Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 31, 2012

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The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.


Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card

Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)

Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card

Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:

1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.

2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.

3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.

4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.

Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting islander101010:
unlikely
Actually it's very likely that this could aid development in the caribbean in the next 10 days.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
Although it is hurricane season, we haven't really gotten going yet.
Dr. Rick Knabb does not take over till june 4.
THEN, hurricane season starts.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
731. wxmod
Quoting BobWallace:


Why do you ask?


Because you are promoting cutting down big trees and replacing them with small trees that you claim sequester carbon faster (without any proof for that thinking). From everything I've heard, up until your statement to the contrary, old growth forests sequester carbon a lot better. Timber industry people always try to vilify old growth trees, therefore I assume you work for the timber industry, or have ties to it.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1770
727 islander101010: unlikely

Maybe. But ya gotta admit that when puny ol' May has 2 more TropicalStorms than June, a little hurricane in the Caribbean would do a lot to make her look less pathetic.

Speaking of May, is catching 2 TropicalCyclones before the Season opens even legal?
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Enjoy the rain, Naples and Tampa! Here in the Cape Coral/Ft. Myers area we have discovered our new calling in life: manufacture of SHOWER CURTAINS!!!! That's right - just a few scattered drops here out of 24 hours of gloom.

(Siiiiiiiigggggghhhhhhhhh....

Forgive me for this rant, but dang, another rain event for us goes "poof!")
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Quoting aspectre:
The "2011TexasHigh" over the MidWest,OldSouth, and the EastCoast?
Would certainly put the UGH into ugly.


It's y'alls turn now. :P
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That could trigger the development in the caribbean that the GFS is showing.
unlikely
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Quoting HouGalv08:
One heck of a birthday present, the start of hurricane season!


happy birthday.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
Quoting Grothar:
40 years ago this month, Hurricane Agnes formed in that region. It caused some of the most devastating flooding in the Northeast, especially Pennsylvania.

Good morning Grothar. This caused severe flooding on the road my family lived on causing all the homes to be condemned(sp).
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maybe a MOD risk at the 1630z convective outlook.
Tropics appear dull for now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
Oh come on now a tor con of 4?.And the local meteorologist on fox 5 are so stupid in the morning.He is not taking this situation serious. (I'm looking at you Tucker Barnes).I hate watching Alison and Tony in the morning they dumb down everything.....I think this is serious and all they cane do is laugh and giggle at everything and and saw awwwww to my first 5 pics?.Why won't they give people a heads up?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
719 Grothar: [map]

A little eastward toward the Georgia coast and the Agnes track would nearly trace the almost expectable neutral-zone / path between the (712 map) projected continental high and the (716 map) lingering Atlantic high.
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Check out my new Hurricane video Welcome to Hurricane Season 2012Link
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40 years ago this month, Hurricane Agnes formed in that region. It caused some of the most devastating flooding in the Northeast, especially Pennsylvania.

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Well I'm getting ready for what I like to call these types of days.B-day.I'm going to be very busy today.My sons picnic starts at 11:30.So me and hubby have to load the truck to get some of the food down their to the park.Then server weather may foil plans :(.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
Link


Crown Weather
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Quoting aspectre:
The "2011TexasHigh" over the MidWest,OldSouth, and the EastCoast?
Certainly puts the UGH into ugly.


That persistant high in the Atlantic doesn't seem to want to go away, either. Could get ugly.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
That could trigger the development in the caribbean that the GFS is showing.


Yes, it could.
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The "2011TexasHigh" over the MidWest,OldSouth, and the EastCoast?
Would certainly put the UGH into ugly.
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Quoting Grothar:
Watching the first wave for development:



That could trigger the development in the caribbean that the GFS is showing.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17797
A very strong high is expected to build over the Continental US by mid-month. This normally leads to a lowering of pressures in the Gulf and the Caribbean. It could assist in any development of a system there.

