybody want some rain? lol After a lull last night, the rain returned during the early morning. Some of these storms have been pretty intense..looks to be along, wet day as the GOM keeps sending storms our way.
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Here we go again...

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
There was some discussion going on about a possible cyclone off the US East Coast this week, I'd like to pick up on that. It appears the GFS, GFS ensembles and CMC have been persistently indicating the development of a low pressure area just off the North Carolina coast. At first glance, this might appear non-tropical but the phase diagrams tell a different story.

(GFS)

(CMC)

(GFS phase diagram)

It appears that the development will be sparked by the convection in the Gulf that has been causing all this rain and flooding along the Gulf Coast and is now currently moving overland. This could be a threat to develop this week. And also, I'd like to point out while the operational GFS is generally against development, the GFS ensembles do develop a cyclone in the Caribbean.

(GFS enesembles)

The tropics may not be as dead as they appear folks.

yep by the way can you please post the link to the ensembles thanks I wanted to find a good one and the one you have will do thank again
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
hey guys I just remembered why GFS is not properly showing forecasted TS Chris because it is just in GFSes nature to bring up storms near to the end of the run then pretty much kill it in the middle of the runs then bring it back up just before the storm forms and that is why I do not just rely on the GFS which by the way other models have jumped on board such as the CMC ECMWF NOGAP FIM to go with GFS and also its ensembles
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
Quoting BahaHurican:
I always find it rather amusing that our northern neighbours assume it never rains in the Caribbean... I wonder where they think the massive tropical vegetation comes from.... lol

But yeah, it's a real bummer to book a trip to Trinidad or the Bahamas and have it rain the whole time u r there...

I was looking at the one behind and wondering if that energy is expected to drift north and contribute to ATL formation later in the week...



The 2nd feature which is developing will likely become a hurricane. This is the one I am expecting to turn North due to a very strong trough moving across the Southern plains of the US this week. It has the potential of turning the system to the North, but would most likely affect Mexico and not cross into the Gulf. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the Yacatan and could develop into a strong system within a 7-10 time frame. (boy, I am on a roll this afternoon)
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Very much agreed, Teddy.

I'm seeing the drying out period we've been having in the WCar and SW ATL as the "calm before the next round of storms" type deal. I just hope any heavy rains can hold off until after this Friday. Lots of high school graduations this week in the Bahamas.
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The ECMWF has also begun picking up on this development off the US East Coast, but does not have a cyclone yet.
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I see that.
I have visitors from UK here.
They were hoping for some days of sunshine, shark&bake, etc....
Looks disappointing for them.
I always find it rather amusing that our northern neighbours assume it never rains in the Caribbean... I wonder where they think the massive tropical vegetation comes from.... lol

But yeah, it's a real bummer to book a trip to Trinidad or the Bahamas and have it rain the whole time u r there...

Quoting Grothar:


I would say we will have a depression with this by today, if not a TS. Looks like another one behind it is revving its engines, too!
I was looking at the one behind and wondering if that energy is expected to drift north and contribute to ATL formation later in the week...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There was some discussion going on about a possible cyclone off the US East Coast this week, I'd like to pick up on that. It appears the GFS, GFS ensembles and CMC have been persistently indicating the development of a low pressure area just off the North Carolina coast. At first glance, this might appear non-tropical but the phase diagrams tell a different story.

(GFS)

(CMC)

(GFS phase diagram)

It appears that the development will be sparked by the convection in the Gulf that has been causing all this rain and flooding along the Gulf Coast and is now currently moving overland. This could be a threat to develop this week. And also, I'd like to point out while the operational GFS is generally against development, the GFS ensembles do develop a cyclone in the Caribbean.

(GFS enesembles)

The tropics may not be as dead as they appear folks.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Good Mourning, it seems that 93E is organizing quickly and conditions are favorable for rapid development. However, its no thread to land at this point. In the meanwhile, some of the models aren't too high on developing Chris at the moment but lets see if it gain some momentum during the week.


Don't let the models fool you. Even though it looks quiet in the Caribbean right now, conditions look very favorable for some type of development in a few days.



Even though this is a little old, it is a good indicator of what conditions may be like next week.

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes Saw that earlier. Certainly got my attention. Only now the models have dropped the system except the GFS. Like he says there though it still looks like something will form. Guess we'll see.
If all the models had it, then drop it, I'd look out as that time period gets closer. I've noticed a pattern where 5-10 days before an event the models may drop the system they forecasted 10 - 14 days out, then pick it up again in the short range forecasts, with greater accuracy as to path.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Appears to be organizing though the circulation is still broad.


I would say we will have a depression with this by today, if not a TS. Looks like another one behind it is revving its engines, too!
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Models may not be for now, but remember it was a week away to begin with. Lets see if they jump onboard as the week progresses.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:

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Quoting Grothar:


Good Mourning, it seems that 93E is organizing quickly and conditions are favorable for rapid development. However, its no thread to land at this point. In the meanwhile, some of the models aren't too high on developing Chris at the moment but lets see if it gain some momentum during the week.
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Quoting Grothar:

Appears to be organizing though the circulation is still broad.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is that??


See comment 87.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
I have videos but I can't upload
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Wow the power is now out! Lots of flooding, and a caris in a ditch!
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Chris and Debby one going to N FL Link
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Percent chance we see Chris AND/OR Debby in June:
A.0-19
B.20-39
C.40-59
D.60 or greater
I say a cross between B and C


B,only Chris.
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B.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Percent chance we see Chris AND/OR Debby in June:
A.0-19
B.20-39
C.40-59
D.60 or greater
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
GOM
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 2042
Percent chance we see Chris AND/OR Debby in June:
A.0-19
B.20-39
C.40-59
D.60 or greater
I say a cross between B and C
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 2042
Pressure down to 1007 in 93E... We may see a TD this evening.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
What is that??
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.............good morning folks, warm and sunny here on the gulf coast, lakes are full and the grass is green and we are back into our normal weather pattern sunny,hot with a 30-40% chance of afternoon showers.......have a great day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the models aren't very enthusiastic about development today.

remember today day is the holy day I geuss the models decided to keep it holy too lol
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
models did not even see beryl properly until even alberto was not even noticed on the gfs something to note remember that models are not to be taken as a fact on timing of development
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Looks like the models aren't very enthusiastic about development today.
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Quoting pottery:

Hmmm,
I didn't realise that you had got so dry.
Strange start to The Season, for you.


We had in those first days of June a big sal passage that caused the mini incipient drought. The fires have increased in Southern PR.
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Quoting DDR:

I think i'll catch up,the models show some decent rains for us over the next week.bbl

Yeah, I see that.
I have visitors from UK here.
They were hoping for some days of sunshine, shark&bake, etc....
Looks disappointing for them.
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106. DDR
Quoting pottery:

OK.
But I have had an inch on Friday, and .5 again yesterday.
It's good though.

I think i'll catch up,the models show some decent rains for us over the next week.bbl
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning fellow Caribbean friends. Not a single drop of rain has fallen in San Juan on all June so far. Let's see if the Tropical Wave brings some. Also,maximun temperatures above the 90's since June 1 until yesterday.

Hmmm,
I didn't realise that you had got so dry.
Strange start to The Season, for you.
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Good morning fellow Caribbean friends. Not a single drop of rain has fallen in San Juan on all June so far. Let's see if the Tropical Wave brings some. Also maximun temperatures above the 90's since June 1 until yesterday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.