Hottest rain on record? Rain falls at 109°F in Saudi Arabia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:24 AM GMT on June 07, 2012

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Pilgrims to the holy city of Mekkah (Mecca), Saudi Arabia must have been astonished on Tuesday afternoon, June 5, when the weather transformed from widespread dust with a temperature of 113°F (45°C) to a thunderstorm with rain. Remarkably, the air temperature during the thunderstorm was a sizzling 109°F (43°C), and the relative humidity a scant 18%. It is exceedingly rare to get rain when the temperature rises above 100°F, since those kind of temperatures usually require a high pressure system with sinking air that discourages rainfall. However, on June 4, a sea breeze formed along the shores of the Red Sea, and pushed inland 45 miles (71 km) to Mekkah by mid-afternoon. Moist air flowing eastwards from the Red Sea hit the boundary of the sea breeze and was forced upwards, creating rain-bearing thunderstorms. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the highest known temperature that rain has fallen at, anywhere in the world. He knows of one other case where rain occurred at 109°F (43°C): in Marrakech, Morocco on July 10, 2010. A thunderstorm that began at 5 pm local time brought rain at a remarkably low humidity of 14%, cooling the temperature down to 91°F within an hour.



Figure 1. Thunderstorms at 109°F? This true-color satellite image of Saudi Arabia taken at 2:10 pm local time (11:10 UTC) on June 5, 2012, shows a line of thunderstorms that developed along the edge of the sea breeze from the Red Sea. Three hours after this image was taken, Mekkah (Mecca) recorded a thunderstorm with rain and a temperature of 109°F (43°C.) Image credit: NASA.

More like a hot shower than a cooling rain?
Thunderstorms often produce big drops of cold rain, since these raindrops form several thousand meters high in the atmosphere, where temperatures are much cooler than near the surface. Some drops even get their start as snow or ice particles, which melt on the way to the surface. Additional cooling of the drops occurs due to evaporation on the way down. However, in the case of the June 4, 2012 Mekkah storm, I think the rain was probably more like a hot shower. Large raindrops, like the kind thunderstorms produce, fall at a speed of about 10 meters per second. A balloon sounding of the upper atmosphere taken at 3 pm local time at a nearby station (Al-Midinah) found that the bottom 1000 meters of the atmosphere was 97°F (36°C) or warmer. Thus, the thunderstorms' raindrops would have been subjected to 100 seconds of some very hot air on the way to the surface, likely warming them above 100°F by the time they hit the ground. A classic 1948 study of raindrops found that, in many cases, raindrop temperatures start off cold in the first few minutes of a rain shower, then warm up to within 1°C (1.8°F) of the air temperature within a few minutes. With the air temperature a sizzling 109°F (43°C) at the time of the June 4 thunderstorm in Mekkah, the raindrops could easily have been heated to a temperature of over 105°F (41°C) by the time they reached the surface!

How hot can it be and still rain?
If substantial amounts of liquid water are present on the Earth, the planet will experience rain, as long as some mechanism to lift the warm, moist air and cause condensation can be found. If the climate continues to warm as expected, we should see an increasing number of cases where it rains at temperatures well above 100°F. On Saturday, June 2, the temperature in Mekkah hit 51.4°C (124.5°F), a new record for the city, and just 1.1°F (0.6°C) below the all-time hottest temperature record for Saudi Arabia (125.6°F, or 52°C, recorded at Jeddah on June 22, 2010.) I expect that 20 - 40 years from now, we'll begin seeing occasional cases where rain falls at a temperature above 117°F (47°C) in the desert regions of North Africa and the Middle East.

I'll have a new post by Friday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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382. cg2916
11:28 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting wxhatt:
True, it's going to be a close call, depending on when it takes hold. It could be a close call to the peak period.

Link

7 June 2012

ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch


Synopsis: There is a 50% chance that El Nino conditions will develop during the second half of 2012.


It'll still take a few months for the effects to "roll around".
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
381. washingtonian115
11:19 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

True statement.
From the mid-west to the east you were effected in some way shape or form by a storm(hey that rhymed).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17848
380. wxhatt
11:19 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In all seriousness, 2004 is becoming a better and better analogue by the week. Instead of a tradition El Niño, we could have a Modoki. We could see more major hurricanes this year, and more storms in general forming close to land.

I could see 14-16 named storms. Nothing higher though.


I'm looking in close this year for that potential also.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
379. WxGeekVA
11:16 PM GMT on June 07, 2012


Denver area storm
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
378. wxhatt
11:16 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Transitional years still worry me. Still can get a major landfalling hurricane.



Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
377. Hurricane1216
11:16 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Funnel cloud detected near Cheyenne - photo courtesy of Dominator crew (Reed Timmer)
Link
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 317
376. HurricaneDean07
11:14 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
My brain is exploding!.We in the U.S do not like 04...

True statement.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
375. weatherh98
11:12 PM GMT on June 07, 2012



i wonder where the cold front is?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
374. washingtonian115
11:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In all seriousness, 2004 is becoming a better and better analogue by the week. Instead of a tradition El Niño, we could have a Modoki. We could see more major hurricanes this year, and more storms in general forming close to land.

