Spring 2012: most extreme season in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on June 08, 2012

Share this Blog
45
+

Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. With the warmest March, third warmest April, and second warmest May, the March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for spring 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Thirty-one states were record warm for the 3-month period, and an additional eleven states had top-ten warmth. Spring 2012 beat the previous record for hottest spring on record, set in 1910, by an remarkable 2°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

U.S. heat over the past 12 months: a one in half-a-million event
The U.S. record for hottest 12-month period fell for the second straight month in May. The June 2011 - May 2012 temperatures smashed the previous record by a startling 0.4°F, which is a huge margin to break a record by for a 1-year period. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Thirty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional ten states were top ten warm. Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.




Figure 2. Three of the top ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.




Figure 3. The average temperature during January - May 2012 was the warmest on record: 5°F above the 20th century average for the period, and 1.3°F above the previous record set in 2000. January - May temperatures have been rising at about 1.8°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Second warmest May, warmest year-to-date period on record
May 2012 was the second warmest May in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Twenty-six states had a top-ten warmest May, and no states had a top-ten coolest May. The January - May 2012 period was the warmest January - May period since record keeping began in 1895, with temperatures 5°F above the 20th century average for the period. This broke the previous record set in 2000 by an unusually large margin--1.3°F.



Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March - April - May) shows that 2012 had the most extreme spring on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Most extreme spring and January - May period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the spring March - April - May period. This is more than twice the average value, and spring 2012 was the most extreme season of any kind in U.S. history. A list of the top five most extreme seasons since 1910, as computed using the CEI, show that two of the three most extreme seasons in U.S. history occurred in the past 12 months:

Spring 2012: 44%
Winter 1979: 42%
Summer 2011: 39%
Fall 1985: 39%
Spring 1934: 38%

Remarkably, 81% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during spring 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during spring was 18%, which was the 19th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were the 8th largest on record. The year-to-date January - May period was also the most extreme such period in U.S. history, with a CEI of 43%. Climate change theory predicts that, in general, the climate should warm, wet areas should get wetter, and dry areas should get drier. The spring 2012 Climate Extremes Index reflects this pattern.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. None of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic through June 15.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1335 - 1285

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

1335. washingtonian115
2:33 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes. We usually get one every 2-3 years and we've not had one since 2007.

we're waaaaaaaay over due.Could this be the year?.It is 2012 after all...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17486
1334. BahaHurican
2:26 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In September 2010 we had Igor at nearly Category 5 intensity, Karl rapidly intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane, and Julia reaching its peak as a Category 4 hurricane.
Yah... good bloggin' days.... lol

Evening all.

Quoting windshear1993:
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm
Huh? By whom?

Quoting windshear1993:
omg i dont mean it like that im just sayin people dont talk about it as much as katrina or andrew and andrew happened 20 years ago
It might not get talked about as much as you expect, but I seriously doubt Mitch will ever be forgotten. I remember at the time thinking Georges was going to be the storm of the season - it was pretty bad - and then Mitch blew up. The storm that surpassed Mitch's death toll happened hundreds of years ago, during a time when hurricanes were practically mythological. IIRC, for a very long time a picture of Mitch was the iconic cyclone on the pages of several NOAA TC imagery archives.

People may not say much about Mitch, but I don't think it's because they have forgotten. Maybe, for some of us, it's because we remember better than we would like.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22583
1333. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:26 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1332. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:24 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
are wee overdue for a cat 5 hurricane?

Yes. We usually get one every 2-3 years and we've not had one since 2007.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
1331. windshear1993
2:21 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
are wee overdue for a cat 5 hurricane?
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
1330. Jedkins01
2:19 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not right. The NWS is only forecasting 4-8 more inches of rainfall in Escambia.

Gotta love the media though. Hypes everything.


Yeah, they won't get 20 to 30 inches, what they have had is already bad enough and the atmosphere will be somewhat worked over. It took all day to get thunderstorms going over Florida today for example, because days of overcast and periods of heavy rainfall sure did stabilize things...


I like the local weather here, they don't hype things.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7834
1329. Jedkins01
2:16 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Thanks for that explanation. Much of that stuff I had suspected but wasn't sure about since I am at the moment not as well versed with such storms as I could be.

