Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.
Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)
Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:
1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.
2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.
3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.
4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.
Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I doubt it'll be able to do that, but it would take second place which is still remarkable.
Wow I'm good! See comment 320, lol.
True... I wish we could get a more accurate measurement though.
Here is the forecast track.
Another recurver... Should be a nice typhoon too.
Man, that thing is down all of the time. Can't help it here in MS...Y'all know weez po.
LOL. Sounds like us.
You just gotta know which part of the state to visit. Here in the SE part of the state, we got them fancy flyin' machines, teeth, money, shoes and a mullet or two. Can't say the rest of the state is as fortunate. LOL.
Hows things been goin' down there on the coast?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
446 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012
GAC183-191-312130-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-120531T2130Z/
LONG GA-MCINTOSH GA-
446 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH AND SOUTHEASTERN LONG COUNTIES...
AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR TIBET...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.
PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...
SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...EULONIA...
JONES...TIBET AND TOWNSEND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY
FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS
AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND
POWER LINES...PLEASE CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.
&&
LAT...LON 3150 8162 3159 8167 3167 8165 3166 8146
3149 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 300DEG 4KT 3160 8158
$$
Yes. I believe that you are referencing the BEST report conducted by a team at the University of California-Berkley. A well know physicists, Richard Muller, was skeptical of the temperature data for the past 100 years and executives of the oil industry help to fund Muller's research to verify/disprove the temperature data. Richard Muller found that the warming is probably greater than previously thought to be. You can read more about this here - Berkley Report Disappoints Climate-Change Skeptics
Semi true... LOL! Actually we are a DoD site so we don't have a redundant system. Most NWS sites have two transmitters that you can toggle between to have continued coverage while performing maintenance. The reason it is "down all the time" is because we have to take it down for inspections and alignments, but unfortunately this time it is broke for now.
Things are good!! Just a little dry, but looks like that might change shortly. Have a good MCS heading in from the west, so maybe we can get a drop or two! Hope you're well!
NCAR scientists Marika Holland and David Bailey used the Community Climate System Model to study the possible future impacts of climate change on sea ice in the Arctic. The visualizations of their research in this video show the percent of ocean water covered by ice, which is called the sea-ice concentration.
The first visualization uses monthly data from their computer simulation, from 1979-2007. The second shows the computer model's portrayal of the state of the ice every September, from 1850-2100.
(Visualization by Tim Scheitlin, NCAR)
More about the Community Climate System Model:
http://www2.ucar.edu/magazine/features/ccsm-cesm
Will be, once I get that dang radar fixed!! LOL! Looking foward to the rain here too!
Short Wave IR
The mirrors would actually have to be placed in orbit above Earth. Once the sun's energy has reached the surface then a percentage of this energy still remains trapped due to the greenhouse effect. Certainly the mirrors would be more beneficial than dark land areas or dark waters. A plan has already been suggested to place an array of mirrors in orbit. As silly as it sounds, it may actually work. Much, much smarter people than I would have to do the feasibility study on this.
GAC027-075-185-312145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0164.120531T2100Z-120531T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
500 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BROOKS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
* UNTIL 545 PM EDT
* AT 500 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAHIRA...OR NEAR MORVEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-75
AT EXIT 29 AND CECIL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3109 8339 3097 8323 3080 8352 3088 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 224DEG 16KT 3089 8348
$$
18-WOOL
... Record daily minimum low temperature tied at International Falls
MN...
a record daily minimum low temperature of 29 degrees was tied at
International Falls MN this morning. This joins the old record of 29
set in 1910.
GAC027-075-185-312145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0164.120531T2100Z-120531T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
500 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BROOKS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
NORTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
* UNTIL 545 PM EDT
* AT 500 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAHIRA...OR NEAR MORVEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-75
AT EXIT 29 AND CECIL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3109 8339 3097 8323 3080 8352 3088 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 224DEG 16KT 3089 8348
$$
18-WOOL
The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... northeastern Seminole County in Florida southeastern Volusia County in Florida
* until 630 PM EDT.
* At 526 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Geneva... and moving northeast at 15 mph.
* Other locations in the warning include... but are not limited to... Deltona... Lake Helen... Maytown and Port Orange
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 miles an hour and or large destructive hail. Frequent to excessive lightning and very heavy rain will also be possible. If the storm approaches you... seek shelter in an enclosed building on the lowest floor. Keep away from windows.
Lat... Lon 2919 8105 2880 8084 2879 8091 2879 8097
2869 8108 2879 8132 2898 8136
time... Mot... loc 2130z 219deg 12kt 2879 8109
I don't get this; they are covering a very wide area here! Anyway, I'm off because my mother has dinner for me and I want to walk across the street before it starts coming down.Link Wundermap ECFL storms
Link
Thanks.
"That 250Gigatonnes is derived from an accelerating trend averaged over 7years, starting with ~75Gigatonne loss between 2003 and 2004.
Greenland's 2010to2011 ice loss was ~425Gigatonnes.
A Gigatonne of glacial ice contains a cubic kilometre of water."
So Greenland has an area of:-
(2,166,086 km)
425 cubic kilometers are 425,000,000 square kilometers at 1 millimeter thick
So if we divide the land area into the 425 million square kilometers of water at 1 millimeter thick then we get:-
Approximately 196 millimeters per square kilometer of water loss.
This means that to maintain the status quo of ice on Greenland an average of 196 millimeters of water in the form of snow must fall every year.
That would be about 8 inches of water or about 80 inches of snow.
I might be wrong with the calculations as I'm only using a small calculator but I cant see 80 inches of snow falling on every square kilometer of Greenland a year, so the ice loss is probably true and if the water falls as rain it will accelerate the melting!
In honor of the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season tomorrow, I finished my annual May Preseason Hurricane Forecast. For those interested, it can be accessed here:
Link
Also, I found it interesting how moist the Atlantic is today:
For such a result in less than 100years, it'd be a worse-than-worst case scenario relying on ever increasing greenhouse gas emissions and the entire worldwide energy content of the excess heat trapped by those extra greenhouse gases being focused solely upon glaciers and the land&seabed grounded polar ice-sheets.
Realisticly, a 6-to-7metre sea-level rise is what would happen eventually if all fossil-fuel and agricultural (especially including land-clearing) burning were to cease immediately AND there are no "surprise"s such as ever more numerous and ever larger forest fires due to drought and invasive species, huge increases in methane&CO2 production as organic material frozen in permafrost warms&decomposes and/or total permafrost and shallow-seabed methane clathrate melting.
Basicly, we've already locked ourselves (or our grandchildren and their grandchildren for the pessimists amongst you) in for a 6-to-7metre sea-leve rise in 300years or so, even assuming that we cease greenhouse gas production immediately.
I've run across only one Earth-based geo-engineering proposal that didn't read like something dreamt up by a cow pie. And I suspect that solar-powered (whether Sun, wind, or sea) carbon-dioxide suckers won't work:
Most of the energy falling on collecters turns immediately into heat. The electricity is turned into heat during the collection then transformation of carbon dioxide into other materials.
Add the energy-to-heat&pollution cost of making solar-based electricity generators...
....with the energy-to-heat&pollution cost for mining&transporting&processing ores into chemical reactants needed to make the process work...
...along with the associated energy-to-heat&pollution cost of environmental bioremediation...
So even if the math turns out to be favorable, such carbon re-sequestration is gonna be EXPENSIVE. And the lower the sequestration-to-energy efficiency, the higher the cost.
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