The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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The storm in question:

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This type of situation is happening and people are worried about a troll....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19591
Quoting washingtonian115:
If a tornado were to hit D.C area around this time that would possibly be one of the worst natural disasters in U.S history.People are not use to this type of weather around here.Thunder is rumbling.The clouds a very very dark now.
yes my people there would be in their cars headed home,along with thousands of others, i called and warned them but..if your in your car, there is little one can do..geez im really worried
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If a tornado were to hit D.C area around this time that would possibly be one of the worst natural disasters in U.S history.People are not use to this type of weather around here.Thunder is rumbling.The clouds a very very dark now.

Hey wash...stay safe!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think I know who this is,

Welcome back Nash! Glad to have you aboard for another season.

I don't know if it's that nash, because i know who your talking about.
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gee amazingly Bad weather we are having today huh..folks stay safe and Listen..to your Local warnings ok..
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If a tornado were to hit D.C area around this time that would possibly be one of the worst natural disasters in U.S history.People are not use to this type of weather around here.Thunder is rumbling.The clouds a very very dark now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19591
Quoting Nash29:


CORRECTION: New scree-name, but I've been blogging in here since '07.


I think I know who this is,

Welcome back Nash! Glad to have you aboard for another season.

EDIT: Oh wait, it's a troll.. nevermind.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 25172
ORNADO WARNING
DCC001-MDC033-012115-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0012.120601T2043Z-120601T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
443 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
WESTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FORT
WASHINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRIENDLY...
NATIONAL HARBOR...
OXON HILL...
MARLOW HEIGHTS...
CAMP SPRINGS...
CORAL HILLS...
FORESTVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 7700 3872 7704 3879 7703 3883 7702
3890 7695 3886 7682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 206DEG 19KT 3874 7700

$$

KRAMAR
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Oh goodness.
I've been here so long I remember 1.
Now, we're up to 29.
Always the same...overly dramatic, short-tempered, and disruptive....in any language.
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I am watcing that cell headed toward Thurmont
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TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE D.C METRO AREA AND P.G COUNTRY.EMERGENCY BRODCASTING JUST POPPED UP ON THE SCREEN!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19591
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't be so sure.

There's still a good possibility of at least one strong, long-lived tornado today if the storm becomes rooted.



exactly. Any storm that roots itself on that boundary (WF) has the potential to produce a strong tornado.
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Funnel Cloud spotted Near Shrewsbury, PA
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Quoting Articuno:

Thank god thats west of us.


Yeah, Articuno your shot for storms will be between 6-9 tonight as the action shifts west.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They made landfall as Category 2's.


Yeah well Ol' Gustav did some major damage to my home therefore i consider that a major hurricane lol.

But you are correct I forgot they were both 2's when they actually made landfall
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Just report and ignore now, report and ignore.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34483
Happy Hurricane Season! Since today is the official start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season, I decided to do something a little different in our Infamous Storms section. There are a number of regionally significant historic storms that don't get a whole lot of coverage or remembrance so I went ahead and put something together for two notable hurricanes from the 1964 Hurricane Season - Hurricane Cleo and Hurricane Dora

Several of my family members went through Hurricane Cleo whilst living in Hialeah, FL (near Miami) and Hurricane Dora took a very similar path to TS Beryl. Both storms were interesting and left major impacts on the places they visited. Enjoy!
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Quoting Nash29:


Neither did Ike for that matter. Therefore, the Doc is correct. The last major hurricane to strike our country was indeed Wilma back in '05. Moreover, that is why this UNPRECEDENTED streak MUST end this year, and God willing, it will, my friend. IT WILL!


You should be taken out back and... nevermind. Just go crawl in a a hole.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
TORNADO WARNING
MDC003-005-027-012100-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0011.120601T2031Z-120601T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
431 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ELKRIDGE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKRIDGE...
(BWI)BALTMOR-WSHNGTON INT...
FERNDALE...
PUMPHREY...
CATONSVILLE...
ARBUTUS...
BROOKLYN PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 7676 3921 7658 3911 7677 3915 7689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 208DEG 19KT 3916 7679

$$

KRAMAR

Thank god thats west of us.
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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN YORK AND SOUTH CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTIES...

