The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting pottery:
If we accept those numbers, and the causation, then the lack of confirmation from the US Authorities is tantamount to the withholding of information that we would expect from Communist Russia or China.....

Can the numbers be true ?



Check this Russian guy attitude....

Link
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1696. K8eCane
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Dont know if this is a debris ball or not, will have to analyze next few radar images.
I dont have any special radars though.



What is a debris ball?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


There are studies that have been published.... from Chernobyl, TMI and now Fukushima...


Can I get the links please? I find this doubtful and probably not true...
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


No more rain... I hate it when it rains in summer because the pool gets cold, and if it thunders with the rain it gets closed. And I like going to the pool in summer!
If you haven't picked up on it yet I'm making fun of those Floridians who can't seem to get rain for some odd reason.Because "something" in the atmosphere is always stopping it.
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Ahhgg!! So good to have Saharan dust in my lungs....



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Quoting Skyepony:
sunlinerpr~ You know it wouldn't just be Oregon. Looks very grim. If that pool in #4 goes officials are saying most of the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable. I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans. It's figured atleast 20,000 healthy infants in the United States died from what's on the wind so far. This is a steep price for electricity.


Proof of Fukushima fallout killing tens of thousands of Americans please!
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Dont know if this is a debris ball or not, will have to analyze next few radar images.
I dont have any special radars though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting Skyepony:
sunlinerpr~ You know it wouldn't just be Oregon. Looks very grim. If that pool in #4 goes officials are saying most of the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable. I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans. It's figured atleast 20,000 healthy infants in the United States died from what's on the wind so far. This is a steep price for electricity.


Agreed, Sky.... That is a study that many interests try to hide... And that figure is in the US... Imagine how catastrophic it is in Japan...

I've been trying to post that reality here using videos and information... Checking the sources first.... But seems like that could bring the blogger into banning for posting non weather related content...
So I'm into weather...
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1688. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:
sunlinerpr~ You know it wouldn't just be Oregon. Looks very grim. If that pool in #4 goes officials are saying most of the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable. I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans. It's figured atleast 20,000 healthy infants in the United States died from what's on the wind so far. This is a steep price for electricity.

Those numbers are appalling, Skye.
And if those numbers are "true" and have not been made widely/publicly known/confirmed, then this is doubly appalling.

If we accept those numbers, and the causation, then the lack of confirmation from the US Authorities is tantamount to the withholding of information that we would expect from Communist Russia or China.....

Can the numbers be true ?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The rain will sure be nice hearing it tap on the ground outside :).


No more rain... I hate it when it rains in summer because the pool gets cold, and if it thunders with the rain it gets closed. And I like going to the pool in summer!
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1686. gator23
Quoting xcool:


12z gfs ensemble


Hello panhandle?
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The rain will sure be nice hearing it tap on the ground outside :).
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1684. bappit
"I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans."

Bring out the dead!
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1683. Patrap
If they lose the SFP in Bldg. #4

It could take 50 years to contain.

And we all walk south.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


The public is clueless and doesn't know that


Hurricane's most lethal danger: Inland flooding
May 16, 2011|Ken Kaye, Sun Sentinel

The most prolific killer in hurricanes and tropical storms isn’t the strong winds, the battering waves or tornadoes but rather inland flooding, accounting for 59 percent of all tropical-system related deaths.

About a quarter of those deaths are the result of people attempting to drive on water-cover roadways, unexpectedly sinking into holes and drowning, said hurricane specialist John Cangialosi of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County.
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1681. Patrap

Hurricane Watches & Warnings

The National Weather Service issues alerts that relate specifically to tropical storms and hurricanes. It’s important to know what each alert means.

Tropical Storm Watch - Tropical storm conditions with sustained winds from 39 to 73 mph are possible in your area within the next 36 hours (1.5 days).

Inland Tropical Storm Watch - Issued for interior counties when sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph associated with a tropical storm are possible within 36 hours (1.5 days).

Tropical Storm Warning - Tropical storm conditions are expected in your area within the next 24 hours (1 day).

