Torrential rain causes widespread flooding in Florida panhandle

By: Angela Fritz , 2:25 AM GMT on June 10, 2012

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Torrential rainfall led to widespread flooding along the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday, and Pensacola came about 2 inches shy of matching its all-time rainfall record for a calendar day: 15.29 inches. On Saturday, Pensacola airport received 13.13 inches of rain. The previous record was set on October 5, 1934, as Tropical Storm 9 of that year was making landfall. The record for any 24 hour period is 17.1 inches, spanning Octover 4-5 in 1934, according to Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt.

A state of emergency was declared for Florida's Escambia County. According to the AP:

Emergency shelters were opened at a few local schools for people who were urged to evacuate from low-lying areas, the newspaper reported. Thousands were without power. Neighboring Santa Rosa County had about 40 homes flooded.

Streets were flooded throughout Mobile, Ala., which got 5.79 inches of rain. County authorities warned residents to stay off the roads until the waters receded and workers could look for damage and downed utilities.


The rain has since ended for now in the Gulf states, but images and video of the aftermath are still pouring in. The area is expected to receive more rain on Sunday, which could last until the middle of next week, as thunderstorms fire along a stationary front which is draped across the coastal states.


Figure 1. Widespread, heavy rain washes onto the Gulf shores on Saturday, enhanced by a lingering stationary front that's draped across the region. The heaviest rain fell in Pensacola, Florida, which came 2 inches shy of breaking its all-time calendar day rainfall record.


Video: Downtown Pensacola still flooded this evening after the rain had stop. The city's airport received 13.13 inches of rain since midnight.

Angela

Pensacola, FL (Jebekarue)
South Fairfield Drive, north of Hwy 98.
Pensacola, FL
Pensacola Flooding (flwthrfan)
Pensacola
Pensacola Flooding
flood (megulfbreeze)
Out the front window as our house flooded
flood

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Getting hammered here in Pensacola again. Weather station only at 1 inch since midnight but got half an inch in the last 10 minutes. Lots of thunder and lightning.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey that is the tropical wave thats about to enter the E Carib area right?
central south tropical atlantic near 5.99n/33.33w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
12z GFS on the potential East Coast storm... Definitely a closed, tropical low but very weak... Probably a TD

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XXL

hey that is the tropical wave thats about to enter the E Carib area right?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


more flooding rains


This is nature's way of ending a drought.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

93E looks like a straight vertical line to me, lol... It had much better shape and banding earlier... The loop in comment 154 shows it well.

It was larger and broader earlier though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911


more flooding rains
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll likely be dealing with Tropical Depression Three-E this evening. Satellite imagery shows the invest continues to become better organized with more convective banding on the eastern side of the deepening low pressure area. It could use some more convection, and it is being sheared slightly, but conditions aren't unfavorable for further strengthening. I still believe that 93E will attain hurricane status and may make a run at Category 2 intensity.


93E looks like a straight vertical line to me, lol... It had much better shape and banding earlier... The loop in comment 154 shows it well.
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Quoting weatherbro:
Yesterday Mobile received over 15" of rain!
needaark
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increasing severe potential.........is it possible to rain harder than it has? With the long term outlook nothing but VERY wet for Florida this could be an epic season, even without more TS and hurricane landfalls in the state, which looks very likely. Good luck, God speed, and watch out for gators.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AL...FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101527Z - 101700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY
IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN THE
UPCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL PROGS IN SUGGESTING
THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY
MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING EAST OF MOBILE BAY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
LINE...ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST INLAND OF
THE COAST...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...COUPLED WITH MODESTLY
LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH DEGREE OF
SATURATION IN LOWER LEVELS...ALONG WITH SIZABLE CAPE. AND INLAND
ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
GEORGIA...AS A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SUBSTANTIVE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA
AND WESTERN GEORGIA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES COULD INCREASE...BOTH WITHIN THE LINE...AND IN A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD
OF IT.

..KERR/MEAD.. 06/10/2012

Noon again. High Noon?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll likely be dealing with Tropical Depression Three-E this evening. Satellite imagery shows the invest continues to become better organized with more convective banding on the eastern side of the deepening low pressure area. It could use some more convection, and it is being sheared slightly, but conditions aren't unfavorable for further strengthening. I still believe that 93E will attain hurricane status and may make a run at Category 2 intensity.



Could get up to Cat 3/4 at its peak
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It looks like the Atlantic will be the holder of the MJO once again. Notice below how the models show the MJO trying to leave but then it comes right back towards the Atlantic and meanders in Octant 1.




Very Interesting if the MJO comes in strong in the Atlantic basin and meanders a setup like 2005
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XX/AOI/XXL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting nofailsafe:


This system, while it's not tropical in nature, reminds me a lot of Allison from 2001. She wandered around for a few days dumping feet of rain on everyone, Houston missed the heavy blow this time though.
I think your right..and this is a wake up call to local governments when planning new drainage improvements what they need to plan for,15 inches of rain or more and what size pipes they need to install etc..the photos prove this weekend whatever drainage systems they have now are no good.
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We'll likely be dealing with Tropical Depression Three-E this evening. Satellite imagery shows the invest continues to become better organized with more convective banding on the eastern side of the deepening low pressure area. It could use some more convection, and it is being sheared slightly, but conditions aren't unfavorable for further strengthening. I still believe that 93E will attain hurricane status and may make a run at Category 2 intensity.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I have a strange feeling that this line is going to end up sitting over Pensacola...



