The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's why I don't think we needed the moderate risk today... Any tornadoes are likely to be brief spin-ups that dissipate as fast as they form.

I wouldn't be so sure.

There's still a good possibility of at least one strong, long-lived tornado today if the storm becomes rooted.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
Quoting Articuno:
This outbreak set remembrance to me that maryland can get bad tornadoes. Here is an example my mom says she remembers.

Path of the tornado.


More info on the tornado here:


Thats the La Plata Tornado, edge of the wall cloud went right over my house when I live up near Woodbridge.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Personally I think the moderate risk for today was unnecessary... There's definitely a risk for tornadoes but I don't its high enough for the moderate risk... A high end slight would've been enough... Of course it only takes one, just like with hurricanes.
Fwiw. It was a moderate risk covering a very small area. When I saw the models, I thought there would be a moderate risk in the forecast for today.
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Deleted
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latest convective outlook added a hatched area!




...VA/MD/SRN AND SERN PA...
THE 1630Z SCENARIO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES FORMING
ALONG A QLCS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK. DISCRETE STORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...BOUNDED ON THE N/NE BY A
WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 FROM
NRN VA INTO NRN MD/SERN PA AND NRN DE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS HAVE BEEN DETECTED
THUS FAR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN VA INTO NRN MD. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA HAS BEEN ADDED.
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Quoting tornadodude:
A day like today sucks for a chaser. With the almost pulse like nature of these storms, you almost certainly have to be in the right place at the right time, which would be difficult, given the storm motion and terrain.

That's why I don't think we needed the moderate risk today... Any tornadoes are likely to be brief spin-ups that dissipate as fast as they form.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7850
Good afternoon all!
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalAnalystwx13: We don't speak Spanish on the blog.

Heck most of us'n c'n bearly speak english, let alone tipe.

Agreed!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8229
This outbreak set remembrance to me that maryland can get bad tornadoes. Here is an example my mom says she remembers.

Path of the tornado.


More info on the tornado here:
Link

EDIT: fixed the link, accidently put it as an image LOL. if you can't see the images good click the link.
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Quoting tornadodude:
A day like today sucks for a chaser. With the almost pulse like nature of these storms, you almost certainly have to be in the right place at the right time, which would be difficult, given the storm motion and terrain.


Yeah having lived all over Virginia, it is not conducive at all for storm chasing.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FLZ017-012030-
LEON FL-
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LEON COUNTY IN
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

AT 341 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE...OR NEAR TALLAHASSEE
REGIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LEON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF TALLAHASSEE...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0)
9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3037 8442 3044 8445 3061 8410 3035 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 250DEG 21KT 3043 8435

$$

38-GODSEY
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A day like today sucks for a chaser. With the almost pulse like nature of these storms, you almost certainly have to be in the right place at the right time, which would be difficult, given the storm motion and terrain.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Klolly23:

5 straight hours of steady rain here in sarasota....
gee its amazing huh, no rain for such a long time, then boom tons of it all in one day,stay safe down there ok
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Quoting aspectre:
TropicalAnalystwx13: We don't speak Spanish on the blog.

Heck most of us'n c'n bearly speak english, let alone tipe.


What you did there, I see it.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You've been here one day, how would you know that?
Has had a account before maybe.
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STORMY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TREES DOWN FLOODING RAINS
HIGH WINDS WHAT A GREAT JUNE 1ST
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
TropicalAnalystwx13: We don't speak Spanish on the blog.

Heck most of us'n c'n bearly speak english, let alone tipe.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This time one year ago:



Now that is a supercell...
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Phascinating
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Quoting Doppler22:
Taking Cover now here

You're under a tornado warning.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7850
Quoting Doppler22:
Taking Cover now here


Good, stay safe.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
This time one year ago:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7850
Taking Cover now here
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Quoting Nash29:


That is not true; there a lot of bloggers on here that speak Spanish. Among them most notably, Grothar!


