Rick Knabb takes over as director of NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:56 PM GMT on June 04, 2012

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Today marks the first day of work for the National Hurricane Center's new director--Dr. Rick Knabb, who worked at NHC from 2005 - 2008 as a senior hurricane forecaster before leaving in 2008 to take a position as deputy director and director of operations of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and NWS Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii. Dr. Knabb left Hawaii to take a position as The Weather Channel's hurricane expert in 2010, where he worked until May of this year. He thus brings a unique mix of NHC experience, managerial experience, and experience communicating to the public on-camera, to the NHC director's job. He will fit in very comfortably with the NHC staff, and should make an excellent NHC director. Knabb, 43, is the second youngest director of NHC. Only Neil Frank, who served as director from 1973 - 1987, was younger at the time he took the job.

Dr. Knabb takes over the directorship of NHC from Bill Read. Read took the post of NHC director in 2008 after Bill Proenza stepped down following a stormy six-month tenure where much of staff revolted against him. In the wake of the turmoil stirred up by Proenza, Read brought stability to the Hurricane Center. Read's management ability, easy-going style, and solid communication skills made Read an excellent choice for director of NHC, and he will be missed. “I will have been in charge just shy of four and a half years on June 1,” Read wrote in a letter to hurricane center staff earlier this year. “I had no idea I would ever be considered for such an honor. It’s been quite a ride and I’m blessed to hit the exit ramp in my career after working with you all.” Read was lucky enough in his four-year tenure at NHC to never oversee a landfalling major hurricane in the U.S.

National Hurricane Center Directors:
Gordon Dunn, 1965 - 1967
Robert Simpson, 1967 - 1973
Neil Frank, 1973 - 1987
Bob Sheets, 1987 - 1995
Robert Burpee, 1995 - 1997
Jerry Jarrell, 1998 - 2000
Max Mayfield, 2000 - 2007
Bill Proenza, January - July, 2007
Ed Rappaport (interim), July 2007 - January 2008
Bill Read, 2008 - 2012
Rick Knabb, 2012 - ????

It looks like Dr. Knabb will have a quiet first week on the job--there are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


It looks like a cataract surgery, What is it?
its the sun i guess SDO site is having some issues with the scope

here is another shot

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Quoting nigel20:

It's 11:49PM in Jamaica, so it's not very late and my birthday will be in a few minutes


Happy Birthday Nigel. :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i hope this is a glitch


What does that Sun satellite take mean?
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Still showing this but loses it before landfall.

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Quoting nigel20:

It's 11:49PM in Jamaica, so it's not very late and my birthday will be in a few minutes


Oh, I keep forgetting you are an hour behind us.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i hope this is a glitch


It looks like a cataract surgery, What is it?
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Quoting Grothar:


Nigel,what are you doing up this late?

It's 11:49PM in Jamaica, so it's not very late and my birthday will be in a few minutes
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This guy is so happy with Wind Farms that he went to inspect them flying over them.... 3/30
Link
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i hope this is a glitch
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Quoting nigel20:
Good evening everyone!


Nigel,what are you doing up this late?
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Quoting Grothar:


It just reminded me of a funny story from the "Dust Bowl era in Texas and Oklahoma. The farmers, as you know, were practically ruined. Many had to mortgage their farms. The story goes that a farmer went into town and asked for a mortgage on his property. The banker said, "Well, I will have to go out and look at it" The farmer replied, "You don't have to, it is blowing by you right now."



LOL a classic
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
almost 1 in the morning must be runnin the laptop under the covers again


Everyone is sleeping. I just got up and went into the den. I NEVER have a laptop under the covers.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Whoa, that's plenty of convection there, how come south FL is only at 30% chance of rain tomorrow?


They don't want to scare us.
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Quoting Grothar:


It just reminded me of a funny story from the "Dust Bowl era in Texas and Oklahoma. The farmers, as you know, were practically ruined. Many had to mortgage their farms. The story goes that a farmer went into town and asked for a mortgage on his property. The banker said, "Well, I will have to go out and look at it" The farmer replied, "You don't have to, it is blowing by you right now."

almost 1 in the morning must be runnin the laptop under the covers again
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey TD, it looks like you are in the wrong place.



Yeah, nice and clear here. haha Ive had plenty of storms this season tho
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey TD, it looks like you are in the wrong place.



Whoa, that's plenty of convection there, how come south FL is only at 30% chance of rain tomorrow?
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Quoting tornadodude:


Depending on what part of Texas, it could very well go through the people.


