Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.
Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)
Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:
1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.
2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.
3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.
4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.
Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Not mine -- Dr.JeffMasters: ...Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. -- 70% of 250 = 175 ; 175 plus 250 = 425
There is very little evidence proving that global climate change is man made. I have seen terabytes of data over climate change (my friend works at Johnson Space Center), and I only have found a very minute correlation (r=.05) between human activities and temperature variance.
Maybe..
If that little crack in the MW is indeed an eye forming it has the possibility of RI...and it's under an anticyclone in 5kts shear.
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Good news! NHC's Storm Surge Unit has joined Twitter. Stay on top of storm surge news and information @NHC_Surge.
There will be information and updates for emergency managers, the media and general public. For example, our first tweet was the peak measured surge during Tropical Storm Beryl.
Here is the link: http://twitter.com/#!/NHC_Surge/followers
04W is in amazing conditions for RI. O_o Seems possible we will get our first NHem category 4 out of this. It's moving out of these decent conditions quickly though.
I agree! Gimme a beer.
Td to typhoon in hours
That even just sounds like nonsense without having to look into it further. It's not like we're comparing two temperature records here looking for correlations or variances. That's not how you are going to show human activities' roles in climate. The proof is in the physics, not some guy staring down sets of data he gets from a friend. We know the physical properties of greenhouse gases, we know how they behave when their concentrations change, we know that the concentration is increasing rapidly in comparison to similar timescales in our reconstructions, we can see that the source of the greenhouse gases are due to human activities.
Because of the physics, not some correlation of data you got from a friend, we would be able to see the human impact on climate even if natural forces were enough to counter-act most/all of it and cause cooling.
What is this? The hunger games? Nah it's cane season
What about the strong storms in Alabama? Not really much happening there though...
Happy Hurricane Season! Let it be a "peaceful" one for residents of coastal areas.
What on radar suggested that?
May the odds be ever in your favour!
You may not have been on last night so you might not have seen it... Rotation was unreal, the velocities were very tight and strong.
The BEST analysis is one of many that came to very similar conclusions.
I can't imagine which navy other than one that exists solely within the imagination of the writer of the beforeitsnews.com article.
Those maps look like s/he's using a 300metre(1,000foot)* sea-level rise AND
a naive(r than "spherical cow") increase in the gravitational^equipotential in the NorthernHemisphere while ignoring the accompanying decrease in the SouthernHemisphere AND
a highly selective extra300metre isostatic rebound on Greenland and Antarctic continental masses as well as the AntarcticOcean seabed all the way up to the tip of SouthAmerica.
* Which is ~4 times as much as any rise that could be reasonably expected from a total meltdown... assuming that there's non-thermophilic multicellular life left on Earth.
^ ie Simplisticly, the (new) height of sea-level taking into account the (changing) gravitational effects of continental masses and (disappeared) ice-masses on seawater.
The data on the changing ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica from GRACE is a fantastic bonus of the project that returns a large and exciting public benefit. GRACE is providing more data to guide climate scientists and glaciologists, and additional hard evidence to bury the insincere deniers and their poor misled followers. Go GRACE!
Break out the Fresca's, popcorn, HeadOn, troll spray, iggy button, because
Naming list:
* Alberto (used)
* Beryl (used)
* Chris
* Debby
* Ernesto
* Florence
* Gordon
* Helene
* Issac
* Joyce
* Kirk
* Leslie
* Michael
* Nadine
* Oscar
* Patty
* Rafael
* Sandy
* Tony
* Valerie
* William.
The current total stands at 2-0-0.
Now
Yeah June 1st is so much less special this year because of the 2 pre-season storms...
The banding that it has developed is starting make it look like the classic RI setup. The storm starts spinning, the first thing to develop that looks like a strong hurricane is the banding, then the CDO develops and then an eye appears out of nowhere.
We'll see how long it can continue to show these signs though.
The OntarioSea would also connect with the HudsonBay, creating a new island* out of Quebec and areas northward and eastward.
* ie the areas at least 1,000feet above sea-level in the presentday.
No major hurricanes yet? What a bust season!
A 70-mph rare pre-season near hurricane hit the US? What a bust season!
Is that a pinhole from the RI? : )
An eye is trying to form, will be small but not that small...
It's on the northern edge of the convective mass.
Ik I was kidding haha
is that upper or lower level low?
No problem.
Alright.
Yeah. I think I'll release my updated forecast tomorrow.
Yes I do.
Alberto and Beryl were initialized as warm core.
No need to apologize. :)
I'm fine. Ready for the potential Severe Weather event tomorrow. You?
Of course, but it's a brand new MW image that I had to show anyways. :P
It looks more like a decaying trough to me.
Clearly you are unfamiliar with sarcasm
Once it does, RI usually is guaranteed (eyewall complete) unless it hits a wall of bad conditions. Will be a tiny eye though.
WP042012 - Tropical Depression FOUR
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
I think we can agree, this isn't a TD anymore. :P
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