Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

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The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

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What time is recon departing?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
I believe Miss Barrell Roll has passed us on by exit right
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126. MTWX
Quoting RitaEvac:
Red mean overnight?


No red is "significant severe weather" ( same as the black hatch on SPC)

Here is SPC's depiction...

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Quoting 2012GREEN1216:
IT SEEMS LIKE THE YEARS THAT ARE NEUTRAL ALWAYS TEND TO BE DEADLY SUCH AS THE 2005 SEASON..I RECENTLY DID SOME RESEARCH ON NEURTAL EVENT AND ONE OF THE SITES SAID ITS LIKE HAVING NO RULES BASICALLY LANADA LOL

Why are you typing in all caps..?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
123. MTWX
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
straight line front over ARK



Looking foward to it!! Severe Thunderstorm Watch up...
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The name to look out for this hurricane season...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Red mean overnight?

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Quoting stillwaiting:
I live in swfl,sarasota specifically and the rains we had zero measurable rainfall from beryl.Our rainfall was prior.We had zero effects from beryl and remained obsurdly dry.


I logged a grand total of 0.3" from Beryl here in Maitland.
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Quoting 2012GREEN1216:
yea i hope this year we could be lucky becuase i looked at the 2009 season and 2004 and those elninos were simillar they came at about the same time so yea thats something i wanted to talk about for a while LOL
1969 was also a weak El Nino and had more storms than 2004. I'm sure those along the Mississippi Gulf Coast remember that year very well.

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.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
This would be good if that moisture in the NW Caribbean gets thrown over the areas that didn't get much rain from Beryl.

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Quoting 2012GREEN1216:
since the 2004 season was active with an elnino durring hurricane season in place im starting to wonder about this years elnino if we still have one later in the season..so my conclusion is why was the 2004 hurricane season extremely active with an elnino..could this season be simmilar?

It could always be similar (not saying it WILL be). NOAA is calling for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes.

2004 had 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.

Landfalls depend on the position of the subtropical high.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Quoting ncstorm:


Is that for this weekend, hydrus?
Yes, but they are have a tough time figuring out just how severe it will be. They do agree that it will cover a large area ..Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Wednesday may 30 2012


Valid 311200z - 011200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the southern Ohio Valley to
scntrl Texas...


..OH/Tennessee Valley...


Increasing middle level height falls will overspread the middle MS valley
into the Ohio Valley during the day Thursday as Central Plains speed maximum
digs toward southern MO. This feature is expected to induce a surface low
over southeastern MO early in the period which will then track east-northeastward along
the Ohio River. By 18z it appears the center of circulation should be
approaching the confluence of the MS/Ohio rivers and a fairly well
defined warm front should Orient itself along the Ohio River.


Late day1 mesoscale convective system may be ongoing at the beginning of the period in
association with digging plains speed maximum. This complex of storms
will likely continue during the day with a propensity to spread
along/just north of the warm front as surface low begins to eject.
While some hail will occur with this elevated activity the potential
for more robust updrafts will be noted with recovering warm sector
across the southern Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley region. Forecast soundings
suggest a narrow corridor of stronger shear will coincide with
moistening/recovering warm sector immediately ahead of surface low. As
a result...a few supercells may develop near the warm front.
Otherwise...daytime heating will contribute to an increasingly
unstable airmass that should support convective
development/intensification along advancing cold front as it surges
east across western KY/TN. Wind and some hail will be the primary
severe threats with non-supercell activity.



Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 am CDT Wednesday may 30 2012


Valid 011200z - 021200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across much of the eastern
states...


..much of the eastern states...
Severe potential the first day of June will generally be tied to the
east-northeastward advancement of a potent upper trough over the
eastern third of the Continental U.S....focused along/ahead of an eastward
moving cold front. Some timing/spatial uncertainties carryover from
the day 2 period...with 00z European model (ecmwf)/NAM guidance generally faster than
the 00z GFS. Nevertheless...as the parent upper system trends toward
a slight negative tilt on Friday...ample forcing for ascent/vertical
shear will contribute to sustained strong/severe thunderstorms within a
diurnally destabilizing boundary layer...with the possibility of
1000-2000 j/kg MLCAPE. This will be the case 1/ ahead of the cold
front and 2/ along and south of a northward-shifting warm front
across the Middle-Atlantic States/Delmarva.


Damaging winds /potentially widespread/ and severe hail will be the
primary hazards from what should mainly be a multicellular/linear
convective Mode. Some supercells...perhaps even a tornado
threat...could occur provided sufficient destabilization near the
aforementioned warm front. Farther south...a more isolated/marginal
severe potential is anticipated across the southeast states/FL.


..south-Central High plains to lower MO valley...
Current thinking is that at least isolated thunderstorms will develop Friday
afternoon across far eastern nm/southeast Colorado and the adjacent
south-Central High plains in vicinity of a surface trough. Detailed
confidence in this scenario is not particularly high at this
time...but some isolated strong/severe thunderstorms mainly capable of hail
might be possible Friday afternoon/early evening.


Later Friday night and farther east...elevated thunderstorms may increase on
the northeast edge of the cap amid a warm advection regime across
the south-Central Plains/lower MO valley. Some hail might be
possible...but considerable spatial/scenario uncertainties preclude
severe probabilities.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, this is on the outskirts of the city. Although I imagine "downtown" Rocky Point probably isn't faring to well either.

Probly not...be careful
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Quoting K8eCane:


wastrying to get my bearings but you probly arent right in the "heart"" of RP at the stoplight in this pic are you?

