Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

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The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ncstorm:
we are supposed to get up to the 90's today but I dont even care..I can actually see the sun!! NWS, Wilmington, NC concerning the severe weather threat tomorrow

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 5H TROUGH
IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH FRI
MORNING. FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHILE THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHES CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GET THE JOB DONE.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOW SRH IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND/HAIL EVENT IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE
AROUND...OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE...CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.
yes Beryl is out to sea and the suns out here too, rain tomorrow but a nice day today for us here
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NICE gravity wave pushing off the TX and LA coast on visible loop
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I don't know why Upper TX coast is in the clear, but we should be in the yellow, friggin dried up out here, grass is brown along the roads where the heat is, tells me it's ABNORMALLY DRY.

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we are supposed to get up to the 90's today but I dont even care..I can actually see the sun!! NWS, Wilmington, NC concerning the severe weather threat tomorrow

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 5H TROUGH
IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH FRI
MORNING. FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHILE THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHES CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GET THE JOB DONE.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOW SRH IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND/HAIL EVENT IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE
AROUND...OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE...CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Really pretty map of 56 years worth of Tornado activity created by John Nelson using data.gov.

Even though he used a straight-line start point to end point representation and not a 'true path' representation you can clearly see the intensity of tornadoes clustered in Dixie Alley.

Also... damn, that's a lot of lines.
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Quoting Jax82:
Even with all of Beryl's fury, the drought goes on.



Put a nice dent it in though, and also..

Tampa shields in full effect, now we have a map that shows the radius! Seriously, what's up with that? Tampa received hardly any rain. Where's Jedkins? I need someone to rant with about this.
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We're erasing our drought here in D.C.Sorry Tampa.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Front in Texas is ahead of schedule, suppose to move thru there early to mid afternoon at latest, may or may not rain? Mid to upper 90s here over the weekend so this will be a shortlived break.


You might be getting rocked later today, with heating and storms moving your way.
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570. MahFL
Quoting Jax82:
Even with all of Beryl's fury, the drought goes on.



I got 4.7 inches in Orange Park. I think for it to have been a drought buster here we'd have needed 12 or more inches. But 4.7 is not to be sneezed at.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Dammit my son is having a school picnic tomorrow.I've should've known with this humid air mass in place all week that something bad was waiting for us.


The system is predicted to exit the Appalachians by late morning or early afternoon, so it will be a couple of hours after that before you should get it, with any luck. I hope his picnic is over before the weather ramps up.

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Quoting DavidHOUTX:



Looks like the southern part of that line will go just East of Houston. We should have another squall line develop later today and push through all of SE Texas.


It's gonna back-build to the SW, check radar and you'll see it already doing it
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Front in Texas is ahead of schedule, suppose to move thru there early to mid afternoon at latest, may or may not rain? Mid to upper 90s here over the weekend so this will be a shortlived break.
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Quoting RitaEvac:



Looks like the southern part of that line will go just East of Houston. We should have another squall line develop later today and push through all of SE Texas.
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Quoting goosegirl1:


FWIW, the weather channel has a Torcon of 4 for the DC area tomorrow. Although that index is just a simplified way of telling the public the same info they can find on noaa.gov, by looking at the probabilities of severe weather.
Dammit my son is having a school picnic tomorrow.I've should've known with this humid air mass in place all week that something bad was waiting for us.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
My weather forecaster said nothing about this.All he said was "it's quite out there now".Oh no!.We need the rain but not the server weather that comes with it.


FWIW, the weather channel has a Torcon of 4 for the DC area tomorrow. Although that index is just a simplified way of telling the public the same info they can find on noaa.gov, by looking at the probabilities of severe weather.
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Quoting goosegirl1:
Heads up tomorrow, Washintonian and wxgeek- when I finish with all the storms, I will send them off in your direction :) As a proud member of the hill folk culture, may I say with fanfare and flourish... "it's a-comin!"

Link
My weather forecaster said nothing about this.All he said was "it's quite out there now".Oh no!.We need the rain but not the server weather that comes with it.
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Heads up tomorrow, Washintonian and wxgeek- when I finish with all the storms, I will send them off in your direction :) As a proud member of the hill folk culture, may I say with fanfare and flourish... "it's a-comin!"

Link
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Quoting Jax82:
Even with all of Beryl's fury, the drought goes on.



it barely rained in central GA, so they still have a drought.
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Quoting severstorm:
Morning All, Looks like some good rains are coming to the Tampa bay area on friday.


Chance of rain is 70%. I'll believe it when it hits me on top of the head. Something just tells me that south of us is going to get hit and we'll miss out.
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557. Jax82
Even with all of Beryl's fury, the drought goes on.

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Helllllllo?.Anybody out there?

Post 557 can you post one for the mid-atlantic?
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Cap to be destroyed

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Quoting beeleeva:
A Gulf system?? Well,,we need some rain.


