The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Euro doesn't extend out that far.

I think that tells us something... Right now I'm treating this as nothing more than a long range GFS fantasy storm... If it continues to move up the time frame and the Euro and others catch on when it gets in their range then it will be something to watch out for.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Dinner in about an hour and a half: Roast Pork, Homemade Au Gratin Potatoes, Swiss vegetable cassarole, and homemade frontier apple pie drizzled with caramel sauce and topped with vanilla ice cream and more caramel. Hot weather outside mean cold desert inside.

Can I come?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Dinner in about an hour and a half: Roast Pork, Homemade Au Gratin Potatoes, Swiss vegetable cassarole, and homemade frontier apple pie drizzled with caramel sauce and topped with vanilla ice cream and more caramel. Hot weather outside mean cold desert inside.

Did you bring enough for everyone on the blog?
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Good morning Mawar!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31467
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


We need the Euro.

The Euro doesn't extend out that far.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31467
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Three days now.


i dont think so, that was the ECMWF, the GFS showed it once in the E Gulf and then dropped it, but you may be right.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And so the consistency continues.


We need the Euro.
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Dinner in about an hour and a half: Roast Pork, Homemade Au Gratin Potatoes, Swiss vegetable cassarole, and homemade frontier apple pie drizzled with caramel sauce and topped with vanilla ice cream and more caramel. Hot weather outside mean cold desert inside.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that wasn't there on the GFS before, was it?

Three days now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31467
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And so the consistency continues.


that wasn't there on the GFS before, was it?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


He'll have his people, call your people.

LOL
Matter of fact, I've got people in VA Beach.
Catch you guys tomorrow.
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Decent hail core on a cell in Arkansas

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting RobDaHood:
Spathy,
I really need to get to the west coast I suppose. Rains every time. The last time I was in Siesta Key it rained for 2 1/2 days. Unfortunately I'm kinda booked up until August. Will see if I can squeeze you in somewhere.
:o)


He'll have his people, call your people.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068
Quoting xcool:


12z gfs ensemble

And so the consistency continues.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31467
Quoting spathy:
1562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:10 PM GMT on June 03, 2012 Hide this comment.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I really can't wait for December 22nd...

neither can i
------------------------------------

Oh I can wait. But being that I am a little older now,that date will be here as fast as I can sneeze!

My Grandparents warned me about the shift in time speed as I got older,and as it turns out so did the Mayans.


Hahaha, every year does seem to get faster doesn't it? Shame really should be the other way around :p
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068
Spathy,
I really need to get to the west coast I suppose. Rains every time. The last time I was in Siesta Key it rained for 2 1/2 days. Unfortunately I'm kinda booked up until August. Will see if I can squeeze you in somewhere.
:o)
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Quoting xcool:


12z gfs ensemble


Looks like a low pressure moving into SE Texas. Just what we need!
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1580. xcool


12z gfs ensemble
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1579. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
6:00 AM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 21.3N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 24.9N 128.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South southeast of Naha
45 HRS: 28.3N 133.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Japan
69 HRS: 30.9N 140.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
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Im hoping for an MCS tomorrow, should track right over my house, maybe we will lose power.
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1577. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
5:00 AM PhST June 4 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" has intensified and no longer poses any threat to the country

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 21.1°N 126.0°E or 380 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gust of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon "AMBO" " is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas especially the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the southwest monsoon.

Meanwhile, an Active Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 870 km East of southern Mindanao 6.0°N, 134.0°E.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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Quoting spathy:
Thanks 1507. HurrMichaelOrl

Well the late 80s and the early 90s. With breaks in-between,are the regular E/W afternoon storm patterns I was referring to.
I guess it has been so many years without a normal season that Norm is no longer norm?


Spathy, I thought that was the time period you were referring to. True, that if it has been 20+ years since this norm has been consistent, Florida may be facing a new climatic reality. Or, we may be in the midst of the "dry rainy season" portion of some multi-decadal cycle that Florida has been experiencing for hundreds or thousands of years. If the latter is true, I hope we shift back to the wetter pattern soon.
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1573. rxse7en
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats what i figured i call em shooting stars
I believe they are jets. You can see vapor trails after they pass.
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Watching this cell in Arkansas. Environment there is pretty primed for large hail and a tornado or two
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I wouldn't want to be anywhere near this right now

Unless you're flying with the hurricane hunters, that would be pretty cool :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats what i figured i call em shooting stars


Yeah, same thing pretty much haha


Severe storms are looking to ramp up before too long
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Me too, in-fact our thunderstorms are really the only thing about Florida summers that I enjoy.

Spathy, in regards to our regular rainy season pattern, which years do you contend were the most recent years we had a "normal" rainy season in Florida? Over the past 10-15 years, we seem to have more ULLs, high pressure and fronts interrupt our rainy season (also nearby tropical cyclones).



