The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Dude, I've seen that video on news stations! I had no idea that you are the one who took it. Phenomenal video of a rope tornado!


It was incredible! thanks man!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
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TORNADO WARNING
VAC103-133-159-193-012015-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0004.120601T1944Z-120601T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY IN EASTERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MORATTICO...OR NEAR
ROBLEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FARNHAM AROUND 350 PM EDT.
HEATHSVILLE AND CALLAO AROUND 410 PM EDT.
LEWISETTA AROUND 415 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE LARA...MOON
CORNER...MULCH...DODLYT...HOWLAND...LOTTSBURG...A VALON...MIDDLETONS
CORNER...HULL NECK AND EDWARDSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 7658 3808 7653 3803 7650 3802 7646
3797 7641 3796 7634 3793 7629 3792 7629
3779 7656 3781 7663 3813 7660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 223DEG 16KT 3782 7657

$$

LBROWN
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Quoting Nash29:


En donde???????????

Ay Dios mio!!!!!!!!!!

No me asustes!

We don't speak Spanish on the blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FLZ058-012030-
OKEECHOBEE-
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF KISSIMMEE PRAIRIE PRESERVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
THROUGH 420 PM.

$$
PB
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Quoting tornadodude:
In case y'all are interested, here is my video from the tornado I saw near Russell, Kansas a week ago.

If you skip forward to about 4:45, that's where it begins to rope out. Phenomenal rope out.


Dude, I've seen that video on news stations! I had no idea that you are the one who took it. Phenomenal video of a rope tornado!
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Getting a hook.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Flights must be delayed like crazy up and down the east coast.
yeah i bet they are alright,just overcast here now with a sprinkle or two,should be back over me in awhile,Tampa also, stay safe over there
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..hey stormtracker, you have to be flooded by now, its been hours of rainfall
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Quoting LargoFl:
gee weather is bad from florida up to NJ today
Flights must be delayed like crazy up and down the east coast.
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tornado warning in florida
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gee weather is bad from florida up to NJ today
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It does?




its gone... Need updated radar: (
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152 GeorgiaStormz: 30% chance of an EF-2 of greater, centered over Washington DC.
Where is washingtonian115?


In her last appearance this morning, prepping stuf for the kids' picnic. And railing against giggly TV weathermen for failing to give warning of the HIGH likelyhood that a SEVERE storm would be over the DC area by the afternoon.
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TORNADO WARNING
FLC055-012030-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0005.120601T1938Z-120601T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
338 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LAKE PLACID...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE PLACID.
LAKE ISTOKPOGA.
SEBRING REGIONAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2722 8146 2728 8153 2761 8130 2751 8119
2749 8120 2749 8118 2746 8116 2744 8113
2741 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 222DEG 25KT 2732 8143

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF RATON NEW MEXICO TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332...WW 333...WW 334...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SPREADING SEWD FROM CO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN CO AND NERN NM
AND TRACK SEWD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONT BACKED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD FUEL THE DEVELOPING
TSTMS. MID LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORTING STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN NONDESCRIPT. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE REGION
LIES BENEATH THE SWRN FLANK OF STRONGER NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH...ATOP LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 50KT. THUS KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC REGIME WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. PRIMARY SEVERE
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS A HAIL FEW REPORTS AOA 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG WIND
SHIFT/OUTFLOW SITUATED FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LACK OF GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS
SHOULD KEEP TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33030.


...CARBIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
In case y'all are interested, here is my video from the tornado I saw near Russell, Kansas a week ago.

If you skip forward to about 4:45, that's where it begins to rope out. Phenomenal rope out.

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Quoting weatherh98:


Still has a hook but a broad rotation unless you have something on GR3 i dont have that

It does?



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
Quoting Nash29:
You're slacking off today, Matt!

Why aren't you anywhere near D.C this afternoon tracking these bad boys?

Haha, LOL, =).


haha I need a few days off honestly. Been almost non stop on the plains the past few weeks. Got some great tornado footage tho, so Im content!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I did, lol. It showed signs of rotation for like two scans but rapidly fell apart.


The cell merger right before it showed the weak rotation most likely hurt its chances, but it still may ramp up
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DC is safe
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The storm near Hampstead looks like a tornado could be developing. The tornado chance will increase with it as it continues to ride along the warmfront.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


It had an appearance of a hook on radar, but if you checked out the velocity scans (base velocity 0.5, 1.5. and storm relative 0.5, 1.5) you would see that the storm was struggling to rotate at all, let alone in the lower levels.

