The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

Share this Blog
51
+

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1747 - 1697

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kipperedherring:
One more time people! Who's with me?! Let's hear it for Tornadodude!!!!!!


lol chill out
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1745. pottery
Quoting sunlinepr:



Check this Russian guy attitude....

Link

Yep, I just watched that. An excellent video.Thanks.
I'm not disputing the possibility that there are several agendas in place.
I'm not doubting the dread effects of Nuclear situations.
I'm not doubting the possibility of fallout affecting millions.

And I am all for discussing this here on this blog, because it is WEATHER that moves these things from place to place, i.e. ocean currents, airflows, weather systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we'll see four more landfalls. A Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds just north of Brownsville Texas. A Category 4 hurricane ten miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. A tropical storm with 50 mph winds 75 miles north of Cape Hatteras, NC, and a Category 3 hurricane 10 miles east of New Orleans, LA.


This has been screen-capped for future reference
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we'll see four more landfalls. A Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds just north of Brownsville Texas. A Category 4 hurricane ten miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. A tropical storm with 50 mph winds 75 miles north of Cape Hatteras, NC, and a Category 3 hurricane 10 miles east of New Orleans, LA.
That's a pretty bold prediction..we'll see if it will come to pass.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1741. K8eCane
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we'll see four more landfalls. A Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds just north of Brownsville Texas. A Category 4 hurricane ten miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. A tropical storm with 50 mph winds 75 miles north of Cape Hatteras, NC, and a Category 3 hurricane 10 miles east of New Orleans, LA.


If that happens, i want you to read my palm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:



I knew a counselor that i worked with said that as a child in Lumberton NC he and his mom were thrown aways by a tornado but he said they both blacked out before it happened due to the pressure? I dont know except thats what he said but obviously as a drug treatment counselor and a very good one, he didnt know much about the weather



hmm bizarre!

Tornado Watches out tonight, but I honestly dont expect much out of them
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
How is accuweather going to boldly going to come out with a prediction saying three more landfalls?.

I think we'll see four more landfalls. A Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds just north of Brownsville Texas. A Category 4 hurricane ten miles southwest of Pensacola, Florida. A tropical storm with 50 mph winds 75 miles north of Cape Hatteras, NC, and a Category 3 hurricane 10 miles east of New Orleans, LA.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting sunlinepr:


Classic photo of a Massive sand storm from The Sahara

Link
Nice image.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How is accuweather going to boldly going to come out with a prediction saying three more landfalls?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
All is clear...



Sinking air with the sal dominates for now in the Tropical Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1733. Patrap
Semper Fi.

Lieutenant Colonel William Henry Rankin



Lieutenant Colonel William Henry Rankin (October 16, 1920 — July 6, 2009) is the only known person to survive a fall from the top of a cumulonimbus thunderstorm cloud.


He was a USMC pilot, and a World War II and Korean War veteran. He was flying an F-8 jet fighter over a cumulonimbus cloud when the engine stalled, forcing him to eject and parachute into the cloud. Colonel Rankin wrote a book about his experience, "The Man Who Rode the Thunder."
The fall

In the summer of 1959, Rankin was flying from South Weymouth Naval Air Station, Massachusetts to Beaufort, South Carolina. He climbed over a thunderhead that peaked at 45,000 ft (13.7 km), then—at 47,000 ft (14.3 km) & at mach 0.82—he heard a loud bump and rumble from the engine. The engine stopped, and a fire warning light flashed. He pulled the lever to deploy auxiliary power, and it broke off in his hand. Though not wearing a pressure suit, at 6:00 pm he ejected into the −50°C air.

