The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Cell in Virginia doesnt look to shabby. Surface rotation needs to tighten up a bit, but nice circulation in the mid and upper levels

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting hydrus:
I like to say statistics are just numbers that have no control over actual events, and the way things have been going, statistics and analog year data that we base our forecasts and predictions for future storms on are practically worthless. Mother nature is putting new food in the pot so to speak.
The atmosphere loves to change, and we don't, the way the atmosphere works goes against typical human thought, even meteorologists many times.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

I just don't agree with CSU's analogue years though. I mean, 2009?

The Atlantic is much more moist, unstable, and favorable compared to that season.


I agree with you man.
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And here... we, go.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
EASTERN MARYLAND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
WILMINGTON DELAWARE TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH HILL
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NC
NWD ACROSS VA...THE DC AREA...MD EASTERN SHORE...AND INTO SRN PA. AT
FIRST...MORE ISOLATED STORMS EXHIBITING WEAK ROTATION WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS FROM NC INTO SERN VA. WITH TIME...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EVOLVE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREAD EAST. FOCUSED TORNADO THREAT
MAY ALSO EVOLVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE DC/BWI AREA
AND INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...CARBIN
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storms nearing Washington D.C. are exhibiting signs of rotation.

you can see it in the storm north of manassas i would say thats the best one on this radar
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TS Mawar is looking very good this afternoon (or night over in the WPAC):



I completed a blog post on TS Mawar for anyone interested:

Link

Hopefully the heavy rains Mawar is dropping over the Philippines do not cause numerous flash flood events.
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Quoting tornadodude:
Tornado watch will be issued for DC before too long. Could be a few tornadoes today

ty for the info, better alert my relatives up there..again ty
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
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Tornado watch will be issued for DC before too long. Could be a few tornadoes today

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
BBL
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8150
Storms nearing Washington D.C. are exhibiting signs of rotation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
Quoting LargoFl:
I sure think, with all this moisture around here, 2012 will be an interesting storm year for florida,i can just feel it


It will be an interesting year for sure, but that feeling of yours may just be gas. ;)
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Quoting LargoFl:
stay dry and safe ok
If the trough misses the disturbance in the gulf, they will get a lot more rain.24 hours..48 hours..
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Guys just so you know, actual rainfall totals are much higher than what radar is estimating around Central Florida due to high tropical moisture of course. For example, the radar thinks Tampa International has had only about a half inch, but they actually have had over 2 inches there, and Tampa International got less than most of Tampa as it usually does.

Also at my place the radar thinks we only had a quarter to half inch but we have had 1.79 so far.

So just letting everyone know, rainfall has been a lot more plentiful than it might seem from radar estimates. We had one line of thunderstorms come through earlier and the rainfall rate peaked at 4 inches per hour even though it was only like 50 to 55 DBZ.


While it hasn't erased the drought by any means helps ground moisture near the surface a lot, all the ponds and drain ditches are finally full to the brim again.


I'm very glad to see this today, unfortunately the second round developing off to the west which was supposed to be the strongest originally is looking pretty weak right now. However, at least we already have had a lot, maybe it will ramp up some later as it approaches.
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Quoting Bielle:
And we have rain -finally- rain and rain and rain, most of it today, but some again tomorrow and Sunday. All the local farmers are ecstatic. What a perfect day for some indoor art projects -from Blackstock, Ontario, Canada, a very small town to the east and north of Keeper of the Gates.
good for you folks up there, looks like the east coast rain is all moving northward..
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Do you think they can get a meteorology degree?


Im going to try.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
Localized street flooding here on siesta key especially near the public beach.More tropical downpours to come.Whats making the flooding worse is its high tide and the stormdrains back up!
stay dry and safe ok
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Localized street flooding here on siesta key especially near the public beach.More tropical downpours to come.Whats making the flooding worse is its high tide and the stormdrains back up!
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Quoting RussianWinter:

Do you guys have good drainage in place there?



Well Tampa sits for the most part just above sea level,when we get this much rain there is no where for the rain to go quickly!
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And we have rain -finally- rain and rain and rain, most of it today, but some again tomorrow and Sunday. All the local farmers are ecstatic. What a perfect day for some indoor art projects -from Blackstock, Ontario, Canada, a very small town to the east and north of Keeper of the Gates.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
125. SLU
Quoting LargoFl:
.........one hour ago in Tampa


Nissan 350z :D
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Quoting kflhuds05:
Off to work in a little bit Largo, so you know, it will either be pouring when I go to the car of take break later, lol. Don't wash away today :) Catch you all later...

Hudson, Fl weather
ok drive slow,stay safe
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.................................this one again in Tampa near Howard..some people just dont know to slow down huh
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Quoting LargoFl:
lol your right, but we need the rain huh..just looked at the radar, yep more on the way for us
Off to work in a little bit Largo, so you know, it will either be pouring when I go to the car of take break later, lol. Don't wash away today :) Catch you all later...

Hudson, Fl weather
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Chalk one up for the models guys. They did a nice job on the trough..Deep trough..
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Quoting nigel20:

The flooding is likely to get worst with more rain in the forecast
looks like it has sunk down below us for now but it will be back later on,just walked the dogs, humid and overcast but no rain here
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10 storms. All category 5 except the first 2 this year. ;) Perhaps I'll throw in a few tropical storms and category 1 or 2.

No, really though, I'm going to throw in 10 storms and early end to the season.
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Quoting hydrus:
Some people wanted it, and they got it..:)
gee did they ever
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Quoting LargoFl:
.........one hour ago in Tampa
Some people wanted it, and they got it..:)
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that picture is so painful to look at...DONT DRIVE YOUR PORSCHE INTO 12 INCHES OF STANDING WATER. or is that a Nissan 350Z? can't tell...either way, give me that nice car before you ruin it.

Quoting LargoFl:
.........one hour ago in Tampa
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Latest GFS keeps the NAO negative for a while..
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
That ridge still doesn't extend all the way to the coast though. It may not be nice for the Lesser and some of the Greater Antilles, but it still is not far enough west for NA. Besides Cape Verde season doesn't start for a couple of months yet and the position of the ridge can and will change. I just think there are too many variables to make long range forecasts of the position of the subtropical ridge other than that it will be in the subtropics ;~) It's all about timing of the storms.
I agree there, a lot can change until we get to cape verde season. The main thing I see out of this set up (weak a/b high) is that SSTs in the east and mid Atlantic will continue to warm (relative to the anomaly).
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Quoting LargoFl:
.........one hour ago in Tampa

Do you guys have good drainage in place there?
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Quoting LargoFl:
.........one hour ago in Tampa

The flooding is likely to get worst with more rain in the forecast
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8150
.........one hour ago in Tampa
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Believe it or not a good portion of the bloggers are 18 and under.

True!
But when you put Grothar, Me, and a couple of others in the mix, the average age goes up to 673...

Keep up the Good Work, you guys.

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting StormPro:



Ok... That's good to know. Thanks for the info.. it is appreciated for sure

No problem StormPro!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8150
Quoting nigel20:

Wow! You guys seems to have gotten quite a bit of rain over night?
sure did and more on the way they said..
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Researchers Raise tropical storm predictions...Link
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Quoting LargoFl:
................lots of flooded streets in Tampa, more rain is coming

Wow! You guys seems to have gotten quite a bit of rain over night?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8150
101. flsky
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


So, where is this?
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Believe it or not a good portion of the bloggers are 18 and under.


Do you think they can get a meteorology degree?
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Quoting nigel20:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes.



Ok... That's good to know. Thanks for the info.. it is appreciated for sure
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................lots of flooded streets in Tampa, more rain is coming
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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