The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting windshear1993:
nice to meet u..lets play a hurricane quiz u ask me some trivia questions and i answer them i..bored now nothing to talk about in the atlantic so are u up for it?


I am.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20409
Quoting windshear1993:
either way its still gonna die haha


If these are truly tropical waves, then odds are the loss of convection doesn't signal their demise. Often times, tropical waves that may be devoid of shower activity or deep convection move westward across the tropical Atlantic while still retaining a well-defined lower- to middle tropospheric cyclonic wind signature. Indeed, many early season storms in either basin originate from tropical waves void of convection that are seemingly "dead".
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20409
Quoting tornadodude:


nice to meet you, Matt, been here since 06 haha
nice to meet u..lets play a hurricane quiz u ask me some trivia questions and i answer them i..bored now nothing to talk about in the atlantic so are u up for it?
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Quoting tornadodude:


someone's a little defensive.

No harm in posting a map showing wave moving across Africa. Chill ;)
Agreed its good to post these maps just an appetizer for when we really need to watch the coast of africa even though i think we will have an pretty limited cape verde season with not that many storms developing in this region i bilieve we will have homegrown systems this year and more landfalls but thats my opinion.
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Quoting nigel20:

Most of the convection will die off due to the SAL, but not from wind shear...shear is low in the tropical Atlantic
either way its still gonna die haha
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Quoting windshear1993:
oh sorry didnt mean to come off deffensive..and yea there gonna die before they even reach the sea that last one off the coast had a ton of convection a few frames ago now its all fizzled up becuase of the sal and im adam btw nice 2 meet u new on here as of yesterday


nice to meet you, Matt, been here since 06 haha
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Quoting windshear1993:
and your point of this?? and if its about the waves on afica they will all die becuase of sal and windshear


A matter of debate that is.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23898
1290. nigel20
Quoting windshear1993:
and your point of this?? and if its about the waves on afica they will all die becuase of sal and windshear

Some of the convection may die off due to the SAL, but not from wind shear...shear is low in the tropical Atlantic


Purple denotes lower shear
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Quoting tornadodude:


someone's a little defensive.

No harm in posting a map showing wave moving across Africa. Chill ;)
oh sorry didnt mean to come off deffensive..and yea there gonna die before they even reach the sea that last one off the coast had a ton of convection a few frames ago now its all fizzled up becuase of the sal and im adam btw nice 2 meet u new on here as of yesterday
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Quoting windshear1993:
and your point of this?? and if its about the waves on afica they will all die becuase of sal and windshear


someone's a little defensive.

No harm in posting a map showing wave moving across Africa. Chill ;)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and your point of this?? and if its about the waves on afica they will all die becuase of sal and windshear
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1286. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1052 BahaHurican: Hmmmm. Been reading a few of the comments from earlier in the day, and I have a little concern with the single analogue year concept some bloggers are employing. I find it hard to believe only one year in the record demonstrates the qualities we can expect this year to have. Shouldn't there be more data?

Might have entered a NEW climate regime, eg:
Dr.Gray and CSU dropped SAL from their AtlanticHurricaneSeason prediction-model -- I think it's in one of the earlier blogs -- pointing out that it hasn't been a useful prediction tool since 1996 or so.
Absolutely ridiculous numbers of new-record 1st, 2nd, and 3rd largest wildfires since then from SouthernCalifornia thru Nevada thru Arizona thru Utah thru Colorado thru NewMexico to Texas. Last year alone, Texas had 6 of the 10 largest wildfires in its historical record.
LOTS and LOTS of other strange stuff like snow in the MiddleEast near the Gulf of Arabia.

IF we are crossing the threshold into the NewClimate, the older portions of the historical record may not be that helpful in providing data of continuing climatological-only model relevance.
The number of relevant analog years to choose amongst may have shrunken to fewer than 20.
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1284. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:


How are you?

I'm pretty good... thanks for asking!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


This isn't pertinent to anything, but, how old are you? Looking at your picture you look awfully young.
when someone said nakedjuice lol and im 18 btw thanks lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


12/7/3.

Good to see you, btw.
thanks
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
my prediction is 12 storms 5 hurricanes and 2 majors so a pretty average year.


12/7/3.

Good to see you, btw.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20409
Quoting nigel20:

You're hard at work Kori!


How are you?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20409
1279. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yo. I'm working on my TCR for Beryl. I'll try and get Aletta's and Bud's down over the next four days. I still haven't done the six-hour estimates and best track for any of them, but I plan to get back to that after I compile all the reports.

You're hard at work Kori!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm forced to stock the shelves with it at Walmart. Luckily no customer has asked about it yet, but that would be extremely amusing.

Haha. The stares of disapproval you'd get if you were to say "I'm just stocking Naked at aisle 3!". Priceless.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
my prediction is 12 storms 5 hurricanes and 2 majors so a pretty average year.
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1276. Skyepony (Mod)
04W MAWAR

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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Kori...what's up?