This system, while it's not tropical in nature, reminds me a lot of Allison from 2001. She wandered around for a few days dumping feet of rain on everyone, Houston missed the heavy blow this time though.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
AXPZ20 KNHC 100930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES 1008 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N107W IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND IN A FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THE SYSTEM HAS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER WITH BANDS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FORMING WITHIN 240 NM NW AND SE.
NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR
09N91W TO 12N101W TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10N107W TO
07N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N124W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W...AND N
OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE E OF 120W...WITH A LOW
INTENSIFYING NEAR 10N107W AND ANOTHER LOW FORMING NEAR 09N91W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH MARKED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THE LOW NEAR 10N
107W...UNTIL THE 00Z MODEL RUN WHEN IT SHIFTED THE FOCUS FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST TO E OF 100W...AND WEAKENING THE WESTERN
LOW. THIS IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...BUT THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ALLOWING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CYCLO-
GENESIS TO OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF LOW
PRES AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WILL USE A BLEND OF GLOBAL MODELS FOR CONSENSUS FORECAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TO
AROUND 19N117W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 8-10 FT NNW
SWELL N OF 27N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 131W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 6-7 FT N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W.

$$
MUNDELL
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting weatherbro:
Yesterday Mobile received over 15' of rain!
simply amazing the amount of rain that fell and is still coming down..gee
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Yesterday Mobile received over 15" of rain!
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It looks like the Atlantic will be the holder of the MJO once again. Notice below how the models show the MJO trying to leave but then it comes right back towards the Atlantic and meanders in Octant 1.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 120610060000
2012061006
9.5 254.3
11.2 247.6
180
10.0 253.3
100900
1206100851
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 100900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 105.7W TO 11.2N 112.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 100830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 106.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 110900Z.
//
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
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Quoting hydrus:
Nice compact vortex with high pressure over it centered in the Yucatan Channel, far out, but interesting.


does that mean it will have a nice anticyclone on top of it
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with all the upwelling of the water in Gulf shores want that cool the waters down and be hard for tropical mischief to develop?
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So I'm thinking this season will be like 03 in a way where we have a fast start but activity begins to decline around late September and then shuts down in October.So I'm still going to say 15 named storms.And if we get "Chris" and "Debby" according to the models then the forecast may need to be upped.
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I feel like this may be considerably less colorful next week.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Probably a 50mph TS at most.



thats 50 mph too much
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3098
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Glad I'm not the only one who picked up on that... It can't become much more than a weak/moderate TS but I think it will develop.


Probably a 50mph TS at most.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, you guys along the northern Gulf coast are getting way too much rain all at once. Today is completely sunny here (so far) in Central FL. I have to admit that I enjoyed the weather of the past several days and the lake levels have come up noticeably.

Yeah. I have a lake in my yard. Came up to the bottom step last night. Just waitin'.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not quite, the NHC will want to wait at least until the afternoon for initialization.

10/1200 UTC 10.3N 108.2W T1.5/1.5 93E -- East Pacific


crap!
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Quoting MoldyinMS:
Rain,rain go away.........


Yeah, you guys along the northern Gulf coast are getting way too much rain all at once. Today is completely sunny here (so far) in Central FL. I have to admit that I enjoyed the weather of the past several days and the lake levels have come up noticeably.
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Quoting weatherh98:


You don't want this much now
Well can I have half of your 5 inches of rain.Which equals 2.5 inches.Yes that'll do.
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For some reason this has blotted out the sun...



And this looks vigorous enough to emerge onto the east coast and spin up later this week.

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I have a strange feeling that this line is going to end up sitting over Pensacola...

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Com and visit D.C again.(cus we really need it).


You don't want this much now
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Quoting MoldyinMS:
Rain,rain go away.........
Almost 5inches now
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Quoting MoldyinMS:
Rain,rain go away.........
Com and visit D.C again.(cus we really need it).
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Rain,rain go away.........
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Nice compact vortex with high pressure over it centered in the Yucatan Channel, far out, but interesting.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
This is what (no surprise) would trigger development off the US East Coast as it will be forced NE towards the East Coast over the week. There's already a low pressure with it.


Glad I'm not the only one who picked up on that... It can't become much more than a weak/moderate TS but I think it will develop.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that is a TD now...

you sure its not a cat 5 lol just joking
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that is a TD now...


Not quite, the NHC will want to wait at least until the afternoon for initialization.

10/1200 UTC 10.3N 108.2W T1.5/1.5 93E -- East Pacific
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93E looks less organized than earlier today...

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that is a TD now...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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