Indeed, the last 2 years rainfall came mainly from fronts that would stall and bring heavy rain for 2 or 3 days followed by drier weather for a few days. Unfortunately as we are heading into June things appear to be following that trend again. I don't see any sign of a sea breeze type situation. When we have gotten a sea breeze type setup typically we end up having a giant upper ridge over head which keeps the thunderstorms tame and isolated. Either way, I am beginning to wonder if the tropical diurnal thunderstorm rain season is becoming a a great Florida past time rather than something that still exists. It's that it has gone away completely over the past several years, but it only occurs it seems for short periods rather than a season. It drives me nuts that we are continuing to hear about "cold fronts" coming down and sweeping across Florida into June. I don't know how things got this but it is weird truly.
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1565. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting tornadodude:


Im guessing meteors
thats what i figured i call em shooting stars
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I wouldn't want to be anywhere near this right now

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What are those things flying across the top? planes? seem to move too slowly compared to the clouds


Im guessing meteors
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
1562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I really can't wait for December 22nd...
neither can i
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
I really can't wait for December 22nd...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6068
1560. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think we are experiencing a shift in the paradigm...

and getting stronger faster and faster
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting K8eCane:


Good Grief. I had a fire last year too right after Irene. Was out for 4 months because of restoration. Sorry to hear about that


So sorry to hear about your fire. Mine was 100%, so started all over. I am enjoying putting in a new backyard and garden. So far my kids have helped me put in a patio and grill pad off the back deck with a picket fence around it and you go through an arbor to get into main back yard. I have flower beds on either side of the grill pad and patio. They are side by side. I have some great kids.
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Quoting Thrawst:
It's so sunny today in the Bahamas :')
LOL... even the heat feels different... :o)
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Me too, in-fact our thunderstorms are really the only thing about Florida summers that I enjoy.

Spathy, in regards to our regular rainy season pattern, which years do you contend were the most recent years we had a "normal" rainy season in Florida? Over the past 10-15 years, we seem to have more ULLs, high pressure and fronts interrupt our rainy season (also nearby tropical cyclones).
I'm thinking from 2000-2004 we had some pretty strong afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms. A couple of times I got caught driving in those and had to pull over because I couldn't see the car in front of me. One was in Tarpon Springs and the other one was right over the Howard Frankland bridge actually we made it across the bridge but when we got to the other side that's when we pulled over.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What are those things flying across the top? planes? seem to move too slowly compared to the clouds


I'm pretty sure they're planes. And if they're not planes, they're aliens.
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1555. nigel20
I'm going to have dinner...BBL!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7853
Quoting spathy:
Thanks 1507. HurrMichaelOrl

Well the late 80s and the early 90s. With breaks in-between,are the regular E/W afternoon storm patterns I was referring to.
I guess it has been so many years without a normal season that Norm is no longer norm?
I think we are experiencing a shift in the paradigm...
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
This might be one of the coolest GIFs I've ever seen...



What are those things flying across the top? planes? seem to move too slowly compared to the clouds
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1552. K8eCane
Quoting aislinnpaps:
The good news about the rain due beginning Wednesday though is it would really help my new garden I just put in out back and the smaller one started in the front. After the house fire last year, I've had to start all over. But I'd be afraid to leave the kids in charge of the dogs for more than a week, rain means it'll be cooler for them as well.


Good Grief. I had a fire last year too right after Irene. Was out for 4 months because of restoration. Sorry to hear about that
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1551. nigel20
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think it will be able to make minimum Cat 3 level, at 105 kts. But it's about to hit a wall of shear....


Thanks much!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7853
Hey, Spathy -- good to see you in Wunder(ground) World! Can't blame you for asking about the pattern for this summer's rainy season.

When the Cape's city council gave itself a slate of tighter watering restrictions to impose on us, was the first I heard anyone here mention that the Cape has been in a drought for the last 7 years. Now I see your mention of the annual rainy season being poorer for many years now. I wonder if we'll ever (a) have someone knowledgeable examine the causes of this and "forecast" what SW Florida can reasonably expect in the next decade or two; (b) if our respective cities or region will ever start cloud seeding. (I was recently shocked to hear how extensive Texas's cloud-seeding program has been for at least the last few years.)

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Quoting nigel20:

Very nice!
How strong do you think it will get?


I think it will be able to make minimum Cat 3 level, at 105 kts. But it's about to hit a wall of shear....

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Quoting nofailsafe:


We've had a general lack of diurnal thunderstorms around here in Houston the past couple of years. From what I collect, I should be getting rained on much more frequently this time of year.



EDIT:

Curiously, it's about normal (temperature-wise) this year. Not bad.

Hobby tends to get seabreeze storms that pop up during the summer. IAH doesn't get those storms, so it tends to be warmer, with slightly less rain. IAH in general is more representative of the city's weather, as Hobby's weather is on the edge of the area that is directly moderated by Galveston Bay, while IAH is not.
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1547. nigel20
Quoting WxGeekVA:




Very nice!
How strong do you think it will get?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7853

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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