AT 420 PM EDT...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED BY A STORM SPOTTER JUST
NORTHEAST OF SHREWSBURY AROUND 425 PM. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO INDICATED
STRONG CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THIS AREA. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES EAR STEWARTSTOWN...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF RED
LION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WINTERSTOWN AROUND 430 PM EDT...
FELTON AND DELTA AROUND 435 PM EDT...
SUNNYBURN AROUND 440 PM EDT...
BROGUE AND SAFE HARBOR AROUND 445 PM EDT...

ANOTHER POSSIBLE TORNADIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
YORK COUNTY NEAR NEW FREEDOM BETWEEN 440 PM AND 450 PM. THIS STORM
MAY FOLLOW NEARLY THE EXACT SAME TRACK AS THE LEAD STORM.
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correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the storm that has been warned for the last 2 hours?



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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?


What about Gustav and Ike in 2008?

They made landfall as Category 2's.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34483
TORNADO WARNING
FLC086-012045-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0006.120601T2025Z-120601T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
425 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HOMESTEAD MIAMI
SPEEDWAY...HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT...HOMESTEAD...AND
FLORIDA CITY

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION...
FLORIDA CITY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY
OVERPASS. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...
IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A
TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR COULD DEVELOP ANYTIME.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

&&

LAT...LON 2543 8032 2541 8032 2521 8057 2522 8058
2521 8059 2525 8067 2555 8060 2545 8032
2544 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 216DEG 31KT 2530 8057

$$

BAXTER
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2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?


What about Gustav and Ike in 2008?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
MDC003-005-027-012100-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0011.120601T2031Z-120601T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
431 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ELKRIDGE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKRIDGE...
(BWI)BALTMOR-WSHNGTON INT...
FERNDALE...
PUMPHREY...
CATONSVILLE...
ARBUTUS...
BROOKLYN PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 7676 3921 7658 3911 7677 3915 7689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 208DEG 19KT 3916 7679

$$

KRAMAR
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
you're in the right place to get the warnings 5 minutes before NWS issues them =D
you've got at least an hour before the I95 cell is near you, hopefully it falls apart before it get to ya.



Yep, my parents always call me the weatherman. And I always use info from this blog to tell them about stuff. Without this blog I wouldn't know the stuff I know now!
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 012025Z - 012130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SERN PA...DE...AND SRN
NJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS DE
INTO SERN PA AND SRN NJ. THIS NWD SHIFT WILL ALLOW ONGOING
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OVER MD TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR REPLACES COOLER ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012


ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...

LAT...LON 40627561 39667418 38617424 38517560 39767598 40457635
40627561
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Deleted: Should have read back in the comments before posting a stupid one.
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Quoting LargoFl:


why?
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Quoting weatherh98:


as twc mentioned, storms south of the warm front is not spinning, north they are.

Also the have good footage of a rotating wall cloud. It looked rotating at least
Almost looks like a winter map.
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Quoting animalrsq:
Nash has indeed been here that long.


Wrong Nash, original Nash was great. Anyway, Storms seem to have trouble rotating south of about the Fredricksburg line. Wonder if they will continue to struggle, heres hoping.
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you're in the right place to get the warnings 5 minutes before NWS issues them =D
you've got at least an hour before the I95 cell is near you, hopefully it falls apart before it get to ya.


Quoting Articuno:

Yep. Just looking at where it was located scares me.
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our NWS radar is down due to upgrades..lets hope nothing is terrible over our way
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Post#:351, your comment cannot insult me!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 9012
Nash has indeed been here that long.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats the La Plata Tornado, edge of the wall cloud went right over my house when I live up near Woodbridge.

Yep. Just looking at where it was located scares me.
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@Articuno
Stay indoors away from windows. If the weather goes down hill, get into a closet with blankets over you and stay put. Just trying to help! It is never fun to be "scared"
We care!
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Tornado warning here in Highlands Co. Fl
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Quoting LargoFl:
geez just look at all that moisture headed towards florida
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New tornado producing storm south of DC moving toward Bryans Road. #tornado

henry margusity fan club
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Quoting Nash29:


CORRECTION: New scree-name, but I've been blogging in here since '07.

Uh-huh.

Hmm...I wonder what those past screen names could be.

Haven't a clue...

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34483
Quoting Nash29:


CORRECTION: New scree-name, but I've been blogging in here since '07.


And what name was that?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's why I don't think we needed the moderate risk today... Any tornadoes are likely to be brief spin-ups that dissipate as fast as they form.

I wouldn't be so sure.

There's still a good possibility of at least one strong, long-lived tornado today if the storm becomes rooted.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34483

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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