Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

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The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

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478. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What happened to that Caribbean convection that was being pumped by some as a storm to be? Have the models dropped it?


It was trying to close off as seen on ASCAT earlier today but then moved over land.

Models have pretty much dropped it other than sending moisture from it over Cuba & into SFL.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37326
Looks like some intense straight line winds are setting up:

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Quoting Methurricanes:
Is that around Wilmington?

Just north of, yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
475. txjac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keep or anyone ...what causes the one big blog to break in to two and it looks like it goes two differnt directions?

The one that is currently around San Angelo
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2454
474. txjac
Quoting hydrus:
I will show you Tj...This is a sequence from now, and in 24 hour increments out to 84 hours. The deep trough that will rapidly move across the U.S. the next 3 days is the main player..


Thanks hydrus ...so the trough will push it down south?
I think that I get what you are saying/showing me and I totally appreciate the time that you took to show me what will be coming up. I still havent gotten the total hang of what to look at to see what is coming at me in the future..

Thanks again
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2454
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know about the outer banks, but here in Pender County its perfectly clear.
Is that around Wilmington?
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Quoting Methurricanes:
How are the conditions on the Outer Banks of NC?

I don't know about the outer banks, but here in Pender County its perfectly clear.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31425
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
How are the conditions on the Outer Banks of NC?
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Quoting txjac:


Can someone help me out please? What, weather wise will move that dry air out of th gulf? What will make it move?
I will show you Tj...This is a sequence from now, and in 24 hour increments out to 84 hours. The deep trough that will rapidly move across the U.S. the next 3 days is the main player..I should have done this first, but anyway...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 324...

VALID 310037Z - 310230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 324 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ONE ISOLATED SUPERCELL PRODUCING A TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL
NEAR CONCHO CO TEXAS WILL AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA WHILE
STORMS MOVING SEWD INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WW WILL ALSO POSE A
TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER CONCHO COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW
324. THIS STORM HAS SHOWN CYCLIC CHARACTERISTICS WITH PERIODIC BRIEF
WEAKENING AND RESTRENGTHENING AS THE MESOCYCLONE REORGANIZES.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED WITH THIS STORM.
THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TORNADO
PRODUCTION FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER AS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
NEAR 100-150 M2/S2 REMAIN IN THE VICINITY PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS DO WEAKEN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA AND THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON TORNADO POTENTIAL AS
THE STORM TRACKS SEWD. ASIDE FROM TORNADO POTENTIAL...THIS STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT AN ONGOING ORGANIZED
STRUCTURE. 00Z IR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE
SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY COLD.

ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...STORMS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LUB AND OUN FORECAST AREAS WILL SOON MOVE
INTO WW 324. THESE STORMS ALSO HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF THESE THREATS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..LEITMAN.. 05/31/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33440070 33429864 30259806 30250006 33440070
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Quoting txjac:


Can someone help me out please? What, weather wise will move that dry air out of th gulf? What will make it move?
a monster
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
No more Beryl?! I will call it Beryl till they pry the tracking chart from my cold dead hand!

Sparta!!!
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this time tomorrow night we will be 4 and a half hours away from the first TWO at 2 am jun 1 to init the 2012 Hurricane Season
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
464. txjac
Quoting hydrus:
It has quieted down a lot, but all that moisture is forecast to move north with time.


Can someone help me out please? What, weather wise will move that dry air out of th gulf? What will make it move?
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2454
Quoting HurrikanEB:
First time the NHC hasn't had to issue any advisories in 16 days... pretty impressive for May.
enjoy the break i know i am on average we can expect to see at least 1 system dev or try to before end of jun
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What happened to that Caribbean convection that was being pumped by some as a storm to be? Have the models dropped it?
It has quieted down a lot, but all that moisture is forecast to move north with time.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What happened to that Caribbean convection that was being pumped by some as a storm to be? Have the models dropped it?
It went to hell why?
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First time the NHC hasn't had to issue any advisories in 16 days... pretty impressive for May.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
No Beryl? No AOI?
.
Time to cue up old cyclones of the past that are no longer with us.
.
Agita....sis-boom-bah.
yeah pre season warm up is almost up now official season long haul begins
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What happened to that Caribbean convection that was being pumped by some as a storm to be? Have the models dropped it?


