Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 31, 2012

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The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.


Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card

Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)

Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card

Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:

1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.

2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.

3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.

4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.

Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting lightning75:


Thank you will try to


It also helps put up an avatar. Our regular trolls tend not to, so any avatar at all will help you appear non-troll.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
321.

Great minds.. they think alike ya know.

Haha.

The MJO should just be coming back around that time, and 500 mb. pressure anomaly maps show negative values across the Gulf of Mexico around that time as well. The bad thing is, once you have something in the Gulf of Mexico, it has to hit land.

If "Chris" developed in June, it would be the earliest formation date for the third named storm in the 21st century. Not sure whether or not that would be a record though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
Quoting dogsgomoo:
The maps at post 42 are often found on end times, conspiracy theory, earth changes websites and blogs. They are shown as proof that the Navy, Army, NWO, TPTB, etc know what is "about to happen" but won't tell us. I'm dubious to the origins of what are essentially fantasy maps.

This site is interesting and more realistic when it comes to visualizing average global sea level rise versus actual elevation. Mind you some places would see more and some would see a drop in sea levels. Even at 60m rise the flooding only reaches to Memphis.


Ah okay, I could tell it sure wasn't an accurate future forecast but I couldn't rule out something hundreds of thousands or millions of years ago so I'd wondered if it were that.
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Quoting islander101010:
poof!


Wrong side of the bed this mornin'?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
12Z GFS continues with the idea of a Gulf storm, albeit a little farther south this time. It shows typical monsoonal development, with a competing low in the East Pacific that is eventually absorbed into the low on the Atlantic side.



That would be among the earliest storm #3 in an Atlantic tropical season if I'm not mistaken.
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Quoting Patrap:

804
WUUS54 KLIX 312031
SVRLIX
LAC117-312100-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0112.120531T2031Z-120531T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLINTON...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FRANKLINTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3099 9015 3100 8990 3080 8989 3071 9020
3086 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 234DEG 17KT 3084 9017
BE CAREFUL OVER THERE pATRAP
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37044

804
WUUS54 KLIX 312031
SVRLIX
LAC117-312100-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0112.120531T2031Z-120531T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLINTON...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FRANKLINTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3099 9015 3100 8990 3080 8989 3071 9020
3086 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 234DEG 17KT 3084 9017
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326. StP13
Since records only go back to 1941, 71 years of records is a little on the thin side, in my opinion.

Enough to get a little attention for one well placed human life time? Reasonably, yes.

A statistically relevant sampling for the history of Greenland? Probably not.

An interesting read as part of a larger puzzle? Definitely.
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321.

Great minds.. they think alike ya know.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
One fascinating statistic: the most destructive tornado this May appears to be one Beryl spun off in North Carolina. That is, the most damaging twister during a month normally dominated by tornadoes was one caused by a tropical storm during a month that normally has none.

Very true... Though I believe if that tornado from last night had gone over a populated area it would have taken that award... Has that one been given a rating yet? Radar indicated it was probably at least EF 3.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7636
WP042012 - Tropical Depression INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
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Anyways, on a more tropical related note the GFS has been forecasting at the very end of its run that the next area to watch is the Caribbean/GOMEX. Although this is over 300 hours out and has less than a 0.01% chance of verifying exactly as predicted, we'll have to watch it as it is climatology favored. Remember how the GFS picked up on Beryl 300+ hours before hand but kept on moving the timeline back until it ended up on the 25th? Similar situation. Will watch closely as the Texas death ridge is no longer in place, so whatever forms down there probably won't be shoved into Mexico.
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12Z GFS continues with the idea of a Gulf storm, albeit a little farther south this time. It shows typical monsoonal development, with a competing low in the East Pacific that is eventually absorbed into the low on the Atlantic side.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
I would expect JTWC to initiate advisories on this soon

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7636
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Quieter Tornado Season Tied To Jet Stream

Tornado season this year started off with a bang %u2014 an above-average number of twisters churned across the United States in the early months of 2012 %u2014 but lately, the storms have been more subdued.

And this spring hasn't seen the terrible twisters that devastated parts of the country last year.

So what's behind the quieter spring? Thank the jet stream, weather experts say.
One fascinating factoid: the most destructive tornado this May appears to be one Beryl spun off in North Carolina. That is, the most damaging twister during a month normally dominated by tornadoes was one caused by a tropical storm during a month that normally has none.
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Quoting Patrap:
Have you kissed a Saudi Prince today? ?


Patrap how could you?

*snicker*
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Quoting islander101010:
poof!