Inland Tropical Storm Warning - Issued for interior counties when sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph associated with a tropical storm are expected within 24 hours (1 day).

Hurricane Watch - Hurricane conditions (sustained winds greater than 73 mph) are possible in your area within 36 hours (1.5 days).

Inland Hurricane Watch - Issued for interior counties when sustained winds of 74 mph or greater associated with a hurricane are possible within 36 hours (1.5 days).
Hurricane Warning - Hurricane conditions are expected in your area in 24 hours or less (less than 1 day).

Inland Hurricane Warning - Issued for interior counties that sustained winds of 74 mph or greater associated with a hurricane are expected within 24 hours (less than 1 day).

If you live near the ocean, you should also be aware of the following alerts:

Coastal Flood Watch - The possibility exists for the flooding of land areas along the coast within the next 12 to 36 hours.

Coastal Flood Warning - Land areas along the coast are expected to become, or have become, flooded by sea water above the typical tide action.
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1680. Skyepony (Mod)
sunlinerpr~ You know it wouldn't just be Oregon. Looks very grim. If that pool in #4 goes officials are saying most of the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable. I'm floored it's been confirmed Fukushima has already killed ten's of thousands of Americans. It's figured atleast 20,000 healthy infants in the United States died from what's on the wind so far. This is a steep price for electricity.
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1679. Guysgal
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

northwest Alabama
northeast Arkansas
the Missouri bootheel
northern Mississippi
western and middle Tennessee

Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 710 PM until
300 am CDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 2.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 60 statute
miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of
Jonesboro Arkansas to 35 miles north of Huntsville Alabama. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou8).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information... continue... ww 345... ww 347...

Discussion... sctd tstms have formed over W TN in zone of modest low
lvl waa/moisture transport along weak WNW-ESE front. Sufficient low
to mid lvl speed/directional shear appears present for supercells
with hail... locally dmgg wind... and possibly a couple tornadoes
given that weak convergence may allow for a somewhat extended period
of discrete/semi-discrete storms in a moisture-rich environment.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
550. Mean storm motion vector 28025.
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Quoting tornadodude:


Most of the public lacks common sense :p


It isn't really common sense yet, it's something we've started to learn the hard way within the last decade or so. Not saying it wasn't known before, but it was not widely known, accepted, or communicated.
Ike and Katrina have helped to open up eyes on this matter, unfortunately.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


The public is clueless and doesn't know that


Most of the public lacks common sense :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
1676. bappit
.
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If anyone is interested 9 tornado's were confirmed in Maryland from Friday...And I have RAIN :) in my forecast .Yes that's right R-A-I-N.Ha ha.
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Quoting tornadodude:


Well yeah, the scale is based solely on wind speed. Whereas a hurricane obviously has other dangers, like flooding, storm surge, tornadoes.


The public is clueless and doesn't know that
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Good, to see that blocking stream protecting Japan that will take Mawar ENE....

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Something he wanted to tell you that he couldn't until he retired from TWC and now heads the NWS in San Angelo TX. His message:

"Trusting in the Saffir-Simpson scale with its 1-5 category rankings....COULD KILL YOU"



Dr. Steve Lyons


Well yeah, the scale is based solely on wind speed. Whereas a hurricane obviously has other dangers, like flooding, storm surge, tornadoes.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
Something he wanted to tell you that he couldn't until he retired from TWC and now heads the NWS in San Angelo TX. His message:

"Trusting in the Saffir-Simpson scale with its 1-5 category rankings....COULD KILL YOU"



Dr. Steve Lyons
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I was not expecting Tennesee tornados or a tornado watch.
guesst things happen.
And watch 346 was a bust
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Mawar....Going annular?

Just coming back from a 2nd banning in less than 2 weeks....

first - for posting different free cloud services available

second - for posting the Fukushima contaminated tuna video



"Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only".

