The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM AMBO (MAWAR)
5:00 AM PhST June 2 2012
=======================================

Tropical Storm "AMBO" has slightly intensified as it continues to move north northwestward

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ambo (Mawar) was located at 16.1°N 124.6°E or 220 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gust of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
===================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
============
1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Sur
3. Camarines Norte
4. Polillo Island
5. Aurora
6. Isabela
7. Cagayan

Additional Information
=======================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

TS "Ambo" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over central and southern Luzon and Visayas.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Luzon and Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
stay safe and heed your local warnings ok, very dangerous today

NVM, we are fine, its west of us, we are eastern anne arundel county
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Quoting Articuno:
EMERGENCY ALERT POPPED UP ON MY TV...
stay safe and heed your local warnings ok, very dangerous today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
Doughnut on storm heading for Baltimore.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8046
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If the trough were to stop pushing farther south FL. would be in the soup for more rain. Look at the moisture feed extending all the way into Central America.

today is simply amazing huh GT..its been a looooong time since ive seen a day like today here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
EMERGENCY ALERT POPPED UP ON MY TV...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?


What about Gustav and Ike in 2008?

From TC reports:
"Gustav made its final landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, around 1500 UTC 1 September with maximum winds near 90 kt (Category 2)."

"Microwave images and aircraft reconnaissance reports indicate that a 40 n mi diameter eye formed during the hours before landfall, and maximum winds increased to 95 kt."
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If the trough were to stop pushing farther south, FL. would be in the soup for more rain. Look at the moisture feed extending all the way into Central America.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
Quoting goosegirl1:


The storms formed east of us, sorry I didn't send the warning! We haven't had any yet. But if you look to the west, just at the western slope of the Alleghenies is a mean looking line, with a lot of heavy rain behind. You may have this all over again in 2-3 hours. We should be in the action by 6 pm in eastern WV. I don't think these are tornadic, though, but they may cause some flooding. And you are absolutely right- very few of us who live in the mid-Atlantic states see much severe storms or tornadoes, so we have no plan in place for them. Take care please!

sorry, should have left a link:
Link
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lol 4 different posts on this warning





Quoting weatherh98:


There is debri detected by radar

Twc had it using grlevel3
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Local Storm Report


06/01/2012 0518 PM

2 miles W of Chesterfield h, Pasquotank County.

Tornado, reported by 911 call center.


Officer reported tornado on the ground just north of
Highway 17. Tornado lifted after several minutes but
rotation was still evident.
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It's starting to rain here.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
Quoting washingtonian115:
Power outages are now confirmed in both V.A.It appears that a funnel cloud was in college park Maryland which is about 6 miles outside of D.C.


The storms formed east of us, sorry I didn't send the warning! We haven't had any yet. But if you look to the west, just at the western slope of the Alleghenies is a mean looking line, with a lot of heavy rain behind. You may have this all over again in 2-3 hours. We should be in the action by 6 pm in eastern WV. I don't think these are tornadic, though, but they may cause some flooding. And you are absolutely right- very few of us who live in the mid-Atlantic states see much severe storms or tornadoes, so we have no plan in place for them. Take care please!
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TORNADO WARNING
NCC029-139-012145-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0006.120601T2117Z-120601T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
517 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL PASQUOTANK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 515 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR ELIZABETH CITY.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAMDEN AROUND 525 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE SPENCES CORNER...
BURNT MILLS...BELCROSS AND LAMBS CORNER.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL AND OR WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED...BY CALLING NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
WAKEFIELD AT...1...800...7 3 7...8 6 2 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 7636 3646 7626 3633 7609 3629 7617
3630 7618 3629 7620 3628 7619 3625 7625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 214DEG 18KT 3633 7625

$$

MMONTE
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my god, these tornado's are amongst heavily populated area's, news is going to be bad tomorrow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
TORNADO WARNING
VAC009-163-530-678-012200-
/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0018.120601T2108Z-120601T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
508 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
CITY OF BUENA VISTA IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
CITY OF LEXINGTON IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
NORTHWESTERN AMHERST COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

