The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado is likely occurring, or imminent near Damascus.

Very mean looking storm there... Good afternoon everyone and thanks Dr. Masters for the detailed blog.
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The trough should grab this thing..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20546
ECMWF out to 192 hours has a 1004mb low at the tail end of a front off the US East Coast but hasn't separated from the trough yet, let's see what transpires in the next few frames. That's where we are going to have to watch for development again.
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New Blog entry for cane season

Link

Thanks if you read it and if you dont thats okay too!
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20546
Henry Margusity Fan Club
Tornado on Traffic cam north of Damascus VA. Huge Kansas type wall cloud.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14618
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storms nearing Washington D.C. are exhibiting signs of rotation.
Not surprising at all.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20546
A rather squally day in the keys:


view Yesterday's Weather
Boca Chica Naval Air Station
Lat: 24.57 Lon: -81.68 Elev: 23
Last Update on Jun 1, 1:53 pm EDT

Heavy Rain and Breezy

74 °F
(23 °C)
Humidity: 91 %
Wind Speed: SW 21 G 33 MPH
Barometer: 29.96" (1014.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 71 °F (22 °C)
Visibility: 0.25 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
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Quoting Nash29:
Has Levi put out any tidbit videos today on the expected tropical development for next week?


Dr. Masters said in his blog today said that development is not expected between now and June 8.
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the Euro now has a Low off the SE coast..for the 12Z run

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14618
Tornado is likely occurring, or imminent near Damascus.
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Wonder if we will see a DC to Baltimore tornado.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


How much did you guys get in Tampa this morning as radar estimates are near 3" in some areas.


About 3".
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Likely a tornado here. Near Damascus, Maryland

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Storm headed towards Mt. Airy looks nasty.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31557
Tornadoes in the Washington DC Metro Area...Not something you'd see everyday.
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Nasty day for D.C. I'd be extremely tragic if the capital ended up getting hit.
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im pretty confident a tornado may have hit poolesville

storm has an even nastier hook now.
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Not warned yet, but the cell sw of DC is beginning to show signs of rotation.

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting LostTomorrows:
I'm surprised there was no mention of Beryl being the strongest US-landfalling tropical cyclone on record so early in the season.
There was either last blog or two blogs ago.
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At least I know I can call my mom (who works in Mt. Airy, Maryland) when there's something like this going on... no sirens were going off in the city when I called 15 minutes ago.
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I'm surprised there was no mention of Beryl being the strongest US-landfalling tropical cyclone on record so early in the season.
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Crap that storm SW of DC is looking nasty with nothing in its way. GR is not running for me so I am using NWS.
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2 (maybe 3?) cells lining up on the same path - I agree, that does look nasty.



Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Tornado warning NW of DC. That one looks rather nasty.
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Tornado warning NW of DC. That one looks rather nasty.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Not quite. 30% chance of it being somewhere in the watch area. Big difference.


There is a 50% chance of 2 or more tornadoes in the watch area.

There is a 30% chance of 1 or more strong tornadoes within the watch area.

So, theoretically, would there be a 15% chance of a strong tornado since there is a 50% chance of a tornado, and a 30% chance that one of those tornadoes is strong. 30% of 50% = 15% right? or am I way over thinking this haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Looks like the multisensor estimates created by Southeast RFC did a better job than the raw radar estimates from KTBW. Heaviest rainfall might have been just within the range where underestimates dominate, which is typically the area within 15-30mi from the radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

48-53dbz typically corresponds to about 4.0in/hr rainfall rate for storms along the gulf coast... 48dbz is closer for Tropical Z-R and 53dbz is closer for Convective Z-R. Only using the stratiform/cool rain Z-R relationships would a 55-60dbz reflectivity correspond to 4.00in/hr.


Yeah typically it seems that the radar estimates often are quite a bit less than actual totals during the wet season down here, and wow yes the RSC estimates definitely appear much more accurate, they are showing right on target with area rain gauges and my own home rain gauge.


My guess is that once the the public actually has access to view the products that go along with the radar upgrade that we will see a lot less of overestimation with "colder convection" and less underestimation with tropical convection. From what I remember even though the radar was already upgraded at Ruskin the public can't view the benefits until all the radars nationally are upgraded first.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31557
this one looks the most interesting at the moment.






annnnd right after I posted it got tornado warned:

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland...
northern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
southwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland...
northwestern Howard County in central Maryland...

