Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

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The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

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328. MAweatherboy1
10:00 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Already numerous storm producing baseball size hail and 70mph winds... Could be an ugly night.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
327. BaltimoreBrian
9:57 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
I thought you might be on the beach watching the storm Analyst13 :)
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8630
326. BaltimoreBrian
9:57 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Pressure falling on OBX SW of Hatteras. Near 997 mb.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8630
325. RitaEvac
9:55 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Hello all you Weather Maniacs, My Name is Dennis and Live southeast of Buda about 15 miles from Austin, Have a great day, weathermen do not have much rain for here computer models showing less than .10 here but it should drop in 80s and there could be some severe storms? We shall see, have a great day everyone.


You got super storms coming for ya Dennis, keep an eye to the sky tonight, and tomm, as you already think nothing is coming, is when it is coming.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
324. susieq110
9:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
The Daily Wind-Up New Discussion Schedule.
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/WordPress
Link
Member Since: June 6, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 94
323. PlazaRed
9:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and here are the dates of the formations of the "C" storms since 2000 in order from 2011 and back in time.

July 20, August 2, August 16, July 18, July 30, July 31, July 3, August 9, July 8, August 5, August 14, August 17

So the "C" storm has got about 5 weeks to nip in and beat the 21st century record for earliest "C" storm.
Its probably got a better than 90% chance of doing that.
Then? What about the "D" storm?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
322. nigel20
9:52 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and here are the dates of the formations of the "C" storms since 2000 in order from 2011 and back in time.

July 20, August 2, August 16, July 18, July 30, July 31, July 3, August 9, July 8, August 5, August 14, August 17

Between mid July and mid August, so there is a high possibility that we'll see the C-storm before this time interval
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8136
321. washingtonian115
9:50 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


By far the most interesting pre-season storm I have ever tracked. I still keep on forgetting it's not hurricane season, which is incredible given the activity we've already had.
Oh?.It's not?.Damn well nature sure didn't look at the calender this year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
320. nigel20
9:49 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
4 Fatalities from Beryl, and 1 still missing out in the ocean... Beryl was one nice sucker punch to the Southeast, but the SE took it like a man, so not too bad of a storm overall. My heart goes out to those families who lost loved ones or loved possessions to Beryl.

Condolences to the family members of the victims
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8136
319. OrchidGrower
9:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Re #314 - I hear ya, Pcola! Still going an uncomfortable number of days between rainshowers here in Cape Coral. The lysidice trees I planted over a year ago haven't yet made it past the "hanging on for dear life" stage, the bananas all have brown edges on all the leaves, and the avocado is still dropping fruit because it doesn't have enough moisture to work with.

I've been in SW Florida for 3 years and I'm still hoping to see what exists in the met. annals as "a normal rainy season." No luck so far....
Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
318. bohonkweatherman
9:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and tell him hail the size of softballs are coming and iam not joking
Hello all you Weather Maniacs, My Name is Dennis and Live southeast of Buda about 15 miles from Austin, Have a great day, weathermen do not have much rain for here computer models showing less than .10 here but it should drop in 80s and there could be some severe storms? We shall see, have a great day everyone.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
317. nigel20
9:46 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


With ridge setup storms would be forced into central Gulf and go anywhere from there

Agreed!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8136
316. allancalderini
9:44 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
I think the Atlantic give the 2 storms we have as a present to Bill Read before he leave as a director of the NHC.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
315. NJcat3cane
9:42 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
anyone think Atlantic City NJ will get some nice waves from beryl or is she dont kicking up surf after being on land for so long?
Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
314. pcola57
9:40 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:



Pretty much all of Florida is getting out of the drought chunk by chunk, accept for the Tampa Bay area, but things will balance out and we will catch up eventually. All the models were showing a dry upper ridge taking control for a while, and they have back away from that recently, hopefully it will stay that way.


"It's not just in the Tampa area alone"..A small meek voice is heard from the man standing and waving in his withered vegetable patch...(ie: Me)..LOL :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
313. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:38 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is how activity this year compares to previous ones....as of May 30.