As for your fascination with tropical weather, well that makes two of us. I am also considering graduate school after my undergrad and specializing in tropical, and FSU is very high on my list for that. Maybe we'll meet each other someday.



Maybe so! I will probably be starting meteorology at FSU this January.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7834
1328. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:10 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That doesn't sound right. I do not know where the NWS ever forecasted 12-15" of rainfall, even before this happened. I'm thinking that they took something out of context, like the forecast for the storm total for a particular area.

It's not right. The NWS is only forecasting 4-8 more inches of rainfall in Escambia.

Gotta love the media though. Hypes everything.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
1327. ScottLincoln
2:07 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
State of emergency in Escambia:

Several areas of Escambia County are being flooded this afternoon, prompting Escambia County officials to declare a state of emerency as of 3 p.m. today.

Here is the latest news from the county:

• The National Weather Service is forecasting and additional 12 to 15 inches of rainfall between now and midnight Sunday night. This makes the total projected rain fall for this event between 20 and 30 inches.

• Residents living in low-lying areas and areas prone to flooding are encouraged to evacuate.

• Escambia County Emergency Management has activated its Citizen Information Line. Residents can call (850) 471-6600 for information.

Link


That doesn't sound right. I do not know where the NWS ever forecasted 12-15" of rainfall, even before this happened. I'm thinking that they took something out of context, like the forecast for the storm total for a particular area.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3237
1326. washingtonian115
2:01 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
I know this isn't related to the topic...but is anyone else watching the Jersey Shore shark attack movie on Sci-Fi?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17486
1325. jeffs713
1:49 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane:
When the instability recovers, I'd be looking for more storm development near the Mouth of the Mississippi that would move northeast from there. PWs seem to be pooling up in that location and it seems that some fanning out is occurring around the 300 mb level.




That whole area is in a RRQ of a jet, which aids ventilation of storms that form. with PW that high... bad news if you don't want the rain.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
1324. Civicane49
1:46 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1323. TomTaylor
1:44 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:






And that's my one meme for the day.
Hahahah +1
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1322. MAweatherboy1
1:43 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Good night everyone... Probably the beginnings of a pinhole eye right here :)

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
1321. 1900hurricane
1:40 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
When the instability recovers, I'd be looking for more storm development near the Mouth of the Mississippi that would move northeast from there. PWs seem to be pooling up in that location and it seems that some fanning out is occurring around the 300 mb level.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
1320. Civicane49
1:40 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Poll: What will 93E peak as...

A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane

I say D 75mph.


I pick D.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1319. 1900hurricane
1:35 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:



This also applies to all convection of tropical nature whether shallow or tall. Even with much taller convective cells, you have a massive amount of water vapor near the lower quadrant of the cell, the farther up the warmer air extends and the higher the atmospheric moisture the more this process is intensified. As you might already know with tropical cyclones, they are quite shallow, however this is despite that convective cells frequently reach 45 to 55,000 ft near the core. Basically most of the "weather" in a tropical convective cell is near the lower quadrant, or should I say increases as you head toward the base. This is why reflectivity with tropical cyclones is ofen much less impressive than what it's like to actually experience. Often what appears to be moderate rain can actually be heavy convection with torrential downpours. I learned growing up around here that you better find an ark quick when you start seeing 50 TO 60 dbz in tropical cyclone rain bands. The opposite occurs with more "cold cored" convection. Often times the radar thinks it is heavier than it is due to more ice and lower mass of water vapor and liquid water falling to the ground.



I personally am extra intrigued with tropical weather, more so than "regular" weather. I'm thinking about continuing into graduate school as a focus on tropical meteorology at FSU after I finish my bachelors degree.





Thanks for that explanation. Much of that stuff I had suspected but wasn't sure about since I am at the moment not as well versed with such storms as I could be.

As for your fascination with tropical weather, well that makes two of us. I am also considering graduate school after my undergrad and specializing in tropical, and FSU is very high on my list for that. Maybe we'll meet each other someday.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
1318. WxGeekVA
1:34 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Poll: What will 93E peak as...

A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane

I say D 75mph.


E. I hope it becomes a Cat 5 monster and sets records. And I only do so because it isn't going to affect any land areas.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
1317. JLPR2
1:27 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In my non-professional, amateur opinion 93E needs to be given a red circle in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook soon. All of the global models make this a tropical storm within 24 hours and it is already technically very organized.