* until 245 PM EDT

* at 215 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 8 miles
southwest of Green Valley... or 5 miles northwest of Germantown...
moving northeast at 30 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Green Valley...
Mount Airy..
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Looks like the multisensor estimates created by Southeast RFC did a better job than the raw radar estimates from KTBW. Heaviest rainfall might have been just within the range where underestimates dominate, which is typically the area within 15-30mi from the radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

48-53dbz typically corresponds to about 4.0in/hr rainfall rate for storms along the gulf coast... 48dbz is closer for Tropical Z-R and 53dbz is closer for Convective Z-R. Only using the stratiform/cool rain Z-R relationships would a 55-60dbz reflectivity correspond to 4.00in/hr.


Z-R?
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15 weatherh98: In Dr Masters blog, there is a chart which says tsr is predicting12.7 storms.. just LOL

As compared to the typical NOAA/NHC "Between 0 and 50, with a 40% chance of less than 0 and an 80% chance of more than 50, and a 130% chance of being between the two with a 97% chance of all three being wrong and an 18% chance of all 4 being wrong."
Okay a slight exaggeration, but their season predictions are so broad it'd darn near take a run-in with the DeathStar for them to be wrong. (Not that they haven't been.)

12.7 means nothing more than TSR favors 13(or a few more) over 12(or a few less)
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Here come the storms...



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Possible severe weather for the N.W. and Canada, and a rather strong back door cold front for New England, all kinds of records broken for Tennessee, including no (none) tornadoes recorded for Mid Tennessee in the month of May, a very rare occurrence, absolutely bizarre weather pattern insueing.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20546
strange...it doesn't look all that tornadic...



Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Got a tornado warning now.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Guys just so you know, actual rainfall totals are much higher than what radar is estimating around Central Florida due to high tropical moisture of course. For example, the radar thinks Tampa International has had only about a half inch, but they actually have had over 2 inches there, and Tampa International got less than most of Tampa as it usually does.

Also at my place the radar thinks we only had a quarter to half inch but we have had 1.79 so far.

So just letting everyone know, rainfall has been a lot more plentiful than it might seem from radar estimates. We had one line of thunderstorms come through earlier and the rainfall rate peaked at 4 inches per hour even though it was only like 50 to 55 DBZ.


While it hasn't erased the drought by any means helps ground moisture near the surface a lot, all the ponds and drain ditches are finally full to the brim again.


I'm very glad to see this today, unfortunately the second round developing off to the west which was supposed to be the strongest originally is looking pretty weak right now. However, at least we already have had a lot, maybe it will ramp up some later as it approaches.


Looks like the multisensor estimates created by Southeast RFC did a better job than the raw radar estimates from KTBW. Heaviest rainfall might have been just within the range where underestimates dominate, which is typically the area within 15-30mi from the radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

48-53dbz typically corresponds to about 4.0in/hr rainfall rate for storms along the gulf coast... 48dbz is closer for Tropical Z-R and 53dbz is closer for Convective Z-R. Only using the stratiform/cool rain Z-R relationships would a 55-60dbz reflectivity correspond to 4.00in/hr.
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Quoting Nash29:


The GOM disturbance will not get picked up by it as the trough is not expected to dig in that southerly.

The local mets in South Florida are making mention of no front forecast to come through time anytime soon.
It's definitely going to be picked up by the front.
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203 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
AMHERST COUNTY...

AT 201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIFFORD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLIFFORD...
LOWESVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
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Quoting hydrus:
The Doc mentions we might see a pattern like 04-05..That makes my stomach turn. Didnt you mention that Dr.M said that the Bermuda High had pretty much established itself?..It might not have been you..From todays blog....The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.



Would would be really nice is a bunch of tropical cyclones that are too weak to cause significant damage but just dump large amounts of heavy rain removing drought in regions.
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Got a tornado warning now. Tornado warning for the cell north of lynchburg. Is that old news?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


30% chance of an EF-2 of greater, centered over Washington DC.
Where is washingtonian115?
Not quite. 30% chance of it being somewhere in the watch area. Big difference.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
And here... we, go.




30% chance of an EF-2 of greater, centered over Washington DC.
Where is washingtonian115?
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azard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Moderate
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate


I don't like all the moderates...
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hey man, long time no see. Where in VA is that?


hey hey haha

its near Amherst, headed towards Lovingston
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:
Cell in Virginia doesnt look to shabby. Surface rotation needs to tighten up a bit, but nice circulation in the mid and upper levels



Hey man, long time no see. Where in VA is that?
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Cell in Virginia doesnt look to shabby. Surface rotation needs to tighten up a bit, but nice circulation in the mid and upper levels

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.