The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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Quoting tornadodude:
Decided to sit out today's chase. The amount of instability in the warm sector is questionable, due to the amount of cloud cover over Southern Kansas right now. Also, the newer model runs have been showing lower helicity values as well.

Maybe I will miss a good show, but I think I'll be okay with my decision ;)

If this is questionable, I'd hate to see what you find awesome lol.

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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. All quiet here in my neck of Louisiana. Supposed to rain on Wednesday when I head to Florida. Why does it always want to rain when I'm driving somewhere? *S*



In that case, Aislinnpaps, I'd like to invite you to take a tour of the west coast of Florida, with a lengthy stop-over in Cape Coral and Fort Myers! ;-P

(Good luck/stay safe...)
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Decided to sit out today's chase. The amount of instability in the warm sector is questionable, due to the amount of cloud cover over Southern Kansas right now. Also, the newer model runs have been showing lower helicity values as well.

Maybe I will miss a good show, but I think I'll be okay with my decision ;)
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1443. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53808
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This may explain the odd EURO run.

According to NWS we have a slight chance of mostly light rain showers in South Central Texas for a couple of days starting Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some areas could get 1/4 to 1/2 inch each day in heavier showers.
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1441. Patrap
Quoting observing:
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1440. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
1439. LargoFl
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED TONIGHT...

CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-032030-
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.Y.0007.120604T0100Z-120604T0500Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
414 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE SHORELINE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...AROUND 1/2 FT.

* TIMING...DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

KINGS POINT NY......1105 PM..........9.8...........MINOR.....
GLEN COVE NY........1118 PM.........10.1...........MINOR.....
STAMFORD CT.........1111 PM..........9.9...........MINOR.....
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1108 PM..........9.3...........MINOR.....

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting weatherbro:


Actually it was Cyclone Tracy in the South Pacific.

No, he is right. Cyclone Tracy's tropical storm-force winds extended out 30 miles from the center, while Tropical Storm Marco's tropical storm-force winds extended only 12 miles from the center. Cyclone Tracy held the record before Marco, though.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. My teardrops would give a larger satellite presentation.


Actually it was Cyclone Tracy in the South Pacific.
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1436. LargoFl
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. All quiet here in my neck of Louisiana. Supposed to rain on Wednesday when I head to Florida. Why does it always want to rain when I'm driving somewhere? *S*
LOL Have a safe trip
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Good morning, everyone. All quiet here in my neck of Louisiana. Supposed to rain on Wednesday when I head to Florida. Why does it always want to rain when I'm driving somewhere? *S*
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1433. hydrus
This system forecast for Canada looks intense. There will be rough weather for a lot of folks today and tomorrow.Day 1 convective outlook corr 1
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 am CDT sun Jun 03 2012


Valid 031300z - 041200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
central/Southern Plains...


Expanded area information in ... section and corrected genl
thunderstorm area.


...
A deep upper low will remain over the Great Lakes region today as
heights rise across the Central Plains and southwest. A large area
of convection has traversed the Central Plains overnight...with the
remnant mesoscale convective vortex now over eastern Kansas. This system will continue to move
eastward into MO/Arkansas today providing widespread clouds and
precipitation. In the wake of this system...clouds are eroding over
parts of Kansas/OK where strong afternoon heating and moistening will
occur. This will likely lead to a region of strong instability with
MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 j/kg and only weak capping. Model
solutions are diverse in terms of timing and location of convective
initiation this afternoon...but it appears the greatest threat of
severe storms will be from parts of central/eastern Kansas southward
into northern/central OK. Effective shear profiles in this region
would favor supercells capable of very large hail and damaging
winds. Storms will likely persist into the evening and propagate
southeastward into western/central Arkansas.


...
The overnight mesoscale convective system has added complexity to the forecast of severe
storms over parts of Nebraska/Iowa today. Widespread clouds associated
with the mesoscale convective vortex will retard daytime heating this morning. Low level
moisture and instability has also been affected over Kansas...which may
also affect northward transport through the day. Few if any
operational models now initiate organized convection north of the
Kansas/Nebraska border. For these reasons have opted to remove the slight
risk in this area.