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pressismilkingit!
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Watching the first wave for development:



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One heck of a birthday present, the start of hurricane season!
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blog2108page18comment892 WunderBlogAdmin: Hello Bloggers,
Lets remember to stay on-topic in Dr. Masters' blog! Referencing trolls is not considered on-topic.
Thank you so much!
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Yeeeehawwww...... Hurricane season officially begins, troll season begins on this day also ;) I've got plenty of ammo this year. Let all have a happy season and stay safe. Here's to good tracking. I'm so ready.
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Oh boy...
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I love tornadoes, far far far away... from anything if I had my druthers.
Instantaneous teleportation to the SouthPole would be the ideal for 'em.

Great map even so.
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Speaking of tornadoes, I ran across this yesterday on Gizmodo. It's a nice-looking map of every U.S. tornado track from 1950 thropugh 2006 (though it doesn't really show track, but rather a straight line connecting the start and end point of each twister. But still.). The stronger the tornado, the wider and brighter the line. Several items are very obvious, such as the high-altitude EF-4 that tore through the Rocky Mountains in Wyoming; the Appalachian void; the long-track Central Florida killer; and the fact that if you love tornadoes, the West is not the place to be.

Click here for full-size image:
tornado
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13793
Quoting Neapolitan:
That was a deadly storm; I'll never forget the high-rise video of it (though your top image is of last year's Tuscaloosa storm).


Good catch... I put in a different picture... Guess that's what I get for using google images.
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happy hurricane season, have fun and be safe (:
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Today, June 1st marks the one year anniversary of an EF3 tornado which tore through Springfield, MA leaving three people dead and $140 million in damage in its wake
That was a deadly storm; I'll never forget the high-rise video of it (though your top image is of last year's Tuscaloosa storm).

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13793
Today, June 1st marks the one year anniversary of an EF3 tornado which tore through Springfield, MA leaving three people dead and $140 million in damage in its wake







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Quoting sunlinepr:
Tropical Waves on the way!
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-012200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY INLAND WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42039
........good morning folks, cloudy and rain in the forecast for today here in errr..sunny Florida lol..good we need the rain..have a great day everyone..oh..Tampa..lower the shields..lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42039
Well, I guess another weekend of rain for the Keys :(


SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL AS LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO BETWEEN 40 TO
55 MPH. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN
NEAR 20 MPH. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 2 PLUS INCHES PER HOUR HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY THROUGHOUT THE ISLAND CHAIN...AS WELL AS OVER LOCAL STREETS
IN ALL KEYS ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY ROADSIDE
CULVERTS OR DITCHES.
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Last year was kinda nice. Low*casualties, lots of verrry interestink "fish" storms, with only a couple that caused extensive*property damage.

* ie when compared to what easily "coulda been" instead.
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Finally! June 1st! Let's get this party started! Hopefully it will be better than last year. ;)
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Alberto past the Gulf of Mexico sounds like Beryl past the Caribbean.
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I just finished compiling my TCR on Alberto. I may add or subtract to this report as new data becomes available. Also, I decided to go ahead and do six-hourly position, intensity, and pressure estimates, as well as a "best track" of the storm (they're not out yet, obviously :P). This seems pretty excessive, and with work, I honestly might not be able to do it. But I'll go down fighting!

Anyways ladies and gents, without further ado, let's get right down to the nitty gritty:

------------------------------------------------- ----

Tropical Storm Alberto

AL012012

19 May - 22 May

Alberto was an out of season tropical storm, the first of two, that developed in the month of May in the north Atlantic. Alberto did not affect land.

a. Storm history

Alberto's origins appear to have begun as early as 10 May. During this time, satellite and water vapor imagery images showed that a well-defined upper-tropospheric cold low, accompanied by a well-marked cold front, entered west Texas. The front entered the Gulf of Mexico early on 12 May. Although the front gradually decayed, it became quasi-stationary over the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly in response to being sandwiched between two high pressure areas. During this time, the front produced intermittent clusters of showers and thunderstorms. The preexisting large-scale cyclonic flow was reinforced in this area by the passage of several shortwave perturbations in the semipermanent mid-latitude pressure belt. The associated cloudiness moved across the Florida peninsula, and entered the western Atlantic on 16 May. The activity moved steadily northeastward and soon became entangled with an approaching trough.