???
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Quoting islander101010:
poof!

?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
It's been a while since we saw the NAO take this big of a dive:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7636
Have you kissed a Saudi Prince today? ?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'll believe it when I see it. I don't care if they're forecasting 100% chance of rain even.
poof!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Something interesting a few weeks back in my neighborhood during the evening. Was on my bike riding in subdivision which is concrete with houses, and there is a large 4 acre or so green space just by the entrance of my subdivision. It was hot as usual but as I rode towards the green space it was like a rush of cold air hitting me, it was amazing what the open space grass did to the air temperature. In fact I went back and forth over and over from inside the subdivision to the green space to feel the massive difference in air temps it was unbelievable. This is on a micro scale, just think of the massive scale of development of cities....


Concrete and development IS a major influence with the urban heat island affect going on. This, is partly why we are in a warming world.




I added a word to your almost correct statement. Yes, turning grasslands and forests into heat absorbing pavement and buildings is one of the factors warming our world.

Also agricultural practices which increase methane and nitrogen oxide emissions increase warming.

As do methane leaks from drilling and transportation/storage.

As do chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)emissions.

But fossil fuel produce CO2 is the big boy in the room. That's the one that we need to concentrate on the most.



Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting Patrap:
Dont like to see that Line "fingering forward".





It's moving around the lake:( dissipating every where
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It looks like the North Atlantic and EPAC will remain quiet in terms of tropical development at least for the next couple of weeks.



Link
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
The Whitewater-Baldy Fire in New Mexico--that state's largest ever--grew another 20,000 acres overnight; it's now consumed a bit over 190,000 acres (297 square miles). The blaze is currently just 5% contained (relative humidity: 5%).

Some possible good news for mid-Atlantic lovers of cool weather: it's looking more and more likely that, due to a negative NAO, parts of the Northeast will see very nice temperatures next week, with highs only in the 70s for a few weeks--that is, about 20-25 degrees cooler than the same week last year) The CPC is even picking up on it a bit; here's the 6-10 day forecast (and pay no attention to the 95-degree temps forecast for the Upper Mississippi Valley):

Hot
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Quieter Tornado Season Tied To Jet Stream

Tornado season this year started off with a bang — an above-average number of twisters churned across the United States in the early months of 2012 — but lately, the storms have been more subdued.

And this spring hasn't seen the terrible twisters that devastated parts of the country last year.

So what's behind the quieter spring? Thank the jet stream, weather experts say.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7636
304. Jax82
Apocalyptic rain storm over Jacksonville at the moment lol

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Quoting atl134:


I'm really confused. Submerged when? Utah is completely underwater but Salt Lake City is at 4200ft of elevation.
The maps at post 42 are often found on end times, conspiracy theory, earth changes websites and blogs. They are shown as proof that the Navy, Army, NWO, TPTB, WTFE know what is "about to happen" but won't tell us. I'm dubious to the origins of what are essentially fantasy maps.

This site is interesting and more realistic when it comes to visualizing average global sea level rise versus actual elevation. Mind you some places would see more and some would see a drop in sea levels. Even at 60m rise the flooding "only" reaches to Memphis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


The urban heat island effect and position of land-based thermometers has been looked into time and time again, and been shown to cause only a marginal affect on temperatures. In fact, analysis by NOAA shows that thermometer ranked as "poor" in independent analysis by skeptics were shown to bias results colder rather than warmer.

Even if the urban heat island effect were having a major influence on the warming trend, it is caused by human activities, and thus would be an anthropogenic forcing.


That why we need to just build some gigantic mirrors, put them in the Sahara, then BOOM. problem solves we are all millionaires.
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300. MTWX
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Why are you apologizing? did you break it? hahaha


No I didn't, but we had AC issues over the long weekend which stressed the equipment, so in turn, one of the power supplies failed.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Is this not in itself anthropogenic warming?


The urban heat island effect and position of land-based thermometers has been looked into time and time again, and been shown to cause only a marginal affect on temperatures. In fact, analysis by NOAA shows that thermometer ranked as "poor" in independent analysis by skeptics were shown to bias results colder rather than warmer.

Even if the urban heat island effect were having a major influence on the warming trend, it is caused by human activities, and thus would be an anthropogenic forcing.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
The rain event for Central and South Florida I believe is being under advertised somewhat, and it looks like the heaviest rainfall from this could be for all the area that didn't get much from Beryl, very good news!