...
The southern flank of the remnant convective cluster is now moving
into northwest Arkansas. There is some risk that these storms will
rejuvenate by middle afternoon as they interact with stronger northwest
flow along and spread into the central Gulf Coast states. Strong
instability is forecast to develop in this region...along with
sufficient vertical shear for organized multicell or supercell
storms. Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 am CDT sun Jun 03 2012


Valid 041200z - 051200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of northern Idaho/western and
central Montana and vicinity...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the middle MS valley region
east-southeastward across the southeast...


...
A large Gulf of Alaska low/trough is forecast to dig southeastward this
period...moving into the Pacific northwest through the second half of the
period. Downstream...an amplifying ridge is forecast across the
central U.S. And Canadian prairie...west of a second/very large
low/trough evolving over the eastern Continental U.S.. by the end of the
period...a highly amplified upper flow field will reside across the
Continental U.S..


At the surface...a cold front is forecast to sweep eastward into Idaho/Montana
and the Great Basin region...while a backdoor-type front sags
southward/southeastward across the southeast. Both of these boundaries will act to
focus severe weather potential this period.


..nrn Idaho/western and central Montana and vicinity...
Substantial severe weather threat appears to be evolving for day
2...as a very strong trough/lower over digging southeastward out of the Gulf
of Alaska begins to assume a negative tilt as it moves onshore across
the Pacific northwest. Ahead of this trough...fast/diffluent south-southwesterly middle-level
flow field will overspread Idaho/Montana through the day.


As a cold front shifts inland and a deepening surface low shifts
toward western Wyoming...a destabilizing warm sector will support widespread
storm development -- both across the higher terrain as well as in vicinity of
the low/trailing cold front...and the warm front across Montana. With
low-level southeasterly flow across Montana/northern Idaho north and NE of the surface low
beneath the fast/diffluent flow aloft...shear will favor
intensification/rotation of the developing storms -- with several
severe/supercell storms likely by early evening. Along with threat
for damaging winds...large hail is expected...and an isolated
tornado or two will also be possible -- especially across northern and
western Montana where the surface warm front is expected to reside. Severe
potential may continue into the overnight hours...as storms spread
eastward into central Montana.
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1432. Skyepony (Mod)
Heavy rain in northwest Cuba caused flooding throughout Mayabeque province and forced the evacuation of hundreds of people. Torrential rain began early this morning and continued for six hours. Flood waters were up to people's waists in some areas. About 100 homes were flooded and 500 people had to move to higher ground. Many roads have been washed out and forecasters say more rain's in store for the area tonight and tomorrow.
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1428 TropicalBruce: Post 1415 - At least it won't happen for a few billion years. I think I'll wait it out.

Not a quitter I see. Good for you. Most people woulda decided to move on.
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Footloose kick of your Sunday shoes...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
On 17May'12, sunspot 1476 produced an M5.1 solar flare that sent out a CoronalMassEjection expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth on 19May. "This solar flare was most unimpressive and the associated CME was only slightly more energetic. And looking at it optically, it was remarkably dim, it was, all things considered, a ninety-eight pound weakling of solar events."
Instead the Earth's magnetic field pulsed in response, which shouldn't have happened at all. And neutron monitors all round the world lit up for the first time in six years.
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Post 1415 - At least it won't happen for a few billion years.

I think I'll wait it out.
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Hopefully some of that moisture will make its way toward Tampa.
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I have one when was the last time the city of savannah georgia was directly impacted by a major hurricane?
I've been worried about you.Where have you been?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
816 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012


COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS OVER ERN CONUS THRU THE WEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL MID LEVEL HTS. MODIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE NEG HT ANOMALIES SHIFT SEAWARD AND
HTS RISE FROM THE WEST. ABOVE AVG TEMPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MS VALLEY TO THE
APPCHNS AS MID LEVEL HTS RISE. A MEAN TROF PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH RELOADING POTENTIAL.