He suffered immediate frostbite, and decompression caused his eyes, ears, nose, and mouth to bleed. His abdomen swelled severely. He managed to utilize his emergency oxygen supply. Five minutes after he abandoned the plane, his parachute hadn't opened. While in the upper regions of the thunderstorm, with near-zero visibility, the parachute opened. After ten minutes, Rankin was still aloft, carried by updrafts and getting hit by hailstones. Violent spinning and pounding caused him to vomit. Lightning appeared, which he described as blue blades several feet thick, and thunder that he could feel. The rain forced him to hold his breath to keep from drowning. One lightning bolt lit up the parachute, making Rankin believe he had died. Conditions calmed, and he descended into a forest. His watch read 6:40 pm. He searched for help and eventually was admitted into a hospital at Ahoskie, North Carolina. He suffered from frostbite, welts, bruises, and severe decompression.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1732. K8eCane
Quoting tornadodude:


honestly, Im not really sure, obviously depends on the strength of the tornado, but, Id say easily a thousand feet



I knew a counselor that i worked with said that as a child in Lumberton NC he and his mom were thrown aways by a tornado but he said they both blacked out before it happened due to the pressure? I dont know except thats what he said but obviously as a drug treatment counselor and a very good one, he didnt know much about the weather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:
me thinks me dont want to take a ride on a tornado

Good thought.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860


Classic photo of a Massive sand storm from The Sahara

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1729. K8eCane
me thinks me dont want to take a ride on a tornado
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
All is clear...


For now...Watch that thing be light up in a couple of weeks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1727. Patrap
Panama had a 4.7 fore-shock 13.7 hours before the 6.6 a lil while ago.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting K8eCane:


Amazing stuff...but how high can a tornado lift say a 250 lb person?


honestly, Im not really sure, obviously depends on the strength of the tornado, but, Id say easily a thousand feet
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1725. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:
Dallas Tornado RAW video Throwing Semi Trucks April 3rd 2012




wow! Well the semi was at least 50 ft in the air sooo....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All is clear...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
SAL all over PR today - Africa quiet... too early for the CV season

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1722. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't listen to him :P It's the signature on radar when a tornado is causing damage and the damage is being picked up in the air.


Oh, I was gonna come back around with the correct answer. I had a moment of weakness. Thanks.
:)

Primary characteristic of a debris ball is a tight area of much higher radar reflectivity adjacent to the inflow notch. Due to large airborne objects. Cars, sheet metal, foil coverd cows, etc. Tornadoes in the wide open spaces of Tornado Alley seldom display a true debris ball-nothing out there but dirt.

A debris ball-Vilonia, AR.
Note the higher (magenta) radar reflection.



Not a debris ball-a "hook echo".



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1721. Patrap
Dallas Tornado RAW video Throwing Semi Trucks April 3rd 2012

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1720. K8eCane
Quoting tornadodude:


It's not necessarily how high the debris is lofted, since the radar can scan at 0.5 degrees. It is more the amount of debris being picked up by the tornado.


Amazing stuff...but how high can a tornado lift say a 250 lb person?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SAL all over PR

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1718. Patrap
6.6 Quake by USGS South of Panama
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting K8eCane:



Thanks TA but its amazing that the tornado can chunk debris high enough for that to happen


It's not necessarily how high the debris is lofted, since the radar can scan at 0.5 degrees. It is more the amount of debris being picked up by the tornado.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1716. K8eCane
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't listen to him :P It's the signature on radar when a tornado is causing damage and the damage is being picked up in the air.



Thanks TA but its amazing that the tornado can chunk debris high enough for that to happen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1715. hydrus
Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..this blog will believe anything..I will also be posting the winning numbers to the Powerball next saturday..
Yo dude, it was my turn to do the numbers....Quit bogarting the number thing..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22710
1714. hydrus
Quoting K8eCane:



What is a debris ball?
When strong tornadoes are detected by radar, sometimes the debris thrown into the air by massive tornadoes can be seen on radar as a ball at the end of the hook echo...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22710
Magnitude
6.6
Date-Time
Monday, June 04, 2012 at 00:45:15 UTC
Sunday, June 03, 2012 at 06:45:15 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
5.304N, 82.582W
Depth
9.7 km (6.0 miles)
Region
SOUTH OF PANAMA
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting yqt1001:


Roke didn't seem to harm it last year and it pulled an EI over the Ryukyu islands.


It had tropical storm winds over Fukushima


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting help4u:
Millions of children are killed in the name of abortion i never hear anyone on this site complain.This site has some very strange views on life,etc!


Many accidents involving the lives of many americans have been silenced...

Wind weather patterns in the USA move from West to East... Everytime a forest fire or Dust storm goes over any of our nuclear cementeries we living East receive and breathe radioisotopes....



