Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting etxwx:


There appears to be an alien shield over my part of East Texas (Northern Jasper County)...rain within a quarter mile of my house and nadda...
*head desk* *head desk*

Hang in there. Looks like they're breaking up before hitting Orange County too. :)

Had a 27mph gust here.

Quoting reedzone:


I didn't expect low wind shear to move in that area.. but according to the CIMMS map, wind shear is just under 20 knots where the broad circulation is...

I've been following the shear tendency closely the past few day. It seems the Caribbean and Gulf are staying pretty strong. That shear will have to die down before anything can develop.

Tornado Watch 361 remains valid until 9 PM MDT this evening for
the following areas

In Colorado this watch includes 10 counties

In east central Colorado

Elbert

In northeast Colorado

Adams Arapahoe Broomfield
Denver Douglas Logan
Morgan Washington Weld

This includes the cities of... Akron... Aurora... Broomfield...
brush... Castle Rock... Denver... Elizabeth... Fort Morgan...
Greeley... Highlands Ranch... Northglenn... Otis... Parker...
Ponderosa Park... Sterling... Thornton and Westminster.

Idk if anyone posted this yet so sorry if u did

Quoting hydrus:
What I meant was, Venus is 7520 miles in diameter, Jupiter is just under 89,000. That would mean you could put 11 Venuses side by side, and it still would not be as wide as Jupiter. Venus is looking way to large.

But if Venus is, say, four times closer to the observer (you) at the time of transit than is Jupiter, its apparent diameter would exaggerated by four, making it appear to be roughly one-third the diameter of Jupiter--as the conceptual image shows.

Quoting Grothar:


I've been following the shear tendency closely the past few day. It seems the Caribbean and Gulf are staying pretty strong. That shear will have to die down before anything can develop.

I know, wasn't saying it was gonna get interesting, but there is a patch of wind shear under 20 knots over the circulation, that patch would have to expand some more in order for something "interesting" to happen.

Quoting LargoFl:
i wonder what tomorrow is going to bring us. they say its going to be a wash out here

I've seen rain chances as high as 90%. This afternoon I drove from Lakeland to palm harbor and drove through some serious rain in hillsborough county. The wind was quite gusty too.

We still have a chance of rain just not as high as it was...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KLCH SOUNDING INDICATED THAT WHEN MODIFIED
TO A SURFACE T/TD OF 92/70 THE CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 3K J/KG.
THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE WEAK
CAP BROKE. THESE STORMS WILL BE AROUND THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND START TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.


A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM SE GA TO SE TX. AN UPPER LVL LOW IS
ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
TO POOL ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.7-1.9
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT COOLING
OF THE MID LVLS. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF WILL ALSO
DRIFT NORTH OVER THE THE NEXT FEW DAYS ADDING TO THE MOISTURE
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK... THEREFORE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL
DEPART THE AREA LATER SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW

Quoting reedzone:


I know, wasn't saying it was gonna get interesting, but there is a patch of wind shear under 20 knots over the circulation, that patch would have to expand some more in order for something "interesting" to happen.

Well, the experts still expect some development. So in a few days we will have to see. The shear tendency is to increase by tomorrow and the long range even more.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hang in there. Looks like they're breaking up before hitting Orange County too. :)

they need to come to Houston!!!!!!!!!

Scratch this post. Wasn't thinking straight when comparing Mars and Venus.

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


they need to come to Houston!!!!!!!!!

Lynard Skynard will come to Houston before these storms do.

Get over it, and go water the lawn. I was so hoping not to have to water again today! :(

Statement as of 4:21 PM CDT on June 06, 2012

... Significant weather advisory for Hardin... Jasper... Newton...
Tyler... Jefferson and Orange counties... significant weather advisory
for Beauregard... Allen... Acadia... Calcasieu... Jefferson Davis...
Vermilion and Cameron parishes until 515 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of strong thunderstorms from near Lake Arthur through Lake
Charles and Orange to near Jasper. The line was nearly stationary.

The primary threats from these storms are continuous lightning and
pea to nickel size hail. Seek shelter in a safe home or building
until these storms have passed.

These storms could produce rainfall amounts of one to two inches in a
short period of time... resulting in ponding of water around low lying
roadways. Remember... do not drive your vehicle into water covered
roadways. The depth may be too great to allow a safe crossing.

Quoting redwagon:

Lynard Skynard will come to Houston before these storms do.

Get over it, and go water the lawn. I was so hoping not to have to water again today! :(

Lol

Quoting Grothar:


Well, the experts still expect some development. So in a few days we will have to see. The shear tendency is to increase by tomorrow and the long range even more.

well this expert would say looks like a whole lotta nuttin for GOM/BOC area now

Earth transit...
for observers on a sweet spot like Mars, the sight could be amazing. Fundamentally, it would look like a scaled-down version of a transit of Venus, but what could make it extra interesting is the presence of our inordinately big Moon. The fifth largest satellite in the solar system, the Moon's diameter (2,160 miles) is more than a quarter the size of Earth's.

http://blogs.plos.org/retort/2012/06/05/transits- of-earth-from-other-planets-2/

looks like rain for fla ne gulf coast

Cooking out here, heat index 108 with dewpoint of 77 according to WunderMap app on my Iphone

Even the dove laying on her nest in the gutter in the back yard looking at me in distress

Quoting Skyepony:
Had a 27mph gust here.

nastyheretoo

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
That's weird. At my house in Odessa, I haven't recorded any gust over 10mph lol.