* AT 505 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GLASGOW...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLASGOW...
BUENA VISTA CITY...
CORNWALL...
FAIRFIELD...
BROWNSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT...1...8 6
6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3784 7915 3783 7915 3761 7944 3761 7946
3771 7956 3798 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 226DEG 29KT 3771 7946

$$

SK
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
517 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL PASQUOTANK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 515 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR ELIZABETH CITY.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CAMDEN AROUND 525 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE SPENCES CORNER...
BURNT MILLS...BELCROSS AND LAMBS CORNER.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL AND OR WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED...BY CALLING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
WAKEFIELD AT...1...800...7 3 7...8 6 2 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 7636 3646 7626 3633 7609 3629 7617
3630 7618 3629 7620 3628 7619 3625 7625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 214DEG 18KT 3633 7625

$$

MMONTE
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8046
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
503 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

DCC001-MDC033-012115-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120601T2115Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-PRINCE GEORGES MD-
503 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR PRINCE
GEORGES COUNTY AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...

AT 501 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMP SPRINGS...OR NEAR ANDREWS AFB...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DISTRICT HEIGHTS...
FORESTVILLE...
CAPITOL HEIGHTS...
CORAL HILLS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 7695 3880 7703 3883 7702 3890 7695
3886 7682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 211DEG 20KT 3883 7691

$$



HTS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Could be a tornado passing through or just north of Elizabeth City, NC.


There is debri detected by radar

Twc had it using grlevel3
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Power outages are now confirmed in both V.A.It appears that a funnel cloud was in college park Maryland which is about 6 miles outside of D.C.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
Could be a tornado passing through or just north of Elizabeth City, NC.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8046
Can somebody post a map showing rotation with the storm that went through Washington?
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this one picked up a red box - headed right at DC - anyone know if there are any spotters and/or lives news feeds from he area??!



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Look at north Carolina cell, has donut
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getting closer now

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Powerr has went out in parts of George town.Fairfax has a tornado warning now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
Pasadena MD local radar:
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Quoting naviguesser:


Tornado warning near BWI

BWI and the city of Baltimore are pretty far apart though... The warned storm near BWI isn't the one currently impacting the city, though it's heading that way if it holds together.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8046
Tornado warning in north Carolina heading towards Elizabeth city with TVSsignature, 100knot gate to gate shear
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...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ADAMS...COLUMBIA...
CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...FRANKLIN...JUNIATA...LANCAS TER...
LEBANON...MONTOUR...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY...SCHUY LKILL...
SNYDER...UNION AND YORK.

* UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD...ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAIN OF AROUND 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WHERE SEVERAL TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Baltimore you better watch out next.


Tornado warning near BWI
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
Quoting washingtonian115:
Baltimore you better watch out next.
Baltimore weather alerts here........Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
Baltimore you better watch out next.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
Storms west of D.C. are starting to bow out, could see some nasty straight line winds.
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Parts of Montgomery County are flooded.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MDC003-005-025-510-012130-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0058.120601T2051Z-120601T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
451 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
EASTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BEECHFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOMELAND...
ROLAND PARK...
GUILFORD...
MORGAN STATE UNIVERSITY...
TOWSON...
WOODRING...
PARKVILLE...
TIMONIUM...
CARNEY...
PERRY HALL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 7623 3920 7668 3926 7676 3963 7662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 216DEG 25KT 3930 7668

$$

KRAMAR
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
Flash flooding is also a problem.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
DC is fine, however, the storm closing in on Baltimore looks to be intensifying

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Nash29:


Says the Jamaican bomboclat!
I have just come to check out what is going on and you Mr. JFV with your disrespectful self. You need to grow up and stop harrassing people.


Admin: I am very sorry to confront him on here but he is very insulting and disrespectful.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
Quoting washingtonian115:
If a tornado were to hit D.C area around this time that would possibly be one of the worst natural disasters in U.S history.People are not use to this type of weather around here.Thunder is rumbling.The clouds a very very dark now.

Especially since its the evening, plenty of traffic.

This storm is mean..looking, best luck to you and your family wash.
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The storm in question:

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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