So no Fukushima Updates.... allowed... Even if it blows up and the Jet stream carries no. 4 reactor to Oregon :)

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Quoting PlazaRed:

I supose we will debate anything under the sun,or moon, when there is nothing else much to ponder over.
Its past 2am here and I'm baling out.
Good night All.
Good night... I'm bailing too...
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Well, speaking of work, I gotta go... I'll check in later when / if the night crew gets in...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Pat and spathy, u r making me laugh... all the in depth discussion of whether snow melts under trees, and u guys r wrangling over a Fresca....


I supose we will debate anything under the sun,or moon, when there is nothing else much to ponder over.
Its past 2am here and I'm baling out.
Good night All.
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Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, thats how I should have worded it haha
I guess if a system shows up in 3-4 runs in a row, you feel pretty sure it's going to pan out... but the 6 / 18z runs are usually not as reliable... remember one day last year where the 00z had a storm [forget which one now] recurving up towards Newfoundland; the 06Z had it running along the N coast of South America.... talk about mood swing...
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I hope this thing the models are bringing up won't wait until three weeks from now to show up... I have PLANS for that weekend and would hate to miss the tropical development in the process... frankly, I'd be glad for a quiet June. In July I have more free time to storm-watch since things are relatively slow at work...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Not so much disregard as use with caution....



Yeah, thats how I should have worded it haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
Quoting xcool:


12z gfs ensemble


This has been suggested by earlier GFS runs last week, perhaps they're starting to coalesce on a solution and perhaps that solution is something more interesting than just more capping.
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Pat and spathy, u r making me laugh... all the in depth discussion of whether snow melts under trees, and u guys r wrangling over a Fresca....

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Quoting spathy:


Plaza
That explains the melting on the branches ....
NOT under them. LOL

Micro climates have a lot to answer for with these kinds of things.
Basically the snow on the branches melts first normally because the branches being darker warm up in the sunlight and hence conduct the heat to the snow on them which then melts rapidly on sunny days.
On cloudy days the snow remains on the branches much longer as there id no conducted heat to it.
The blanket effect of the forest holds the little heat that there is on calm days and hence might contribute to earlier melting on the ground. Added to this there might be an effect where the ground has suffered a snap freeze at the surface, supporting snow at 0/C but in a short period of time the surface rewarms from beneath to melt the new snow. There are always a lot of factors in these things, when you have cover above snow involved but all this is of course governed by the the fact that the temp has to be above 0/C, 32/F to melt anything anyway.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL
KANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 345...WW 346...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
INVOF WEAK W-E FRONT OVER NRN OK AND PERHAPS FAR SRN KS...AND INVOF
NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...AND
POSSIBLY BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE DRIFTING ESE FROM SW
KS. DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...AROUND 30
KTS...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. COUPLED
QUALITY OF MOISTURE...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS LATER TNGT/EARLY MON...WITH
PREDOMINANT MOTION EXPECTED TO BE SE TO POSSIBLY SSEWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...CORFIDI
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
anyone else got an eye on these T'storms in NJ? one has 61dbz or 65dbz depending what radar you look at
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1655. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:




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Like X 100..Great Organization Folks
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Quoting tornadodude:


I wouldnt expect much out there. Maybe one decent storm. Dryline seems to be retreating.



Also, when tropical forecasting, do people disregard the 06z and 18z runs on the models like we generally do for storm chasing?
Not so much disregard as use with caution....

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1652. Patrap
Quoting spathy:


Ok :O)

But what do you think about the validity of that statement I asked about?

Nevermind.
Its clear that I can question statements that come from a similar mindset as mine.
But far be it for those of a dissimilar mindset to question their own.


You assume a lot, as I was quoting the articles premise.

Fresca?

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1650. beell
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Areas under low trees many times is the first to melt after snowfall. The tree canopy blocks outgoing longwave radiation and re-emits it back to the surface, causing faster melting.

Watch a time-lapse camera of snow melt sometime... pay particular attention to areas next to and under shrubs and trees.


Sometimes it's the drip, drip, drip of meltwater from the upper branches of the vegetation exposed to full sun. Course you have to have a bit more time on your hands than time-lapse provides to observe this.
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According to the models posted, we should start beginning to see some type of development(s) in around two weeks.
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1647. help4u
lol!!!!!!!!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.