JET STREAM CARRY OUT OF US Nuclear FALLOUT Tests
Check Link

Study Estimating Thyroid Doses of I-131 Received by Americans From Nevada Atmospheric Nuclear Bomb Test, National Cancer Institute (1997) [1]
Author National Cancer Institute
Permission
(Reusing this file)

Created by National Cancer Institute as part of a Congressionally funded study. Acknowledgments do not indicate artwork was created by a contractor or give any reason to think that it is copyrighted. NCI copyright policy[2] says that works created by them are public domain. Artwork is of dubious "creativity" anyway (is a mapping of scientific facts onto US counties).


Link
The radioactive fallout from the test contaminated more US residents than any other nuclear test, and the Sedan Crater is the largest man-made crater in the United States, and is listed on the National Register of Historic Places.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


There is a huge probability of another Big quake in the area.

Even now, Mawar is predicted to almost miss Japan.... What is prediction goes wrong?

Anyone knows - What would be the effect of 120mph winds on this building?

Link
I realize this. That's why I'm not questioning the probabilities or odds of when. I'm looking for some proof of the effects world-wide. Because if we all need to start walking south...our members in the islands need a headstart and I need to go north and west before I go south. Not that I'd make it more than 20 miles in any direction.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:


The study published by the International Journal of Health Services claiming 14,000 US deaths due to radioactive fallout from Fukushima.

Don't listen to him :P It's the signature on radar when a tornado is causing damage and the damage is being picked up in the air.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
1708. beell
Quoting K8eCane:



What is a debris ball?


The study published by the International Journal of Health Services claiming 14,000 US deaths due to radioactive fallout from Fukushima.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1707. yqt1001
Quoting sunlinepr:


There is a huge probability of another Big quake in the area.

Even now, Mawar is predicted to almost miss Japan.... What is prediction goes wrong?

Anyone knows - What would be the effect of 120mph winds on this building?

Link


Roke didn't seem to harm it last year and it pulled an EI over the Ryukyu islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'd like some clarification on the issue of Fukishima/Daichi. Seems weather related as the jetstream moves around the planet. My questions would be:
.
1. What are the predicted effects in various areas of the Norther Hemisphere(and I would appreciate some clarification on what's already been posted). Because probability wise...it seems well above 50%, approaching 95%, that #4's gonna' go, and sooner than later.
.


There is a huge probability of another Big quake in the area.

Even now, Mawar is predicted to almost miss Japan.... What is prediction goes wrong?

Anyone knows - What would be the effect of 120mph winds on this building?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1705. ncstorm
Wow..this blog will believe anything..I will also be posting the winning numbers to the Powerball next saturday..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
I'd like some clarification on the issue of Fukishima/Daichi. Seems weather related as the jetstream moves around the planet. My questions would be:
.
1. What are the predicted effects in various areas of the Norther Hemisphere(and I would appreciate some clarification on what's already been posted). Because probability wise...it seems well above 50%, approaching 95%, that #4's gonna' go, and sooner than later.
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Dont know if this is a debris ball or not, will have to analyze next few radar images.
I dont have any special radars though.


No sir.


Just an appendage and inflow notch.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1701. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
9:00 AM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 21.6N 126.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 25.3N 129.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East southeast of Naha
48 HRS: 29.2N 135.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
72 HRS: 32.7N 143.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I really hope that Mawar misses Japan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
http://conspiracytheoriesdebunked.com/2012/03/27/ fukushima-nonsense-debunked-14000-u-s-deaths-tied- to-fukushima-reactor-disaster-fallout/


Thank you. This is the debunking that was needed. Now, back to the weather!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
If you haven't picked up on it yet I'm making fun of those Floridians who can't seem to get rain for some odd reason.Because "something" in the atmosphere is always stopping it.


Oh I get it now.... The Notorious "Tampa Shield"... Yeah, that sucks for them! -___-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
If we accept those numbers, and the causation, then the lack of confirmation from the US Authorities is tantamount to the withholding of information that we would expect from Communist Russia or China.....

Can the numbers be true ?



Check this Russian guy attitude....

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1747 - 1697

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron