Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

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The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

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40 mph winds here now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
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Quoting ncstorm:
Pulled from WWAY in Whiteville, NC, Beryl Flooding


That's quite a bit of flooding....what's up ncstorm?
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Thanks Dr. Masters...good morning all
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straight line front over ARK

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*facepalm*


FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1213 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

NCC141-301915-
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.W.0013.120530T1613Z-120530T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PENDER NC-
1213 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PENDER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 1212 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS WARNING HAVE RECEIVED THREE TO FIVE
INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY...AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN MAY OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EXTRA RAIN WILL
CREATE SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...AS WELL AS
MINOR RURAL FLOODING...AND CAUSE DRAINAGE DITCHES TO OVERFLOW INTO
ROADWAYS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM IN THE WARNED AREA...
ESPECIALLY AT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ALONG DRAINAGE DITCHES...SMALL
CREEKS...AND LOW SPOTS ALONG ROADWAYS AND FIELDS. FLOODING MAY
PERSIST WELL AFTER THE RAINFALL COMES TO AND END. PEOPLE IN OR NEAR
LOCATIONS SUSECPTIBLE TO FLOODING SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS. FLOODING MAY BECOME PRONOUNCED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS...DRAINAGE DITCHES...RETENTION
PONDS...AND LOW SPOTS ALONG ROADWAYS. KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE
FLOODED BANKS OF STREAMS...CREEKS AND DITCHES. KEEP CHILDREN AWAY
FROM FLOODED DRAINAGE DITCHES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...
YOUR VEHICLE MAY STALL LEAVING YOU STRANDED.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Our floats (that are supposed to be in the pool) are floating around our backyard.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Here's to the Day 3 Categorial outlook, maybe I'll get something interesting!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
You always have to watch out when the SPC puts something like this in the discussion:

--POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT--

Tornado threat appears fairly low but there will be some massive hail and probably damaging winds also.

A 10% tornado probability is nothing to play around with either.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
You always have to watch out when the SPC puts something like this in the discussion:

--POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT--

Tornado threat appears fairly low but there will be some massive hail and probably damaging winds also.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
Quoting photomunkey:
Beryl did pretty well for a storm that Dr. Masters forecast to not reach tropical storm status or be much of a rain producer. Somewhat unusual for him to be that far off the mark... :| I wonder what that means for the upcoming season?

What are you talking about?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532




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It's going to get windy...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Beryl did pretty well for a storm that Dr. Masters forecast to not reach tropical storm status or be much of a rain producer. Somewhat unusual for him to be that far off the mark... :| I wonder what that means for the upcoming season?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's actually Chadbourn in Columbus county.


Wow..that area looks to be getting the worst from beryl..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
Quoting ncstorm:


Let me guess, Pender County?..I couldnt live anywhere where I have to have a car and a boat..hope the river dont flood over after beryl leaves

It's actually Chadbourn in Columbus county.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Let me guess, Pender County?..I couldnt live anywhere where I have to have a car and a boat..hope the river dont flood over after beryl leaves
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
Quoting ncstorm:
Pulled from WWAY in Whiteville, NC, Beryl Flooding


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Ouch that's way south
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, they're at different elevations.


Let's just say there's enough standing water that we're not going to be able to get out of the house anytime soon.


Good luck with that
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Thanks Dr. Masters


Response to a question posted on the last blog


Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Earlier a comment was made that the current location of the Bermuda High would be a main factor for U.S. landfalling storms this season. What conditions would allow the location of this High to be 'fixed' for the season. I mean, it's not like it is set in stone, right? So is 2004 an analogous year?



Typically by the end of May, the Bermuda high drops into a mean position. Obviously the position fluctuates as troughs come off the coast but for the most part, always returns to that general position. This is why timing is a key factor and steering is storm and time specific. General trends can be seen but finite steering absolutely not.


Thank you, ProgressivePulse.
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Pulled from WWAY in Whiteville, NC, Beryl Flooding

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
50. MTWX
Quoting TampaCat5:

Ah, nevermind, thought the readings of 999 and 998 above were being questioned.


It's OK, I was just commenting on the inland pressures near the so called "disturbance" just south of the Yucatan...

