Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.
Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)
Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:
1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.
2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.
3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.
4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.
Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
That is not a backward low. That is an upper level low cutting off becoming cut off from the main jet stream and left behind.
Looks like a low that is trying to cut-off from the main stream.
I saw that... and found it hilarious on the most epic of levels. If we just legislate the "proper" way to measure something, then it can't possibly be measured in those pesky anti-business scientific ways. Nothing quite like the nonscientists telling scientists how things should be analyzed, measured, and forecasted.
another trough split..
Naw, i don't believe i will.
If you can't see a pronounced cycle of rising and falling temps and CO2 levels external to the influence of car engines, there, i don't believe you will see anything.
yes but it comes back from in the atlantic, you can see the previous runs here:
Link
It is the ecmwf 4 panel to 240hrs psu 500mb, 0Z run, i am now looking at the 12z run to see if it comes back again.
"Yes, i know we are at all time low levels, but im still convinced that the very high all time lows are whats causing the warming..."
I'm sorry, but that just non-sequitur to me. -- Cane
I'm sorry, you've lost me here.
The amount of CO2 we are dumping into the atmosphere artifically is at an all time, post industrial high and is projected to continously increase. This in a nutshell is the problem.
A number of denier types moved off to a site named something like this one but underground was replaced with the 'b' word.
They apparently were so disruptive on this site that linking to or directly naming the site has been forbidden in an attempt to get back to weather, climate and science.
As for you getting hit with the troll label at this time of year, when the tropical storm season gets underway, there are some people who register under multiple new names in order to disrupt. (For some reason this site attracts a lot of immature people.)
Some people have their troll detectors set at a very sensitive level.
Yeah, because things like the city limits expanding so that the historical official thermometer is now in the middle of 400 square acres of concrete, increasing its ambient temp reading must be preserved.
We must NEVER modify the way in which we take measurements, we must continue to do it the way we ALWAYS HAVE, because changing things to account for new knowledge and understanding is just downright UNSCIENTIFIC...
My mom sells lab equipment to scientists, and she was talking to one guy who said, If you are a government paid scientist the only safe place to be is looking for gw.. sad because we need the other areas of science also.
The higgs is so fundamental to the standard model too. We must find something like it
Link
I don't understand what you are trying to say.
Can you explain yourself better and offer some objective data to back up your claim?
Remember to put in your ear plugs.
Getting sand out of ear canals is a pain....
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMBO
11:30 PM PhST May 31 2012
=======================================
The Active Low Pressure Area east of Samar has intensified into a tropical depression and was named "AMBO"
At 10:00 PM PhST, A Tropical Depression was located at 12.3N 128.0E or 260 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.
Signal Warnings
===================
Signal Warning #1
Luzon Region
============
1. Catanduanes
Visayas Region
==============
1. Samar Provinces
Additional Information
=======================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-15 mm per hour (heavy) within the 200 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
...then on the other hand, pulls out a CO2 vs. temperature chart covering the entire Phanerozoic and promptly ignores that the solar output was significantly lower during the Paleozoic and Mesozoic.
Skeptical Science has this one covered, too. Short version - while right now, we need current solar output + 500ppm CO2 to have a planet with large ice caps, back in the mid-Paleozoic it took dipping below 3000ppm to grow/maintain ice caps due to decreased solar radiation.
Concrete and development IS a major influence with the urban heat island affect going on. This, is why we are in a warming world.
Now I have to ask-- from what source are you getting your information? Urban Heat Island effects have been noted, accounted for, and discarded as the cause for the observed temperature increases for years now.
This really is like a carnival "bad argument" shooting gallery, only there's no prize to win. Darn it.
That's what happens when an upper level low splits off or cuts off from the main jet stream. It gets trapped under ridging that comes into replace the trough dive and retrogrades back westward and stalls or meanders about until another trough dive comes in and picks up the cut off low.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 130.7E TO 14.7N 126.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 302130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 301916Z SSMI
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AND
UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS WITH A TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUAL RE-CURVE SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
Sorry, the heat island issue has been studied and factored out of the temperature record.
We have to adjust the way we collect and use measurements. Otherwise the data becomes useless due to changing conditions.
We had to adjust ocean temperature records because we realized that by using the water being pumped up for engine cooling (old method) was actually slightly heated above the actual surface water temperature.
We no longer use that faulty technique and we have adjusted the historical record downward to factor out the mistake we were making.
edit they left open for bussiness again
This is something that I would like to emphasize.
You want to be the most famous, celebrated and wealthy scientist alive?
Prove that the planet is not warming.
Or prove that the warming we are observing is not due to increases in greenhouse gases caused by humans burning fossil fuels.
Your comment count is 2 and your join date is very recent. You may get mistaken easily for something else. Hang in there and enjoy the ride.
Oh this will be coming back with a vengence
That's a crock.
We are spending much money on all sorts of scientific research. The guy your mother talked to was talking junk.
Dont attack anyone for any reason until its established your for real
what problems would it cause?
Good luck with rain
* Peak wind gusts in vicinity...
El Campo, TX, El Campo HS... N 36 mph at 1:48PM CDT
* Peak rain rates in vicinity...
Pearland, TX, Glenda Dawson HS... 0.48 "/hr at 1:50PM CDT
Altair, TX, Rice HS... 0.60 "/hr at 1:46PM CDT
Sugar Land, TX, St. Laurence Catholic School... 0.72 "/hr at 1:43PM CDT
Needville, TX, George Observatory... 1.24 "/hr at 1:42PM CDT
Houston, TX, Horn ES... 0.52 "/hr at 1:41PM CDT
u got mail.
FRESCA anyone?
It lasted a whole 8 minutes here lol. Doesn't look like we will get anything else either. West and Southwest of Houston got a lot of rain and are still getting it
It is all in the wording as you see he wrote "I do believe"
Thinking is rational believing is not.
If the Azores-Bermuda high establishes itself in that position for hurricane season, then it could indeed set up for more landfalling storms, especially since the best breeding grounds for tropical systems will be in the Southwest Atlantic near the Bahamas and the Southeast United States and the Gulf of Mexico.
Also, that storm system coming across the Northern Gulf looks like a pretty nasty set-up for potential flooding and severe weather as ridging builds over top to the north.
Maybe Blog about it here at Community Member Blogs® ...in one's own blog entry.
We have plenty of server room for one mo'.
I was just going to post this, funny! The high is very "low".
Well, for one, look at the position of the high pressure. That would steer many storms into the USA. Secondly, that's a potent low pressure area across the USA...could cause a Severe Weather outbreak. Last, I guess its possible that development could occur in the Gulf of off the East Coast off the tail end of the front.
Viewing: 201 - 251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index