...Where did everybody run off to?



That is one pretty invest.
And I'm liking its track. Go 93E! XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1316. MAweatherboy1
1:25 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm going to say D. for me, but a major hurricane is definitely a possibility if it can take advantage of the absolute peak favorable conditions between 48-72 hours out. Heat content will be barely favorable for it to strengthen unusually rapid, but I could definitely see a Category 2 hurricane out of this (not that I showed that in my blog :P)

I read your blog! I was even nice enough to plus it :P
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
1315. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:22 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Poll: What will 93E peak as

A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane

I say D 75mph.

I'm going to say D. for me, but a major hurricane is definitely a possibility if it can take advantage of the absolute peak favorable conditions between 48-72 hours out. Heat content will be barely favorable for it to strengthen unusually rapid, but I could definitely see a Category 2 hurricane out of this (not that I showed that in my blog :P)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
1314. MAweatherboy1
1:20 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Poll: What will 93E peak as...

A. It won't develop further
B. Weak/Moderate TS
C. Strong TS
D. Cat 1/2 Hurricane
E. Major Hurricane

I say D 75mph.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
1313. windshear1993
1:16 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Not by some old friends nor the 10,000 dead families.if you come and say this in the place I am right now many would call you insensitive but to tell you the truth Fifi was worse in the north coast than Mitch was.Mitch was worse in Central Honduras in cities like Tegucigalpa. Fifi is a storm my family can`t forget my mom lost three cousins with her my grandma house was flooded.
oh sorry
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
1312. Jedkins01
1:12 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I don't know for sure (I don't have all of the tools nor the complete knowledge to verify), but I think the flooding that has plagued areas of the middle Gulf coast might have been caused by low echo centroid (LEC) storms. Such storms are characterized by warmer, lower topped convection, very high PWs in excess of 2.0 inches, and extreme rainfall totals. They are generally tropical in nature and most of the storms's reflectivity is below the freezing layer, which means they are exceptionally efficient rainmakers. Radar often has the tendency to underestimate their rainfall totals.

Warm Rain Processes and Low Echo Centroid Storms




This also applies to all convection of tropical nature whether shallow or tall. Even with much taller convective cells, you have a massive amount of water vapor near the lower quadrant of the cell, the farther up the warmer air extends and the higher the atmospheric moisture the more this process is intensified. As you might already know with tropical cyclones, they are quite shallow, however this is despite that convective cells frequently reach 45 to 55,000 ft near the core. Basically most of the "weather" in a tropical convective cell is near the lower quadrant, or should I say increases as you head toward the base. This is why reflectivity with tropical cyclones is ofen much less impressive than what it's like to actually experience. Often what appears to be moderate rain can actually be heavy convection with torrential downpours. I learned growing up around here that you better find an ark quick when you start seeing 50 TO 60 dbz in tropical cyclone rain bands. The opposite occurs with more "cold cored" convection. Often times the radar thinks it is heavier than it is due to more ice and lower mass of water vapor and liquid water falling to the ground.



I personally am extra intrigued with tropical weather, more so than "regular" weather. I'm thinking about continuing into graduate school as a focus on tropical meteorology at FSU after I finish my bachelors degree.




Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7834
1311. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:10 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
763

WHXX01 KMIA 100036

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0036 UTC SUN JUN 10 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932012) 20120610 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120610 0000 120610 1200 120611 0000 120611 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.5N 106.2W 9.9N 107.2W 10.5N 108.7W 11.2N 110.4W

BAMD 9.5N 106.2W 9.8N 108.4W 10.4N 110.8W 10.7N 113.3W

BAMM 9.5N 106.2W 9.7N 107.9W 10.1N 109.8W 10.6N 112.1W

LBAR 9.5N 106.2W 9.8N 108.4W 10.2N 110.9W 10.9N 114.0W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 53KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120612 0000 120613 0000 120614 0000 120615 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.0N 112.4W 13.3N 116.9W 13.7N 122.0W 12.1N 127.5W

