The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting K8eCane:
Good Grief it looks like the whole east coast is under the gun. I am getting a shower efore it gets here ecause mama alwas told me never to take a shower when its lightning and shes the smartest person i know


better hurry..its a coming..

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Good Grief it looks like the whole east coast is under the gun. I am getting a shower before it gets here because mama always told me never to take a shower when its lightning and shes the smartest person i know
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lower level rotation now on the newport news cell, we will have to see how close to shore this tracks.
I would be worried about how strong those bridges are though...

The baltimore storm may be trying to make a comeback, just north of baltimore.


seems like today is the day of close calls
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This is interesting.... This storm just north of Nassau has striations... indicating that there is very good deep layer shear in the area, as well as high EHI values



I check the EHI values for the current time, and there is actually sufficient EHI for organized rotating storms.



This storm has been going on for about 3 hours now... and unfortunately it's too far off the coast to get some solid photos.
I guess I can consider this a supercell? ;) For sure waterspouts have been formed from this storm.
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18z Nogaps..

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looks like baltimore was spared, barely, again.
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anyone know how much of the US Navy fleet is at Norfolk at the moment? that could prove messy.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
increasing rotation down to the midlevels in this cell, could eventually warrant a tornado warning, but it could also split the gap:
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increasing rotation down to the midlevels in this cell, could eventually warrant a tornado warning, but it could also split the gap:
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that one's not even warned...hopefully they're right on that...rotation seems weak at lower elevations



Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ruh-roh
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You do that without even trying.

Just joking.

Or was I...?


Makes no difference to me. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Bad weather movin' into the Lowcountry..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
possibly a weak tornado heading to baltimore , rotation weakened in last tdwr frame, but seeing what a ef-2 could do to atlanta, baltimore should still beware.


EF2 tornadoes are relatively benign in more rural areas. But even an EF0 can prove deadly in urban or metropolitan areas. Just like 6 inches of rain in 24 hours isn't going to kill anyone in Louisiana. Put that in Haiti or Honduras and dozens could die.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Quoting KoritheMan:


Maybe I just wanted to give you a hard time.

*whistles*

You do that without even trying.

Just joking.

Or was I...?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, sorry about that.


Maybe I just wanted to give you a hard time.

*whistles*
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possibly a weak tornado heading to baltimore , rotation weakened in last tdwr frame, but seeing what a ef-2 could do to atlanta, baltimore should still beware.
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I always considered IKE a major, but the NHC doesn't ask me. Wassup with that?
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ruh-roh
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Quoting KoritheMan:
It takes 125 knots for a system to become a hurricane? The NHC needs to be cognizant of this, as their historical database is all wrong.

Now Kori, I know you know what I meant. :P

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You Mean upgraded to a Major, don't ya?

Yeah, sorry about that.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
After going back and examining radar data for Hurricane Ike, I'm very surprised it was never upgraded to a hurricane. Peak 10 meter winds of 125 kts in the right eyewall and 137 kts in the left.



oh ike was a hurricane ;), no upgrade necessary
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
After going back and examining radar data for Hurricane Ike, I'm very surprised it was never upgraded to a hurricane. Peak 10 meter winds of 125 kts in the right eyewall and 137 kts in the left.



You mean upgraded to a major, don't ya?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
After going back and examining radar data for Hurricane Ike, I'm very surprised it was never upgraded to a hurricane. Peak 10 meter winds of 125 kts in the right eyewall and 137 kts in the left.



It takes 125 knots for a system to become a hurricane? The NHC needs to be cognizant of this, as their historical database is all wrong.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I know this is far out, but just thought I would show what the GFS has cooking in the GOM down stream.


Yeah, it has been showing a tropical cyclone in the Gulf in mid-June for two days now. It's actually supporting by a few things. First, the MJO is supposed to return to Octants 8 and 1 during mid-June. Secondly, high pressure is forecast to develop across the USA around that time, with lowering pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf, and East Pacific. Third, it's mid-June. :P
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After going back and examining radar data for Hurricane Ike, I'm very surprised it was never upgraded to a major hurricane. Peak 10 meter winds of 125 kts in the right eyewall and 137 kts in the left.

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I found a Live Broadcast from Baltimore, MD

Link
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The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southern Baltimore County in northern Maryland...
southern Baltimore City in northern Maryland...
northern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland...

* until 745 PM EDT

* at 718 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near
(bwi)baltmor-wshngton int... or near Severn... moving northeast at 20
mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Pumphrey...
Ferndale...
Brooklyn Park...
Fells Point...
Baltimore Inner Harbor...
Locust Point...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building and avoid windows. If outdoors or in a Mobile home or
vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

The tornado may be wrapped in rain and hard to see. Do not wait to
see or hear the tornado. Take cover now.


Lat... Lon 3914 7669 3916 7671 3927 7666 3930 7658
3921 7655
time... Mot... loc 2320z 214deg 19kt 3916 7669


Kramar




712 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2012

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 730 PM EDT for Anne
Arundel County...

