The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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In Owings Mills, MD ---- Keeping my friends on FB updated and calling people I know are in tornado warnings... up here, most people don't give them the respect they deserve.

Gonna be interesting once round two gets here. Parents are also in eastern panhandle/WV, so there getting hit as well.

Gonna do what I can - seriously, most people here have nO idea what to do in a warned area.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Highway 401 even on the express lanes is always backed up at this time of the day. And the weather isn't helping much. Dixie is not too far from my folks in Ajax, Markham, and Scarborough.
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heads up Bel Air!






Quoting Articuno:
The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southern Baltimore County in northern Maryland...
northwestern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...
southeastern Howard County in central Maryland...

* until 630 PM EDT

* at 553 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Fort
Meade... or near Severn... moving north at 25 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
(bwi)baltmor-wshngton int...
Elkridge...
Arbutus...
Catonsville...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building and avoid windows. If outdoors or in a Mobile home or
vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

The tornado may be wrapped in rain and hard to see. Do not wait to
see or hear the tornado. Take cover now.


Lat... Lon 3930 7680 3924 7664 3906 7672 3907 7679
time... Mot... loc 2157z 188deg 20kt 3911 7674
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.And according to radar another nasty line could come by.It was raining pretty heavily and at a good clip to.Some streets are under water right now.


It will only get worse too
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Getting good amount of rain just southeast of Raleigh.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Are you in this right now?


The pic Keeper posted is from Ontario. Looks like Highway 401.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
MDC003-005-027-012230-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0017.120601T2156Z-120601T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
556 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FORT
MEADE...OR NEAR SEVERN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
(BWI)BALTMOR-WSHNGTON INT...
ELKRIDGE...
ARBUTUS...
CATONSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THE TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 7680 3924 7664 3906 7672 3907 7679
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 188DEG 20KT 3911 7674

$$



HTS
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Quoting weatherh98:


Are you in this right now?
Yes.And according to radar another nasty line could come by.It was raining pretty heavily and at a good clip to.Some streets are under water right now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327


Edit: This picture is of a tornado in Texas on May 21, 2012.
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The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southern Baltimore County in northern Maryland...
northwestern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...
southeastern Howard County in central Maryland...

* until 630 PM EDT

* at 553 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Fort
Meade... or near Severn... moving north at 25 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
(bwi)baltmor-wshngton int...
Elkridge...
Arbutus...
Catonsville...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building and avoid windows. If outdoors or in a Mobile home or
vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

The tornado may be wrapped in rain and hard to see. Do not wait to
see or hear the tornado. Take cover now.


Lat... Lon 3930 7680 3924 7664 3906 7672 3907 7679
time... Mot... loc 2157z 188deg 20kt 3911 7674
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Quoting washingtonian115:
And I was just "over exaggerating" about the situation eh Nash29?.


Are you in this right now?
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Quoting LargoFl:
geez this was taken from the washington dc area a while back, taken from abc news site


scud cloud
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Convection finally wrapped around the center. If it holds and strengthens that band it will officially be a hurricane.
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And I was just "over exaggerating" about the situation eh Nash29?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Quoting Nash29:


Lane to lane gridlock on that picture there, Keeper! NOT GOOD. May they all stay safe, =(.


Youre very right!
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all these warnings and only three tornado reports?
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Quoting Articuno:

I didn't actually mean to post it in caps..


It's ok, that happens some times. That sound still pricks up the hair on the back of my neck.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 941
Washington DC has to be flooding soon if not already
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
ok I need to take a break, phone calls to make to be sure they are safe and alerted..stay safe out there folks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36667
Quoting LargoFl:
geez this was taken from the washington dc area a while back, taken from abc news site
Yes that was in collage park M.D.Which is 6 miles outside the D.C line.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Quoting Articuno:

If there was a tornado it would be insane.


thats what cantore was saying earlier..that we have been lucky with tornados not hitting populated highways or interstates..must be a stressful ride home for those folks..
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i think they may need to reissue tornado warning N o f baltimore
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Quoting ncstorm:
the traffic jam showing on TWC is unbelievable..