Just like the black guy named Serrano used to say in the movie "Major League"

Bring that $!#T to me man!
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Quoting beeleeva:
A Gulf system?? Well,,we need some rain.
It's well over 300 hours out.But it does show that we may need to watch the Gulf in these up coming weeks.It could spin up something once the pattern becomes more favorable for development.
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A Gulf system?? Well,,we need some rain.
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D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
OTHER SEVERE TSTMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT.


I wonder if this is from the backdoor cold front, because i see no other front coming.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Wow, air temp 101, dew point 9, and weather... Smoke! Go figure.


ewwwww, you in the southwest? NM maybe?
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The GFS is showing a storm in the gulf?..mmm
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Wow, air temp 101, dew point 9, and weather... Smoke! Go figure.
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Here you can see the storms outrunning the front, while new storms form along the frong at 23z:
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799
acus01 kwns 310553
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 310551


Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 am CDT Thursday may 31 2012


Valid 311200z - 011200z


....OH valley to mid-south...
Thunderstorms may develop along/ahead of cold front during midday/early
afternoon hours local time...especially near surface low and adjoining
cold/warm frontal segments where surface convergence will be relatively
maximized. Additional development will occur farther SW along/ahead
of front...although timing is more uncertain with patchy
coverage...given
1. More westerly/veered/weaker prefrontal surface winds over middle-south
compared to farther north...limiting convergence...and
2. Potential hindrances to heating due to remnant cloud cover from
convection farther west. This factor also may affect Ohio Valley
region...but would be more crucial here given weaker ambient lift.


Tornado potential appears relatively maximized...for either
quasi-linear or briefly supercellular Mode...within large-hodograph
environment just east/southeast of surface low and in vicinity of warm front. This area
will be characterized by relatively large low-level backing/srh and
northern rim of at least marginal warm-sector buoyancy. Damaging gusts are
likely from any sustained convection over this corridor...with some
Bow/lewp structures possible.


..S Texas...
Although low-level forcing may be rather weak in vicinity of frontal
zone...existing lift combined with intense diurnal heating should
suffice for thunderstorm formation during middle-late afternoon. Air mass may
become extremely buoyant as surface dew points middle 60s to low 70s f
support MLCAPE 3000-4000 j/kg. Magnitude of low-middle level flow
will be modest...generally at or below 15 knots through most of surface-550 mb
layer. However...strong veering with height will occur...not just into
midlevels but further upward through cape-bearing layer.
Upper-level/venting winds will increase with southward extent in proximity
to subtropical jet branch. As such...sufficient deep-layer shear is
expected to at least transient/heavy-precip supercell structures.
Large/damaging hail is likely from any such convection. Potential
also exists for localized but intense cold-pool development...with
well-mixed subcloud layers supporting damaging wind threat.
At this time...specific nodes of enhanced potential near front are too
uncertain to draw greater wind or hail probabilities over smaller
area.


.Edwards/leitman.. 05/31/2012
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Rain for S FL today
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What is this?
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Morning All, Looks like some good rains are coming to the Tampa bay area on friday.
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Everyone, please keep the families of those folks who lost their life in Beryl (as few as it may be) in your prayers. As for them, Beryl was presumably the most tragic storm they have ever encountered.
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Quoting RussianWinter:
How many inches of rain are predicted for SoFla?
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How many inches of rain are predicted for SoFla?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
6z GFS run has that Gulf system also but a little sooner and a little stronger



It kind of pulls a Lee in this run and just sits in the Gulf at the same strength from 324 hours or so through the end of the run.



NOLA!!!!
CAT5!!!!!

SARCASM FLAG__ON

But the GFS has been more consistent lately, the severe weather today was depicted at 264+hours out more than a week ago.

There could be a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow across the mid atlantic:

D OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE MORE DOMINANT. SOMEWHAT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.

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Friday...

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Good Morning
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6z GFS run has that Gulf system also but a little sooner and a little stronger



It kind of pulls a Lee in this run and just sits in the Gulf at the same strength from 324 hours or so through the end of the run.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
Good morning... End of the 0z GFS run has a Gulf system



Obviously that's highly unlikely to verify but it does show that the Gulf may become a more favorable environment over the coming weeks.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
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Hi Guys, Been a while. As my name says, a layman here, no expert.

Looks like a very active season, I am reticent to accept the 'normal' prediction.

One thing I noticed, and I am not being funny, but this year, the millipedes here in Barbados are all up the wall, for the last few weeks its been that way. Have not seen that since I have been where we live.

Seems like they have been trying to get away from something, probably lots of water.

We'll see, so far they have been right because the last week has been ample rain.

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Now that's what I call a wreath laying ceremony ...









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529. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
15:00 PM JST May 31 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.8N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 14.1N 126.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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