Realized they are not reading sea level pressure. They are reading station pressure.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


If it did, I would have to hide from here for a while as I've been very opinionated toward a few other bloggers on how it would not develop. LOL.

Same. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting MTWX:


That's what I thought. That 854.6 kinda threw me off for a second... LOL!

Ah, nevermind, thought the readings of 999 and 998 above were being questioned.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Thanks Dr. Masters


Response to a question posted on the last blog


Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Earlier a comment was made that the current location of the Bermuda High would be a main factor for U.S. landfalling storms this season. What conditions would allow the location of this High to be 'fixed' for the season. I mean, it's not like it is set in stone, right? So is 2004 an analogous year?



Typically by the end of May, the Bermuda high drops into a mean position. Obviously the position fluctuates as troughs come off the coast but for the most part, always returns to that general position. This is why timing is a key factor and steering is storm and time specific. General trends can be seen but finite steering absolutely not.

Well that's not good.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Thanks Dr. Masters
We didn't get rainfall here(from Beryl)..didn't really expect to though
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6884
45. MTWX
Quoting TampaCat5:

I wouldn't question the readings, most have instructions as to set your height and I would assume that is being done. The NHC says Beryl's pressure is 1000 mb as of 11 am. It could still be strengthening and also the NHC could be off by a mb.


Wasn't talking about Beryl, but thanks for the tidbit...
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Quoting MTWX:


Some of those inland sensors need to be checked I think, or are they set to location pressure instead of Sea level pressure??

I wouldn't question the readings, most have instructions as to set your height and I would assume that is being done. The NHC says Beryl's pressure is 1000 mb as of 11 am. It could still be strengthening and also the NHC could be off by a mb.
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Quoting hydrus:
Mean storms for the extreme east.
i need three days of rain so this will be perfect i put the order in this morning
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42. MTWX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, they're at different elevations.




That's what I thought. That 854.6 kinda threw me off for a second... LOL!
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Thanks Dr. Masters


Response to a question posted on the last blog


Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Earlier a comment was made that the current location of the Bermuda High would be a main factor for U.S. landfalling storms this season. What conditions would allow the location of this High to be 'fixed' for the season. I mean, it's not like it is set in stone, right? So is 2004 an analogous year?



Typically by the end of May, the Bermuda high drops into a mean position. Obviously the position fluctuates as troughs come off the coast but for the most part, always returns to that general position. This is why timing is a key factor and steering is storm and time specific. General trends can be seen but finite steering absolutely not.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Is that for this weekend, hydrus?
I will get back to you on that. I am swamped.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21782
Quoting MississippiWx:


If it did, I would have to hide from here for a while as I've been very opinionated toward a few other bloggers on how it would not develop. LOL.


I'm taking names. :)
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Quoting MTWX:


Some of those inland sensors need to be checked I think, or are they set to location pressure instead of Sea level pressure??

Yeah, they're at different elevations.

Quoting weatherh98:


Looks like ur getting slammed

Let's just say there's enough standing water that we're not going to be able to get out of the house anytime soon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting MTWX:


Some of those inland sensors need to be checked I think, or are they set to actual instead of Sea level pressure??


It's on a mountain was my original guess
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


True that, fridays are the best
Except, Friday nights are definitely better
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beryl will likely be declared post-tropical at the next advisory.



Looks like ur getting slammed
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34. MTWX
Quoting stormpetrol:


Some of those inland sensors need to be checked I think, or are they set to location pressure instead of Sea level pressure??
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Quoting MississippiWx:


If it did, I would have to hide from here for a while as I've been very opinionated toward a few other bloggers on how it would not develop. LOL.


Me too
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Quoting weatherh98:


Fridays are always fun:)


True that, fridays are the best
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Beryl will likely be declared post-tropical at the next advisory.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Cant wait for friday, gonna be a fun day here... Beryl is just being a nuisance, too much rain


Fridays are always fun:)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I don't expect any development from this.


If it did, I would have to hide from here for a while as I've been very opinionated toward a few other bloggers on how it would not develop. LOL.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Still nothing special about that disturbance. Still showing nothing of substance at the 850mb level. Convection is mainly being caused by an upper level low.

850mb



200mb



The 850 mb looks really sad
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.