I did, lol. It showed signs of rotation for like two scans but rapidly fell apart.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It had one but it fell apart.


Still has a hook but a broad rotation unless you have something on GR3 i dont have that
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It had one but it fell apart.


It had an appearance of a hook on radar, but if you checked out the velocity scans (base velocity 0.5, 1.5. and storm relative 0.5, 1.5) you would see that the storm was struggling to rotate at all, let alone in the lower levels.
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Quoting Articuno:

The cell on 95 looks intersesting


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Quoting tornadodude:
The storm near DC is not developing a hook, in fact, the velocity scan is rather mediocre. That being said, if it can continue to move north towards the front, it may become tornadic.

It had one but it fell apart.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31451
The storm near DC is not developing a hook, in fact, the velocity scan is rather mediocre. That being said, if it can continue to move north towards the front, it may become tornadic.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
how come the torando and severe tstorm boxes dont extend to the coast?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

*gulp*
my grandparents live in Laurel.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Looks like it... If a tornado were to form it would most likely miss the city to the west.


If a tornado dropped, it would prolly turn right
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Hook moving towards washington. DC is an outline square witha bite taking out
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Quoting weatherh98:
storm moving toward DC is developing a hook echo

Looks like it... If a tornado were to form it would most likely miss the city to the west.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7612
It's more likely that, as storms interact with the boundary (warm front) that they will spin as they cross it. But, they should die out once they are on the other side. However, if a storm is able to successfully latch on to the front, and ride parallel with it, it could produce tornadoes, some even strong.
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Gee these are some really bad storms up there..........SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
318 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

MDC013-021-027-031-012000-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-120601T2000Z/
FREDERICK MD-MONTGOMERY MD-CARROLL MD-HOWARD MD-
318 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR HOWARD...CARROLL...MONTGOMERY AND FREDERICK COUNTIES...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT AIRY...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF DAMASCUS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODBINE...
UNIONVILLE...
WINFIELD...
MARSTON...
NEW WINDSOR...
GAMBER...
LINWOOD...
UNION BRIDGE...
WAGNERS MILL...
UNIONTOWN...
WESTMINSTER...
REESE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 7723 3927 7735 3967 7714 3952 7687
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 214DEG 28KT 3936 7716

$$
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Good gracious..Arlington, VA might have a tornado forming..
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storm moving toward DC is developing a hook echo
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as twc mentioned, storms south of the warm front is not spinning, north they are.

Also the have good footage of a rotating wall cloud. It looked rotating at least
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

PAZ036-056-063-011945-
CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-PERRY PA-
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FRANKLIN...PERRY AND
WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 258 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ORRSTOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT NEWBURG...NEWVILLE...COLONEL DENNING STATE
PARK...LOYSVILLE AND NEW BLOOMFIELD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 201 AND 217...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 23 AND 30.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT ROUTE 11.

LAT...LON 4004 7769 4044 7746 4050 7734 4043 7708
4000 7754 3998 7766

$$

FORECASTER: LAMBERT
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There's nothing headed your way yet, but keep your eyes on the sky!

Quoting Articuno:

Green Haven, MD, a part of pasadena md, just north of Annapolis.
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today woulda been a great day to go storm chasing for us in NJ and nearby states..but that dont pay the bills and work sure does..so im hoping for some nasty cells to roll threw Atlantic city when im working(outside)
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
Quoting weatherh98:


No its stupid haha


News choppers cover storms out here near Dallas and OKC all the time. As long as you stay near the inflow and avoid boundaries, you are most likely fine. I cant imagine there is a ton of lightning with these storms.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting ncstorm:


it looks like the helicopter is right up under the threat..not smart..


No its stupid haha
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Quoting tornadodude:


Where do you live?


Near New Freedom, PA
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3631
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Whereabouts are you located?



I would disagree, things are looking pretty nasty right now and only look to be getting worse as the day goes on...yesterdays day two called high end slight risk, but they upped it at the first day one for today, and it looks like they made the right call.


Green Haven, MD, a part of pasadena md, just north of Annapolis.
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Virginia/DC have terrible traffic problems on their highways and interstates..this event is occuring at the worst possible time..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.