2012: Alberto, Beryl
2011: N/A
2010: N/A
2009: One
2008: Arthur
2007: Andrea
2006: N/A
2005: N/A
2004: N/A
2003: Ana
2002: N/A
2001: N/A
2000: N/A

...and here are the dates of the formations of the "C" storms since 2000 in order from 2011 and back in time.

July 20, August 2, August 16, July 18, July 30, July 31, July 3, August 9, July 8, August 5, August 14, August 17
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
312. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:33 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
This is how activity this year compares to previous ones....as of May 30.

2012: Alberto, Beryl
2011: N/A
2010: N/A
2009: One
2008: Arthur
2007: Andrea
2006: N/A
2005: N/A
2004: N/A
2003: Ana
2002: N/A
2001: N/A
2000: N/A
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
311. CybrTeddy
9:28 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
R.I.P Beryl.You were a nice storm to track.


By far the most interesting pre-season storm I have ever tracked. I still keep on forgetting it's not hurricane season, which is incredible given the activity we've already had.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24166
310. HurricaneDean07
9:23 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
4 Fatalities from Beryl, and 1 still missing out in the ocean... Beryl was one nice sucker punch to the Southeast, but the SE took it like a man, so not too bad of a storm overall. My heart goes out to those families who lost loved ones or loved possessions to Beryl.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
309. Walshy
9:15 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
CARTERET COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA: Tornado With Winds Of 105-125 MPH Damaged 57 Homes, Destroys Five Homes.

The National Weather Service confirms that a tornado from Tropical Depression Beryl caused the damage near Peletier.






Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
308. Barefootontherocks
9:12 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting Walshy:
HRRR model is predicting a land hurricane across Oklahoma tonight.


Link
If you actually run the loop, you can see that is severe weather breaking in KS and moving SE across Oklahoma. Severe today may evolve that way to some extent, but there may also be storms moving off the dryline in N TX and W OK. Plus lots of boundaries from last night and morning convection involved. We'll know what's up in a few hours. Already a tor watch for TX panhandle and a severe t-storm watch over much of KS.

The 3 pm SPC convective outlook update removes the 10% tornado area from the moderate risk area. Most of OK remains in a 5% tor risk. If yesterday eve and night's prelim is an indication, more big hail and severe wind including >65 mph gusts, along with the tor chances.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18714
307. washingtonian115
9:10 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
R.I.P Beryl.You were a nice storm to track.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
306. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:10 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
So does that increase the chances of development even if we are in the downward phase of the MJO?

No. Shear is below average, but it is still not conducive for any sort of development.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:09 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54339
304. GTcooliebai
9:05 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, they had 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes though. :P

Look at Gulf shear:

So does that increase the chances of development even if we are in the downward phase of the MJO?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
303. Hurricanes305
9:02 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, they had 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes though. :P

Look at Gulf shear:



Interesting why would shear be decreasing so early in the season it seems the season just
keep getting interesting.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
302. GTcooliebai
9:02 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


Year of the Gulf?
That would mean gas price would spike for sure.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
301. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:01 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
The final track for TS Beryl.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, they had 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes though. :P

Look at Gulf shear:



Year of the Gulf?
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They have? Most agencies are still calling for 6 hurricanes and 3 hurricanes.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NAM40 has a bullseye of rain over the Tampa Bay area in 66 hrs.



I have a feeling that most of the tropical development will develop in the carribean with the Atlantic High force tropical systems into the caribb. and aim them at the US. But that just a theory.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I thought it was 3 canes and 1 major at one time from CSU anyway

No, they had 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes though. :P

Look at Gulf shear:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They have? Most agencies are still calling for 6 hurricanes and 3 hurricanes.


I thought it was 3 canes and 1 major at one time from CSU anyway
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NAM40 has a bullseye of rain over the Tampa Bay area in 66 hrs.



Someone might get their wish (?)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

This could be a dangerous set up for the Caribbean and the US...BBL


With ridge setup storms would be forced into central Gulf and go anywhere from there
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Shear has been running below Climo in the ATL as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It's been a long time since I've seen it like that. The return of moisture and instability this year is why I thought the Hurricane/Major numbers were low in early forecasts. But, I see most have upped their numbers this go round.

They have? Most agencies are still calling for 6 hurricanes and 3 hurricanes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Most of the moisture is in the caribbean we could see Chris sooner than later. By the way This pattern looks just like 2004.

