The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Morning Galveston.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Wind shear appears to be conducive for slow development. Btw good evening/morning everyone!
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Progressive...are the models hinting on possible development?


18z nogaps showed possible development in the same general area as Beryl. That's all I know as far as the models go...
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Just the loops. Look just NW of 20N80W. The whitish streamers are mid/low level clouds heading NNE into the circulation.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
After going back and examining radar data for Hurricane Ike, I'm very surprised it was never upgraded to a major hurricane. Peak 10 meter winds of 125 kts in the right eyewall and 137 kts in the left.



Had Ike wobbled 50 miles west, all of Galveston and almost everything south of loop 610 would have been destroyed... Major hurricane or not.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I don't know, I haven't looked at any models today.

OK, no prob!
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Progressive...are the models hinting on possible development?


I don't know, I haven't looked at any models today.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Could be looking at our next invest in the next day or two.



Hey Progressive...are the models hinting on possible development?
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Getting some weak west winds in the keys tonight.

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Could be looking at our next invest in the next day or two.


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786. wxmod
Quoting gatorchomp:
Does anyone know where I can track clouds and storm systems for more than a 24 hour cycle.

THank you very much!

:)


Look for archives at the satellite photo source you want to use, download the times and days you want and view with a slide show program. It's pretty inefficient, but for important stuff, it's available. Here is one archive:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/srchwest.html

There are many
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The zombie virus is spreading faster than anticipated. Time to find another habitable planet.




It's prolly Bush's fault
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A friend of mine brought this to my attention. A dubious distinction at best.

Oklahoma, not Texas, can claim it had hottest summer ever in U.S., experts say

TULSA, Okla. -- Oklahoma and Texas have argued for years about which has the best college football team, whose oil fields produce better crude, even where the state border should run. But in a hot, sticky dispute that no one wants to win, Oklahoma just reclaimed its crown.

After recalculating data from last year, the nation's climatologists are declaring that Oklahoma suffered through the hottest summer ever recorded in the U.S. last year - not Texas as initially announced last fall.
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782. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
12:00 PM JST June 2 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mawar (990 hPa) located at 16.7N 124.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 18.8N 124.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Philippines
45 HRS: 20.7N 126.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
69 HRS: 23.7N 128.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45219
Quoting gatorchomp:
Does anyone know where I can track clouds and storm systems for more than a 24 hour cycle.

THank you very much!

:)


Subaru Forester with a sunroof.
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The weather in the NE looks miserable for a while.
I wonder when the omega block will break and what will happen when it does.
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779. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TROPICAL STORM AMBO (MAWAR)
11:00 AM PhST June 2 2012
=======================================

Tropical Storm "AMBO" has intensified further as it continues to move north northwestward

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ambo (Mawar) was located at 16.8°N 124.3°E or 200 km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gust of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
===================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
============
1. Aurora
2. Isabela
3. Cagayan
4. Babuyan Island
5. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
=======================

Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "Ambo" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over central and southern Luzon and Visayas.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of northern and central Luzon due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Ambo" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Mawar:


It's looking pretty good
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Good evening everyone!
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Wind shear is typically high in the Atlantic this time of year. However, shear is nose diving below climo at the present time.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, it would be above average.. obviously it's below average as we've had two named storms already lol.


ok
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It could probably be contributed, at least in part, to Neutral conditions across the Atlantic. El Nino increases wind shear across the Atlantic.



ok so what dos mode runs like the gfs and ecw show for name storms
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Quoting Tazmanian:


dos the fourming EL nino have some in too do with this


No, it would be above average.. obviously it's below average as we've had two named storms already lol.
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Quoting Tazmanian:


dos the fourming EL nino have some in too do with this

It could probably be contributed, at least in part, to Neutral conditions across the Atlantic. El Nino increases wind shear across the Atlantic.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

As expected. It still lies below the climatological average for this time of year.


dos the fourming EL nino have some in too do with this
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Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear is high for the 1st day of the season

As expected. It still lies below the climatological average for this time of year.
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wind shear is high for the 1st day of the season
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Mention of the waterspout in NewportNews (video) reminded me that the USS Enterprise is scheduled for decommissioning there on 1Dec20012.

The USNavy is entertaining no bids for purchase-for-preservation&display, insisting on scrap-only purchase bids. In line with that, the ship's hull will be cut in a manner that will allow the easiest&cheapest removal the nuclear reactors, with no hull repair to be done afterwards.
Not that ship clean-up wouldn't be a major headache -- asbestos removal by itself would cost a fortune -- but it's a shame that the first-of-its-kind can't be saved for public display.
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P.S. Oh my, really deep water near the 495 Beltway, College Park, MD, today -- only about 10 mins away. Don't know if it's still bad; pics look awful.

well, this is going to go on for awhile, lots of incidents.

Take care and good night again.
It was was fun; checking back in tonight.
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Quoting bappit:
Looking forward to this (from Houston/Galveston forecast discussion):

THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM ONE OF WARM AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND TO A MORE WET WORK WEEK PATTERN. THE GFS IS NOW TRENDING MORE WET...IN LINE WITH THE RECENT EURO SOLUTIONS...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S END. AS OF NOW...MODELS HAVE GEO-HEIGHTS LOWERING ACROSS TEXAS IN TANDEM WITH HIGHER MOISTURE FLUX. THERE IS NO DISCERNABLE TRIGGER...SUCH AS AN APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE AMPLE VICINITY VORTICITY TO AT LEAST PLACE IN 20-30 POPS. COLUMN PROFILES SATURATE UP...WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPPING...TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW DAYS OF MORE (POSSIBLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN) ACTIVE WEATHER FROM AROUND TUESDAY ONWARD.
I hope your area gets some rain, South Central and Western Texas will continue to be dominated by high pressure unfortunately which has been the case since middle of May. No 100's yet but I have reached 96 a couple of times. Not looking forward to June to August here because i know it will be Very Hot and Very dry, it is every year.
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Hour 9. Ocean City, MD & Rehoboth Beach, DE "getting hammered" now. Still potential for flooding tonight. A few kids suffering from hypothermia from getting caught in flood water, saved by Prince George's County EMS.

