The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting Doppler22:

I think it is the guy who covered Hurricane Andrew... The hurricane specialist... i cant think of his name
bryan norcst or something like that
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Well off for awhile. Everyone have a nice weekend or what's left of it. Still think we might get a little action going sw of Cuba.Surface winds out of the west north of Cuba on out of the east south of Cuba.
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Man it's been a minute since Andrew. I was 16 then. I liked Dr. Steve Lyons, wish he would've stayed. Stephanie is still on weekday mornings, so I'm still cool with TWC. I could do without Al Roker, but I guess we have to take the bad with the good.
Does not seem like 20 years to me either.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19502
Quoting hydrus:
Those folks know what to do. Prayers to them anyway.


The forecast track by JTWC is just east of there but any deviation to the left will be very bad. I join in prayers for those folks.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13272
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't know what happened to Seagulls, but for some good humor and conviviaility mixed with the weather, you have to go elsewhere. Best we can do for hilarious around here nowadays is a 14 year-old who thinks he knows more than Dr. Masters.


JFV?
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.
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Quoting ncstorm:
whatever happened to that blogger Seagulls or something like that..he was hilarious!
I don't know what happened to Seagulls, but for some good humor and conviviaility mixed with the weather, you have to go elsewhere. Best we can do for hilarious around here nowadays is a 14 year-old who thinks he knows more than Dr. Masters.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Okinawa may be for a very close call or direct hit.
Those folks know what to do. Prayers to them anyway.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19502
Quoting Levi32:


ATCF files that have a storm designation between 80 and 89 instead of between 90 and 99 like regular invests are system test files, and are not real.


Also that is due east of Hawaii, I highly doubt a major hurricane would be roaming those waters; usually they are on a weakening trend when they get in that area
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WP042012 - Typhoon MAWAR


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



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987. TXCWC
I see afternoon models are POSSIBLY giving us something to watch for in a week or two off East Coast and in longer term Carribean. Not even a close consensus though at this point between various models. What I need to see is run-run consistency as well as some sort of model consensus before really buying into it though.
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howdy everyone,

I figured since the Atlantic is quiet, and we had some severe weather yesterday, I would share my tornado video from last Friday in Kansas

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Quoting Hurricane1216:
Hey guys,

I was looking on the ATCF files and I found this. According to the ATCF file it says that there is a Major Hurricane Chuck in the CPAC even though satellite imagery does not indicate anything. I was wondering if any of you guys could figure out what is going on.


ATCF files that have a storm designation between 80 and 89 instead of between 90 and 99 like regular invests are system test files, and are not real.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
Quoting Hurricane1216:
Hey guys,

I was looking on the ATCF files and I found this. According to the ATCF file it says that there is a Major Hurricane Chuck in the CPAC even though satellite imagery does not indicate anything. I was wondering if any of you guys could figure out what is going on.


That is a test that they do sometimes.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13272
Hey guys,

I was looking on the ATCF files and I found this. According to the ATCF file it says that there is a Major Hurricane Chuck in the CPAC even though satellite imagery does not indicate anything. I was wondering if any of you guys could figure out what is going on. 
CP, 84, 2012060212,   , BEST,   0, 210N, 1480W, 105,  958, HU,  64, NEQ,   30,   25,   25,   30, 1012,  155,  20,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,      CHUCK, D,
																	
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Hi everyone,

This August will be 20th Anniversary of Andrew...

Wish these blogs had been around back then, all we had back then was TWC and of course locally here in SE Fla, we had Brian Norcross on NBC 4 (that station has changed now)..

We stayed up with him until our power went out.

Cannot believe it has been 20 yrs already...


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Quoting hydrus:
The eye is becoming symmetrical now..


Okinawa may be for a very close call or direct hit.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13272
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've been watching the ECMWF for the past few model runs and I've been mentioning that at the end of each run part of the trough pinches off in a classical trough split but slams it back into the East Coast before development actually occurs. This time it appears the trough split occurs over Louisiana and heads into the Gulf then into Florida as a weak-TS then strengthens off the coast, so it's not completely random after all.


After the above explanations,both of you convinced me that this may have a chance to be subtropical or tropical.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13272
The eye is becoming symmetrical now..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19502
Mawar's evolution today:

14:01Z:


And at 19:32Z:


Continues to look better. Eye should clear out in a few hours.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
whatever happened to that blogger Seagulls or something like that..he was hilarious!
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Who watches TWC? with the internet and all the good info you can get who needs that channel.