This could be a dangerous set up for the Caribbean and the US...BBL
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8136
NAM40 has a bullseye of rain over the Tampa Bay area in 66 hrs.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
My and TheOnlyBravesFan's weather club at NWS Peachtree city:


I am on the back row, 3rd from the left in the dark blue polo shirt and TOFB is 2 to my right in the black t-shirt.
We are standing in front of their severe weather operations desks with one of Brian Lynn, a forecaster.

I got to play with AWIPS for a few minuts, but they wouldnt let me near WARN-GEN :)

They are still concerned about the potential for severe weather thursday night and friday across N GA but wouldnt say much more.


Mr. Lynn also said they do have a few forecasters who, like me, wish for severe weather to come as close to their area as possible.

And the 12Z ECMWF trended stronger and more southerly with the trough, which makes me happy.
Hopefully it can do it again next run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist given we're in the downward phase of the MJO.



Most of the moisture is in the caribbean we could see Chris sooner than later. By the way This pattern looks just like 2004.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist given we're in the downward phase of the MJO.



It's been a long time since I've seen it like that. The return of moisture and instability this year is why I thought the Hurricane/Major numbers were low in early forecasts. But, I see most have upped their numbers this go round.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RIP Beryl.

Anyways, the 12z ECMWF continues to hint that a trough will be draped over the SE United States that 'could' cause some mischief. It begins to develop a low but sends it into the coast before anything really happens with it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24166


Renegade Cartel cells
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Pirate999:


96 in Houston with a heat index of 105... whew is right!


Things are about normal for this time of year at Hobby, actually:


IAH has some more aberrant temperatures though:



I would place this on how IAH is further north and experiences somewhat less humidity thus its temperature is not as readily moderated by the Gulf moisture we get around here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bye bye Beryl :(

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

...BERYL IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 76.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

MAZ020>024-RIZ006>008-312030-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
424 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT FOR FOG ALONG THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINE WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY MORNING FOR FOG ALONG THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHORELINE WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
Next best chance of Florida rain is Friday, mainly for Central and South Florida, a deep mass of moisture will advect out of the Caribbean and interact with a jet streak from a cold front, strong thunderstorms and heavy rain possible. Assuming the models stick with that trend, Friday should be a pretty good shot at rain.


Of course, I won't be too hyped about anything till their are actually thunderstorms on my doorstep, after all, everything that has looked promising has mostly found a way to avoid this area lately, at some point it has got to end though.
Hey there thats the way its been in z-hills since last october. Yesterday was the most rain i've had 1.80 since last october.So yes at some point it will rain in Tampa.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The whole Atlantic is extremely moist ...


as it's water!

Sorry, resistance was futile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
280. txjac
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
My and TheOnlyBravesFan's weather club at NWS Peachtree city:


I am on the back row, 3rd from the left in the dark blue polo shirt and TOFB is 2 to my right in the black t-shirt.
We are standing in front of their severe weather operations desks with one of Brian Lynn, a forecaster.


Awesome, nice club to have. Thanks for sharing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
Next best chance of Florida rain is Friday, mainly for Central and South Florida, a deep mass of moisture will advect out of the Caribbean and interact with a jet streak from a cold front, strong thunderstorms and heavy rain possible. Assuming the models stick with that trend, Friday should be a pretty good shot at rain.


Of course, I won't be too hyped about anything till their are actually thunderstorms on my doorstep, after all, everything that has looked promising has mostly found a way to avoid this area lately, at some point it has got to end though.
I'm leaning towards Fri. Night into Sat. Morning for our best chance of rain. One thing that would be good is the front stalls offshore and doesn't actually clear the area.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
My and TheOnlyBravesFan's weather club at NWS Peachtree city:


I am on the back row, 3rd from the left in the dark blue polo shirt and TOFB is 2 to my right in the black t-shirt.
We are standing in front of their severe weather operations desks with one of Brian Lynn, a forecaster.

I got to play with AWIPS for a few minuts, but they wouldnt let me near WARN-GEN :)

They are still concerned about the potential for severe weather thursday night and friday across N GA but wouldnt say much more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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