At 710 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate very strongly a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado. This tornado was located near Fort Meade... or near
Severn... moving northeast at 25 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building and avoid windows. If outdoors or in a Mobile home or
vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 3910 7671 3912 7675 3919 7671 3912 7665
time... Mot... loc 2312z 228deg 22kt 3913 7672


Kramar



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Quoting washingtonian115:
7 more hours of this miserable weather?.


it would take a lot more development.
The atmosphere should be pretty worked over.

but the tv mets always think it will last longer than it will here, maybe it is the same there.

posible tornado by Baltimore Washington INT(BWI)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I know this is far out, but just thought I would show what the GFS has cooking in the GOM down stream.



It's not going to give me a [local] chase. I don't care. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
I know this is far out, but just thought I would show what the GFS has cooking in the GOM down stream.

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could be bad if a tornado crosses the dc baltimore metroplex. but it is quite possible that one s of baltimore is a tornado.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...Why? There is nothing there...



Westerly shear interacting with a small area of vorticity from ongoing convection over South America giving the illusion of an actual circulation. I can see how a layman (no offense) might glean something from that.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
... "7 more hours to go..." Doug Hill, ABC 7, DC
7 more hours of this miserable weather?.
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... "7 more hours to go..." Doug Hill, ABC 7, DC
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Watch 11N/76W for the next possible area of development!





...Why? There is nothing there.

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TORNADO WARNING
VAC033-057-085-097-101-012345-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0008.120601T2309Z-120601T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CAROLINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WEST CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CENTRAL HANOVER COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN KING AND QUEEN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
NORTHWESTERN KING WILLIAM COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HANOVER...OR 6 MILES
EAST OF ASHLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MANGOHICK AROUND 720 PM EDT.
BEULAHVILLE AROUND 730 PM EDT.
NEWTOWN AROUND 740 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE CALNO...
EPWORTH...GLOBE...POLLARDS CORNER...DUANE FORK...GETHER...OWENTON...
BISCOE...SALVIA AND INDIAN NECK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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Any live broadcast from the areas under Tornado Warning ?
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Watch 11N/76W for the next possible area of development!




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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Quite the small warning.


Yeah, 15,739 Square Kilometers is small in Pennsylvania standards
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558. Gaara
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

And none in, or really close to, the moderate risk area, which I can say more confidently now was not needed... Plenty of strong storms today for sure and still some good ones out there but conditions weren't quite there for tornadoes today, just brief spin-ups.


1. Hindsight is 20/20
2. The risk areas are assigned based largely on probabilities with some subjective input
3. This is a densely populated area that sees tornadic activity nowhere nearly as frequently as many other areas of the country. It's an effective vehicle to get the message out to a large population that the potential is there for particularly serious weather
4. Watches and warnings are the more immediate means of getting the message out about severe weather, so I don't really see what the issue is in erring on the side of caution.
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Quite the small warning.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow, I never would've thought they had that list... One of those happenned just 2 days ago! And this current one is pretty similar to those... Maybe it will make the list!


Not on the top 10; but you can limit it by WFO and according to this the size of the Severe Thunderstorm Warning covers 15,739 Square Kilometers
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Quoting JTDailyUpdate:


Iowa Enviroment Mesonet has the top 10 NWS WFO Storm Based Warnings by Size

Link


Nifty. Bookmarked.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:


Iowa Enviroment Mesonet has the top 10 NWS WFO Storm Based Warnings by Size

Link

Wow, I never would've thought they had that list... One of those happenned just 2 days ago! And this current one is pretty similar to those... Maybe it will make the list!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol, I don't think they keep track of silly things like biggest severe thunderstorm warnings, but that one is definitely huge... That one warning probably takes up a solid 20% of the state.


Iowa Enviroment Mesonet has the top 10 NWS WFO Storm Based Warnings by Size

Link
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brand new tornado warning SW of Baltimore

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Quoting JTDailyUpdate:

Possibly the largest in PA history?

Lol, I don't think they keep track of silly things like biggest severe thunderstorm warnings, but that one is definitely huge... That one warning probably takes up a solid 20% of the state.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


An invisible tornado? I'm surprised there was any warning...


Sorry having trouble with the image link

Here it is:Link
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Quoting JTDailyUpdate:


From Twitter,
Picture of Ligoner, PA tornado


An invisible tornado? I'm surprised there was any warning...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Quite possibly the biggest severe thunderstorm warning of all time:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
BLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN CAMBRIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
FULTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
HUNTINGDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 637 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
HYDE TO RAMEY TO ASHVILLE TO CLAYSBURG TO WOODBURY TO NEW
ENTERPRISE TO CLEARVILLE TO INGLESMITH TO FOREST PARK TO
LINEBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WOODLAND AND HOUTZDALE...
OSCEOLA MILLS AND COVE MILLS...
SANDY RIDGE AND PHILIPSBURG...
VALLEY-HI AND NEEDMORE...
KARTHAUS AND WATERFALL...
PORT MATILDA AND PINE GLEN...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 147 AND 201...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 170...I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 170...
I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 23...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND
85.

Possibly the largest in PA history?
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From Twitter,
Picture of Ligoner, PA tornado
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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