Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

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The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting klaatuborada:


No, we're not going. Beryl, which is supposed to go out to sea, is not. Well it is, but it isn't. I live on Cape Cod. Cape Cod has it's own little micro-climate. They can NEVER call the weather here, unless it's already happening. Beryl will hug the coast a bit, and be a little bit more Westward before rolling out into the Atlantic. Therefore the WeatherUnderground forecast of 20% chance of showers tonight will not come true.

It will be the NOAA forecast: Tonight: Showers, mainly before midnight. Areas of fog between 10pm and 11pm, then Areas of fog after 2am. Low around 58. West wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Severe fog for the next 3 to 4 days.

I love watching the weather on the Cape... It really is crazy... I remember a couple years ago a Nor'easter came up the coast and was supposed to go completely out to sea but the outer edge of its snow shield got stuck on the Cape and some places got over a foot of snow out there when the forecast called for a chance of flurries!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Looking at the rainfall estimates from Tropical Storm Beryl, the storm definitely did serve an invaluable purpose and help either significantly dent or possible even eliminate the drought conditions in some of the nation's worst drought stricken areas.
yes all the little gardens got some much needed rain be good now till end of june
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
The area in the NW Caribbean is being enhanced by an ULL. Link
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HRRR model is predicting a land hurricane across Oklahoma tonight.


Link
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223. wxmod
The North Atlantic Algae bloom, or whatever it is, is showing up just 400 miles from England at -9, 49.
It originated at -34, 47

see post 81 for a MODIS image
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Looking at the rainfall estimates from Tropical Storm Beryl, the storm definitely did serve an invaluable purpose and help either significantly dent or possible even eliminate the drought conditions in some of the nation's worst drought stricken areas.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New model will help NOAA forecasters study the eyewall of hurricanes this season

If we knew how to predict EWRC's intensity forecasts would be a million times better... Let's hope this model helps us out.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting bappit:

Please go to the drive in.


No, we're not going. Beryl, which is supposed to go out to sea, is not. Well it is, but it isn't. I live on Cape Cod. Cape Cod has it's own little micro-climate. They can NEVER call the weather here, unless it's already happening. Beryl will hug the coast a bit, and be a little bit more Westward before rolling out into the Atlantic. Therefore the WeatherUnderground forecast of 20% chance of showers tonight will not come true.

It will be the NOAA forecast: Tonight: Showers, mainly before midnight. Areas of fog between 10pm and 11pm, then Areas of fog after 2am. Low around 58. West wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Severe fog for the next 3 to 4 days.
Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 392
West Pacific:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLCC HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND A 300315Z
OSCAT PASS INDICATED ELONGATED TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM A WEAK,
BROAD CIRCULATION ON THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE LLCC ARE
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS IN THE SHARPEST REGION OF TURNING. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT IN A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE (30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
FYI, Beryl no longer impresses me, looked much better over land yesterday. Poof goodbye.
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Quoting hydrus:
My 2 cents on the 2004 Nino is that it was more of a " neutral Nino " it was officially in a neutral ENSO cycle until September 10, which means the hurricane season was more than half over when they called it an El-nino officially. Almost three fourths of the calender year went by in what was called a "neutral" phase. This weak El-Nino materializes and suddenly its an El-Nino year..1983 was a El-Nino year...First storm formed July 29, 1983
Last storm dissipated September 30, 1983
Strongest storm Alicia %u2013 963 mbar (hPa) (28.45 inHg), 115 mph (185 km/h)
Total depressions 7
Total storms 4
Hurricanes 3
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 1
Total fatalities 22
Total damage $2.6 billion (1983 USD)First storm The 2004 Hurricane Season...formed July 31, 2004
Last storm dissipated December 3, 2004
Strongest storm Ivan %u2013 910 mbar (hPa) (26.88 inHg), 165 mph (270 km/h)
Total depressions 16
Total storms 15
Hurricanes 9
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 6
Total fatalities 3000
Total damage $50 billion (2004 USD)....Excerpt from 1983 Hurricane Season..WIKI..The season, which began on June 1 and ended on November 30, was very inactive because of strong upper-level wind shear.[2] The wind shear was unusually strong throughout the Caribbean and open Atlantic, and disrupted convection in areas of disturbed weather so they could not develop. Over sixty African systems had formed and made it westward, but when they reached the Lesser Antilles, they were dissolved easily. The only area where the shear was minimal%u2014a region encompassing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of Florida%u2014was where the four named storms developed. This makes the 1983 season the least active season since the 1930 Atlantic hurricane season which had only two storms.[2] 1983 and the prior season became the first example of two consecutive years to have no storms form in the Caribbean Sea since 1871, when reliable record began.[2] 1983 also proved to be the first season since 1871 that a storm did not form south of 25%uFFFDN latitude.[2]