You've been here one day, how would you know that?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
That is correct - though without a spotter, looking at a tornado, it can only LOOK tornadic =p - but it looks good from here



haha yeah, it definitely appears to have its act together
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Nash29:


It's a democracy, not a dictatorship.

Don't force me to turn into your HS civics teacher, child.

You on here have absolutely no jurisdiction whatsoever to make that type of a determination.

ANYHOW, back to the topic at hand here: By the looks of it, the District of Columbia sees to have dodged a major bullet.

However, this Mid-Atlantic tornado outbreak is far from over, it would see.

That area will not begin to clear out until both the warm-front and then the cold-front itself move out of the region.


I think he was saying that no one here speaks Spanish... not that you can't... calm down
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
Quoting LargoFl:
..hey stormtracker, you have to be flooded by now, its been hours of rainfall

5 straight hours of steady rain here in sarasota....
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TORNADO WARNING
FLC055-012030-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0005.120601T1938Z-120601T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
338 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LAKE PLACID...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE PLACID.
LAKE ISTOKPOGA.
SEBRING REGIONAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2722 8146 2728 8153 2761 8130 2751 8119
2749 8120 2749 8118 2746 8116 2744 8113
2741 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 222DEG 25KT 2732 8143
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
Quoting NJcat3cane:
anyone think theres a chance of severe storms and a tornado in the Atlantic city area? and why or why not?

It's pretty unlikely... Most of the action should stay south of there... Very sharp cutoff on the tornado risk today

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7850
Quoting Nash29:


It's a democracy, not a dictatorship.

Don't force me to turn into your HS civics teacher, child.

You on here have absolutely no jurisdiction whatsoever to make that type of a determination.

ANYHOW, back to the topic at hand here: By the looks of it, the District of Columbia sees to have dodged a major bullet.

However, this Mid-Atlantic tornado outbreak is far from over, it would see.

That area will not begin to clear out until both the warm-front and then the cold-front itself move out of the region.

I was just stating that because some of us here don't understand it...jeez.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32355
The dumfries storm, if it holds together, might hit me head on.
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That is correct - though without a spotter, looking at a tornado, it can only LOOK tornadic =p - but it looks good from here

Quoting tornadodude:



This is the cell near Heathsville, right?

Technically, it can't be called tornadic until it actually produces a tornado lol

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Quoting ncstorm:


Stay safe Wash!
Thanks .Me and the family have already went over the precautions necessary for this type of situation.
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Quoting tornadodude:



This is the cell near Heathsville, right?

Technically, it can't be called tornadic until it actually produces a tornado lol


It looks like it may soon if it isn't already doing so
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7850
Quoting washingtonian115:
The picnic had to end early because of these nasty storms.The family is back in the house now.We have our weather kit on stand by and the flash light.I will up date you all.


Stay safe Wash!
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Because the embed failed to appear on my screen...
280 tornadodude: ...my video from the tornado I saw near Russell, Kansas a week ago.
If you skip forward to about 4:45, that's where it begins to rope out. Phenomenal rope out.

Edit in: Oddly the embed appeared when I BACKed into the page
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
this one, one the other hand, looks genuinely tornadic to me...






This is the cell near Heathsville, right?

Technically, it can't be called tornadic until it actually produces a tornado lol

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Do you see the people driving through the bridge of water on TWC??
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Quoting weatherh98:
DC is safe

Not really..
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...............heads up Miami and Key West, nasty straight line storms coming your way
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this one, one the other hand, looks genuinely tornadic to me...



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anyone think theres a chance of severe storms and a tornado in the Atlantic city area? and why or why not?
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The picnic had to end early because of these nasty storms.The family is back in the house now.We have our weather kit on stand by and the flash light.I will up date you all.
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Afternoon everyone! I see we have a tornado warning in C. FL. I wonder if the new dual pol radar upgrade makes it easier for them to see an actual tornado on radar.
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TVS for one frame, but the radial/storm relative velocities look weak, no clear couplet that I can see...

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Getting a hook.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Dude, I've seen that video on news stations! I had no idea that you are the one who took it. Phenomenal video of a rope tornado!


It was incredible! thanks man!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.