I like to watch it because I don't get out of bed and walk straight to the computer. guess i'm lazy.
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Quoting Levi32:


It looks tropical, but it's also a completely random model run. We'll see if the ensemble mean picks it up in an hour or so.


I've been watching the ECMWF for the past few model runs and I've been mentioning that at the end of each run part of the trough pinches off in a classical trough split but slams it back into the East Coast before development actually occurs. This time it appears the trough split occurs over Louisiana and heads into the Gulf then into Florida as a weak-TS then strengthens off the coast, so it's not completely random after all.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Man it's been a minute since Andrew. I was 16 then. I liked Dr. Steve Lyons, wish he would've stayed. Stephanie is still on weekday mornings, so I'm still cool with TWC. I could do without Al Roker, but I guess we have to take the bad with the good.


Who watches TWC? with the internet and all the good info you can get who needs that channel.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually, I'm not so sure. Look at how it develops from the trough, over the Gulf then moves over Florida. That appears to be at least sub-tropical in nature. I've been monitoring this possibility being on the ECMWF and it bears watching. I wish I could pull up a phase-diagram for it, but it ''appears'' to my untrained eyes to be somewhat tropical at least.


It looks tropical, but it's also a completely random model run. We'll see if the ensemble mean picks it up in an hour or so.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
Quoting Levi32:


While atmospheric conditions are very important, SSTs are always equally so. SSTs always average warm enough to support hurricanes south of 30N in most of the Atlantic during the summer, but anomalies of even 0.5C can have a huge impact on atmospheric instability and circulation, thereby influencing storm development significantly. Just because SSTs are "warm enough" doesn't mean we just check it off on the list of requirements for tropical formation and then ignore it for the rest of the season. SSTs relative to other atmospheric parameters is an essential factor that influences the atmospheric environment in the Atlantic.


Levi, thank you for your explanation. The interplay between SSTs and atmospheric conditions never occurred to me.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is non-tropical what the 12z ECMWF has at 240 hours.



Actually, I'm not so sure. Look at how it develops from the trough, over the Gulf then moves over Florida. That appears to be at least sub-tropical in nature. I've been monitoring this possibility being on the ECMWF and it bears watching. I wish I could pull up a phase-diagram for it, but it ''appears'' to my untrained eyes to be somewhat tropical at least.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting hydrus:
Brian Norcross..And he is good.


Yeah I remember him.
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Quoting Doppler22:

I think it is the guy who covered Hurricane Andrew... The hurricane specialist... i cant think of his name


Man it's been a minute since Andrew. I was 16 then. I liked Dr. Steve Lyons, wish he would've stayed. Stephanie is still on weekday mornings, so I'm still cool with TWC. I could do without Al Roker, but I guess we have to take the bad with the good.
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Quoting Doppler22:

I think it is the guy who covered Hurricane Andrew... The hurricane specialist... i cant think of his name
Brian Norcross..And he is good.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19502
After only getting 0.35" Thursday, it has all but vanished into thin air as watering is required today by wilting grass. Next weeks influx of tropical moisture better deliver
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Who is TWC's hurricane expert now?

I think it is the guy who covered Hurricane Andrew... The hurricane specialist... i cant think of his name
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
During the peak months of the "Cape Verde" hurricane season (we'll say July 15 - September 15), do SSTs in the tropical Atlantic really have that great of an impact on the development of tropical cyclones? Based on my observations, atmospheric conditions are much more important for the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones during peak season, since SSTs are high enough regardless during this time (except in very unusual circumstances).


While atmospheric conditions are very important, SSTs are always equally so. SSTs always average warm enough to support hurricanes south of 30N in most of the Atlantic during the summer, but anomalies of even 0.5C can have a huge impact on atmospheric instability and circulation, thereby influencing storm development significantly. Just because SSTs are "warm enough" doesn't mean we just check it off on the list of requirements for tropical formation and then ignore it for the rest of the season. SSTs relative to other atmospheric parameters is an essential factor that influences the atmospheric environment in the Atlantic.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
Who is TWC's hurricane expert now?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Quote from National Geographic NewsWatch:

Jeff Masters, director of the website Weather Underground, said water temperatures in the Atlantic are a little cooler than recent years, and this could reduce the number of tropical storms that form. Hurricanes draw their power from warm seawater near the surface that has been heated to at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (about 27 degrees centigrade).

