Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.
Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)
Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:
1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.
2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.
3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.
4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.
Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That why we need to just build some gigantic mirrors, put them in the Sahara, then BOOM. problem solves we are all millionaires.
This site is interesting and more realistic when it comes to visualizing average global sea level rise versus actual elevation. Mind you some places would see more and some would see a drop in sea levels. Even at 60m rise the flooding "only" reaches to Memphis.
Tornado season this year started off with a bang — an above-average number of twisters churned across the United States in the early months of 2012 — but lately, the storms have been more subdued.
And this spring hasn't seen the terrible twisters that devastated parts of the country last year.
So what's behind the quieter spring? Thank the jet stream, weather experts say.
Some possible good news for mid-Atlantic lovers of cool weather: it's looking more and more likely that, due to a negative NAO, parts of the Northeast will see very nice temperatures next week, with highs only in the 70s for a few weeks--that is, about 20-25 degrees cooler than the same week last year) The CPC is even picking up on it a bit; here's the 6-10 day forecast (and pay no attention to the 95-degree temps forecast for the Upper Mississippi Valley):
Link
It's moving around the lake:( dissipating every where
I added a word to your almost correct statement. Yes, turning grasslands and forests into heat absorbing pavement and buildings is one of the factors warming our world.
Also agricultural practices which increase methane and nitrogen oxide emissions increase warming.
As do methane leaks from drilling and transportation/storage.
As do chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)emissions.
But fossil fuel produce CO2 is the big boy in the room. That's the one that we need to concentrate on the most.
?
???
Patrap how could you?
*snicker*
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Very true... Though I believe if that tornado from last night had gone over a populated area it would have taken that award... Has that one been given a rating yet? Radar indicated it was probably at least EF 3.
Great minds.. they think alike ya know.
Enough to get a little attention for one well placed human life time? Reasonably, yes.
A statistically relevant sampling for the history of Greenland? Probably not.
An interesting read as part of a larger puzzle? Definitely.
804
WUUS54 KLIX 312031
SVRLIX
LAC117-312100-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0112.120531T2031Z-120531T2100Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLINTON...
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT
* AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FRANKLINTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
LAT...LON 3099 9015 3100 8990 3080 8989 3071 9020
3086 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 234DEG 17KT 3084 9017
That would be among the earliest storm #3 in an Atlantic tropical season if I'm not mistaken.
Wrong side of the bed this mornin'?
Ah okay, I could tell it sure wasn't an accurate future forecast but I couldn't rule out something hundreds of thousands or millions of years ago so I'd wondered if it were that.
Haha.
The MJO should just be coming back around that time, and 500 mb. pressure anomaly maps show negative values across the Gulf of Mexico around that time as well. The bad thing is, once you have something in the Gulf of Mexico, it has to hit land.
If "Chris" developed in June, it would be the earliest formation date for the third named storm in the 21st century. Not sure whether or not that would be a record though.
It also helps put up an avatar. Our regular trolls tend not to, so any avatar at all will help you appear non-troll.
Hasn't rained much here lately...bring it on. Ever since we finished the dam on the lake we built, it hasn't rained. We probably created the biggest drought ever. If we go bust the dam, well, the flood gates will open (pun super intended).
Yes it has. It was rated an EF0.
Thats 100 miles north of him
No way... That had to have been a different one as there were a couple others last night...
<<<
All three tornadoes produced by the supercell were rated EF0s.
Seriously. The mountain west covered by sea level rise while all of Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma stay above sea level. Nonsense and any kid should be able to see that.
And defaming the US Navy by slapping it's supposed approval on the map is even worse.
I don't believe that at all... You saw it just as well as I did... It was reported as a large, rain wrapped tornado and reported as being strong with a possible debris ball on radar.
No it's mine... LOL, hopefully we will have it back up tomorrow.
WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302151Z MAY 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.1N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.2N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.9N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 126.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 302151Z MAY 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 302200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z,
010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN
And it likely was a strong tornado. HOWEVER, considering it did not significantly impact any structures, you can only base its intensity off of what it destroyed--trees, and dirt.
It would be a record if it developed before June 11th, the previous record holder is 1887.
I doubt it'll be able to do that, but it would take second place which is still remarkable.
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