The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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From Twitter,
Picture of Ligoner, PA tornado
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WOW! This is a REALLY nice batch of tropical moisture streaming in off the Gulf. Hopefully it keeps going, we have alot of catching up to do on rain!
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Quite possibly the biggest severe thunderstorm warning of all time:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
BLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN CAMBRIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
FULTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
HUNTINGDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 637 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
HYDE TO RAMEY TO ASHVILLE TO CLAYSBURG TO WOODBURY TO NEW
ENTERPRISE TO CLEARVILLE TO INGLESMITH TO FOREST PARK TO
LINEBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WOODLAND AND HOUTZDALE...
OSCEOLA MILLS AND COVE MILLS...
SANDY RIDGE AND PHILIPSBURG...
VALLEY-HI AND NEEDMORE...
KARTHAUS AND WATERFALL...
PORT MATILDA AND PINE GLEN...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 147 AND 201...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 170...I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 170...
I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 23...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND
85.
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D.C's tornado shield has held up pretty good as well.
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Quoting Articuno:

I have a feeling that that my town has a tornado shield..
Storms are missing us


be grateful, you dont want to experience one..I have been through a tornado..most frightening experience for me..
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
From Twitter, somewhere over Washington Beltway


When I left work in Fairfax it was POURING
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Quoting KoritheMan:


We call them deflector shields. The Galactic Empire was notorious for them.

lol
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Quoting Articuno:

I have a feeling that that my town has a tornado shield..
Storms are missing us


We call them deflector shields. The Galactic Empire was notorious for them.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915

I have a feeling that that my town has a tornado shield..
Storms are missing us
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We got a right-turner...


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Quoting Bluestorm5:
well, it happens... NWS offices always do a nice jobs, but they still get blamed for not getting the jobs done ranging from regular folks to politicans... it's not their fault people ignores the warnings and get themselves killed, ya know?


Exactly. I don't sympathize with those people, just their families.
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Another nasty line coming through.Adding insult to injury.Flash flooding could ocurr if it hasn't already.Rain was going horizontal for a while to.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


We had a tornado touch down less than a mile from my house on March 21. Like, it was literally right down the road. I was at work, but knew we were under a tornado warning. Later on, I talk to her about the event, and she says "I guess no one really thought it would happen."

:/
well, it happens... NWS offices always do a nice jobs, but they still get blamed for not getting the jobs done ranging from regular folks to politicans... it's not their fault people ignores the warnings and get themselves killed, ya know?
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Quoting atl134:


362 is the weather channel for directv.

I have xfinity
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Alamance County, NC.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
It really angers me how people doesn't obey the warnings and saying it's not a big deal, but when they do get hit by a bad storm/tornado, they'll goes like "OMG WHY DIDN'T WE GET WARNING EARLIER?" or "WHERE WAS THE WARNING?". Smh...


We had a tornado touch down less than a mile from my house on March 21. Like, it was literally right down the road. I was at work, but knew we were under a tornado warning. Later on, I talk to her about the event, and she says "I guess no one really thought it would happen."

:/
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Could be a tornado forming near Ashland, VA.
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It really angers me how people doesn't obey the warnings and saying it's not a big deal, but when they do get hit by a bad storm/tornado, they'll goes like "OMG WHY DIDN'T WE GET WARNING EARLIER?" or "WHERE WAS THE WARNING?". Smh...
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
From Twitter, somewhere over Washington Beltway


Okay, that looks pretty awesome. Bet it freaked out much of the people there, though. ;)
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Quoting Doppler22:

I know and i appreciate the work they do and the lives they save. I am sorry. i was just joking around... Anyway there was a possible tornado touchdown in Belair, MD I heard that a building collapsed and i heard this from the Hartford County FD
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Multiple trees down on Orange line of Metro (subway) -- I've never heard of that before; lived here basically my whole life. "Angry crowd" at Armory Stadium waiting for shuttle bus. Shuttle buses delayed in traffic.

Wow I'm glad I'm home. Might crack a bottle of wine.
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hurricane Season is finally here! And im back on the blog officially! Good afternoon / evening to everyone!
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Quoting Articuno:

What's that?


362 is the weather channel for directv.
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From Twitter, somewhere over Washington Beltway
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In case anyone missed it, here's my TCR for Alberto. I'm going to TRY adding 6-hour position, intensity, and pressure estimates, but again, with work, I'm not sure yet.

------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------

Tropical Storm Alberto

AL012012

19 May - 22 May

Alberto was an out of season tropical storm, the first of two, that developed in the month of May in the north Atlantic. Alberto did not affect land.

a. Storm history

Alberto's origins appear to have begun as early as 10 May. During this time, satellite and water vapor imagery images showed that a well-defined upper-tropospheric cold low, accompanied by a well-marked cold front, entered west Texas. The front entered the Gulf of Mexico early on 12 May. Although the front gradually decayed, it became quasi-stationary over the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly in response to being sandwiched between two high pressure areas. During this time, the front produced intermittent clusters of showers and thunderstorms. The preexisting large-scale cyclonic flow was reinforced in this area by the passage of several shortwave perturbations in the semipermanent mid-latitude pressure belt. The associated cloudiness moved across the Florida peninsula, and entered the western Atlantic on 16 May. The activity moved steadily northeastward and soon became entangled with an approaching trough.