Masters noted that winter winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean - where hurricanes most often form in the summer - were stronger than usual. These strong winter winds caused cooler water to be brought to the surface, so it will take longer for the water to warm up enough to fuel hurricanes.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see another tropical storm until August," Masters said.

http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/06/0 1/13-named-storms-2-major-hurricanes-predicted-for -summer-of-2012/

I don't typically disagree with Dr. Masters, but I do this time around. We're already pretty much in a warm Neutral, and if we happen to get a weak El Nio, that means we should see an active early/mid season with a sharp decline in activity after September. Also, I don't see where he is getting wind shear is above average...the whole Atlantic is running average to below average.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hate Mustard. Hate it.

How could you?
._.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
During the peak months of the "Cape Verde" hurricane season (we'll say July 15 - September 15), do SSTs in the tropical Atlantic really have that great of an impact on the development of tropical cyclones? Based on my observations, atmospheric conditions are much more important for the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones during peak season, since SSTs are high enough regardless during this time (except in very unusual circumstances).
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COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1128 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-030000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0008.120602T2200Z-120603T0300Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1128 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

* LOCATION...THE COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
INCLUDING DELAWARE AND RARITAN BAYS.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE AT THE OCEAN FRONT IS BETWEEN 630 PM AND 700
PM. HIGH TIDE IN THE BACK BAYS OCCURS UP TO A FEW HOURS AFTER
THAT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIR.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$
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/me pulls the eye alarm.
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This is non-tropical what the 12z ECMWF has at 240 hours.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13272
Quoting CybrTeddy:
951. On the contrary with the Doc, I'd be rather surprised if we didn't, we're in a different setup than in 2009 which didn't see Ana until August. Shear is lower, SST's and TCHP in the Caribbean is higher than in 2009, ect.


It is also true that with the oncoming weak El Nino, the season will favor storms more early than later, so an active June-July period would be expected, with a quieter than normal August-October period.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey Levi, what do you think about the general pattern with the A/B high, SST's, ect. I'd love to see a video update regarding such!


I will probably post a bit on such things soon while it is still quiet. Right now I'm a little tied up performing maintenance on my website.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Quote from National Geographic NewsWatch:

Jeff Masters, director of the website Weather Underground, said water temperatures in the Atlantic are a little cooler than recent years, and this could reduce the number of tropical storms that form. Hurricanes draw their power from warm seawater near the surface that has been heated to at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (about 27 degrees centigrade).

Masters noted that winter winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean - where hurricanes most often form in the summer - were stronger than usual. These strong winter winds caused cooler water to be brought to the surface, so it will take longer for the water to warm up enough to fuel hurricanes.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see another tropical storm until August," Masters said.

http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/06/0 1/13-named-storms-2-major-hurricanes-predicted-for -summer-of-2012/


DOWNCASTER!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
951. On the contrary with the Doc, I'd be rather surprised if we didn't, we're in a different setup than in 2009 which didn't see Ana until August. Shear is lower, SST's and TCHP in the Caribbean is higher than in 2009, ect.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
951. CaicosRetiredSailor
7:00 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Quote from National Geographic NewsWatch:

Jeff Masters, director of the website Weather Underground, said water temperatures in the Atlantic are a little cooler than recent years, and this could reduce the number of tropical storms that form. Hurricanes draw their power from warm seawater near the surface that has been heated to at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (about 27 degrees centigrade).

Masters noted that winter winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean - where hurricanes most often form in the summer - were stronger than usual. These strong winter winds caused cooler water to be brought to the surface, so it will take longer for the water to warm up enough to fuel hurricanes.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see another tropical storm until August," Masters said.

http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/06/0 1/13-named-storms-2-major-hurricanes-predicted-for -summer-of-2012/
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
950. SouthDadeFish
6:58 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Mawar's eye is starting to clear out:

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
949. CybrTeddy
6:20 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Hey Levi, what do you think about the general pattern with the A/B high, SST's, ect. I'd love to see a video update regarding such!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
948. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:18 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52197
947. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:14 PM GMT on June 02, 2012
Quoting Levi32:
It would make sense to have activity pick up again after June 15th, for the models are in better agreement on the MJO returning to phases 8 and 1 in 2-3 weeks than they were the last time, when the GFS timing was way too fast with it. 2-3 weeks also gives the incredibly negative AO that we're going into a chance to subside, for the arctic blocking needs to go away if we are going to have any tropical threats in the Atlantic.

anytime after jun 8 to the 13 we will start seeing some more activity
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52197

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.