I am in New Port Richey, and the highest gust we had was 26, at 10:45am.....the tree that fell up in Hudson is 9 miles N of me.....I would say very narrow window with the high winds....and also, I have not had any significant precip since this morning.

Quoting hydrus:
What I meant was, Venus is 7520 miles in diameter, Jupiter is just under 89,000. That would mean you could put 11 Venuses side by side, and it still would not be as wide as Jupiter. Venus is looking way to large.

That image is to scale.

While Venus is obviously is not that large compared to Jupiter, one must remember that Venus is closer and comparably larger than it would be to Jupiter.

Think of putting a penny about a thumbs length away from you then a quarter and arms length away from you and lay down your stomach and look directly at the penny then the quarter - the penny would appear as large as the quarter.

Perspective, basically is what the image is showing.

Sorry, Some1has2BtheRookie, I crosswired my own thinking when comparing Mars and Venus: ie compared 2 extraordinary-in-opposite-ways cases of Jupiter transit rather than all possibilities.
So 1261 has been deleted

E X P A N S I O N.. two days ago there wasnt even a hint of yellow in the GOM on the 850 mb map

Quoting RitaEvac:
Even the dove laying on her nest in the gutter in the back yard looking at me in distress

You're just going to go have to water the dove.

now mind you..this is 96 hours out..(I feel I have to put a disclaimor up now every time I post a model run)

12z CMC

Quoting RitaEvac:
Even the dove laying on her nest in the gutter in the back yard looking at me in distress

99 here and still humid, not a cloud in the sky, Oak Hill in West Austin has 104 with Heat index of 111. Just think only 3 more months of this. :)

Looks like a Texas/Louisiana storm coming up...

Quoting CybrTeddy:


That image is to scale.

While Venus is obviously is not that large compared to Jupiter, one must remember that Venus is closer and comparably larger than it would be to Jupiter.

Think of putting a penny about a thumbs length away from you then a quarter and arms length away from you and lay down your stomach and look directly at the penny then the quarter - the penny would appear as large as the quarter.

Perspective, basically is what the image is showing.

I understand now....If today was a fish, I would throw it back..:)

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

i will be 124 then may not see too well but i will try and stop by for a peek

And TX burns up on the dry side, typical

Quoting Stormchaser121:
Looks like a Texas/Louisiana storm coming up...

Worst situation for TX, Nada drop of rain

Quoting Neapolitan:
But if Venus is, say, four times closer to the observer (you) at the time of transit than is Jupiter, its apparent diameter would exaggerated by four, making it appear to be roughly one-third the diameter of Jupiter--as the conceptual image shows.

Thanks..I am laughing at myself right now...Normally I would have caught that..I,m really offing a have day..:)

Quoting RitaEvac:


Worst situation for TX, Nada drop of rain

That kind of storm brings Hotter and dryer air into Texas, hope it doesnt form

Vorticy circulation still ESE of Brownsville, south of Lake Charles, LA in west central gulf

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That kind of storm brings Hotter and dryer air into Texas, hope it doesnt form

Be like Lee of last year, just fanned the fires more and drier air was filtered in along with more heat

lots of sea breeze and lake breeze action today and tommorow as well summer pattern taking hold now

Quoting CybrTeddy:


That image is to scale.

While Venus is obviously is not that large compared to Jupiter, one must remember that Venus is closer and comparably larger than it would be to Jupiter.

Think of putting a penny about a thumbs length away from you then a quarter and arms length away from you and lay down your stomach and look directly at the penny then the quarter - the penny would appear as large as the quarter.

Perspective, basically is what the image is showing.

So that explains why my neighbors on the end of my street look so small and my neighbors next door look so big.

Quoting Stormchaser121:
Looks like a Texas/Louisiana storm coming up...

Is this an indication of DOOM?!?!

Quoting RitaEvac:


Be like Lee of last year, just fanned the fires more and drier air was filtered in along with more heat

Lee took me from highs around 100 to 105.

NHC

img src="THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE REPRESENTED AS A PAIR OF NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHS ANALYZED FROM 27N86W TO 24N89W...AND 25N91W TO 20N95W RESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTION IS SHOWN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 90W-95W...AND FROM 23N-28N E OF 90W. MARINE OBS FROM BUOYS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM SURFACE CYCLONIC CURVATURE CAN BE SEEN FROM SATELLITE VIEW ON BOTH FEATURES...THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DRIVEN BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.">

Some nasty storms near Cheyenne.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Be like Lee of last year, just fanned the fires more and drier air was filtered in along with more heat

Hopefully it will give us some rain

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Is this an indication of DOOM?!?!

Maybe....Looks like its right on the border of TX/LA

Just took the dogs out for their walk here in Ponce Inlet, FL and, of course, it started raining cats and "dog!" Figures. Has rained off and on all day..

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Lee took me from highs around 100 to 105.

This is the biggest forecast bust I've ever witnessed.

Almost like a practical joke.

Quoting Grothar:
A lot of people don't know Uranus has a series of rings around it like Saturn

Jupiter and Neptune do as well, though not as impressive as Saturn's.

Are these storms even moving??

I can't help but comment...I lived in central TX for almost 30 years...had a boat in the marina on the lake...never knew from one year to the next whether we could walk down to the marina from the parking lot normally, or whether we would need the john boat to get to the boat dock (as it was flooded) or if we would just pay slip rent to not have access to our boats that were in slips where the docks were pulled way out into the lake( due to drought). From my memory (not a table of stats) Texas has always had massive fluctuations in rainfall from year to year, and it was just something that we dealt with...nothing new about that....