The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Virginia/DC have terrible traffic problems on their highways and interstates..this event is occuring at the worst possible time..
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My dad was driving through near mt. Airy and he said that he swears that he drove through a tornado
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3772
Just south of Damascus. Tornado likely on the ground.
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
You called that one, brief TVS, and it looks MEAN.





The storm in front of it is killing it though... Much weaker in new frame... I think that may be the theme today... Storms looking great one minute and then much worse the next because there are so many storms packed together.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
Quoting Doppler22:
Tornado Warned Storm heading directly at me


Where do you live?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting yqt1001:


It tried but stalled, it's too big. Conditions aren't as amazing for RI anymore though.

They don't need to be. Storms have been known for rapidly intensify in a marginally favorable environment. The problem Mawar has is its size and monsoonal origins. Those usually only strengthen gradually.
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Tornado Warned Storm heading directly at me
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3772
Quoting weatherh98:


they showed a new one and its crazy. trying to spin up


it looks like the helicopter is right up under the threat..not smart..
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The younger one should go just north of skyesville (sp)
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Quoting weatherh98:
Hide obama, bout to get hit by a severe tstorm



also two nice hook echos


The cell on 95 looks intersesting
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May Climate Information

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...SIXTH WARMEST MAY ON RECORD IN NASHVILLE AND THE WARMEST SINCE
1991...

MAY 2012 CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
NASHVILLE FOR THE 7TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH.

RECORD BREAKING HEAT OCCURRED ON MAY 26TH WHEN THE TEMPERATURE
CLIMBED TO 95 DEGREES BREAKING THE OLD RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 94
SET BACK OVER A HUNDRED YEARS AGO IN 1911. THE VERY NEXT DAY...MAY
27TH THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBED AGAIN TO 95 DEGREES...TYING THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE ALSO SET BACK IN 1911. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE
EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MAY AT NASHVILLE IS 96 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1937 ON MAY 31ST.

WARMEST MAY`S ON RECORD IN NASHVILLE...

1. 1962 WARMEST EVER
2. 1896
3. 1896
4. 1987
5. 1874
6. 2012

THE TEMPERATURE FOR MAY IN NASHVILLE AVERAGED 72.8 DEGREES WHICH
IS 5.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30-YEAR NORMAL. THE AVERAGE HIGH WAS 84.7
DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW WAS 60.9 DEGREES. HOTTEST TEMPERATURE
DURING THE MONTH WAS 95 DEGREES ON THE 26TH AND 27TH AND THE COOLEST
WAS 47 DEGREES ON THE 11TH. THERE WERE 9 DAYS WITH THE TEMPERATURE
AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

MAY...NORMALLY OUR WETTEST MONTH WAS ON THE DRY SIDE WITH A TOTAL
OF 4.01 INCHES OF RAIN IN NASHVILLE...WHICH IS 1.49 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GREATEST AMOUNT TO FALL IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD WAS 2.31
INCHES ON THE 12TH AND 13TH.

THERE WERE 6 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN MAY 2012. ON AVERAGE
NASHVILLE HAS 7 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN MAY.

HAIL OCCURRED ON MAY 29TH.

THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED WAS 5.1 MILES AN HOUR. THE FASTEST GUST WAS
43 MILES AN HOUR ON THE 29TH.

FOG OCCURRED ON 13 DAYS WITH DENSE FOG ON 1 DAY.

NO TORNADOES OCCURRED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Did yall see the image of the storm TWC showed for DC..I would be taking cover if I lived there..


they showed a new one and its crazy. trying to spin up
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

PAZ036-056-063-011945-
CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-PERRY PA-
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FRANKLIN...PERRY AND
WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 258 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ORRSTOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT NEWBURG...NEWVILLE...COLONEL DENNING STATE
PARK...LOYSVILLE AND NEW BLOOMFIELD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 201 AND 217...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 23 AND 30.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT ROUTE 11.

LAT...LON 4004 7769 4044 7746 4050 7734 4043 7708
4000 7754 3998 7766

$$

FORECASTER: LAMBERT
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You called that one, brief TVS, and it looks MEAN.




Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
looks like another tornado may track along the same path as the last one:

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Cell near Fredericksburg looks interesting



Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Storm going over Damascus now (not the one that went over it earlier) is really getting strong... It's tornado warned and has a great hook.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
i see a nasty hook s of manassas county to cross that eastern arm of the chesapeacke bay with no warning.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Whereabouts are you located?

Quoting Articuno:
Under a tornado watch.. just came home, I am scared. :(


I would disagree, things are looking pretty nasty right now and only look to be getting worse as the day goes on...yesterdays day two called high end slight risk, but they upped it at the first day one for today, and it looks like they made the right call.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Personally I think the moderate risk for today was unnecessary... There's definitely a risk for tornadoes but I don't its high enough for the moderate risk... A high end slight would've been enough... Of course it only takes one, just like with hurricanes.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Did yall see the image of the storm TWC showed for DC..I would be taking cover if I lived there..
yes, this clipped from ABC news washington...........Right now, it appears the Greater Washington area will see the highest probability of severe weather between 6 this evening and Midnight. Strong winds and hail will be likely features of the stronger storms along with periods of heavy rain. Flash flooding may be an issue later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Mid and upper level atmospheric dynamics will also support formation of isolated tornadoes.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It looked like it was starting RI last night but never really did... Maybe it will happen tonight.


It tried but stalled, it's too big. Conditions aren't as amazing for RI anymore though.
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Did yall see the image of the storm TWC showed for DC..I would be taking cover if I lived there..
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Quoting yqt1001:
Mawar has a nice CDO.


It looked like it was starting RI last night but never really did... Maybe it will happen tonight.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
Hide obama, bout to get hit by a severe tstorm



also two nice hook echos

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looks like another tornado may track along the same path as the last one:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting Articuno:
Under a tornado watch.. just came home, I am scared. :(
stay away from the windows
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Personally I think the moderate risk for today was unnecessary... There's definitely a risk for tornadoes but I don't its high enough for the moderate risk... A high end slight would've been enough... Of course it only takes one, just like with hurricanes.
......................NWS says in the DC area it will comes in 2 stages today and tonight, tornado watches and severe storm watches til 9pm tonight,DC area is especially vulnerable they said
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Under a tornado watch.. just came home, I am scared. :(
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TWC has reported damage near where the tornado warned storm was however it appears it was from non-tornadic winds. A funnel cloud was also confirmed.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
Mawar has a nice CDO.

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Personally I think the moderate risk for today was unnecessary... There's definitely a risk for tornadoes but I don't its high enough for the moderate risk... A high end slight would've been enough... Of course it only takes one, just like with hurricanes.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
this from NBC washington........Tornado warnings and watches have been issued for the D.C. area.

A warning for eastern Carroll County, Md., expires at 3:45 p.m. Radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 11 miles south of Gambe, 9 miles northeast of Damascus, moving northeast at 25 mph.

A warning is in effect for eastern Frederick, northern Montgomery, southern Carroll and northwestern Howard counties in Maryland until 3 p.m. At 2:34 p.m., radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Damascus and moving northeast at 30 mph.

The Frederick Transportation Department said it will not transport students while the warning is in effect. Buses that had left schools have returned to shelter.

Earlier warnings expired at 2:45 p.m. More are possible throughout the day.

People in the warned areas should take cover immediately. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and stay away from windows. People who are outdoors, in mobile homes or vehicles should seek substantial shelter immediately and beware of flying debris.

The storms have produced a lot of lightning and powerful winds, and heavy rain are affecting areas that aren't under warnings.

Tornado watches have been issued for the entire D.C. metro area until 9 p.m.

A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 3:30 p.m. for southern Frederick, northwestern Montromgery, western Howard and eastern Loudoun counties. At 2:33 p.m., radar indicated a storm capable of winds in excess of 60 mph near Lansdowne and moving northeast at 25 mph.

Another is in effect until 3:30 p.m. for southern Montgomery, northwestern Arlington, eastern Prince William and central Fairfax counties, as well as the cities of Fairfax and Falls Church. At 2:42 p.m., radar indicated a storm capable of winds stronger than 60 mph near Lake Ridge and 6 miles north of Dale City and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Several storms south of the D.C. region are not severe but could develop.