The southern portion of this activity became stationary over the western Atlantic waters, while the northern portion of the trough continued moving northward. Around 1200 UTC 17 May, satellite and radar animations showed that a cloud mass formed over central South Carolina, possibly associated with a weak mesoscale convective system (MCS). This system moved offshore shortly after 0000 UTC 18 May, and later ASCAT data indicated the presence of a small surface circulation. The small low continued to become better organized, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed from it around 1200 UTC 18 May, while centered about 100 miles south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given.

The depression became a tropical storm about 6 hr later. Initially, Alberto was embedded in a region of weak steering currents, and drifted slowly southwest. Based on a nearby ship report, the cyclone reached its estimated peak intensity of 50 kt around 2100 UTC. Soon thereafter, the tropical storm began to weaken under increasing southwesterly shear. In addition, water vapor imagery during this time suggests that Alberto was ingesting a very dry airmass over the southeastern United States, which likely counteracted the otherwise favorable sea surface temperature regime of the Gulf Stream. Synoptic steering currents gradually became more defined as a weak upper-level trough moved through the Ohio Valley, and Alberto responded with a gradual turn to the south and southeast, on a track well offshore the southeastern United States coast.

Continuously battered by marginal atmospheric and thermodynamic parameters -- namely dry air and wind shear, Alberto weakened to a tropical depression near 0000 UTC 22 May. At that time, the center became almost completely exposed to the west of a diminishing area of showers. Convection subsequently increased, but this activity was disorganized, and is not assumed to have been sufficient to bring Alberto back to a tropical storm. Later that day, around 1200 UTC, the cyclone became a remnant low while located approximately 160 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Moving northeastward, the remnant low lost its identity within a broad and nearly-stationary trough that extended from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to Bermuda. This same trough would soon assist in the formation of Tropical Storm Beryl.
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Many of these seasonal predictions look reasonable. More importantly, whatever happens happens. All we can do is sit back and watch.

Let the games begin!
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
We're not quite out of the woods yet...




only 94 knots gate to gate
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this is my area
rain just movin in now from the west
the next band is the heaviest rain for the day
we have had heavy rain high winds since 8 am this morning
had a little break the last couple of hrs this next band will take till midnight to move out
flooding is occuring some tree damage as winds in rain bands have gusted to 70 kmh



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Quoting washingtonian115:
Their helping save lives.And with all the tornado disaster last year they do not want a repeat of that.Especially in populated areas like this.

I know and i appreciate the work they do and the lives they save i was just joking around... anyway there was a possible tornado touchdown in Belair, MD I heard that a building collapsed and i heard this from the Hartford County FD
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We're not quite out of the woods yet...the tornado warning here was just re-issued



Quoting MAweatherboy1:

And none in, or really close to, the moderate risk area, which I can say more confidently now was not needed... Plenty of strong storms today for sure and still some good ones out there but conditions weren't quite there for tornadoes today, just brief spin-ups.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

And none in, or really close to, the moderate risk area, which I can say more confidently now was not needed... Plenty of strong storms today for sure and still some good ones out there but conditions weren't quite there for tornadoes today, just brief spin-ups.


not enough heat energy
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Some flooding Bethesda, Md to Arlington, VA, and now going into DC (according to Sue Palka, local Fox Ch. 5.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Their helping save lives.And with all the tornado disaster last year they do not want a repeat of that.Especially in populated areas like this.


Tornado warning Hampshire county, Morgan county wv and Frederick co .va just came in - i just drove home thru that storm, please take it seriously!
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i think we have only had 2 touchdowns so far. the north carolina and one in pa.

4 reports came out of the pa storm within 5 minutes
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Quoting weatherh98:


turn on 362

What's that?
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Quoting weatherh98:


up to 5 reports

And none in, or really close to, the moderate risk area, which I can say more confidently now was not needed... Plenty of strong storms today for sure and still some good ones out there but conditions weren't quite there for tornadoes today, just brief spin-ups.
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Quoting Articuno:
Live stream of the weather channel.


turn on 362
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from storm chaser Jeremy Gilchrist..wall cloud super cell developing in Almanance County, NC

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506. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
6:00 AM JST June 2 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Mawar (996 hPa) located at 16.1N 124.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 18.0N 124.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Philippines
45 HRS: 19.4N 125.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Philippines
69 HRS: 22.5N 127.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
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505. Zappy
Quoting Doppler22:
Beep Beep Beep The NWS in Sterling Virginia has issued a tornado warning for Hartford county or beep beep beep the NWS has issued a tornado warning for York County.... This tv is getting annoying with all the beeping haha


Hey, be lucky they're warning you at all. In foreign countries, people die because of no warnings.
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up to 5 reports
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Greetings from zip code 20901, and Happy 1st Day of "the Season!" It's been awhile, and thought I'd check in -- sure didn't think it'd be this much "fun" today!

Just a few items from NWS, I see... :)

Flash Flood Warning
Tornado Watch
Flash Flood Watch
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hey, I have POWER... so far. It's a bloomin' miracle (you'll know, if you have or ever had, or ever heard about, PEPCO)!
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Live stream of the weather channel.
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Quoting Doppler22:
Beep Beep Beep The NWS in Sterling Virginia has issued a tornado warning for Hartford county or beep beep beep the NWS has issued a tornado warning for York County.... This tv is getting annoying with all the beeping haha
Their helping save lives.And with all the tornado disaster last year they do not want a repeat of that.Especially in populated areas like this.
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Beep Beep Beep The NWS in Sterling Virginia has issued a tornado warning for Hartford county or beep beep beep the NWS has issued a tornado warning for York County.... This tv is getting annoying with all the beeping haha
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
heads up Bel Air!








139 knots gate to gate...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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