The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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1647. help4u
lol!!!!!!!!!!!
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anyone looking at the storms coming into NJ from PA?...any chance they go severe? some had warnings a little while ago
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1645. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a pinhole eye or no?
I see a little dark speck at center but havent been keeping up with Mawar the last few days.

It also appears one of the sites i was using for models has lost their domain or something, a real bummer.
It was a good site too.


Currently it's an embedded center. It's had an eye on & off.

This sudden strengthening wasn't forecast. A few of the CHIPS ensembles saw it coming.

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Quoting help4u:
I thought the AGW services did not start till 9:00 on Sunday night?

Depends what time zone you are in! Its 1.30 am Monday morning here!
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1643. help4u
I thought the AGW services did not start till 9:00 on Sunday night?
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1642. Patrap
Quoting observing:
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Here's a nice simple way to get into perspective the effects of heat on differently coloured surfaces.
go to a car park/lot as the US lot call it, on a hot sunny day and carefully put a hand on the surface of what you call the hood. (bonnet in English,) or other flat surface that is more or less level.
You will notice that the darker the colour the vehicle the hotter the surface is. in fact any colour darker than yellow or beige is at about mid day too hot to touch and when you get to dark green or brown its unbearable to touch.
Now think about this from the point of view of the surface of the planet. If its white its cool and if its not its uncool!
Simple. Less white more fright and snowball effect turns into domino effect!
Calm seas reflect, turbulent seas absorb.Forests hold heat, deserts loose it.
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1640. Patrap
But a warming planet is also linked to increases in severe drought and flooding around the world, putting people, crops and livestock at greater risk.


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Morning Mawar.
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Quoting tornadodude:


I wouldnt expect much out there. Maybe one decent storm. Dryline seems to be retreating.



Also, when tropical forecasting, do people disregard the 06z and 18z runs on the models like we generally do for storm chasing?


Good evening t-dude. Depends who you ask but from the reliable sources I trust - yes. More confidence is placed in the 0z and 12z runs.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Areas under low trees many times is the first to melt after snowfall. The tree canopy blocks outgoing longwave radiation and re-emits it back to the surface, causing faster melting.

Watch a time-lapse camera of snow melt sometime... pay particular attention to areas next to and under shrubs and trees.


wait do low trees melt the snow faster and high trees make it melt faster? Here in GA when it snows, the slow melts last under trees and in shade.
But then there is also less snow under the trees so i dont know what the exact relationship is.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
possible rope tornado on the 1st of June.
this would have been cool to be close to:


Although hard to say without video or being there in person, it may not be a tornado. Typically they are smooth in appearance on the outside of the rotating. Perhaps this is the very end of the rope stage...
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1634. Patrap
..."swoooosh, ahhhhhhh"



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The 30 day SOI is rising again after falling to around -3. Keep in mind that the El Nino threshold is -8 and below.

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Quoting spathy:


RevElvis
Does this thought process make sense to you? When was the last time you have seen the snow melt in a forest faster than in an open field?

Its warmer,fine.
Tundra on the retreat,fine.
Snow melting faster due to brown branch cover?
Not so fine.
Just sayin.
Carry on.


Areas under low trees many times is the first to melt after snowfall. The tree canopy blocks outgoing longwave radiation and re-emits it back to the surface, causing faster melting.

Watch a time-lapse camera of snow melt sometime... pay particular attention to areas next to and under shrubs and trees.
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1631. Patrap
Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM

Posted June 1, 2012 with 381 reads


Rebecca Leber reports that “the world’s air has reached what scientists call a troubling new milestone for carbon dioxide, the main global warming pollutant.”

Monitoring stations across the Arctic this spring are measuring more than 400 parts per million of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere. The number isn’t quite a surprise, because it’s been rising at an accelerating pace. Years ago, it passed the 350 ppm mark that many scientists say is the highest safe level for carbon dioxide. It now stands globally at 395. [Washington Post]

It’s been at least 800,000 years — probably more — since Earth saw carbon dioxide levels in the 400s….

Readings are coming in at 400 and higher all over the Arctic. They’ve been recorded in Alaska, Greenland, Norway, Iceland and even Mongolia. But levels change with the seasons and will drop a bit in the summer, when plants suck up carbon dioxide, NOAA scientists said.

“It’s an important threshold,” said Carnegie Institution ecologist Chris Field, a scientist who helps lead the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “It is an indication that we’re in a different world."
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possible rope tornado on the 1st of June.
this would have been cool to be close to:
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:



I remember towards the end of the outbreak when it was rolling across Pennsylvania I had to take cover and an EF2 tornado i think touched down very close to where i was.... I was very scared
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Quoting RevElvis:
Global warming turns tundra to forest-study

Trust.Org (Reuters)

I don't brake for trolls !

Weather or not.
You break for trolls, or simply break them!Is not going to be that important if the tundras are going to become reforested!
I am personally sceptical about reforesting of tundra at this early stage of climatic adjustment to human interference. I much prefer to see what the methane and other nasty frozen compounds are going to get up to, whilst we still have breath to draw!
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Now someone at the SPC is like "Darn it , I told you not to issue that watch!!!!"

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Global Warming Talk, Mentioning of Katrina, and The April 27th Outbreak?