It just reminded me of a funny story from the "Dust Bowl era in Texas and Oklahoma. The farmers, as you know, were practically ruined. Many had to mortgage their farms. The story goes that a farmer went into town and asked for a mortgage on his property. The banker said, "Well, I will have to go out and look at it" The farmer replied, "You don't have to, it is blowing by you right now."

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Quoting Grothar:


The people or the farms?


The people....

Link
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Quoting charlottefl:


Well, the people of course silly.... :p


I just like clarification. :)
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Hey TD, it looks like you are in the wrong place.

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This is the first hurricane I actually remember. 1948. Yes, 1948, not 1648.



A few weeks later, we got another one. Had it been a little further North, it could have been worse than the first one.

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Anyone can post a Radar animation of that supercell going into N Texas?
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Quoting jeffs713:

It doesn't absorb the energy. If it did, there would be little bits of matter falling here and there. (E=mc^2)

It redirects the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical energy, which is then used to propel electrons in a magnetic circuit... what we know as electricity. It will create turbulence, but the "loss" of energy provided by the wind is infitesmial, at best


Thanks, I thought the loss was higher...

----Some of the wind’s kinetic energy is lost as friction, as it passes over and around obstructions such as trees, houses and mountains.
At a wind farm, some of the wind’s kinetic energy is harvested and changed into mechanical energy by turning a turbine, and then into electrical energy that flows into power lines.

The first step in reducing the effects of turbulence on local hydrometeorological conditions is to identify regions around the world where wind energy is high and frictional dissipation also is high, Baidya Roy said. “Building wind farms in regions where there is already a lot of kinetic energy dissipation would help to minimize the intrusion to the natural kinetic energy cycle.”------
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Good evening everyone!
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Quoting Grothar:


The people or the farms?


Depending on what part of Texas, it could very well go through the people.
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Quoting Grothar:


The people or the farms?


Well, the people of course silly.... :p
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Quoting tornadodude:


It's not like it absorbs it.. the wind simply blows through them.


The people or the farms?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


If someone lives down stream where the wind is supposed to reach the area where a town or a city is located, the effects could be felt, due to the absorption of the farm of that natural energy....

It doesn't absorb the energy. If it did, there would be little bits of matter falling here and there. (E=mc^2)

It redirects the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical energy, which is then used to propel electrons in a magnetic circuit... what we know as electricity. It will create turbulence, but the "loss" of energy provided by the wind is infitesmial, at best
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm expecting a lot of rain up here in Central Florida later this week, potentially several inches. It's hard to say how much will occur in South Florida though for a number of reasons, one being energy associated with the stalling front, how much will exist as it heads further south.


You won't get a drop, we're going to get it all. :)
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Quoting sunlinepr:


If someone lives down stream where the wind is supposed to reach the area where a town or a city is located, the effects could be felt, due to the absorption of the farm of that natural energy....


It's not like it absorbs it.. the wind simply blows through them.
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Quoting bluheelrtx:

Nobody lives "near" those things. Texas is a big place.


If someone lives down stream where the wind is supposed to reach the area where a town or a city is located, the effects could be felt, due to the absorption of the farm of that natural energy....
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Quoting Grothar:


Good chance you will get wet by the morning. It is holding together pretty good. These are typical features this time of year. We used to get them a few times a week, but not much the last 15 years. At one time you could almost set your clock by them. There were Junes where is rained every day of the month. It was always our rainiest month.

The Florida East Coast always got over 60 inches per year



I'm expecting a lot of rain up here in Central Florida later this week, potentially several inches. It's hard to say how much will occur in South Florida though for a number of reasons, one being energy associated with the stalling front, how much will exist as it heads further south.
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Quoting windshear1993:
whats the level of the SAL..ANYONE???


Here is a pretty good way to check the SAL

Check it out
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Quoting Jedkins01:



It all started with me talking about how I found it rather freaky that lobsters are dropped into boiling water while alive, and how I personally don't like it all.

I'm sorry if I got people upset over the whole thing, but whatever.

Remember, if the water is boiling, they die near instantly. (I say "near", because it might take all of a second)

Torture is dropping them into water that isn't boiling.
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No problem.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like you will experience Warmer nights if you live near a Large wind farm....

Nobody lives "near" those things. Texas is a big place.
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Quoting bappit:
What got y'all off on discussing animals?



It all started with me talking about how I found it rather freaky that lobsters are dropped into boiling water while alive, and how I personally don't like it all.