PWAT's will increase to between 2.0 and 2.3 inches, this combined with the favorable quadrant of a jet streak for widespread lift and increasing instability as well as the approaching cold front are all great signs for significant rainfall and thunderstorms for Central and South Florida, especially the coastal areas.


I'll believe it when I see it. I don't care if they're forecasting 100% chance of rain even.
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Yep Jed if you put the RGB Satellite in motion you'll see the spin coming of Honduras is going to get close to Tampa, I think. But looking at radar today as in the past Tampa has one helluva shield up.
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Quoting MTWX:
Also just wanted to apologize to anyone trying to use the Columbus, MS NEXRAD. We will have it back operational as soon as we can!

Message Date: May 30 2012 22:15:10

To All Users: UPDATE --- The KGWX Radar power supply parts are on order so will
be down until at least Friday and perhaps as late as Monday. EC


Why are you apologizing? did you break it? hahaha
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34 OldLeatherneck: ...Dr. Masters mentioned that Greenland lost 250 Gigatonnes of ice. When you consider that each Gigatonnne is 2.2 Trillion gallons, thats a lot of water!!!!

A Gigatonne is 2.2trillion pounds of water. A gallon would contain ~8.33 pounds of water.
A tonne is mass-equivalent to 1cu.metre or 1000litres of water. There are ~0.264172gallons per litre.
So a tonne of water would be ~264gallons, and a Gigatonne would be ~264billion gallons

That 250Gigatonnes is derived from an accelerating trend averaged over 7years, starting with a ~75Gigatonne loss between 2003 and 2004.
Greenland's 2010to2011 ice loss was ~425Gigatonnes.
A Gigatonne of glacial ice contains a cubic kilometre of water.

Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Dont like to see that Line "fingering forward".



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Any significance to the ITCZ activity in the eastern half of the Atlantic? I think I see plenty of faint clouds near the westernmost one, indicating stable, descending air; but to me the zone does look rather active.

T.I.A.
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The rain event for Central and South Florida I believe is being under advertised somewhat, and it looks like the heaviest rainfall from this could be for all the area that didn't get much from Beryl, very good news!


PWAT's will increase to between 2.0 and 2.3 inches, this combined with the favorable quadrant of a jet streak for widespread lift and increasing instability as well as the approaching cold front are all great signs for significant rainfall and thunderstorms for Central and South Florida, especially the coastal areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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069
WUUS54 KLIX 312006
SVRLIX
MSC147-312030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0110.120531T2006Z-120531T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
306 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF SALEM...OR 14 MILES EAST OF MCCOMB...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TYLERTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3133 9007 3134 9004 3118 9002 3117 9000
3114 9000 3114 8994 3112 8993 3111 9026
3130 9026 3134 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 258DEG 22KT 3122 9020
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Something interesting a few weeks back in my neighborhood during the evening. Was on my bike riding in subdivision which is concrete with houses, and there is a large 4 acre or so green space just by the entrance of my subdivision. It was hot as usual but as I rode towards the green space it was like a rush of cold air hitting me, it was amazing what the open space grass did to the air temperature. In fact I went back and forth over and over from inside the subdivision to the green space to feel the massive difference in air temps it was unbelievable. This is on a micro scale, just think of the massive scale of development of cities....


Concrete and development IS a major influence with the urban heat island affect going on. This, is why we are in a warming world.




Is this not in itself anthropogenic warming?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 330
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 327...WW 328...WW 329...

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ORGANIZED BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MS AND SRN LA. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 8 KM IS
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.


...WEISS
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Should have known.Nevermind
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Quoting DocNDswamp:
Yep Pat (and weatherh98), knew you'd be keeping eye on 'em, very strong tstms along the line coming across SE LA... And yeah, well aware we've been under a severe tstms watch - this one on the tail end of more notable convection above, rather exploded on top of us, the lack of warning I mentioned couldn't have been possible... Wow, the VIL presentation indicated up near 55-60 kg with the hail...

In the break now...
Safe wishes back atcha!



Didnt know dis either till you mentioned it jus now.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Statement as of 3:03 PM CDT on May 31, 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330 remains in effect until 900 PM CDT
for the following locations


La
. Louisiana parishes included are

Jefferson Lafourche Orleans
Plaquemines St. Bernard St. Charles
St. John The Baptist St. Tammany Tangipahoa
Washington

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


BAD position to have the high in for hurricane season.



I hope it moves.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25421
Pat at the NHC radar I believe they just put up a tornado warning for just north of I 10
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283. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
3:00 AM JST June 1 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 13.0N 127.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
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24 HRS: 15.7N 125.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.