I could see 14-16 named storms. Nothing higher though.
My brain is exploding!.We in the U.S do not like 04...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17848
373. PlazaRed
11:06 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Evening Everybody.
I just ducked in to get out of the heat.
This heat/rain stuff is very interesting to me as it indicated that as temps rise to unimaginable levels a few years ago! We will maybe be getting rain in deserts along with rain on Greenland's ice cap and rain probably at the Olympics?
Thanks for the post, most interesting and a line from it:-

"According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the highest known temperature that rain has fallen at, anywhere in the world. He knows of one other case where rain occurred at 109°F (43°C): in Marrakech, Morocco on July 10, 2010,"

Interesting to note that in the last 200 or so years that humans have been recording weather things there are only 2 cases of rain falling at high temps of 109/F. Welcome to the next phase of aquatic/inundation, awareness!
Having stumbled through that lot, its been hot in southern Europe with temps in the Seville area around 40?C which is over the 100/F. We might just get a summer record temp here this year. I recorded 127?F in the shade, "unofficially of course," just north of Gibraltar in 2004.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2191
372. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
In all seriousness, 2004 is becoming a better and better analogue by the week. Instead of a tradition El Niño, we could have a Modoki. We could see more major hurricanes this year, and more storms in general forming close to land.

I could see 14-16 named storms. Nothing higher though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
371. wxhatt
11:01 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
"EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE
ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012
We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity
compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled
over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this
summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major
hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall
to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season,
regardless of how much activity is predicted. "
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
370. ProgressivePulse
11:01 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

With all the complications this hurricane season, it wouldn't surprise me to see 2 named storms or 20.


Really, lol. Conditions otherwise look quite favorable.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THURSDAY MAY 17 2012


ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FOR JAS AND ASO 2012 ARE RELATED TO DECADAL TRENDS. THE POSSIBLE PERSISTENCE OF
ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS IS ALSO A
FACTOR.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EVENTUAL ENSO PHASE (AND STRENGTH) INTO THE AUTUMN OF
2012 AND LACK OF STRONG SIGNALS FROM MOST OF THE FORECAST TOOLS, IT WAS DECIDED
TO INDICATE EC FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE OND 2012 AND NDJ 2012-2013 SEASONS AT THE
CURRENT TIME. THE ADDITION OF AREAS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN SEASONAL TOTAL
PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS IN THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST WERE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED DUE TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO. THESE AREAS MAY BE ADDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST RELEASES AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO SUMMER 2012. BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION RELATED TO TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING DJF 2012-2013
AND JFM 2013 WHICH APPEARED IN FORECASTS FROM PRIOR MONTHS WERE REMOVED DUE TO
POTENTIAL EL NINO DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
369. weatherh98
10:59 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tornado is through Slater.

Going to wait another frame or two before yelling debris ball.



check to see if its meteoric or not... i heard you cando that now
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
368. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:58 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Going to be real close. Possible development of a Modoki El Nino could further complicate things. Atmospheric lag could push the Nino into the "Insignificant" category.


With all the complications this hurricane season, it wouldn't surprise me to see 2 named storms or 20.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
367. ProgressivePulse
10:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Going to be real close. Possible development of a Modoki El Nino could further complicate things. Atmospheric lag could push the Nino into the "Insignificant" category.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
366. Hurricane1216
10:53 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
TVNWeather - location of storm chasers currently chasing Wyoming tornadoes. Stream from the chase vehicles not working but you can see their current position and heading.
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 317
365. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:52 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


hey he had a tv show!

Yeah!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
364. weatherh98
10:51 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is what that supercell produced. Intercepted by Reed Timmer.



hey he had a tv show!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
363. wxhatt
10:48 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
"there remains uncertainty as to whether ENSO-neutral or El Niño will prevail during the second half of the year. The evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts (Fig. 6), suggest that ENSO-neutral and El Niño are roughly equally likely during the late northern summer and fall. The CPC/IRI forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through JAS, followed by an approximately 50% likelihood for El Niño during the remainder of the year."



Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
362. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:45 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
361. wxhatt
10:44 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
True, it's going to be a close call, depending on when it takes hold. It could be a close call to the peak period.

Link

7 June 2012

ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch


Synopsis: There is a 50% chance that El Nino conditions will develop during the second half of 2012.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
360. Hurricane1216
10:40 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
New mesoscale discussion (1095) issued for SW South Dakota:
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 317
359. washingtonian115
10:39 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting wxhatt:


Exactly, it's not out of the question. Again I want to look at analog years for the transition to el nino, but it reminds me of similar early pattern and then the shear should quell activity during the peak of hurricane season. But mark my word, people are going to go bonkers, if they see C and D prior to mid july, and they shouldn't.
I think the season will shut down in October.not in September.Especially if the El nino forms in August.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17848
358. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:37 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Significant structural damage and numerous injuries are being reported in Platte county, Wyoming.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
357. wxhatt
10:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Instability has been running high.And those sst and TCHP are high.Now if shear were to relax then we could be talking about 4 storms in the June-July period..