Could have been a lot worse today, as was noted.

I'm going to finish watching the news, so will say goodnight unless I just can't stay away!

Careful out there.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzon e=MDZ009&warncounty=MDC031&firewxzone=MDZ009&local _place1=Silver+Spring+MD&product1=Flash+Flood+Warn ing
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I'd say the I95 corridor dodged a bullet today...only one tornado report in SPC's MDT risk zone - got lucky this time.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Wilmington bubble prevails again.

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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #613 -- Thank you, Progressive... it has been more than a bit crushing watching yet another big slug of moisture split in half and avoid the CC/FM area. We finally got some nice rain at sundown here in the Cape, but if we totaled more than a half inch for the last 36 hours I'd be pleasantly surprised.

I'm really starting to wonder if the Caloosahatchee's colder flow is, by itself, able to influence weather systems as large as today's while they're still out in the Gulf (because I've watched this happen to us over and over again), or if there are larger-scale factors at play that repel so much rain away from the greater Ft. Myers area.

I'm going to start my own crackerjack cloud-seeding program.... ;-P


Good Evening Orchid,

Seems the front is moving along much quicker than forecast. Old habits are hard to break sometimes and much of FL is still coming out of, or still in, a lengthy drought. Hopefully with ample moisture and instability returning this year we can begin to chip away at the long term habits and bring in a couple tropical systems to bust it once and for all.
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Anyone Know if the tornadoes affected some commuters?
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The Wilmington bubble prevails again.

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
858 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

...VALID 00Z SAT JUN 02 2012 - 00Z SUN JUN 03 2012...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...NRN MID ATLC STATES/SRN NEW ENG...

THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HOWEVER...HAVE
ADDED SRN NEW ENG TO THE GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT PDS OF INTENSE RNFL RATES.

COMBO OF PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CNVCTN COULD RESULT IN SHORT PDS
OF INTENSE RNFL RATES OVER LOCALIZED AREAS OF THIS REGION. THE
SYSTEM AS A WHOLE SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AT LEAST THRU THIS PD
WHICH SHOULD KEEP EXCESSIVE RNFL THREAT TO A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER..CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AREAS TO SEE AMTS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FFG GIVEN THE MSTR AVBLTY..THE DYNAMIC FORCING
INVOLVED..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLS REPEATING OVR LOCALIZED
AREAS. URBANIZED AREAS..AND PLACES WHERE FFG NUMBERS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW COULD SEE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN TYPE ISSUES AS
SPOTTY RNFL RATES 1.50 INCHES PER HOUR OCCUR WITH SOME TOTALS IN
THE 2.50 TO 3.00 INCH RANGE BEING POSSIBLE OVER 6 HOURS.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3098
Quoting Sangria:


Hi Grothar...sorry y'all missed most of it. I am a bit north, and received a very nice rainfall today. Was hoping the training effect would provide most on the west coast some substantial precip, as we all definitely need it....


It would have been an event, that's for sure. Third time they have gone South of us since April.
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Quoting Grothar:


All the good stuff is missing us Sangria.




Hi Grothar...sorry y'all missed most of it. I am a bit north, and received a very nice rainfall today. Was hoping the training effect would provide most on the west coast some substantial precip, as we all definitely need it....
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Mawar:

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Quoting hydrus:
How do you know they are" suggestive " you doing things different these days Pott..:)

Er, um, Lady Pott is in the UK for a couple weeks.....
Not that that has anything to do with it or anything.

:):))
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Quoting hydrus:
How do you know they are" suggestive " Are you doing things different these days..:)


http://news.softpedia.com/news/10-Thing-You-Did-N ot-Know-About-Croaking-67126.shtml

3. Croaks are basically love serenades, meant to attract a mate. Males can sing individually or gather in groups named choruses. Sometimes, females too can croak, like in Polypedates (Asian frogs), emitting similar croaks to the males, and which act like catalysts for boosting breeding activity in the group.

Release calls are emitted by a male frog mounted by another male.
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Quoting Nash29:
Jim Williams is expecting a ton of Florida landfalls this season.

So, here's to hoping that he's right.

Including his ticking ''time-bomb'' city for the season which is Tampa, FL!

He specifically said expect it to be a bad summer/fall for Southeast Florida; the Treasure Coast of Florida; the Florida Keys; the Big Bend area of Florida; and for West Central Florida (Tampa area).



Not too many good people wish for destruction. So I'll have to turn down the toast.
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Quoting Nash29:
Ready for another hurricane season, pot?

Looking forward to it.
Hardly seen the sun so far this year.
When the disturbances pass north of here, we tend to get sunny days.
So, from that point of view, bring them on.

I think it will be an unpredictable season, though.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24236
Quoting pottery:

Greetings, from Afar.
Had a drier day today, but cloudy and hazy.
Right now the froggies outside are making suggestive noises to one another....
How do you know they are" suggestive " you doing things different these days Pott..:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
75 °F
Light Rain