I'm sorry if I got people upset over the whole thing, but whatever.
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Severe Nuclear Reactor Accidents Likely Every 10 to 20 Years, European Study Suggests ScienceDaily (May 22, 2012)



---------Based on the operating hours of all civil nuclear reactors and the number of nuclear meltdowns that have occurred, scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz have calculated that such events may occur once every 10 to 20 years (based on the current number of reactors) -- some 200 times more often than estimated in the past. The researchers also determined that, in the event of such a major accident, half of the radioactive caesium-137 would be spread over an area of more than 1,000 kilometres away from the nuclear reactor.------------

Link

So after all, Looks like we will have to move to the southern hemisphere...
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Quoting windshear1993:
whats the level of the SAL..ANYONE???


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Tropical Storm Beryl [AL02]

AL0212

26 May - 30 May

Beryl was the second out of season tropical storm to form in the Atlantic during 2012. Its formation marked the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms formed during the month of May. In addition, Beryl's landfall near Jacksonville as a 60 kt tropical storm makes it the strongest pre-June tropical cyclone landfall on record for the United States. The previous record was held by Subtropical Storm Alpha, which struck the Georgia coast with 50 kt winds in May of 1972.

a. Storm history

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on 12 May, and is believed to have been the precursor to Beryl. The wave was accompanied by some deep convection as it emerged from the coast. Thereafter, the wave become largely indistinct as it marched across the Atlantic, and its entrance into the western Caribbean on 21 May is based largely on extrapolation and continuity. Subsequently, the wave began to interact with a preexisting area of anomalous southwesterly flow encompassing a distance from the far eastern Pacific to Bermuda. This large-scale flow pattern, which has shown to be quite favorable for the initiation of thunderstorm development, could have been triggered by the upward phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which was making its way across the far eastern Pacific and adjacent Caribbean Sea at that time. Strong westerly shear prevented significant development while the system was in the Caribbean.

In the wake of Alberto, a small trough became established over the eastern seaboard, which forced the disorganized disturbance toward the east-northeast. The system crossed eastern Cuba early on 24 May, and entered the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Bahamas later that day. Surface observations from Grand Bahama indicated westerly winds as early as 1200 UTC 25 May as the disturbance passed to the east, providing evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. The low moved northeastward at about 15 mph during this time, embedded in broad southwesterly flow associated with the trough. Under the influence of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the system began to acquire organized deep convection near the center. While such an evolution would typically presage tropical cyclone formation, analysis of satellite and water vapor imagery indicates that the surface low was collocated with an upper low that had apparently been spawned from the same trough that recurved Alberto. This prevented the convection from forming directly over the center. In addition, the system initially lacked upper-level outflow, another distinct characteristic of a tropical cyclone.

Late on 25 May, the trough weakened, leaving the system in a region of weak steering. Owing to the influence of the upper low, the designation of the system as a cyclone at 0000 UTC 26 May is considered to be subtropical. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given. Beryl was initially trapped in a region of weak steering, and moved only slowly southwest. A large blocking pattern began to amplify over the eastern United States at this time, which caused the cyclone to gradually accelerate. Based on microwave data and satellite imagery, Beryl is estimated to have transformed into a tropical cyclone near 1800 UTC 27 May while centered about 110 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. The cyclone's winds are estimated to have been around 55 kt at this time.

As it rounded the southern periphery of the ridge, Beryl turned westward throughout much of the 27th. Under light shear and warm waters, the cyclone strengthened, reaching a peak of 60 kt shortly before landfall along the northeastern Florida coast near Jacksonville Beach just after 0400 UTC 28 May. The cyclone appeared to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane, as doppler visuals indicated a developing eyewall. Following the typical progression, Beryl began to weaken as it moved inland. Concurrently, the cyclone slowed significantly, which was followed by a gradual turn to the north and northeast around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Indeed, the forward speed had decreased so much that the cyclone became essentially stationary near the Georgia/Florida border for about twelve hours beginning around 0000 UTC 29 May. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression near 1200 UTC 29 May while still over northern Florida about 15 miles south of the Georgia border. It should be noted that it took Beryl roughly 38 hours to weaken to a tropical depression after landfall -- a rather anomalous inland decay rate, especially for a system of Beryl's strength.

