The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Thanks for the link, this stuff is still confusing though lol.

Here is a wikipedia link which explains things a little more simpler Link.


I'm still wondering how Scott was able to give rough estimates on precipitation rates for dbZ values in different regions.


its his job
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here Tom, why don't I just give you this link. It's confusing. :P

Link
Thanks for the link, this stuff is still confusing though lol.

Here is a wikipedia link which explains things a little more simpler Link.


I'm still wondering how Scott was able to give rough estimates on precipitation rates for dbZ values in different regions.
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but wait. you can have an accurate formula if you plug in the right variables. but there are too many variables we just dont know yet
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Quoting K8eCane:



Yes i agree with that. I guess what Im saying is that I believe there are yet too many variables we dont understand to say with much certainty. Now,were it that we knew all there is to know, I may feel differently.


I agree there is so much we still don't know.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


doesnt look too strong, but i am surprised it was so bright, especially with cloudy skies, especially considering that it was darker here and i am further west than Hamton

It looks kind of like the Springfield, MA tornado to me. That could be because it's June 1 though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
He's eating a hushpuppy.



doesnt look too strong, but i am surprised it was so bright, especially with cloudy skies, especially considering that it was darker here and i am further west than Hamton
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Quoting K8eCane:



Yes i agree with that. I guess what Im saying is that I believe there are yet too many variables we dont understand to say with much certainty. Now,were it that we knew all there is to know, I may feel differently.


I guess you cant have an accurate *formula* unless you know ALL the variables, IMHO
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
687. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
9:00 AM JST June 2 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mawar (990 hPa) located at 16.5N 124.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 18.4N 124.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Philippines
48 HRS: 20.7N 126.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.7N 128.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa

Additional Information
=====================

Tropical storm will move north for the next 12 hours then move north northeastward

Tropical storm will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours then decelerate

Tropical storm will be upgraded to severe tropical storm within 12 hours

Tropical storm will develop because spiral cloud bands have become well organized and cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.5 after 24 hours
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You and ProgressivePulse are taking that way out of context. Kori didn't mean anything bad by what he said.


Just no reason for it other than to mark superiority.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Or maybe "each week?"

Watched a local show about the start of hurricane season during which they discussed the numbers from everyone's forecast...and how that wasn't the point. They brought up the slow seasons of 1957 and Audrey and 1992 and Andrew. Roger Erickson from the Lake Charles NWS talked about the steering currents. He said had Rita or Katrina formed one week later they would not have been close to Texas or Louisiana. And who knows maybe they wouldn't have become what they did. The steering currents are the one thing we can't know in advance. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but all we can do is keep an eye on things and be prepared.



Yes i agree with that. I guess what Im saying is that I believe there are yet too many variables we dont understand to say with much certainty. Now,were it that we knew all there is to know, I may feel differently.
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possible weak tornado forming N of philly and moving away north away from the metro.
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He's eating a hushpuppy.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting stormpetrol:


I never did claim to be an expert, but since I see there are so many Einsteins here as far as weather experts, I'll just let them do all the talking,sames as though one can't make a comment regarding what they might "think" without being taken totally out of context and being jumped on like tics on a Bull just because some think that person is below their intelligence & knowledge! I never said anything was "there" I simply said to look for "possible" development basically coming from that area!


Just keep blogging and posting what you think..as I said here before, no one on here is an expert at weather as much as they think they are
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Quoting ncstorm:
tornado in norfolk. pulled this from facebook..



Furious yet beautiful...
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
"As early as 1947, a paper published by Marshall et al. attempted to address this problem by correlating radar reflectivity values (Z) with rainfall rates (R)."

from here

edit: blah, blah, blah ...

"Z = Integral [N(D) D^6 dD] R = (PI / 6) * Integral [N(D) D^3 W(D) dD]

where:

Z=reflectivity factor

R=rainfall rate

D=raindrop diameter

N(D)=number of drops of given diameter per cubic meter

W=fall velocity for a given diameter

"This is the theoretical definition of reflectivity (Z). However, the WSR-88D is not able to observe raindrop size distribution or raindrop size, so Z must be determined from the simplified radar equation:

Z = (Power Returned * Target range^2) / radar constant

"This equations assumes Rayleigh scattering, which occurs with targets whose diameter is much smaller than the wavelength of the transmitted electromagnetic radiation (Battan, 1973). The WSR-88D uses a wavelength of approximately 10.7 cm, and almost all raindrops have diameters of 7 mm or less.

"Extensive research has shown that, in general, Z = A * R^b, where A and b are empirically determined constants."
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Quoting K8eCane:
I prefer words over numbers, like * each year is a little different*


Or maybe "each week?"

Watched a local show about the start of hurricane season during which they discussed the numbers from everyone's forecast...and how that wasn't the point. They brought up the slow seasons of 1957 and Audrey and 1992 and Andrew. Roger Erickson from the Lake Charles NWS talked about the steering currents. He said had Rita or Katrina formed one week later they would not have been close to Texas or Louisiana. And who knows maybe they wouldn't have become what they did. The steering currents are the one thing we can't know in advance. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but all we can do is keep an eye on things and be prepared.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 680
tornado in norfolk. pulled this from facebook..

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You gotta love the action between bloggers and trolls sometimes though, lol.


Z is the radar reflectivity factor. It depends on the rainfall rate and the size distribution. R is the rainfall rate in mm/hr.


Here Tom, why don't I just give you this link. It's confusing. :P

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting stormpetrol:


I never did claim to be an expert, but since I see there are so many Einsteins here as far as weather experts, I'll just let them do all the talking,sames as though one can't make a comment regarding what they might "think" without being taken totally out of context and being jumped on like tics on a Bull just because some think that person is below their intelligence & knowledge! I never said anything was "there" I simply said to look for "possible" development basically coming from that area!