1983 was the first season for which the National Hurricane Center issued numeric landfall probabilities. Probabilities had been calculated for prior storms for use in the issuing of hurricane watches and warnings, but this was the first time the raw numeric probabilities were released to the public.[2] The probabilities issued were accurate during Alicia, indicating that Galveston and surrounding portions of the upper Texas coast were the most likely area to be struck.[4]

The season's activity was reflected with a low cumulative accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 17,[5] which is classified as "below normal".[6] ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. Subtropical cyclones are excluded from the total.[7]

2004 really went into 3rd gear between August and September. My first experience with an hurricane occurred in 2004(Ivan)...thanks for the info hydrus
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is beryl producing any waves along the outer banks?..hoping we get some nice waves in south jersey from it tomorrow
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys ASCAT has reveiled a surface low circulation in the GOH but it is weak and maybe open on its SE side
it is just E of half moon caye Belize


Yes and the moisture to the east of the Lesser Antilles
should move into the NW Caribbean by this weekend should
give it a nice boost in convection.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
02l exit stage right

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Good afternoon all
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Remember not to talk about trolls, we all got warned about that last night....


We were?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah, not looking good.


Already having to water like a maniac. Grass stressing and wilting. Ridiculous
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206. txjac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and tell him hail the size of softballs are coming and iam not joking


that would be bohoweatherman? Or something similar to that? He loves it when it rains as it seems to be particularly dry where he lives
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2518
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just ten months after last year's Los Conchas fire in New Mexico became that state's largest ever, the Whitewater Baldy fire leapt passed it to become the largest ever in that state. The WBC fire has now consumed more than 170,000 acres (265 square miles), and shows no signs of letting up due to a record drought and weather conditions conducive to fire growth.

fire!

More of the new normal. Thank you. You may now go about your day.


Just like the Death Ridge, days of popcorn showers are all but gone. Basically sit and burn up and dry out to the bone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
1969 was also a weak El Nino and had more storms than 2004. I'm sure those along the Mississippi Gulf Coast remember that year very well.

My 2 cents on the 2004 Nino is that it was more of a " neutral Nino " and it was officially in a neutral ENSO cycle until September 10, which means the hurricane season was more than half over when they called it an El-nino officially. Almost three fourths of the calender year went by in what was called a "neutral" phase. This weak El-Nino materializes and suddenly its an El-Nino year..1983 was a El-Nino year...First storm formed July 29, 1983
Last storm dissipated September 30, 1983
Strongest storm Alicia 963 mbar (hPa) (28.45 inHg), 115 mph (185 km/h)
Total depressions 7
Total storms 4
Hurricanes 3
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 1
Total fatalities 22
Total damage $2.6 billion (1983 USD)First storm The 2004 Hurricane Season...formed July 31, 2004
Last storm dissipated December 3, 2004
Strongest storm Ivan 910 mbar (hPa) (26.88 inHg), 165 mph (270 km/h)
Total depressions 16
Total storms 15
Hurricanes 9
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 6
Total fatalities 3000
Total damage $50 billion (2004)....
excerpt from 1983 Hurricane Season..WIKI..The season, which began on June 1 and ended on November 30, was very inactive because of strong upper-level wind shear.[2] The wind shear was unusually strong throughout the Caribbean and open Atlantic, and disrupted convection in areas of disturbed weather so they could not develop. Over sixty African systems had formed and made it westward, but when they reached the Lesser Antilles, they were dissolved easily. The only area where the shear was minimal region encompassing the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of Florida was where the four named storms developed. This makes the 1983 season the least active season since the 1930 Atlantic hurricane season which had only two storms.[2] 1983 and the prior season became the first example of two consecutive years to have no storms form in the Caribbean Sea since 1871, when reliable record began.[2] 1983 also proved to be the first season since 1871 that a storm did not form south of 25% latitude.