This is asking for trouble haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Found this when looking back at Katrina pics...one of the coolest/most ominous weather pictures I've ever seen...Katrina's stadium effect:

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Remember when we were wanting 2012 to beat 2004?
It will take a lot of tropical landfalls to catch us up now:


Also Tanner and Harvest AL have a knack for getting slammed by tornadoes.
A history of the major Tanner Tornadoes:

On April 3, 1974, the area was struck by the Super Outbreak; two violent stovepipe tornadoes that were both one-third of a mile in width hit the community within 30 minutes during the early nighttime hours. The two tornadoes were classified as both F5 events in the city itself on the Fujita scale, respectively, although the NWS classified the second tornado as a F4.[2] After the first tornado passed through the area, a second tornado surprised the rescue effort. In total, 50 were killed by those tornadoes.

On April 27, 2011, during what some meteorologists call the "2011 Super Outbreak", Tanner and other surrounding communities were hit by a large violent tornado that was rated an EF5.[3] 11 people perished in the county from the wedge tornado which was over 1 mile wide and killed 72 people overall. The tornado marks the third F5 or EF5 to strike Tanner and the surrounding communities in Limestone County.

On March 2, 2012 around 8:30 AM to 2 PM, five tornadoes struck just outside of town but hit the towns of Meridianville and Harvest. The first tornado was rated EF3, the second tornado struck 30 minutes later and was rated EF2, the third one hit within 20 minutes but was weak and rated EF1. Finally the fourth and fifth tornadoes were weak and both were rated EF0. All 5 were caused by 4 individual supercell thunderstorms.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:
Storms are beginning to fire on the dry line.

Link


I wouldnt expect much out there. Maybe one decent storm. Dryline seems to be retreating.



Also, when tropical forecasting, do people disregard the 06z and 18z runs on the models like we generally do for storm chasing?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
18z GFS shows Carlotta...



And Chris

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7920
hey guys I don't know about GFS and this W Caribbean/GOM storm that it if forecasting cause GFS is up to its old tricks again of pushing to development of this system back in trems of time frame
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Where would the doom level go if this was in the Gulf?



Probably not as high as it was with this girl bearing down on the coast:



Or this one...

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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
man that day was epic very tragic day as well no one will forget april 27th 2011.


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7920
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Check Tornado Watch #235

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$
man that day was epic very tragic day as well no one will forget april 27th 2011.
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Storms are beginning to fire on the dry line.

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Check Tornado Watch #235

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$

I did, and then I put it in my comment :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7920
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This is by far the most epic watch ever... PDS tornado watch 232 from the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (90%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (90%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (90%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)



Check Tornado Watch #235

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Another Shelf cloud approaching my house....
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Global warming turns tundra to forest-study

Trust.Org (Reuters)

I don't brake for trolls !
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Quoting jeffs713:

Did you bring enough for everyone on the blog?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Can I come?



Enough for all! Since I can't contribute to the typhoon info, thought I'd make dinner for those of you who can.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
severe thunderstorm watch 346 is a very wimpy watch.
i can just imagine the guys at the SPC saying "Do we really need this? Oh what the heck, lets do it just in case."

This is by far the most epic watch ever... PDS tornado watch 235 from the April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (>95%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (>95%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (>95%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7920
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
severe thunderstorm watch 346 is a very wimpy watch.
i can just imagine the guys at the SPC saying "Do we really need this? Oh what the heck, lets do it just in case."

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

WS 0346
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : <05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 60%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 29035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU6.

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Definitely a pinhole.



Lol, no, in reality it is just where the eye hasn't cleared out completely.


or where it hasnt filled in...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To be fair I don't think you are giving the GFS enough credit. It is known to have predicted many, many tropical cyclones well in advance. The MJO is expected to return around that time frame anyways, and pressures should be lowering across the West Atlantic.

That is true... Still too far away to really get interested in though... And while the GFS does predict some storms well in advance, it probably predicts at least 10 that don't materialize for each one that does.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7920
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Where would the doom level go if this was in the Gulf?



If that was happening in the Gulf, DOOM:CON would be at the highest level.
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severe thunderstorm watch 346 is a very wimpy watch.
i can just imagine the guys at the SPC saying "Do we really need this? Oh what the heck, lets do it just in case."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a pinhole eye or no?
I see a little dark speck at center but havent been keeping up with Mawar the last few days.

It also appears one of the sites i was using for models has lost their domain or something, a real bummer.
It was a good site too.

Definitely a pinhole.



Lol, no, in reality it is just where the eye hasn't cleared out completely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Where would the doom level go if this was in the Gulf?

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7920
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think that tells us something... Right now I'm treating this as nothing more than a long range GFS fantasy storm... If it continues to move up the time frame and the Euro and others catch on when it gets in their range then it will be something to watch out for.

To be fair I don't think you are giving the GFS enough credit. It is known to have predicted many, many tropical cyclones well in advance. The MJO is expected to return around that time frame anyways, and pressures should be lowering across the West Atlantic.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Euro doesn't extend out that far.


It will be important to see when it reaches the Euro 10 days if GFS continues with it and EC jumps,then we have ballgame.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning Mawar!



is that a pinhole eye or no?
I see a little dark speck at center but havent been keeping up with Mawar the last few days.

It also appears one of the sites i was using for models has lost their domain or something, a real bummer.
It was a good site too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Euro doesn't extend out that far.

I think that tells us something... Right now I'm treating this as nothing more than a long range GFS fantasy storm... If it continues to move up the time frame and the Euro and others catch on when it gets in their range then it will be something to watch out for.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7920

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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