Yo. I'm working on my TCR for Beryl. I'll try and get Aletta's and Bud's down over the next four days. I still haven't done the six-hour estimates and best track for any of them, but I plan to get back to that after I compile all the reports.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20409
Quoting windshear1993:
sounds like a porn site 2 me


This isn't pertinent to anything, but, how old are you? Looking at your picture you look awfully young.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20409
1273. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm forced to stock the shelves with it at Walmart. Luckily no customer has asked about it yet, but that would be extremely amusing.

Hey Kori...what's up?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm forced to stock the shelves with it at Walmart. Luckily no customer has asked about it yet, but that would be extremely amusing.
sounds like a porn site 2 me
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I lost it when I saw the URL. "nakedjuice.com" LOL
I've never seen that drink in PR.


I'm forced to stock the shelves with it at Walmart. Luckily no customer has asked about it yet, but that would be extremely amusing.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20409
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ok guys we've been off-topic when we really shouldn't be. Let's get back to the weather. :P

Beautiful storm.
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1269. nigel20
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ugly and Uglier.
You really make me laugh with these comment.
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1267. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
11:00 AM PhST June 3 2012
=======================================

"AMBO" has intensified into a typhoon and continues to move in a north northeastward direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 19.0°N 125.1°E or 320 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gust of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots

Signal Warnings
===================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
============
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Calayan Islands

Additional Information
=======================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas, under public storm warning signal #1, are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "Ambo" " is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over the whole country especially the western section.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of northern and central Luzon due to the combined effect of Typhoon "Ambo" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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1266. nigel20
Good evening everyone!

SST anomaly

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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31905
Quoting GHOSTY1:

Yes sir, and that why i like to monitor it just in case instead of keepin my attention all totally on certain systems. i mean i keep more attention on the more pertinant threat but keep the other possibilities in the peripheral vision. if that makes sense
yea this is gonna be a long season but in my opinion i dont feel anything happening i just dont see it these last 2 seasons was active but didnt do much except for irene which was one storm that caught our attentions
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WxGeekVA: Is it just me or is the GFS is performing a lot better recently in the 6-10 day range since the upgrade?

I noticed a weirdity last year in which GFS at 120hours/5days well outperformed other models in all time frames, and well outperformed GFS itself for either more than or less than 120hours.
Coulda been perception bias. Notice something a couple of times or so, and it grabs your attention every other time it happens while ya don't particularly notice when it doesn't happen.
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1262. GHOSTY1
Quoting windshear1993:
plus we have 2 wait and see becuase anything can happen

Yes sir, and that why i like to monitor it just in case instead of keepin my attention all totally on certain systems. i mean i keep more attention on the more pertinant threat but keep the other possibilities in the peripheral vision. if that makes sense
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Quoting windshear1993:
yea not always
plus we have 2 wait and see becuase anything can happen
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1260. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26013
Quoting GHOSTY1:

haha thanks, i like to think of the possibilities as well as the logical facts. because sometimes things dont always turn out the way we think they will
yea not always
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1258. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Mawar is now forecast to become a Major Typhoon.



Super Typhoon is 130 knots, by the way
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey, td, see this?




yessir. Almost went out there today, but the temperature to dew point spreads weren't favorable for tornadoes. Tomorrow in southern Kansas, maybe ;)
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1256. Grothar
Hey, td, see this?


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26013
Quoting Grothar:


Look who's talking!!!!!

Hence "we". ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31905
There were 51 tornadoes confirmed during May 2012: 28 EF0s, 15 EF1s, 6 EF2s, 2 EF3s, 0 EF4s and 0 EF5s.

This has got to be among the quietest on record.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31905
Cross-cirrus are an indication that the storm is strengthening.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31905
1252. GHOSTY1
Quoting windshear1993:
yea it would cant believe its list 4 again lol it seems like every time we get to this list theres the chances of elnino this list only had 3 names retired wow could that all change this year who knows what list 4 is cappable of this year..intresting fact btw you think

haha thanks, i like to think of the possibilities as well as the logical facts. because sometimes things dont always turn out the way we think they will
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1251. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ok guys we've been off-topic when we really shouldn't be. Let's get back to the weather. :P



Look who's talking!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26013
Quoting Grothar:


I may be old, td, but I don't miss anything. There were a few good lines I had to let go tonight. You have the distinction of being the only person who ever got me banned. GeoffWPB came close a few times, but I dodged those.


hahaha yeah, I remember that. Ive had my share of bans as well. good times
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1249. Grothar
Quoting tornadodude:


someone had to catch it! haha


I may be old, td, but I don't miss anything. There were a few good lines I had to let go tonight. You have the distinction of being the only person who ever got me banned. GeoffWPB came close a few times, but I dodged those.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


wow the whole north part of the storm is the eye wall
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Ok guys we've been off-topic when we really shouldn't be. Let's get back to the weather. :P

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31905

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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