1983 was the first season for which the National Hurricane Center issued numeric landfall probabilities. Probabilities had been calculated for prior storms for use in the issuing of hurricane watches and warnings, but this was the first time the raw numeric probabilities were released to the public.[2] The probabilities issued were accurate during Alicia, indicating that Galveston and surrounding portions of the upper Texas coast were the most likely area to be struck.[4]

The season's activity was reflected with a low cumulative accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 17,[5] which is classified as "below normal".[6] ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. Subtropical cyclones are excluded from the total.[7]
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21193
Quoting RitaEvac:


We're going to full fledged drought next week in the plains. TX going back in the hole


Yeah, not looking good.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Need to notify what's his name that lives in Buda, I don't think he had a clue this was in the forecast
and tell him hail the size of softballs are coming and iam not joking
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Just ten months after last year's Las Conchas fire in New Mexico became that state's largest ever, the Whitewater Baldy fire leapt passed it to become the largest ever in that state. The WBC fire has now consumed more than 170,000 acres (265 square miles), and shows no signs of letting up due to a record drought and weather conditions conducive to fire growth. (Current humidity: 5%)

fire!

And allow me to remind you: it's only May. More of the new normal. Thank you. You may now go about your day.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


We're going to full fledged drought next week in the plains. TX going back in the hole


But then again, they don't have a clue. Might be wet with tropical conditions due to BOC system coming north into TX
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Remember not to talk about trolls, we all got warned about that last night....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


UGH!

FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO RAINS EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVER-SO-
BRIEF...COOL DOWN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HUMIDIFYING
SOUTHERLIES RETURN SUNDAY. ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEW WEEK
APPEARS LIMITED AS RIDGING ADVANCES INTO THE MID CONUS...AND
AMPLIFIES INTO AN OMEGA-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN.


We're going to full fledged drought next week in the plains. TX going back in the hole
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HRRR says Landcane tonight:

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Bye Beryl

AL, 02, 2012053018, , BEST, 0, 345N, 771W, 35, 997, LO, 34
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting 2012GREEN1216:
mothernature is random you never know what you gonna get from her but overall i THInk this season is gonna be boring


What a bland and senseless comment to make. You don't have to have 20 or 30 named storms in order for it to be busy. All it takes is just one devastating, costly storm (ie Andrew 1992, which was a very quiet season) to make a season memorable. Heck we haven't officially started the hurricane season and we have already made history with Alberto and especially Beryl.
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Quoting txjac:


I'm kind of finding it easier to read?
Does that make me odd too?? lol


No...was more a question out of curiousity more than anything txjac..LOL
I'm not the confrontational kind..just the courious kind :)
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Quoting hydrus:
Weird.


UGH!

FROPA WILL BRING AN END TO RAINS EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVER-SO-
BRIEF...COOL DOWN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HUMIDIFYING
SOUTHERLIES RETURN SUNDAY. ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEW WEEK
APPEARS LIMITED AS RIDGING ADVANCES INTO THE MID CONUS...AND
AMPLIFIES INTO AN OMEGA-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
188. txjac
Quoting pcola57:


Odd ASCAT Skye..?


I'm kind of finding it easier to read?
Does that make me odd too?? lol
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2518
hey guys ASCAT has reveiled a surface low circulation in the GOH but it is weak and maybe open on its SE side
it is just E of half moon caye Belize
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Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT~ I don't know what happened here. Looks like Yucatan, Cuba, land in general is cloud colored & the water is land colors with winds vectors.. Looks like something open on the east side Northwest of Roatan.



Odd ASCAT Skye..?
Just an open question..not challenging one i assure you.
Do they use overlays when issuing those?
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Well...it was nice knowing you, Beryl.

30/1745 UTC 33.9N 77.1W EXTRATROPICAL BERYL -- Atlantic


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
182. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT~ I don't know what happened here. Looks like Yucatan, Cuba, land in general is cloud colored & the water is land colors with winds vectors.. Looks like something open on the east side Northwest of Roatan.

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Quoting klaatuborada:
Here's my weather forecast. If we don't go, it won't rain, if we do go, it will rain.

Please go to the drive in.
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Quoting MTWX:

No red is "significant severe weather" ( same as the black hatch on SPC)

Here is SPC's depiction...



And then the fun begins here in the mid-atlantic at the end of the work week. Can it storm any other day than that? I am hosting a grad party that day!

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Quoting 2012GREEN1216:
lol i think gordon will FINALLY get retired it pissed me off to see that they havent retired it from 1994 1000+ fatalities are unexceptable now :/


I'm thinking Gordon will be the one to watch out for too. I think Isaac and Kirk may be slightly too late in the list this season. I think we'll get to them, but when the season's winding down. But that doesn't stop many late-season storms such as Paloma, Tomas, and Wilma, so it's all really a crapshoot to try and guess which name will go to the strongest/most destructive storm lol.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.