HI Cosmic, if convection builds again and can maintain itself through Saturday we might have something to watch, if not your guess is as good as mine. Anyway I think the C storm might yet be the earliest recorded in any Season!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is no more beryl it has done its final roll
No Beryl? No AOI?
.
Time to cue up old cyclones of the past that are no longer with us.
.
Agita....sis-boom-bah.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Ahhhh!
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Quoting dogsgomoo:
Beryl is still a fascinating feature. Stay safe and stay dry.
there is no more beryl it has done its final roll
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting kristenross09:

I live On Cape Hatteras and we are getting a lot of tide and flooding.
Beryl is still a fascinating feature. Stay safe and stay dry.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting hydrus:
This really is unusual. I was trying to remember the last time I saw this type of pattern in late May and early June. I think early 90,s, but me not sure yet..
its the icelandic low she be running lower down over the atlantic
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
What happened to that Caribbean convection that was being pumped by some as a storm to be? Have the models dropped it?
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No longer tornado warned:



The same cannot be said of this one:

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449. txjac
I am so ready for the blob in San Angelo to make it to west side of Houston ...will be so nice to have some showers

Already walked the dog so bring it on!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2454
The tornado threat for the evening is mostly diminished at this point as it is becoming more of a hail and damaging wind event... One supercell in central TX remains tornado warned... It has a history of producing tornadoes and currently has a rotating wall cloud reported with it. The two supercells in north TX are no longer tornado warned but both continue to be powerful storms which still contain weak roation. And the storm near Dodge City is no longer tornado warned as it has become more of a damaging wind threat with hurricane force winds likely. Active evening for sure.

I'm interested in what the rating will be on that tornado from earlier... I'd guess probably EF3 or 4
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and after all this then a quasi stationary omega block type setup will establish its self over plains south and east eventually
This really is unusual. I was trying to remember the last time I saw this type of pattern in late May and early June. I think early 90,s, but me not sure yet..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah, but in my area. Maybe I'll get to chase!
Hell no!.No more thunderstorms for a while :(.Just nice rain storms will do to help with our drought.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
3 days rain just what my trees grass and flowers need
It looks like you guys hit a rough patch starting on June 6, and ending on the 11...I am sure they will revamp the long range as always, but it does look interesting. Look at your region on the GFS in 172 hours..lol..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489
Some reports on the storm S of Childress... "wind" reports, and this was early.
2259 90 PADUCAH COTTLE TX 3401 10030
ESTIMATED 80-90 MPH WINDS IN PADUCAH. POWER IS OUT AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. (LUB)

2259 UNK PADUCAH COTTLE TX 3401 10030 REPORTS OF FULL TREES UPROOTED ... SHEET METAL FLYING THROUGH AIR ... POSSIBLE COMBINATION STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND GUSTNADO (LUB)

Also the tornado near Point Rock and other tor reports...

2328 10 NW TRUSCOTT FOARD TX 3385 9992
STORM CHASER REPORTED A LARGE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADO. LOCATION IS ESTIMATED. (OUN)

2338 6 NE PAINT ROCK RUNNELS TX 3158 9986
BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE RUNNELS AND CONCHO COUNTY LINE APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES EAST OF US 83. (SJT)

2347 5 ENE PAINT ROCK CONCHO TX 3154 9984
RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO REPORTED APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES ENE OF PAINT ROCK ON RURAL ROAD 1929 (SJT)

Paducah again.
0018 8 WSW PADUCAH COTTLE TX 3397 10043
BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPED AND DISSIPATED JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 62 (LUB)

Cheerios... and banana.
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Quoting hydrus:
Well here is one reason. Anytime there is a negative NAO, there is usually a decent trough over the eastern half of the U.S. This next system is like something one might expect during early spring, not 3 weeks from the summer.
and after all this then a quasi stationary omega block type setup will establish its self over plains south and east eventually
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting klaatuborada:
Ok, this is what gets me going.

