The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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1897. hydrus
1:55 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm still leaning neutral to weak El Nino through August.

Me too..If we can sqeak by one more season without a strike, by next season there may be a strong El-Nino to put a serious dent in the number of storms. I know it only takes one.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
1896. MTWX
1:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting tornadodude:



Yeah, I thought about that after I posted that. Great point.

I wonder if anyone has archived images of debris balls from different radar tilts


Would be extremely difficult to find, if at all. The radar changes it's elevation (tilt) after every cut, for the most part, depending on its scan mode (we have 4 modes here). A cut only takes about 10-40 seconds to completed before it changes elevation. A full scan can take as long as 15 minutes, once again depending on the mode. Most tornadoes are not even on the ground that long. Best chance is to find you a strong long tracker, and hope they archived the cuts individually!

Happy hunting!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
1895. GeorgiaStormz
1:07 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Looks like there were some pretty tall clouds this morning:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
1894. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:00 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Good morning all.

Mawar is not looking too good right now. It's beginning to battle with a wall of wind shear, and it looks like a little bit of dry air may be giving it trouble. The typhoon probably peaked with 100 kt (115 mph) winds last night.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 965.0mb/ 74.6kt

04/0832 UTC 23.1N 127.1E T4.5/5.5 MAWAR -- West Pacific



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
1893. RitaEvac
12:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
The situation that will unfold over TX is looking similar to the warm core lows of the summer of 2007 which produced devastating flooding rainfall across portions of of NC TX
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
1892. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:56 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1891. ncstorm
12:55 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
00z Euro Ensembles


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
1890. washingtonian115
12:36 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting pottery:

LOL !
Hot and bright here this morning.
A shower or 2 last night.
Going to be Humid......
It's going to be in it's mid 70's with low humidity. :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
1889. pottery
12:26 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
According to the models looks like we could get them back to back. Just like this blog.

LOL !
Hot and bright here this morning.
A shower or 2 last night.
Going to be Humid......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
1888. washingtonian115
12:24 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting pottery:

Eventually.....
According to the models looks like we could get them back to back.
Quoting pottery:
The Atlantic is dry......
Just like this blog.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
1887. pottery
12:17 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
The Atlantic is dry......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
1886. pottery
12:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
So we could get both Chris and Debby eh?.

Eventually.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
1885. washingtonian115
12:10 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
So we could get both Chris and Debby eh?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
1884. Astrophysics
12:07 PM GMT on June 04, 2012
Here is a satellite image of the storm system that will be bringing windy, rainy, and cold conditions to the southeastern half of Australia over the next couple of days.
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
1883. K8eCane
11:57 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
anyone here from indonesia?
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3139
1882. StormTracker2K
11:52 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
You folks Tampa north might be in awe in the amount of rain that maybe rung out later this week as this is a lot of high octane tropical air moving NE. The PWAT's in the southern Gulf are in excess of 2.5".

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1881. Astrophysics
11:52 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Looks like the weather for tomorrow will be really gusty with heaps of rain.


Predicting up to 100km/hr wind with this developing low south of Sydney. There is a strong front behind this complex area of low pressure. I included the first weather map to show the frontal nature of this system (fronts often get missed by the Aussie Bureau of Meteorology). Wednesday looks like rubbish for viewing the transit of Venus here in Sydney. Also not looking foreword to the 4 to 5 months of winter ): We didn't even have summer this year in Sydney which was pretty rubbish. I miss the Florida warmth!

Quoting AussieStorm:
Hello Winter.
our 1st complex low pressure system is developing off the east coast of Australia. it is already effecting Victoria and is due to move up the coast and effect NSW/Sydney tomorrow/Tuesday then will move away towards New Zealand on Wednesday/Thursday. We are expecting the worst on Tuesday night with heavy rain and gale force winds of 70km/h+.

Current.

Tuesday

Wednesday


As you can also see we have another Low moving in from the west which will bring much needed rain to SW Western Australia.
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
1880. macrobiologist
11:47 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Is the Whitewater-Baldy fire not blog-worthy? It is the largest fire in NM state history, replacing the former largest fire, last year's Los Conchas fire, by about 80 thousand acres.

