Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.
Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)
Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card
Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:
1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.
2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.
3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.
4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.
Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
Thank you for this blog
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms, then thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 95F with a heat index of 102F. Winds from the South at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Should fall under this blog
Why is it that meteorologists think that the average weather should be fairly static and without long term changes, especially considering that we have such a short amount of time to have actual data?
Geologic records show that sometimes these changes came on quickly (don't tell me that a family of mammoths eating green grass couldn't get out of the way of a glacier), sometimes these changes come on slowly. Either way, the Earth has shown the ability for extreme environmental changes. Oh wait, I forgot that dinosaur toots changed the climate to change. So is that dinosaur induced climate change?
* --Beryl headed out to sea
--Beryl dumping heavy rains
--Beryl makes landfall, weakens to a tropical depression
--Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast
--Subtropical Storm Beryl forms
--Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop
--NOAA predicts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season
--94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico
--Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening
--Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico
--Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico
--Alberto weakens, brings light rains to Georgia and South Carolina
--Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast
--Disturbance 93L off South Carolina coast could become a tropical storm
the Greenland icsheet will calve a great many icebergs this year, but with warm temperatures in the area we may lose a lot of ice in the arctic ocean. This will only accelerate change in the global weather patterns.
Thanks again for your insights into this issue.
I supose some of us have been waiting for this subject as a blog heading and this must be the tip of the melting iceberg, or ice sheet in this case!
The whole North Atlantic zone is now probably going into a climatic metamorphosis and I think that all previous reasonable estimates of ice melt and sea level rise are have been far too conservative.
Its not of course only the rising temperatures that melt the ice its also a matter of how much rain falls on the stuff!
Whats being taken away by gravitational water flow to the sea now is unlikely to be replaced by new snowfall for a very long time and probably not in any foreseeable future.
We are going to live in interesting times.
Then during hurricane season, we usually get that kinda streak during the more active parts of it.
I'm psyched! I'm skipping school and going chasing with my best friend tomorrow afternoon, our south limit is Fredericksburg and our north limit is the Mason/Dixon line. We will hopefully get some cool photos and I will try to upload them here. It will be my first time chasing, but I am a trained weather spotter and I have some good apps on my phone for tracking. My friend will be doing most of the driving, but I might do it for a while too. It's going to be a great day! And I am not scared at all, no, quite the opposite!
With your icecap so melty.....
Do you really think that tropical weather exists in some sort of bubble which leaves it unaffected by changes in the climate?
However, the current warming has nothing to do with either of those. There are no natural, geologic and/or solar processes that are responsible for the degree and rate of warming that we're seeing today. Hint: when a geologist tells you something happened "rapidly", we're still not usually talking about something observable on a human timescale.
How about you answer this question -
What is causing the current rapid climate change which you recognize is happening?
The 7 Thunders of the 6th Seal???!!!
Yes it will take a lot of rain or snow to make up for that much ice loss. Dr. Masters mentioned that Greenland lost 250 Gigatonnes of ice. When you consider that each Gigatonnne is 2.2 Trillion gallons, thats a lot of water!!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
925 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
MSC069-103-311600-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-120531T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NOXUBEE MS-KEMPER MS-
925 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN KEMPER AND SOUTHERN NOXUBEE COUNTIES...
AT 923 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM MACON TO DE KALB...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FALLING ALONG A
LINE FROM PRESTON TO SHUQUALAK TO PAULETTE.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ELECTRIC MILLS...PAULETTE AND COOKSVILLE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS. WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 3271 8838 3272 8891 3293 8885 3293 8881
3303 8881 3316 8877 3314 8832
$$
7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
LAZ027-030-041-TXZ180-201-216-259>262-311615-
HARDIN TX-NORTHERN JASPER TX-NORTHERN NEWTON TX-TYLER TX-
BEAUREGARD LA-VERNON LA-CALCASIEU LA-ORANGE TX-SOUTHERN JASPER TX-
SOUTHERN NEWTON TX-
1017 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER
AND ORANGE COUNTIES...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD...
VERNON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...
AT 1014 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NEWTON TO 6 MILES WEST OF LUMBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.
* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BURR FERRY AND SILSBEE BY 1025 AM...
LUMBERTON BY 1030 AM...
KIRBYVILLE BY 1035 AM...
NEWTON BY 1040 AM...
STRINGTOWN...EVADALE AND CALL BY 1045 AM...
WEISS BLUFF BY 1050 AM...
THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.
LAT...LON 3122 9298 3011 9360 3023 9440 3111 9380
$$
25
"2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000."
Even with normal summer temps this is a very significant development, as now instead of snow/ice reflecting sunlight, this darkening will cause heat absorption leading to increased melting, which in turn will lead to more surface darkening as new particle mater becomes exposed. Its a bit of a cross between a domino effect and a forgone conclusion from now on!
There will of course be the usual deniers and lets bring in some snow blowers or large white sheets a bit like the plan a while back to blow ice crystals in to Arctic air!
I supose as not many people are familiar with the Greenland ice cap and overflying planes usually have movies showing when in the area, "the cover up story," could be its not really going to happen?
+50 meters
-125 meters
So you think weather and climate are caused by magic?
faster and faster we go
It's been secretly said by 2016 we all go
Viewing: 1 - 51
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index