Weather Underground weather forecast for my area, 50% chance of rain today, 20% chance of rain tonight.

NOAA weather forecast for my area, 20% chance of rain today increasing to 80% later this afternoon and tonight.

All this technology, all this knowledge and education and this is what I get.

I was hoping to go to the Drive-In tonight. Here's my weather forecast. If we don't go, it won't rain, if we do go, it will rain.


Ok, earlier around 6pm EST that was my post. Now, at 8:50PM EST NOAA is saying this:

Tonight: A chance of showers. Areas of fog after 3am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 60. West wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible

and here at WU it's saying this:

Overcast with rain showers, then a chance of rain after midnight. Fog overnight. Low of 59F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

So, total flip on both! LOL! I want this job! I don't have to be right, and I can change my forecast 180 degrees and get away with it!

Ok, NOAA from 80% to 20%

WU from 20% to 80%io

and the winner is? Neither. Rain is at 0%, storms are drying up before they get here, which is pretty typical. Our Cape Cod microclimate kicking the rain away. We should have gone to the Drive-In. They are still calling for fog, but that's going to be after midnight. Dang it. I should have never checked the weather and just gone and had fun.
Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 392
Quoting Hurricanes305:


What is causing this pattern or is this the normal setup this type of year.
wacky 2012 lets get ready to get wacky
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Definitely getting hairy out there for some people.


Maybe they're overdone but there are radar indicated winds of 100mph with that storm NE of Dodge City.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Quoting 1900hurricane:
From space:

Man that looks nasty.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489
Quoting dogsgomoo:


Could be. I think this is a web cam from Nags Head. Or Frisco?

I live On Cape Hatteras and we are getting a lot of tide and flooding.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


What is causing this pattern or is this the normal setup this type of year.
Well here is one reason. Anytime there is a negative NAO, there is usually a decent trough over the eastern half of the U.S. This next system is like something one might expect during early spring, not 3 weeks from the summer.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20489
From space:

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Quoting hydrus:
SSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 30 201224 hours out..48 hours out...72...
3 days rain just what my trees grass and flowers need
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Monster storm NE of Dodge City... It is tornado warned but the bigger threat seems to be damaging non tornadic winds up to 90mph!

Definitely getting hairy out there for some people.

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Monster storm NE of Dodge City... It is tornado warned but the bigger threat seems to be damaging non tornadic winds up to 90mph!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, NWS in Ruskin notes that the models recently are completely backing off on the deep upper ridging over Florida, and thus scattered sea breeze storms may be added back to the forecast if future model runs continue that way.


True...But they have not backed away from sending a late season cold front to clear us out by Sunday. In fact, they send another back-door front through us next Thursday/Friday(quite bizarre for early June).
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Wow, 30% on the 3 day outlook. Don't see that a lot around here.

looks like here in S. PA i might get some action :D
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Miami NWS Discussion

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS FROM EACH RUN. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ELEVATED. MODEL PWAT VALUES REFLECT THIS PATTERN
AND INDICATE VALUES AROUND AND EVEN ABOVE THE TWO INCH MARK. AT THIS
TIME...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO 2 TO 4
INCHES SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE
EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME A POSSIBILITY
WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED. INTERESTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES THROUGH THIS TIME.
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

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Bunch of nasties out there right now.

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Quoting BDAwx:
Post tropical storm Beryl producing 39kt sustained winds with 997mb pressure and almost 2.5ft storm surge at Hatteras, NC?



Could be. I think this is a web cam from Nags Head. Or Frisco?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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