It has to be the most notable event from North America in recent weeks.
Member Since: August 14, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
1879. StormTracker2K
11:34 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
It is going to be a wet week across C & N FL. Some areas could see several inches of rain according to the HPC.



This is the reason why here as this deep tropical mopisture over the Yucatan merges with a stalled front over N FL to provide a wet Thursday and Friday across the state. I also wouldn't rule out that some totals near the west coast of FL could approach 10" in a set up like this.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1878. WxGeekVA
11:16 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Sad news everybody. Eduard Khil, the man who sang the Trollolol song died last night. May he continue to troll in heaven forever.

Trollol

Eduard Khil Dies
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
1877. ncstorm
11:02 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
CMC..same timeline as the Euro



also in the GOM
low pressure.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
1876. ncstorm
10:58 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
the 00Z Euro..watch for the east coast first and then the GOM



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
1875. windshear1993
10:43 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Even if the Pacific warms up, it will take at least 3 months for the atmosphere to catch up. Which would make El nino appear atmospherically in October.
you mean september?
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
1874. LargoFl
10:40 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38502
1873. LargoFl
10:39 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38502
1872. MAweatherboy1
10:38 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Good morning.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7783
1871. RTLSNK
9:59 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20954
1870. RTLSNK
9:58 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20954
1869. Chicklit
8:53 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH NCNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040839Z - 041015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NWRN AND EVENTUALLY NCNTRL AR EARLY THIS MORNING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EAST OF WW 350 TO INCLUDE NCNTRL AR.

DISCUSSION...A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-VORTEX OVER NERN OK. STRONGEST STORMS EXIST ALONG SERN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF MESO-VORTEX.

THIS LINE SEGMENT MAY CONTINUE TO BOW AND ACCELERATE EWD INTO NWRN AR WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FARTHER WEST...AND WHERE A RESERVOIR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS.

LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO DURATION OF THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

..DIAL/HART.. 06/04/2012


ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 35349524 35979417 35819190 34809169 34959360 35349524
Link Storm Prediction Center Current Mesoscale Discussions
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
1868. Chicklit
8:46 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 328 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... NORTH CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... UNTIL 415 AM CDT
* AT 328 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HICKORY RIDGE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...PARKIN...WYNNE AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS....STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LinkCollege of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
1867. GTcooliebai
8:36 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Ground Clutter always fascinates me :~P

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1866. Chicklit
8:34 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Link Tulsa Loop

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
1865. Chicklit
8:33 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Statement as of 3:27 AM CDT on June 04, 2012

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Sequoyah County in east central Oklahoma
Crawford County in northwest Arkansas northeastern Le Flore County in southeast Oklahoma northern Sebastian County in west central Arkansas

* until 430 am CDT

* at 322 am CDT... severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Lee Creek to 9 miles west of Natural Dam to 12 miles northwest of Muldrow... moving southeast at 35 mph.

Storm hazards include... wind gusts to 60 mph...

* some locations in or near the path of these storms include... Natural Dam... Lee Creek... Cedarville... Muldrow... Figure Five... Roland... Chester... Lake Fort Smith... Rudy... Van Buren... Mountainburg... Moffett... Fort Smith... Arkoma... Alma... Dyer...Pocola... Barling... Bonanza... Lavaca... Mulberry... Hackett... Jenny Lind... Bloomer... Excelsior and Greenwood.

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 314 and 328.

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 23.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

People outside should move to a safe shelter... preferably inside a strong building. Stay away from windows until the storm has passed.


Lat... Lon 3566 9398 3566 9407 3558 9407 3557 9403
3553 9404 3551 9403 3547 9405 3546 9403
3544 9408 3526 9409 3511 9444 3541 9470
3558 9446 3576 9438 3576 9395
time... Mot... loc 0827z 312deg 31kt 3574 9440 3558 9451
3550 9472

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
1864. KoritheMan
7:45 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
I just finished compiling my TCR on Tropical Storm Beryl. Since we'll likely have a new blog when I wake up, I'll post it again tomorrow:


Tropical Storm Beryl [AL02]

AL0212

26 May - 30 May

Beryl was the second out of season tropical storm to form in the Atlantic during 2012. Its formation marked the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms formed during the month of May. In addition, Beryl's landfall near Jacksonville as a 60 kt tropical storm makes it the strongest pre-June tropical cyclone landfall on record for the United States. The previous record was held by Subtropical Storm Alpha, which struck the Georgia coast with 50 kt winds in May of 1972.