BAMD 11.1N 115.7W 10.5N 120.2W 8.3N 123.8W 6.4N 125.6W

BAMM 11.0N 114.4W 11.1N 118.4W 10.1N 121.7W 8.7N 124.3W

LBAR 11.6N 117.5W 12.4N 123.9W 11.3N 128.3W 9.5N 126.2W

SHIP 65KTS 74KTS 79KTS 81KTS

DSHP 65KTS 74KTS 79KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 106.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 104.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 102.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1310. Jebekarue
1:07 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
posted pics of the flooding in Pcola on my photos on here. Will try to post more later. These were taken hours after the heaviest of the rain stopped. Hasn't rained in a while, we maxed out at our weather station at 13.97 although some got over 19 inches. More rain due later tonight and they are predicting a total of 20-30 inches through sunday night. With more to come the rest of the week, just hope we don't get Chris up here!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 236
1309. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:06 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
In my non-professional, amateur opinion 93E needs to be given a red circle in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook soon. All of the global models make this a tropical storm within 24 hours and it is already technically very organized.

...Where did everybody run off to?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
1308. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:58 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
I just made a blog entry, be sure to check it out!

Invest 93E forms in the East Pacific
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
1307. allancalderini
12:57 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Not by some old friends nor the 10,000 dead that family miss .if you come and say this in the place I am right now many would call you insensitive but to tell you the truth Fifi was worse in the north coast than Mitch was.Mitch was worse in Central Honduras in cities like Tegucigalpa. Fifi is a storm my family can`t forget my mom lost three cousins with her my grandma house was flooded.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4459
1306. AtHomeInTX
12:56 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting txjac:
Wow, kind of depressed that this rain even didnt come further west ...we need some rain here ...guess I realy should start watering the foundation again.

I was trying to stay positive that some of this would meander our way here to Houston


Sorry y'all didn't get any rains.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1305. windshear1993
12:55 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
Not by some old friends nor the 10,000 dead families.if you come and say this in the place I am right now many would call you insensitive but to tell you the truth Fifi was worse in the north coast than Mitch was.Mitch was worse in Central Honduras in cities like Tegucigalpa. Fifi is a storm my family can`t forget my mom lost three cousins with her my grandma house was flooded.
omg i dont mean it like that im just sayin people dont talk about it as much as katrina or andrew and andrew happened 20 years ago
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
1304. hydrus
12:54 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
but the death toll is unbearable and not many people talk about it today which is odd to me
The sad part to me is they will never really know what the final death toll was. I guess its irrelevant, it was a disaster of epic proportions and some say in 50 years from now the areas hit still will not have recovered.---WIKI..Formed October 22, 1998
Dissipated November 5, 1998
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
180 mph (285 km/h)
Lowest pressure 905 mbar (hPa); 26.72 inHg
Fatalities-- 19, 325
Damage $6.2 billion (1998 USD)
Areas affected Central America (particularly Hondurasand Nicaragua), Yucat%uFFFDn Peninsula, South Florida
Part of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Mitch was the most powerful hurricane and the most destructive of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h). The storm was the thirteenth tropical storm, ninth hurricane, and third major hurricane of the season. Along with Hurricane Georges, Mitch was the most notable hurricane in the season. At the time, Hurricane Mitch was the strongest Atlantic hurricane observed in the month of October, though it has since been surpassed by Hurricane Wilma of the 2005 season. The hurricane matched the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record (it has since dropped to seventh).

Mitch formed in the western Caribbean Sea on October 22, and after drifting through extremely favorable conditions, it rapidly strengthened to peak at Category 5 status, the highest possible rating on the Saffir%u2013Simpson Hurricane Scale. After drifting southwestward and weakening, the hurricane hit Honduras as a minimal hurricane. It drifted through Central America, reformed in the Bay of Campeche, and ultimately struck Florida as a strong tropical storm.

Due to its slow motion from October 29 to November 3, Hurricane Mitch dropped historic amounts of rainfall in Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, with unofficial reports of up to 75 inches (1,900 mm). Deaths due to catastrophic flooding made it the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane in history; nearly 11,000 people were killed with over 11,000 left missing by the end of 1998. Additionally, roughly 2.7 million were left homeless as a result of the hurricane. The flooding caused extreme damage, estimated at over $6 billion (1998 USD, $8.56 billion 2012 USD).This image shows the Casita volcano in western Nicaragua after a mudslide caused by Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998.
Date 15 December 1998
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21766
1303. AtHomeInTX
12:52 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
I hope the rain stops over there and everyone comes through the floods alright. Got some more of that fire rain around here. Looks like the smoke will be coming my way tomorrow.