If there was a tornado it would be insane.
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geez this was taken from the washington dc area a while back, taken from abc news site
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36667
Quoting nofailsafe:


In these circumstances it is vitally important to keep your head together (stay calm.) Monitor official outlets for information regarding the location of storms that may affect you and take protective measures if you are within a warning area.

I didn't actually mean to post it in caps..
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
the traffic jam showing on TWC is unbelievable..
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Quoting LargoFl:
gee this is bad, i hope my people are ok


No injuries reported so far..
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this is st.pete beach right now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36667
Quoting Articuno:
EMERGENCY ALERT POPPED UP ON MY TV...


In these circumstances it is vitally important to keep your head together (stay calm.) Monitor official outlets for information regarding the location of storms that may affect you and take protective measures if you are within a warning area.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 941
Quoting ncstorm:
17000 customers without power in the DC area..
gee this is bad, i hope my people are ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36667
17000 customers without power in the DC area..
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36667
TORNADO WARNING
MDC003-027-033-012200-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0014.120601T2123Z-120601T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
523 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
WESTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MITCHELLVILLE...OR NEAR BOWIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROFTON...
ODENTON...
FORT MEADE...
ODENTON...
MILLERSVILLE...
SEVERN...
SOUTH GATE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THE TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 7677 3913 7655 3889 7682 3894 7689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 210DEG 26KT 3896 7681

$$

KRAMAR





Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36667
So I guess it is technically correct to say Ike and Gustav were not majors, but anyone looking at the damage photos in the TC report for Ike would say, "That's a major." Maximum surge between 15 and 20 feet but the gauges failed.

From what I saw, Gustav was as strong inland as some Louisiana cat 3's (Betsy, Andrew) with its wind damage, perhaps because it was moving quicker than average. South BR had some houses destroyed by falling trees. The trees there are large and many.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


are you sure it wasn't a test because they do it all the time.

No it's real alright.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
532 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

SCC015-029-035-012200-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-120601T2200Z/
DORCHESTER SC-BERKELEY SC-COLLETON SC-
532 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL COLLETON...WEST CENTRAL BERKELEY AND CENTRAL DORCHESTER
COUNTIES...

AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
PRINGLETOWN TO NORMAN LANDING...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CANADYS...
COTTAGEVILLE...DORCHESTER...GIVHANS...GIVHANS FERRY STATE PARK...
JEDBURG...KNIGHTSVILLE...RIDGEVILLE...ROUND O...SLANDS BRIDGE...
SUMMERVILLE AND WALTERBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY
FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS
AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. IF THERE IS NO SAFE SHELTER AVAILABLE...STAY AWAY FROM
ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS AND BODIES OF WATER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND
POWER LINES...PLEASE CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

&&

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...



* UNTIL 630 PM EDT.



* AT 527 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 17 MILES WEST OF

LAKEWOOD PARK...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT DRUM...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Emergency broadcasting just popped up on the screen not to long ago once again.


are you sure it wasn't a test because they do it all the time.
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K the one to the west of Fredrick is now showing strong rotation on the most recent scan..
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36667
Emergency broadcasting just popped up on the screen not to long ago once again.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
There's a cell just W of Fredrick showing some pretty good rotation, as well as the one headed out of DC to Baltimore..
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36667
Elizabeth City storm has weakened some and is probably no longer producing a tornado.
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447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM AMBO (MAWAR)
5:00 AM PhST June 2 2012
=======================================

Tropical Storm "AMBO" has slightly intensified as it continues to move north northwestward

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ambo (Mawar) was located at 16.1°N 124.6°E or 220 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gust of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
===================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
============
1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Sur
3. Camarines Norte
4. Polillo Island
5. Aurora
6. Isabela
7. Cagayan

Additional Information
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Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

TS "Ambo" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over central and southern Luzon and Visayas.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Luzon and Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.