Exactly, it's not out of the question. Again I want to look at analog years for the transition to el nino, but it reminds me of similar early pattern and then the shear should quell activity during the peak of hurricane season. But mark my word, people are going to go bonkers, if they see C and D prior to mid july, and they shouldn't.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
356. wxhatt
10:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
But then again if that happens, people will be prematurely screaming another 2005 season. LOL
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
355. washingtonian115
10:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting wxhatt:


I wouldn't be surprised to see another pulse, so to speak. I need to look back at the analogs. But if I remember correctly, the last time we were coming out of of a la nina and into the el nino phase there was an early season uptick in Tropical Cyclone Development.
Instability has been running high.And those sst and TCHP are high.Now if shear were to relax then we could be talking about 4 storms in the June-July period..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17848
354. Hurricane1216
10:29 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Tornado off the ground... rotation remains strong.
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 317
353. wxhatt
10:28 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even though the models are going wild and can't make up their mind I think we could squeeze out Chris.Debby on that run...I just don't see it happening..but then again this hurricane season has been strange.


I wouldn't be surprised to see another pulse, so to speak. I need to look back at the analogs. But if I remember correctly, the last time we were coming out of of a la nina and into the el nino phase there was an early season uptick in Tropical Cyclone Development.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
352. Hurricane1216
10:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is what that supercell produced. Intercepted by Reed Timmer.



Go Reed!
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 317
351. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:23 PM GMT on June 07, 2012
This is what that supercell produced. Intercepted by Reed Timmer.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Quoting wxhatt:


Looks to be about 2 weeks out.

The Euro is also sniffing out some
Even though the models are going wild and can't make up their mind I think we could squeeze out Chris.Debby on that run...I just don't see it happening..but then again this hurricane season has been strange.

349.Well the Atlantic was tired of being showed up by the other basins so it wants to feel important.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17848
Quoting MississippiWx:


I wouldn't doubt it...the MJO has been hanging around the Atlantic/Caribbean side a lot this year.

That's because the Atlantic [amazingly] continues to hold the most heat and energy in the world.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
I mean if this western atlantic ridging holds over top during that time frame, we could see some development.
\
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Quoting RussianWinter:


How far out is that?


Looks to be about 2 weeks out.

The Euro is also sniffing out some
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Yeah, that's not a debris ball. Latest radar frame has the circulation falling apart as well.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Slater's a community with not too many structures, but a debris ball is always possible.
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 317
Tornado is through Slater.

Going to wait another frame or two before yelling debris ball.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That is, for some reason, from June 4. Here is today's..You probably already know, but GEFS is the one to look at. Much stronger signal in the Atlantic.



I wouldn't doubt it...the MJO has been hanging around the Atlantic/Caribbean side a lot this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
It's alright I was just in a bad mood last night, haven't been getting a lot of sleep
Quoting MississippiWx:


I think he's much better at recognizing patterns and changes in the climate than forecasting strength of storms. There's quite a difference in those two skills. When it comes to pattern recognition, Bastardi is very good.
I agree that he's very good with patterns.He was spot on about the Mid-Atlantic winter of 09-10 be a very cold and snowy one.And the following summer would be hot.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17848
Quoting wxhatt:
Actually sees some cyclogenesis the the Atlantic and the Gulf.



How far out is that?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is new invest 90W well SE of Guam.

wow, that looks to have great outflow in all quadrants...
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The tornado is now moving through Slater, WY.

There have been reports of structural damage with the tornado already.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
The rains came with fury this afternoon. Distant thunder, no lightning, no wind. Just a heavy downpour. Took this pic about an hour ago. The majority fell between 2:30 and 4pm EDT. It is still raining. Should be approaching 5" now.

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Actually sees some cyclogenesis the the Atlantic and the Gulf.

Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930


Absolutely pouring right now. The sea breeze is firing up storms here in Harris county.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


The town of Slater is about to have a sitchiation....

Yep.

The signature on radar has weakened slightly, but the storm itself is still likely producing a tornado.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's the propagation chart. In other words, if weather was just straight forward and there were no variables, that would be the propagation. This is the actual forecast from the GFS:



There's a very weak MJO pulse in the Western Caribbean in about a week, as you said, but it's much weaker than the chart you were showing. Most of the upward motion remains in the Western Pacific through the forecast. Of course, MJO forecasts change day to day.



Yes, the GFS is indicating there will be some weak upward motion in general area. The key is how the upper dynamics play out at that time. If there is too much shear it will fail to initiate TCD.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 930
Huge phytoplankton bloom found under Arctic ice

Nature News Blog

I don't brake for trolls!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


That's the propagation chart. In other words, if weather was just straight forward and there were no variables, that would be the propagation. This is the actual forecast from the GFS:



There's a very weak MJO pulse in the Western Caribbean in about a week, as you said, but it's much weaker than the chart you were showing. Most of the upward motion remains in the Western Pacific through the forecast. Of course, MJO forecasts change day to day.


That is, for some reason, from June 4. Here is today's..You probably already know, but GEFS is the one to look at. Much stronger signal in the Atlantic.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32865

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