OF NOTE FOR INTERESTS IN AND ALONG GALVESTON BAY...A WILDFIRE IN
EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMOKE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE BAY. AS THE SUN SETS THIS SMOKE WILL BEGIN TO
SETTLE AND COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTNING FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS SPARKED A WILDFIRE IN SOUTHEASTERN
CHAMBERS COUNTY. LATEST UPDATES FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS INDICATE
THIS FIRE MAY CONTINUE TO BURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SMOKE FROM THE FIRE WAS DRIVEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY...LOWERING
THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EARLIER IN THE MORNING IN GALVESTON BAY
AND GALVESTON ISLAND.

AS WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS SMOKE TO SETTLE CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE. THE STEERING WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO MORE TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

JUST ISSUED A SPS INCLUDING MORE DETAILS FOR THE GALVESTON BAY
AREA.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1302. allancalderini
12:51 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm
Not by some old friends nor the 10,000 dead families.if you come and say this in the place I am right now many would call you insensitive but to tell you the truth Fifi was worse in the north coast than Mitch was.Mitch was worse in Central Honduras in cities like Tegucigalpa. Fifi is a storm my family can`t forget my mom lost three cousins with her my grandma house was flooded.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4459
1301. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:51 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Invest 93E is no longer being classified as a disturbance. It has been redesignated as a low-pressure area. Winds and pressure are unchanged.

EP, 93, 2012061000, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1062W, 25, 1008, LO
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
1300. windshear1993
12:48 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Not by me.. I thought Mitch was finished, then it came and hit us in South Florida...
but the death toll is unbearable and not many people talk about it today which is odd to me
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
1299. txjac
12:45 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Wow, kind of depressed that this rain even didnt come further west ...we need some rain here ...guess I realy should start watering the foundation again.

I was trying to stay positive that some of this would meander our way here to Houston
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2569
1298. hydrus
12:41 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm
Not by me.. I thought Mitch was finished, then it came and hit us in South Florida...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21766
1297. stormpetrol
12:36 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm


I understand where you are coming from, 1000s of lives lost in Honduras and other countries in CA, I have never forgotten Mitch, for days he was our fearful neighbor about 150-190 miles to our SW nearly stationary, not sure where he might have went next!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8024
1296. hydrus
12:35 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
The NAM has a secondary low near the panhandle in 84 hours.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21766
1295. windshear1993
12:27 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
hurricane mitch was a forgotten storm
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
1294. TXCWC
12:25 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS does this time develop a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean in 174 hours, but I cannot understand for the life of me why it is so adamant on splitting the system in half.


It developed it on the 12z run as well...what GFS is NOW doing however (12z and now 18z)is running the developing circulation into the Yucatan because of high pressure ridging moving in from the North and East (the 12z Euro actually did this as well today but does not run it back into the Yucatan because of where it initializes storm development). While not an expert I believe it is the land interaction seen on todays runs that is causing the split.
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
1293. washingtonian115
12:22 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:






And that's my one meme for the day.
I watched that episode not to long ago.lol.Anywho I'm thinking Debby is a nice bet to since some of the model runs have been showing two storms.Off and on though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17486
1292. 1900hurricane
12:21 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Luckily for the flooded areas, it appears the upstream storms are weakening at the moment. Looks like the atmosphere needs some time to recharge.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
1291. Civicane49
12:19 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Great work.


Thank you!
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1290. KennyNebraska
12:18 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting lightning75:


DOOM:CON and DEFCON are different messures



Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
1289. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:15 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Dozens of photos of flooding etc. in Santa Rosa and Escambia counties....

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Site=DP& Date=20120609&Category=NEWS01&ArtNo=206090801&Ref= PH
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6065
1288. WxGeekVA
12:14 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS 300 hours



Quoting washingtonian115:
Ha ha.




And that's my one meme for the day.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
1287. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:14 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting Civicane49:
I've made a blog entry regarding on Invest 93E and the potential Atlantic development.

Great work.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
1286. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:11 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:


Missing years found.

Something's happening here....

It's a conspiracy!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
1285. BobWallace
12:10 AM GMT on June 10, 2012


Missing years found.

Something's happening here....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344

Viewing: 1335 - 1285

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
59 °F
Overcast