Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.
Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)
Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:
1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.
2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.
3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.
4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.
Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think we can agree, this isn't a TD anymore. :P
Or can we...?
31/2132 UTC 14.0N 125.7E T2.0/2.0 04W -- West Pacific
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1006.9mb/ 30.0kt
Whoo-Hoo
started 2 weeks ago as far as I am concerned.
And the official agency at WPAC JMA still has not upgraded to TS.
WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 13.4N 126.8E POOR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 16.8N 125.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
9:00 AM JST June 1 2012
=================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 13.4N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.8N 125.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Like Cody said, don't put too much stock in a satellite image.
Hey! I never said that. I wholeheartedly believe it is a tropical storm right now, but it won't be declared one officially because of those satellite estimate numbers.
WP042012 - Tropical Depression FOUR
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
I still stand by what I said. It probably is a tropical storm now, but I've seen tropical cyclones look better than this, with centers seemingly under the convection, only to find out that isn't the case.
2012JUN01
0100AM 01JUN
T3.6
982hPa
ZCZC 317
WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 13.4N 126.8E POOR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
Taking advantage of the current lull, should I start writing my TCRs now, or wait until the winter?
A: Now
B: Winter
C: Don't do them because you're an idiot
A.
That's what I plan to do.
You mean like you promised daily blogs this year? >_>
Hey >:| I'm doing just fine!
Who forecast Beryl from its inception to its demise? It sure wasn't you. ;)
Some things to take into consideration:
1. Even though JMA is the official agency in the Western Pacific, it doesn't mean that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center won't classify this as a tropical storm say in about 30-45 minutes from now.
2. When this depression gains Tropical Storm strength (via the Japan Meteorological Agency), the name given will be Mawar.
D. Some now, then get distracted and not finish until winter. That's how I'd end up doing it! -__-
It might just be me, but the JMA seems a lot more conservative. Probably due to their systematic use of wind speeds (10 minute).
Good for you.
I know, right?
D. What lull? Time before the official start of the hurricane season counts as a lull? XD
And I will also go with A.
I agree. I also hate the fact that they DO use 10 minute sustained winds because most people have no clue how to convert it to 1 minute sustained, me included.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT IS THROUGH...CWA WILL BE WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 12Z NAM/GFS POSITION THE
FRONT OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH 999/1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA. FORECAST SBCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY
TO TRIGGER STORMS...AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HELICITY ON DULLES AIRPORT NAM SOUNDING
APPROACHES 200 M2/S2 BY 21Z. SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
The CIMSS ADT estimates aren't though.
We did this for Hurricane Andrew's 20th anniversary.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.7N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.6N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.4N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 125.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z
AND 020300Z.//
I need them up from 5-9. My daughter has her 8th grade dance tomorrow UGH
I've been waiting to see who spotted that area first.
It's been an AOI for us here for over 24 hours now.
D
"D" stands for Definitely do them, but at a time that meets your schedule and not ours.
Germany produces 50% of energy from solar during mid-day hours — ‘Equivalent to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity without any radioactive waste left over’
Published: May 31st, 2012 at 8:48 am ET
Germany Hits Record In Solar Power With 50% Of Energy During Mid-Day Hours
Jonathan Turley, Legal Expert
May 28, 2012
Germany’s economy is viewed as the most successful major economy in the world today and the key bedrock for European recovery. While many conservative leaders in the United States are calling on the tearing up of environmental protections to help our economy, Germany has shown the fallacy of that claim. The Germans continue to set new records on environmental protection. This week the German solar power plants produced a world record 22 gigawatts of electricity per hour — literally half of the energy used through the key midday hours in the country.
That is the equivalent to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity without any radioactive waste left over. The Germans are getting rid of all nuclear plants after the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year. Instead, the entire country will be using greater renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and bio-mass.
This is not some tiny country with a mainly tourism economy but one of the greatest industrial nations on Earth.
[...]
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/26/us-clima te-germany-solar-idUSBRE84P0FI20120526
Get ready for the Fourth Reich, everyone....
...as well as against blog rules.
464 Articuno: Okay.
No chiding intended. It's just that we've already had eg catastropheadjuster become extremely frustrated and leave because s/he thought we were deliberately "ignoring" her/him.
The reality was that the high quality of his/her postings on various (mostly non-controversial) topics left little-to-nothing to add. Hence a lack of responses...
...other than PLUSes. And apparently, s/he didn't check back for them.
When I do my TCRs, should I include 6-hourly "best" track" coordinates, including latitude/longitude, minimum pressure, and intensity estimates?
A: Yes
B: No
What's that got to do with Solar Power? You're showing your prejudice!
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