Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 31, 2012

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The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.


Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card

Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)

Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card

Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:

1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.

2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.

3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.

4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.

Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.

Jeff Masters

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Deleted: Wish I could figure out how I quoted my own post... while adding nothing else.
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Mawar looking more and more like a monsoonal monster. Due to this monsoonal type structure, development will be gradual and it will be difficult to rapidly deepen.



*All images are clickable and will open in a new window/tab*
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Quoting Neapolitan:
New Mexico's Whitewater-Baldy Fire--that state's largest ever, and by a large margin--continues to grow; it has now consumed more than 216,000 acres (337 square miles). The good news: containment is now at 10% (up from 5% yesterday, and 0% the day before.

I saw that from 35,000 feet on a trip last week. Massive cloud formation with turbulence so heavy the cabin staff had to buckle up. You could see the fire racing along a ridge. Amazing.
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Quoting SLU:
WOW .. CSU increased their numbers from 10 - 13 .. hmmm. It's now a different ball game altogether.


CSU is projecting 13 named stroms; actaully they take the two in May and forecast 11 during the normal hurricane season- up from their April forecast of 10 for the season.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
CSU is at 13 named, which is just one above my predictions.
Good morning Ted..I went with 14/8/3. Florida and the gulf coast beware..Would be not surprised to see 1 or 2 Caribbean Cruisers affect the Antilles. I believe Central America and Eastern Mexico catch a break this year. The gulf looks interesting.
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777. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Look here west of Tampa as it appears a line of strong to severe storms are forming about 100 miles west of Tampa and they are heading east.

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It is really nice to see this rain continuing here in FL. It looks as if we will finally have a "Real Rainy Season" this year.

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CSU is at 13 named, which is just one above my predictions.
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773. SLU
WOW .. CSU increased their numbers from 10 - 13 .. hmmm. It's now a different ball game altogether.
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Quoting yqt1001:
And the 4 analogs are....1953, 1968, 2001, and 2009.









Really confusing analogs, 2 above average seasons and 2 below average seasons. They average out to..guess what! An average season, and that's their reasoning for picking them.

Look at poor Florida. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
Quoting ncstorm:


if there is uncertainty with the phase of ENSO, how can they FORESEE below average activity?
Uncertainty, yes. But what is certain in weather forecasting?

There are trends, and patterns - the trick is finding those trends and patterns, then interpreting them.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Get a life.

Because someone brings up and idea that makes them in the employment of an industry?




Do you understand the difference between CO2 "sequestering" and "capturing"?

Do you understand that talking only about the amount of carbon sequestered above ground ignores the very large amount of carbon sequestered under ground? And do you understand that carbon sequestered under ground is more important than that sequestered above ground? Above ground sequestered carbon is largely going to reenter the carbon cycle via decay or fire.

Don't argue with wxmod. Its like trying to put out a fire with gasoline and lighter fluid.
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Not a good sign...

NOAA: Carbon dioxide levels reach milestone at Arctic sites

NOAA cooperative measurements in remote, northern sites hit greenhouse gas milestone in April

May 31, 2012

Contact: Katy Human, 303-497-4747 

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Barrow, Alaska, reached 400 parts per million (ppm) this spring, according to NOAA measurements, the first time a monthly average measurement for the greenhouse gas attained the 400 ppm mark in a remote location.

LINK


" Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas. NOAA calculates the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index every year, which takes into account the heating effects of other gases that are emitted from human activities (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, and chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons) When those gases are also considered, the global atmosphere reached a CO2 equivalent concentration of 400 ppm in 1985; and 450 ppm in 2003. Atmospheric CO2 levels are currently higher than they have been at any time during the last 800,000 years."


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Quoting RickWPB:
Lots of FL getting rain today... including the Tampa area.

Link

Except for Sarasota. Rain has set up both north and south of us. I hope it will eventually fill the gap and bring us much needed rain.
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And the 4 analogs are....1953, 1968, 2001, and 2009.









Really confusing analogs, 2 above average seasons and 2 below average seasons. They average out to..guess what! An average season, and that's their reasoning for picking them.
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Lots of FL getting rain today... including the Tampa area.

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2012

We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. We
have increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty
in both the phase of ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane
landfall.


if there is uncertainty with the phase of ENSO, how can they FORESEE below average activity?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2012

We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. We
have increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty
in both the phase of ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane
landfall.

CSU is giving Florida the highest probabilities for a hurricane and major hurricane landfall at 47% and 19%, respectively. Second is Texas with 30% and 11%, respectively. Louisiana and North Carolina follow right behind.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
The Klotzbach and Gray report!...thanks for that TA
That report helps me understand alot more.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6759
Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2012

We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. We
have increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty
in both the phase of ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane
landfall.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
Quoting Neapolitan:
New Mexico's Whitewater-Baldy Fire--that state's largest ever, and by a large margin--continues to grow; it has now consumed more than 216,000 acres (337 square miles). The good news: containment is now at 10% (up from 5% yesterday, and 0% the day before).

fire


Gila National Park is a rare and beautiful park...so sad
I was born in Albuquerque and have been there often.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6759
THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE....pouring rain by me for the last hour
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Everyone in the affected areas stay safe today..

NWS, Wilmington, NC

FOR TODAY...DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SHOWS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXTENT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL INCREASE
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE EVENT EVOLVES. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE WARNINGS ISSUED...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. SPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE SLIGHT
RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.


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New Mexico's Whitewater-Baldy Fire--that state's largest ever, and by a large margin--continues to grow; it has now consumed more than 216,000 acres (337 square miles). The good news: containment is now at 10% (up from 5% yesterday, and 0% the day before).

fire
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
2012 FSU COAPS Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast


Excerpt:


This year's forecast calls for a 70 percent probability of 10 to 16 named storms and 5 to 9 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (ACE; a measure of the strength and duration of storms) of 122. These numbers are based on 51 individual seasonal forecasts conducted since May 25, 2012 using sea surface temperatures predicted by NOAA.
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I like theirs much better, hopeful for rain.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It does sound that way from the HPC discussion. But I like Houston's better. And they don't seem to match.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY DRAPED BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
AND COAST WITH OUTFLOW OUT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE MOST PART EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF
DRIFTING OVER THE SW ZONES AND GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER N TEXAS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST GIVING THE AREA ONE DAY OF DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH BACK
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MOISTURE POISED OFFSHORE AND
THE LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE CARRYING 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND THE WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. AN UPPER LOW
EAST OF BAJA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST STALL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE THIS COMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND INCREASE AND
SPREAD FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RICH TROPICAL
TAP SETS UP COMING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF/CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER E TX TO NE MEXICO.

Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
Whats going on in near Mexico at the end of the period..also shows low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean..HPC Sea Level Pressures

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting fireflymom:
So that means dry weather for Texas again, sigh.


It does sound that way from the HPC discussion. But I like Houston's better. And they don't seem to match.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY DRAPED BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
AND COAST WITH OUTFLOW OUT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE MOST PART EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF
DRIFTING OVER THE SW ZONES AND GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER N TEXAS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST GIVING THE AREA ONE DAY OF DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH BACK
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MOISTURE POISED OFFSHORE AND
THE LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE CARRYING 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND THE WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. AN UPPER LOW
EAST OF BAJA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST STALL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE THIS COMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND INCREASE AND
SPREAD FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RICH TROPICAL
TAP SETS UP COMING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF/CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER E TX TO NE MEXICO.
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Quoting VR46L:
First time posting an image ..Hope it works

Lots of moisture coming across the Atlantic

Link
yes the link works ty
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting fireflymom:
So that means dry weather for Texas again, sigh.
yes it sure looks that way so far this morning
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
749. VR46L
First time posting a link ..Hope it works

Lots of moisture coming across the Atlantic

Link
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So that means dry weather for Texas again, sigh.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
hey GT..are you guys getting all this rain too? man its pouring here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
713 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-020200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.120601T2100Z-120602T0200Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
713 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...
INCLUDING RARITAN BAY AND DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE
TIME OF THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
OCCURS BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM. HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS...
ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE
HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO
5 FEET THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting fireflymom:
Ok please describe the results of this formation.




PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 05 2012 - 12Z FRI JUN 08 2012


USED THE 00Z/01 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED COMING OUT OF THE SHORT
RANGE...WITH ITS ALLY THE GEM GLOBAL. BOTH OF THESE MODELS
INDICATED LESS DISRUPTION TO THE BURGEONING BLOCK THAN THE GFS AND
GEFS MEAN...WHICH SEND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DAY 3
THAT DOES NOT ALLOW THE SMOOTH AMPLIFICATION TO BRIDGE THE SHORT
AND MEDIUM RANGES. THE BLOCK WILL FORCE THE POLAR FRONT
UNSEASONABLY FAR SOUTH FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE...WITH ONLY THE
STATES BORDERING WITH MEXICO REMAINING IN SUBTROPICAL AIR. THE
BLOCK WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS...WHERE THERE IS A DIRECT
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Looks like the NHC doesn't count the 1908 storm as a landfall... and now that i look at the track map, it really didn't. Looks like it passed ~10-20miles off shore like Alex in 2004-- which didn't count as a landfall


"THE ATLANTIC SEASON HAS ALREADY GOTTEN OFF TO A QUICK START...WITH
TROPICAL STORMS ALBERTO AND BERYL FORMING DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1908 THAT TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES
DEVELOPED BEFORE 1 JUNE. TROPICAL STORM BERYL...WHICH CAME ASHORE
NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH EARLY ON 28 MAY...IS THE STRONGEST PRE-JUNE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.Link
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From SPC D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN
THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.





So is this an Omega Block?
I thought that was a spring thing.

Yep, that's an Omega Block. Low in the west, low in the east, high pressure in the center.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From SPC D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN
THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.





So is this an Omega Block?
I thought that was a spring thing.


I have seen it during hurricane season..from wikipedia

Blocks in meteorology are large-scale patterns in the atmospheric pressure field that are nearly stationary, effectively "blocking" or redirecting migratory cyclones. They are also known as blocking highs or blocking anticyclones.[1] These blocks can remain in place for several days or even weeks, causing the areas affected by them to have the same kind of weather for an extended period of time
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....................gee its been soooo long since we had rain here like this,alot of street flooding but we sure need this rainfall around here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Ok please describe the results of this formation.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From SPC D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN
THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.





So is this an Omega Block?
I thought that was a spring thing.

Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
From SPC D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN
THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.





So is this an Omega Block?
I thought that was a spring thing.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Actually it's very likely that this could aid development in the caribbean in the next 10 days.

too right mate
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Quoting islander101010:
unlikely
Actually it's very likely that this could aid development in the caribbean in the next 10 days.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.