WET ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AT THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC CLASH HERE WITH A STRONG PW BOUNDARY.
HIGH PW VALUES RETURN TO ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO NRN FL BY THE
WEEKEND AND EXPAND INTO COASTAL TX AND LA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THRU MUCH OF THIS PERIOD NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
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B or C
Quoting weatherforecast94:
Hey every one, I am going to do a quick poll:

How many storms will form off the West Africa Coast?


a. 0-1

b. 2-4

c. 5+
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WV interesting today.
Looks like twin screws over the Central and NEastern conus Link
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Hey every one, I am going to do a quick poll:

How many storms will form off the West Africa Coast?


a. 0-1

b. 2-4

c. 5+
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This may explain the odd EURO run.

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Wow, what a difference a week makes.
Moisture streaming through the GOM.
Link GOM WV Loop



Link Western ATL WV Loop

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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
21:00 PM JST June 3 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (970 hPa) located at 19.7N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 23.3N 127.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 27.3N 132.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami daito waters
72 HRS: 30.3N 138.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan


Finnally JMA did the right thing!
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1418. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
21:00 PM JST June 3 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (970 hPa) located at 19.7N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 23.3N 127.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 27.3N 132.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami daito waters
72 HRS: 30.3N 138.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
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Looks like Red Flag conditions are expected for all of north and central Florida today and tomorrow as that dry air is poised to barrow through here!!!
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aspectre- Can you plot one of your GCM time lines on Andomeda's 'landfall'? he he
good morning everyone
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Yipes, landfall by a cyclone a wee bit larger than the typical hurricane is expected soon.

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1414. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
1413. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
1412. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
1411. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
1410. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

GAZ039-050-051-058>062-069>076-078>086-089>098-10 2>113-032200-
WILKES-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANC OCK-WARREN-UPSON-
LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JE FFERSON-HARRIS-
TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-JOHN SON-EMANUEL-
MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH- HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-
LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-CRI SP-PULASKI-
WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
345 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...

...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...


RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR 4 HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

WITH DRY FUELS...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES CONCERNING
WHETHER YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
1409. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
517 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-032130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
517 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO CRITICAL VALUES AWAY FROM THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WILD FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NATURE
COAST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
1408. LargoFl
Northern florida and the nature coast,pls pay attention to your local warnings on Tuesday,not going to be a nice day up there..i'll post the info for you next
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Looks like another hazy, overcast, drizzly day in the Central and NW Bahamas.....



Think I need some coffee....
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1399 PolishHurrMaster: If - in some way - tropical storms and hurricanes in last 5 years would move 5 degress further west,which hurricane would be most damaging and where it would hit?

There are at least 3 ways to interpret your question:
1) 5degrees west of the actual landfall position.
2) Where the landfall position would have been if the entire storm path had been shifted 5degrees westward at each recorded position.
3) Where the landfall position would have been if the storm's heading (direction of travel) had changed by 5degrees west -- eg from eg from NNW to 5degrees west of NNW -- within the last 3hour-to-6hour period which includes landfall.
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Morning all.

Geoff, the little item in the lower right corner of the map you posted looks like it may be the first interesting AEW of the season. We were looking at it, a bit idly, I admit, late last night.
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All quiet on the Atlantic front...

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Good morning. Still no consensus among the models GFS/ECMWF about any future tropical development in the Atlantic basin for the next 10 days as the 00z runs didn't clarify anything.
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Thank you so much! :)
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1401. RTLSNK
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1400. LargoFl
.............................Good Morning folks!!, another hot and sunny day here in Florida,but something looks to be happening in north florida come tuesday,well thats days away..enjoy today..have a great one folks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
My question:
If - in some way - tropical storms and hurricanes in last 5 years would move 5 degress further west,which hurricane would be most damaging and where it would hit?
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1398. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 3 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 19.3N 125.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 22.0N 126.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 26.0N 130.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami daito waters
72 HRS: 29.4N 136.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
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1397. hydrus
Quoting gator23:
Test
Test complete..:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.