You and ProgressivePulse are taking that way out of context. Kori didn't mean anything bad by what he said.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Bucks County in southeast Pennsylvania...
southeastern Montgomery County in southeast Pennsylvania...

* until 930 PM EDT

* at 901 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near
Jenkintown... or near Philadelphia... moving north at 30 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Willow Grove... Abington and Bryn Athyn by 910 PM EDT...
Hatboro by 915 PM EDT...
Ivyland by 920 PM EDT...
Richboro by 925 PM EDT...
Doylestown... 6 miles southeast of Robesonia... 7 miles south of
Gardenville and 9 miles southwest of New Hope by 930 PM EDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Please report hail or strong winds to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free... 1-877-633-6772... when you can do so safely.


Lat... Lon 4010 7506 4008 7508 4005 7510 4006 7514
4008 7517 4007 7519 4008 7521 4041 7521
4038 7495 4033 7493
time... Mot... loc 0103z 190deg 25kt 4009 7513


Heavener

Starting too get too close for comfort
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Anyone who refers to another as "Layman" should get out of dodge for a bit.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Comments like that should get a 24hr ban, imo. Using terms like that in an educational blog is unacceptable. "Layman" give me a freaking break. Every year this blog stoops to new lows.

You gotta love the action between bloggers and trolls sometimes though, lol.

Quoting TomTaylor:
lol well what is z and what is r then? And where do i find their values?

Z is the radar reflectivity factor. It depends on the rainfall rate and the size distribution. R is the rainfall rate in mm/hr.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
radar confirmed tornado continued across the bay to cape charles va
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Z=200R^1.6 I believe.
lol well what is z and what is r then? And where do i find their values?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Yeah, not much to speak of. Could get us in the night though. Looking at the rainfall north of the lake, looks like they were off about 12hrs.


Still streaming up.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25419
Quoting KoritheMan:


Westerly shear interacting with a small area of vorticity from ongoing convection over South America giving the illusion of an actual circulation. I can see how a layman (no offense) might glean something from that.
well to be fair, there is a circulation there, just no convection associated with it.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Is there a formula for determining this?

Z=200R^1.6 I believe.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting ScottLincoln:


48-53dbz typically corresponds to about 4.0in/hr rainfall rate for storms along the gulf coast... 48dbz is closer for Tropical Z-R and 53dbz is closer for Convective Z-R. Only using the stratiform/cool rain Z-R relationships would a 55-60dbz reflectivity correspond to 4.00in/hr.
Is there a formula for determining this?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I prefer to use ENSO as the sole predictor. Everything else seems less certain. For example, how many of us predicted that a uniformly negative NAO would allow only one tropical storm to hit the US in 2010?

But you can't do that. Everything in the tropics fits together like the pieces of a puzzle. You can't build a puzzle with one piece, meaning you can't predict what a hurricane season will be like just going by ENSO.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting stormpetrol:


Probably the same person who taught you to be an A$$O on this blog all these years!!


you are on the money :)
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658. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2002 is a fairly good analog.

hey what do you think about 1951?
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So far in Hampton,VA:

0011 RALEIGH TERRACE CITY OF HAMPTON VA 3700 7636

TORNADO ON THE GROUND ALONG CHESAPEAKE AVENUE. (AKQ)


0015 RALEIGH TERRACE CITY OF HAMPTON VA 3700 7636

TORNADO ON THE GROUND WITH POWER FLASHES EVIDENT ALONG CHESPEAKE AVE. (AKQ)



0017 1 NE KECOUGHTAN CITY OF HAMPTON VA 3702 7634

TORNADO MOVED ACROSS THE HAMPTON YACHT CLUB CUASING DAMAGE. (AKQ)


0020 MERRIMAC SHORES CITY OF HAMPTON VA 3701 7635

WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO HOMES IN MERRIMAC SHORES
. (AKQ)
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Quoting K8eCane:
I prefer words over numbers, like * each year is a little different*


That works too, but I prefer "similar but different".
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Westerly shear interacting with a small area of vorticity from ongoing convection over South America giving the illusion of an actual circulation. I can see how a layman (no offense) might glean something from that.


I never did claim to be an expert, but since I see there are so many Einsteins here as far as weather experts, I'll just let them do all the talking,sames as though one can't make a comment regarding what they might "think" without being taken totally out of context and being jumped on like tics on a Bull just because some think that person is below their intelligence & knowledge! I never said anything was "there" I simply said to look for "possible" development basically coming from that area!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7695
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I prefer words over numbers, like * each year is a little different*
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...
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Looking forward to this (from Houston/Galveston forecast discussion):

THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM ONE OF WARM AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND TO A MORE WET WORK WEEK PATTERN. THE GFS IS NOW TRENDING MORE WET...IN LINE WITH THE RECENT EURO SOLUTIONS...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S END. AS OF NOW...MODELS HAVE GEO-HEIGHTS LOWERING ACROSS TEXAS IN TANDEM WITH HIGHER MOISTURE FLUX. THERE IS NO DISCERNABLE TRIGGER...SUCH AS AN APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE AMPLE VICINITY VORTICITY TO AT LEAST PLACE IN 20-30 POPS. COLUMN PROFILES SATURATE UP...WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPPING...TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW DAYS OF MORE (POSSIBLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN) ACTIVE WEATHER FROM AROUND TUESDAY ONWARD.
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Quoting RussianWinter:


Does predicting analog years before the season starts have any meaningful skill for statistics that matter (landfall locations, number of storms)?



i personally think people sometimes get too carried away with numbers
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.