Rick Knabb takes over as director of NHC
Today marks the first day of work for the National Hurricane Center's new director--Dr. Rick Knabb, who worked at NHC from 2005 - 2008 as a senior hurricane forecaster before leaving in 2008 to take a position as deputy director and director of operations of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and NWS Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii. Dr. Knabb left Hawaii to take a position as The Weather Channel's hurricane expert in 2010, where he worked until May of this year. He thus brings a unique mix of NHC experience, managerial experience, and experience communicating to the public on-camera, to the NHC director's job. He will fit in very comfortably with the NHC staff, and should make an excellent NHC director. Knabb, 43, is the second youngest director of NHC. Only Neil Frank, who served as director from 1973 - 1987, was younger at the time he took the job.
Dr. Knabb takes over the directorship of NHC from Bill Read. Read took the post of NHC director in 2008 after Bill Proenza stepped down following a stormy six-month tenure where much of staff revolted against him. In the wake of the turmoil stirred up by Proenza, Read brought stability to the Hurricane Center. Read's management ability, easy-going style, and solid communication skills made Read an excellent choice for director of NHC, and he will be missed. “I will have been in charge just shy of four and a half years on June 1,” Read wrote in a letter to hurricane center staff earlier this year. “I had no idea I would ever be considered for such an honor. It’s been quite a ride and I’m blessed to hit the exit ramp in my career after working with you all.” Read was lucky enough in his four-year tenure at NHC to never oversee a landfalling major hurricane in the U.S.
National Hurricane Center Directors:
Gordon Dunn, 1965 - 1967
Robert Simpson, 1967 - 1973
Neil Frank, 1973 - 1987
Bob Sheets, 1987 - 1995
Robert Burpee, 1995 - 1997
Jerry Jarrell, 1998 - 2000
Max Mayfield, 2000 - 2007
Bill Proenza, January - July, 2007
Ed Rappaport (interim), July 2007 - January 2008
Bill Read, 2008 - 2012
Rick Knabb, 2012 - ????
It looks like Dr. Knabb will have a quiet first week on the job--there are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
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http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweath er/getForecast?query=36092&wuSelect=WEATHER
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A MAJOR storm front is closing in on Sydney, bringing gale-force winds, torrential rain and possible flash flooding.
A severe weather warning has been in place along NSW's coast since yesterday as the weather band moves north from Victoria.
The wild weather is expected to hit Sydney around peak hour, with State Emergency Services (SES) crews turning out in force.
Volunteers in Manly fear big waves could threaten waterfront properties.
"I am preparing at the moment. The unit is filling sandbags right now," SES Manly spokesman Joerg Lindner said.
"It is an unusual situation with the combination of the high tide caused by the full moon, the rain and the winds."
He said the water level was expected to peak around 9pm (AEST) today.
Senior meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Julie Evans, said heavy rain of up to 50mm was expected to hit Sydney but authorities were more concerned about gale-force winds of up to 120km/h.
"The main message isn't about a rain event, it's very much a wind and wave event," she said.
The mix of gusts and high tides was a potent combination for the state's waterline.
"The planets are aligned, I suppose you could say," she said. "The very high tides this evening could mean you will see an inundation of low-lying coastal areas."
The SES is door-knocking homes in Tempe, in Sydney's inner west, to warn of possible flash flooding from the Cooks River, Macquarie Radio reports.
NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) spokesman Ben Shepherd said volunteers were hard at work cleaning up after the storm along the south coast, where toppled trees had blocked roads and damaged property.
"We've got one house extensively damaged in Malua Bay. A tree's gone down," he said.
He said the rain had helped lower the risk of fire from downed power lines.
Farther inland, the BOM has had reports of snow falling in Oberon, near Orange in the state's west.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 5 2012
=================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan
At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (975 hPa) located at 27.1N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
Gale Force Winds
================
220 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 31.9N 141.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Southeast of Hachijo-jima
45 HRS: 38.4N 149.3E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Perturbation Tropicale 14-20112012
10:00 AM RET June 5 2012
========================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 14 (1003 hPa) located at 9.0S 62.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 5 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 9.3S 60.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 9.4S 58.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 9.0S 55.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 8.4S 53.1E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
Additional Information
====================
Strong winds are expected to increase in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect, during the trade wind surge. Vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken during the next two days.. so system may deepen as is tracks generally westward.
I think I just found a new desktop background.
Morning
Well that has certainly been hanging around
was the guy a nice dude? im sure you remember: P
Hot and humid.
Winds @ Sydney International Airport,
57km/h gusting to 76km/h. At it's peak Sydney Airport wx station reported 80km/h winds with 100km/h gusts.
Which run had more information in it?!
30-40kts of wind shear. I don't think so.
Shear tendency is going lower. Still don think it will develop.
427 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012
LONG TERM...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. THIS TIME LAST YEAR
HIGH PRESSURE BECAME DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FROM THE OZARKS WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE
AN OPPRESSIVE HEAT WAVE, HELPING TO KICK OFF THE SEVERE DROUGHT
OVER THE REGION. THE PICTURE IS COMPLETELY CHANGED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND EXTENDING BEYOND THE
LONG RANGE PORTION OF THIS FORECAST AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
EVENTUALLY BECOMES AN UPPER LOW NEAR TEXAS AND LOUISIANA IN A
BLOCKING PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE WELCOME RELIEF IN POWER
CONSUMPTION AND IN OUR ENERGY BILLS, NOT TO MENTION BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND LOWER IRRIGATION COSTS COMPARED WITH LAST YEAR AT
THIS TIME.
So basically the Tampa Shield is up?
What's the chance this does an Albert and develop off the East coast?
After looking at the parameters again, the best chance of severe will be north of Brooksville and south of Southern GA. So yea, Tampa Shield is here to save the day.
Once the moisture moves off the east coast it will still be entrenched in high shear so I seriously doubt development.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
519 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-061030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
519 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012
...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WIND: GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAIL: NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
GULF COAST BEACHES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.
Meant to ask earlier, are winds high enough to produce with 80mph gusts somewhat expectable in Sydney in the way that SantaAna wind gusts are expectable in SouthernCalifornia?
ie Happens several times a year? Or is this an extraordinary event?
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