The slow weakening of the tropical cyclone while moving overland is likely attributable to Beryl's close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Its slow movement enabled it to develop a well-defined and persistent inflow band to the east, which helped to continue mixing the strong winds aloft to the surface. Interestingly, water vapor imagery shortly after landfall indicated dry air and some westerly shear impinging on the cyclone's western periphery, which kept much of the associated precipitation in well-defined bands to the east of the center. By around 1200 UTC 29 May, Beryl began to accelerate. As Beryl neared the South Carolina near 0600 UTC, the cloud pattern began to become more suggestive of an extratropical cyclone as the storm began to interact with a cold front moving across the northeastern United States. Synoptic data suggest that this process was complete six hours later, when the system was very near the North Carolina coast.
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Quoting CypressJim08:
Can someone give a quick synopsis of the moisture in the gulf, and what if any chances it brings rain to the SW Florida area?


Good chance you will get wet by the morning. It is holding together pretty good. These are typical features this time of year. We used to get them a few times a week, but not much the last 15 years. At one time you could almost set your clock by them. There were Junes where is rained every day of the month. It was always our rainiest month.

The Florida East Coast always got over 60 inches per year

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Quoting allancalderini:
have you make your Alberto TCR? I think I didn`t see it.


I've made Alberto and Beryl's. I'll post them again I suppose.

------------------------------------------------- ------------------------

Tropical Storm Alberto [AL01]

AL012012

19 May - 22 May

Alberto was an out of season tropical storm, the first of two, that developed in the month of May in the north Atlantic. Alberto did not affect land.

a. Storm history

Alberto's origins appear to have begun as early as 10 May. During this time, satellite and water vapor imagery images showed that a well-defined upper-tropospheric cold low, accompanied by a well-marked cold front, entered west Texas. The front entered the Gulf of Mexico early on 12 May. Although the front gradually decayed, it became quasi-stationary over the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly in response to being sandwiched between two high pressure areas. During this time, the front produced intermittent clusters of showers and thunderstorms. The preexisting large-scale cyclonic flow was reinforced in this area by the passage of several shortwave perturbations in the semipermanent mid-latitude low pressure belt. The associated cloudiness moved across the Florida peninsula, and entered the western Atlantic on 16 May. The activity moved steadily northeastward and soon became entangled with an approaching trough.

The southern portion of this activity became stationary over the western Atlantic waters, while the northern portion of the trough continued moving northward. Around 1200 UTC 17 May, satellite and radar animations showed that a cloud mass formed over central South Carolina, possibly associated with a weak mesoscale convective system (MCS). This system moved offshore shortly after 0000 UTC 18 May, and later ASCAT data indicated the presence of a small surface circulation. The small low continued to become better organized, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed from it around 1200 UTC 18 May, while centered about 100 miles south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given.

The depression became a tropical storm about 6 hr later. Initially, Alberto was embedded in a region of weak steering currents, and drifted slowly southwest. Based on a nearby ship report, the cyclone reached its estimated peak intensity of 50 kt around 2100 UTC. Soon thereafter, the tropical storm began to weaken under increasing southwesterly shear. In addition, water vapor imagery during this time suggests that Alberto was ingesting a very dry airmass over the southeastern United States, which likely counteracted the otherwise favorable sea surface temperature regime of the Gulf Stream. Synoptic steering currents gradually became more defined as a weak upper-level trough moved through the Ohio Valley, and Alberto responded with a gradual turn to the south and east, on a track well offshore the southeastern United States coast.

Continuously battered by marginal atmospheric and thermodynamic parameters -- namely dry air and wind shear, Alberto weakened to a tropical depression near 0000 UTC 22 May. At that time, the center became almost completely exposed to the west of a diminishing area of showers. Convection subsequently increased, but this activity was disorganized, and is not assumed to have been sufficient to bring Alberto back to a tropical storm. Later that day, around 1200 UTC, the cyclone became a remnant low while located approximately 160 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Moving northeastward, the remnant low lost its identity within a broad and nearly-stationary trough that extended from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to Bermuda. This same trough would soon assist in the formation of Tropical Storm Beryl.
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On this day in 2001, TS Allison made landfall in Texas, eventually causing the most damage for a TS in U.S. history.



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Oklahoma City Thunder won tonight, enjoying some strawberry shortcake, and preparing to go to Tennessee for the summer. Life's good.
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whats the level of the SAL..ANYONE???
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Seems like you will experience Warmer nights if you live near a Large wind farm.... What other effects will be discovered?


Night-Warming Effect Found Over Large Wind Farms in Texas

ScienceDaily (Apr. 30, 2012) — Large wind farms in certain areas in the United States appear to affect local land surface temperatures, according to a paper published April 30 in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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