a. Storm history

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on 12 May, and is believed to have been the precursor to Beryl. The wave was accompanied by some deep convection as it emerged from the coast. Thereafter, the wave become largely indistinct as it marched across the Atlantic, and its entrance into the western Caribbean on 21 May is based largely on extrapolation and continuity. Subsequently, the wave began to interact with a preexisting area of anomalous southwesterly flow encompassing a distance from the far eastern Pacific to Bermuda. This large-scale flow pattern, which has shown to be quite favorable for the initiation of thunderstorm development, could have been triggered by the upward phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which was making its way across the far eastern Pacific and adjacent Caribbean Sea at that time. Strong westerly shear prevented significant development while the system was in the Caribbean.

In the wake of Alberto, a small trough became established over the eastern seaboard, which forced the disorganized disturbance toward the east-northeast. The system crossed eastern Cuba early on 24 May, and entered the western Atlantic in the vicinity of the Bahamas later that day. Surface observations from Grand Bahama indicated westerly winds as early as 1200 UTC 25 May as the disturbance passed to the east, providing evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. The low moved northeastward at about 15 mph during this time, embedded in broad southwesterly flow associated with the trough. Under the influence of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the system began to acquire organized deep convection near the center. While such an evolution would typically presage tropical cyclone formation, analysis of satellite and water vapor imagery indicates that the surface low was collocated with an upper low that had apparently been spawned from the same trough that recurved Alberto. This prevented the convection from forming directly over the center. In addition, the system initially lacked upper-level outflow, another distinct characteristic of a tropical cyclone.

Late on 25 May, the trough weakened, leaving the system in a region of weak steering. Owing to the influence of the upper low, the designation of the system as a cyclone at 0000 UTC 26 May is considered to be subtropical. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given. Beryl was initially trapped in a region of weak steering, and moved only slowly southwest. A large blocking pattern began to amplify over the eastern United States at this time, which caused the cyclone to gradually accelerate. Based on microwave data and satellite imagery, Beryl is estimated to have transformed into a tropical cyclone near 1800 UTC 27 May while centered about 110 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. The cyclone's winds are estimated to have been around 55 kt at this time.

As it rounded the southern periphery of the ridge, Beryl turned westward throughout much of the 27th. Under light shear and warm waters, the cyclone strengthened, reaching a peak of 60 kt shortly before landfall along the northeastern Florida coast near Jacksonville Beach just after 0400 UTC 28 May. The cyclone appeared to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane, as doppler visuals indicated a developing eyewall. Following the typical progression, Beryl began to weaken as it moved inland. Concurrently, the cyclone slowed significantly, which was followed by a gradual turn to the north and northeast around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Indeed, the forward speed had decreased so much that the cyclone became essentially stationary near the Georgia/Florida border for about twelve hours beginning around 0000 UTC 29 May. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression near 1200 UTC 29 May while still over northern Florida about 15 miles south of the Georgia border. It should be noted that it took Beryl roughly 38 hours to weaken to a tropical depression after landfall -- a rather anomalous inland decay rate, especially for a system of Beryl's strength.

The slow weakening of the tropical cyclone while moving overland is likely attributable to Beryl's close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Its slow movement enabled it to develop a well-defined and persistent inflow band to the east, which helped to continue mixing the strong winds aloft to the surface. Interestingly, water vapor imagery shortly after landfall indicated dry air and some westerly shear impinging on the cyclone's western periphery, which kept much of the associated precipitation in well-defined bands to the east of the center. By around 1200 UTC 29 May, Beryl began to accelerate. As Beryl neared the South Carolina near 0600 UTC, the cloud pattern began to become more suggestive of an extratropical cyclone as the storm began to interact with a cold front moving across the northeastern United States. Synoptic data suggest that this process was complete six hours later, when the system was very near the North Carolina coast.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20587
1863. AussieStorm
7:01 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Hello Winter.
our 1st complex low pressure system is developing off the east coast of Australia. it is already effecting Victoria and is due to move up the coast and effect NSW/Sydney tomorrow/Tuesday then will move away towards New Zealand on Wednesday/Thursday. We are expecting the worst on Tuesday night with heavy rain and gale force winds of 70km/h+.