The southern portion of this activity became stationary over the western Atlantic waters, while the northern portion of the trough continued moving northward. Around 1200 UTC 17 May, satellite and radar animations showed that a cloud mass formed over central South Carolina, possibly associated with a weak mesoscale convective system (MCS). This system moved offshore shortly after 0000 UTC 18 May, and later ASCAT data indicated the presence of a small surface circulation. The small low continued to become better organized, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed from it around 1200 UTC 18 May, while centered about 100 miles south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given.

The depression became a tropical storm about 6 hr later. Initially, Alberto was embedded in a region of weak steering currents, and drifted slowly southwest. Based on a nearby ship report, the cyclone reached its estimated peak intensity of 50 kt around 2100 UTC. Soon thereafter, the tropical storm began to weaken under increasing southwesterly shear. In addition, water vapor imagery during this time suggests that Alberto was ingesting a very dry airmass over the southeastern United States, which likely counteracted the otherwise favorable sea surface temperature regime of the Gulf Stream. Synoptic steering currents gradually became more defined as a weak upper-level trough moved through the Ohio Valley, and Alberto responded with a gradual turn to the south and southeast, on a track well offshore the southeastern United States coast.

Continuously battered by marginal atmospheric and thermodynamic parameters -- namely dry air and wind shear, Alberto weakened to a tropical depression near 0000 UTC 22 May. At that time, the center became almost completely exposed to the west of a diminishing area of showers. Convection subsequently increased, but this activity was disorganized, and is not assumed to have been sufficient to bring Alberto back to a tropical storm. Later that day, around 1200 UTC, the cyclone became a remnant low while located approximately 160 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Moving northeastward, the remnant low lost its identity within a broad and nearly-stationary trough that extended from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to Bermuda. This same trough would soon assist in the formation of Tropical Storm Beryl.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
My thought inre 687, BobWallace, is that tree roots rot faster and more thoroughly than you assume.
I could be wrong since I'm basing that on personal encounters with old roots rather than on a survey of the literature.

Oh, and I do know that trees store their extra minerals&nutrients in their root systems. eg Before leaf fall, most of a leaf's crucial minerals&nutrients are transfered to the root system: that transfer being what (near)kills the leaf and weakens its connection to its supporting twig, allowing the leaves to fall.
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689. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 1 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mawar (998 hPa) located at 14.9N 125.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 17.1N 125.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.0N 126.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 20.4N 126.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting aspectre:
681 BobWallace: Are you saying that after the first generation of trees, subsequent generations use that root-stored carbon rather than CO2 from the atmosphere?

Nope. Though the increased CO2 level from rotting might also have a small effect on growth rate, the amount of CO2 already in the air is more than enough.
The limiting factors to growth&reproduction are other minerals and nutrients. And trees store a lot of those minerals and nutrients in their roots. Rotting releases those nutrients in a highly digestable form.
To new trees, the cellulose decay (much into CO2 and methane) is just a not-particularly useful side-effect of the rotting. Following rotted rootlines is probably easier and might be "smarter" than driving a new rootline through fresh soil and rock.

What might work sequestration-wise is harvesting the lumber, air-drying it, then turning it into charcoal. Use the flamable volatile gases produced during charcoal-production to heat the lumber to turn it into charcoal. Then stuff the charcoal into coal-mines/etc.
Of course it'd make a lot more sense to not mine the fossil-fuels in the first place -- coal and tar-sands/shale are especially dirty energy producers -- and use the charcoal*gases for energy production (along with charcoal-to-coke directly for industrial processes that need coke).