A severe thunderstorm warning for Frederick (MD), Montgomery, Carroll, Howard and Loudoun counties expired at 2:45 p.m.

Strong thunderstorms are likely Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may produce damaging winds, heavy flooding rains and possible hail, according to Storm4 meteorologist Veronica Johnson.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the D.C. area from a slight risk of severe storms to a moderate risk of severe storms. The SPC says we have a 15 percent chance of tornadoes, a 15 percent chance of hail and a 30 percent chance of damaging winds (58 mph or greater).

That 15 percent chance of tornadoes is unusually high for our area, according to Johnson.

The following tornado safety information is from Loudoun County's website:




The general rule for tornado safety is “go low and get low,” meaning go to the lowest level of the structure away from windows and crouch in a low position with your head covered.

When severe thunderstorms threaten, weather experts advise people to pay close attention to weather forecasts, watches, and warnings. Environmental clues that may indicate an approaching tornado include a dark, often greenish sky, large hail, and a loud roar similar to a freight train. To alert the public about possible tornadoes, the National Weather Service issues watches and warnings.

A tornado watch means that weather conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. If a watch is broadcast, stay tuned for further information, possible warnings, and be prepared to take cover.

A tornado warning means a tornado has actually been sighted or is indicated by radar. Warnings are issued for individual counties and include the tornado’s location, direction, and speed.

•Do not attempt to look for the tornado.
•If you are in or near its path, seek shelter immediately.


If you're traveling out of the D.C. area, you can still find a risk of storms east to Delaware, on the Eastern Shore, into southern New Jersey, into western Maryland, south to Richmond and even to Roanoke.

If you’re going to be out and about this Friday evening and driving, and if you come upon high water, do not attempt to drive through it.

Most of the rain should be ending after midnight.

As of now, Saturday afternoon and Sunday are looking dry and mild with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s.


------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------




Get the latest weather from NBCWashington.com:


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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
wwhoooaaaa...I hope the sirens were going in Mt Airy





cantore just talked about it.
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REPOST FROM LAST BLOG
So who predicted this for June 1st?


...and who had this?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


link or anything?


nah..he just posting statuses on his page..no link or footage..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


link or anything?


Source???
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wwhoooaaaa...I hope the sirens were going in Mt Airy



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Quoting ncstorm:
Scary..

Henry Margusity Fan Club
People on I-70 near MT Airy, VA are driving right into a tornado.


link or anything?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
(click to enlarge)
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TORNADO WARNING
MDC013-011945-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0006.120601T1854Z-120601T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
254 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GAMBER...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF DAMASCUS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAMBER...
WESTMINSTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THE TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 7701 3953 7686 3936 7704 3938 7715
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 215DEG 20KT 3939 7711

$$

KRAMAR
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Quoting tornadodude:


You mean they aren't airing Ice Road Truckers? haha


or lifegaurd? or storm chasers for the 300th time
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4 wxmod: An algae bloom that started in the mid Atlantic has arrived at the British Isles.

I find myself wondering where the nutrients that triggered the bloom came from.
An extra large spring ice melt carrying dissolved minerals from Greenland's/etc surface?
Iceland's eruption last year being washed into the sea this year?
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204. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
3:00 AM JST June 2 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Mawar (996 hPa) located at 15.7N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 17.8N 124.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Philippines
48 HRS: 19.4N 125.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Philippines
72 HRS: 22.5N 127.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45591
Quoting ncstorm:
Scary..

Henry Margusity Fan Club
People on I-70 near MT Airy, VA are driving right into a tornado.


Mt Airy and Damascus, Maryland, not VA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


You mean they aren't airing Ice Road Truckers? haha


Shocking isnt it?..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Scary..

Henry Margusity Fan Club
People on I-70 near MT Airy, VA are driving right into a tornado.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
TWC has live coverage of the severe weather outbreak..


You mean they aren't airing Ice Road Truckers? haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
TWC has live coverage of the severe weather outbreak..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That storm Southwest of DC looks volatile. Definitely could become tornadic.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Ameister12:
Tornado is likely occurring, or imminent near Damascus.

Very mean looking storm there... Good afternoon everyone and thanks Dr. Masters for the detailed blog.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.