Current.

Tuesday

Wednesday


As you can also see we have another Low moving in from the west which will bring much needed rain to SW Western Australia.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1862. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:57 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 22.6N 126.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 26.5N 130.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northwest of Minami Daito
45 HRS: 30.1N 137.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
69 HRS: 34.3N 146.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
1861. AussieStorm
6:53 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting windshear1993:
the pacific is warming rapidly im expecting elnino conditions by late july early august

Even if the Pacific warms up, it will take at least 3 months for the atmosphere to catch up. Which would make El nino appear atmospherically in October.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1860. windshear1993
5:22 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
the pacific is warming rapidly im expecting elnino conditions by late july early august
Member Since: June 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
1859. tornadodude
5:19 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Looks like they ended up correcting it shortly after. Seems like someone had a morbid test message in mind tonight...


from College of Dupage site
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
1858. ScottLincoln
5:11 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
1631 Patrap: Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM
1778 aspectre: I find myself wondering if that extra plus3.54PPM above MaunaLoa's most recent weekly average is due to decomposition of organic material that until recently was trapped in the now-unfrozen "perma"frost.
1782 Skyepony: Methane hasn't followed that trend so far this spring..

THANKS! I hadn't thought to look for methane as the companion decomposition product.
So I guess the excess is CO2 from the industrialized NorthernHemisphere, with a greater portion heading toward the Arctic than toward the Tropics.


It's not necessarily "heading" toward the Arctic, it is probably more closely related to the fact that the Arctic has fewer plants to use up the CO2 and thus concentrations are higher.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
1857. ScottLincoln
5:08 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting tornadodude:
SPC caught it, but this little gem slipped through tonight





Looks like they ended up correcting it shortly after. Seems like someone had a morbid test message in mind tonight...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
1856. aspectre
5:01 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
1631 Patrap: Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM
1778 aspectre: I find myself wondering if that extra plus3.54PPM above MaunaLoa's most recent weekly average is due to decomposition of organic material that until recently was trapped in the now-unfrozen "perma"frost.
1782 Skyepony: Methane hasn't followed that trend so far this spring..

THANKS! I hadn't thought to look for methane as the companion decomposition product.
So I guess the excess is CO2 from the industrialized NorthernHemisphere, with a greater portion heading toward the Arctic than toward the Tropics.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1855. AtHomeInTX
5:00 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Same place as last nights run in the same time frame. This doesn't come out of the Pacific though. Still looks like something will try to develop in the Caribbean or EPAC in a couple weeks. As usual stay tuned.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
1854. tornadodude
4:56 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
SPC caught it, but this little gem slipped through tonight



Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
1853. ScottLincoln
4:50 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't think there's ever such a thing as "too much shear", much in the same way there is no such thing as "too less shear" when it comes to hurricanes. Was this an official statement by the NWS? Now I'm curious about the source.


Thunderstorms can be sheared apart, just like hurricanes can...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
1852. tornadodude
4:47 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


0.5 degrees means entirely different things at different ranges from the radar, so yes it does have to do with how high the debris is lofted. At further ranges, it's quantity, height, and coverage (as the beam spreads in addition to elevation gain).



Yeah, I thought about that after I posted that. Great point.

I wonder if anyone has archived images of debris balls from different radar tilts
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
1851. nigel20
4:47 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm still leaning neutral to weak El Nino through August.


Thanks Skye...good night everyone!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8029
1850. ScottLincoln
4:42 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting tornadodude:


It's not necessarily how high the debris is lofted, since the radar can scan at 0.5 degrees. It is more the amount of debris being picked up by the tornado.


0.5 degrees means entirely different things at different ranges from the radar, so yes it does have to do with how high the debris is lofted. At further ranges, it's quantity, height, and coverage (as the beam spreads in addition to elevation gain).
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
1849. tornadodude
4:39 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Quoting Tribucanes:
thanks Tornadodude


anytime, if you have any more questions, feel free to shoot me a message, Im more than happy to help
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8339
1848. Tribucanes
4:39 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
thanks Tornadodude
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437
1847. Tribucanes
4:38 AM GMT on June 04, 2012
Peace and goodnight all.
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2437

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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