* LOTs of other organic volatiles in charcoal-gas than the hydrogen, methane, and carbon monoxide produced by the coal-gas process.


It's late, I'm tired, let me take a quick shot at this...

Trees can have 40% to 50% of their total mass below ground. Those roots are mostly carbon which is pulled out of the atmosphere in the form of CO2.

If you let a tree reach some decent size, cut it down, replant another, then you will sequester another "40%" worth of carbon. Cut and replant - another "40%".

Each growth cycle sequesters more carbon.

Additionally, growing trees absorb more CO2 than do mature trees.

The rotting cellulose of old trees which releases carbon back into the cycle is mainly the portion of the tree/plant which is above ground. Not the root structure.

The rotting structure below ground releases nutrients but (I think) little if any carbon is taken in by roots.

Point is, biomass is likely a carbon negative fuel. Growing trees (or switchgrass, for example) pulls CO2 from the atmosphere and returns less when burned for fuel.

Unless I've got my biology wrong....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Deer/etc also drop their antlers. Hang a set on a nearby tree, then watch the squirrels nibble on them.
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685. vanwx
Any tree that shades the ground, lowers wind rake and increases permeability of the soil protects the local hydrologic cycle.
Up in the land of cariboo there is scant soil, just a sponge of moss on top of rock usually; it's a hole different world of nutrient storage.
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681 BobWallace: Are you saying that after the first generation of trees, subsequent generations use that root-stored carbon rather than CO2 from the atmosphere?

Nope. Though the increased CO2 level from rotting might also have a small effect on growth rate, the amount of CO2 already in the air is more than enough.
The limiting factors to growth&reproduction are other minerals and nutrients. And trees store a lot of those minerals and nutrients in their roots. Rotting releases those nutrients in a highly digestible form.
To new trees, the cellulose decay into (mostly) CO2 and methane is just a not-particularly useful side-effect of the nutrient release process. Following rotted rootlines is probably easier and might be "smarter" than driving a new rootline through fresh soil and rock.

What might work sequestration-wise is harvesting the lumber, air-drying it, then turning it into charcoal. Use the flamable volatile gases produced during charcoal-production to heat the lumber to turn it into charcoal. Then stuff the charcoal into coal-mines/etc.
Of course it'd make a lot more sense to not mine the fossil-fuels in the first place -- coal and tar-sands/shale are especially dirty energy producers -- and use the charcoal*gases for energy production (along with charcoal-to-coke directly for industrial processes that need coke).

Foreseeable problem is that the remnant charcoal would also contain elements necessary for life such as sodium, magnesium, potassium, calcium, phosphorus, etc. And I think that the coking process (that'd release those life elements) uses too much energy to allow justification of coke burial.

* LOTs of other organic volatiles in charcoal-gas than the hydrogen, methane, and carbon monoxide produced by the coal-gas process.
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FCST HODOGRAPHS...WHILE FAVORABLE IN BOTH REGIMES...DO NOT APPEAR AS LARGE OVER BROAD AREAS AS ON MOST ERN-CONUS TORNADO OUTBREAK DAYS...AND THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES ATTM REGARDING DENSITY/LONGEVITY OF ANY SUPERCELL MODES.

Hopefully they're right about that...but I'll be watchin out tomorrow!


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


GREATEST RELATIVE SPATIAL OVERLAP/DENSITY OF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
BE FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN NC ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION. THAT CORRIDOR REPRESENTS SPATIAL OVERLAP OF THREAT FROM 1.
EARLIER/MORE DISCRETE AND DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHERE DISCRETE OR
EMBEDDED/CLUSTERED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SPECIFIC FOCI FOR
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARE MORE NEBULOUS AND UNCERTAIN...AND
2. MORE CERTAIN ARRIVAL OF LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING QLCS ACTIVITY
CONTAINING EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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