No, this is on the outskirts of the city. Although I imagine "downtown" Rocky Point probably isn't faring to well either.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
I had some family that lived there in Newells Hollow
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I live in swfl,sarasota specifically and the rains we had zero measurable rainfall from beryl.Our rainfall was prior.We had zero effects from beryl and remained obsurdly dry.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here in Rocky Point.


wastrying to get my bearings but you probly arent right in the "heart"" of RP at the stoplight in this pic are you?
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Quoting K8eCane:




Where?

Here in Rocky Point.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Where?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Translation: CAPE - A measure of how unstable the atmosphere is.

CAPE values between 500-100 j/kg are high enough to support tornado outbreak if there is high shear. Otherwise, you want to see it 1500+ j/kg.
Nice.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
BBL
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7981
Sunshine will be limited here..thursday into friday night

CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR FRI. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO
BACK AND FORTH WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT OR SAT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES. WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION
SEEMS TO BE GIVEN AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT...SB
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND
8...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IS
NOT SO MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT A MATTER OF TIMING THE COLD FRONT.
SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM FRI EVENING TO LATE SAT MORNING. THE REASON FOR
THE DISCORD IS THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTER
PART OF THE COUNTRY. 00Z GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A FASTER
SOLUTION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO WILL CARRY A MENTION OF
PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE CLIMO...WARMEST THU/THU NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUD COVER FRI WILL
KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH ARRIVAL OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
POTENTIALLY DROPPING LOWS NEAR CLIMO IF THE FASTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE VERIFIES.
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Quoting hydrus:
I know a lot of people here know what CAPE is, I post this for those who might not...CAPE - convective available potential energy (>=500 j/kg)- indicates energy available for buoyant parcel from native RUC2 hybrid-b level with maximum buoyancy within 300 mb of surface. CINH - convective inhibition, or negative area, typically associated with a capping inversion or warmer air aloft that tends to inhibit the release of buoyant energy.

Translation: CAPE - A measure of how unstable the atmosphere is.

CAPE values between 500-100 j/kg are high enough to support tornado outbreak if there is high shear. Otherwise, you want to see it 1500+ j/kg.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Quoting Brock31:
998 mb now.


i think may be in that window of op for strengthening and even tho extratropical it can strengthen AS IT MOVES AWAY!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this was a 2010 event


Yes, a previous eclipse they published that was seen on Africa/Asia......
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9803
I know a lot of people here know what CAPE is, I post this for those who might not...CAPE - convective available potential energy (>=500 j/kg)- indicates energy available for buoyant parcel from native RUC2 hybrid-b level with maximum buoyancy within 300 mb of surface. CINH - convective inhibition, or negative area, typically associated with a capping inversion or warmer air aloft that tends to inhibit the release of buoyant energy.
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998 mb now.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Here's to the Day 3 Categorial outlook, maybe I'll get something interesting!
I believe it is a strong possibility.
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O.K..
The wind has gone North at 28+40 with rain showers here in Wilmington.
29.54 and falling !!!
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My 12 year old has strep throat
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Quoting ncstorm:


My kids are in school..hopefully these winds will die down before they leave today


The wind should but i hope there arent too many hazards around and flooding
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back at 3 during break
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Quoting K8eCane:

if my son was at school right now and having to take the bus home, id be PISSED


My kids are in school..hopefully these winds will die down before they leave today
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Eclipse Photos: "Ring of Fire" Shines Over Africa, Asia

Link
this was a 2010 event
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Daily SOI: -21.97
30 SOI: -2.21
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7981
but the fact that the bus driver lost him when he was in 1st grade may have something to do with that
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Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Nigel! yes, inland counties are catching the brunt of beryl..

I know that you guys need the rain, but hopefully the flooding is limited!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7981
lunch is up
back to work
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Chadbourn, NC

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Eclipse Photos: "Ring of Fire" Shines Over Africa, Asia

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9803
Algae bloom in North Atlantic is truly huge. This image is 800 miles across and it goes well beyond that. MODIS today.
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Quoting nigel20:

That's quite a bit of flooding....what's up ncstorm?


Hey Nigel! yes, inland counties are catching the brunt of beryl..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well that's not good.



It may not make a difference if regular troughs come off the coast and keep shunting the high eastwards. Also if the timing is in our favor, impossible to tell that now however. Neutral / El Nino tend to favor a more southwestward displaced Bermuda high. Based on past history, neutral years provide roughly the same increased landfall probabilities in FL.

4. RESULTS

Between 1900 and 1998, a total of 60 hurricanes made landfall in Florida. Of those 60, 18 occurred during the 23 cold events, 6 made landfall during the 22 warm events and 36 hit during the 54 neutral events. During the same time period, only 46 hurricanes made landfall along the East Coast. There were 16 landfalls during the 23 cold years, 9 during the 22 warm years, and 21 landfalls during the 54 neutral years. The number of hurricane landfalls in both regions shows a clear inter-annual variability (Figs. 1 and 2). The largest number of hurricanes to hit either Florida or the East Coast in one year is three. This occurred in 1964 for Florida (Fig. 1) and in both 1954 and 1955 for the East Coast (Fig. 2). Since the results for the Gulf Coast (not shown) and Florida were nearly identical, only results for Florida and the East Coast will be discussed from this point on.



a. Landfall Probabilities

The ICFDs reveal a La Niņa increase relative to neutral in hurricane landfalls along the East Coast, that is not present in Florida. During a cold event, the probability of two or more hurricanes hitting the East Coast is 18% vs. only 9% during a neutral event (Fig. 3). In Florida, the probability of two or more hurricanes making landfall is 22% during a cold event and 20% during a neutral event (Fig. 4). No warm phase year has produced more than one hurricane landfall in either Florida or along the East Coast. For both areas there is a decrease in hurricane landfalls in the warm phase, thus only the cold and neutral events will be discussed hereafter.
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40 mph winds here now
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.