Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

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The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 2012GREEN1216:
lol i think gordon will FINALLY get retired it pissed me off to see that they havent retired it from 1994 1000+ fatalities are unexceptable now :/


I'm thinking Gordon will be the one to watch out for too. I think Isaac and Kirk may be slightly too late in the list this season. I think we'll get to them, but when the season's winding down. But that doesn't stop many late-season storms such as Paloma, Tomas, and Wilma, so it's all really a crapshoot to try and guess which name will go to the strongest/most destructive storm lol.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Classic.
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This makes it sooo muggy here...showers that pop and run so the sun can bake ya !!..LOL


intellicast View



Here's WU My area Animation

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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Any new info on the mess in the carribean?


Pretty much the same condition, it's prolly going to move into the BOC though..
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Any new info on the mess in the carribean?

Still disorganized and shouldn't develop.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32818
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not quite sure that was a compliment, weatherh98. :P


I know TA hahaha I'm just joking
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Any new info on the mess in the carribean?
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Saw a little rain from Beryl here in central VA this morning but now it's all east of here. Quite a sharp cutoff in the rainfall totals here.



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Quoting weatherh98:


Must have gone away?! I guess so.

Thanks I appreciate that.

Not quite sure that was a compliment, weatherh98. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32818
Quoting RitaEvac:


Corpus showed HUGE cap in soundings this morning


Must have gone away?! I guess so.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
To Flag Ignore and Report is one thing, but to intentionally quote the person and inform everyone of your decision to do so is childish and truly shows how immature a person is


Thanks I appreciate that.
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Dont apologize for making comments, usually its beneficial to someone
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1994 only made it to the "G" name (Gordon).


I'd hate to be on the blog then hahaha
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To Flag Ignore and Report is one thing, but to intentionally quote the person and inform everyone of your decision to do so is childish and truly shows how immature a person is
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Quoting weatherh98:


What about 1994?

1994 only made it to the "G" name (Gordon).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32818
Weird.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22617
Quoting weatherh98:


There may not be a cap, the storms take a while to build, let's check instability.

It appears there is one in north Texas but not really anywhere else


Corpus showed HUGE cap in soundings this morning
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
History of Isaac's...

1988:





2000:





2006:





What about 1994?
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157. txjac
Quoting klaatuborada:
Ok, this is what gets me going.

Weather Underground weather forecast for my area, 50% chance of rain today, 20% chance of rain tonight.

NOAA weather forecast for my area, 20% chance of rain today increasing to 80% later this afternoon and tonight.

All this technology, all this knowledge and education and this is what I get.

I was hoping to go to the Drive-In tonight. Here's my weather forecast. If we don't go, it won't rain, if we do go, it will rain.


Yea, it is hard to make plans around forcasts like that!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2617
Ok, this is what gets me going.

Weather Underground weather forecast for my area, 50% chance of rain today, 20% chance of rain tonight.

NOAA weather forecast for my area, 20% chance of rain today increasing to 80% later this afternoon and tonight.

All this technology, all this knowledge and education and this is what I get.

I was hoping to go to the Drive-In tonight. Here's my weather forecast. If we don't go, it won't rain, if we do go, it will rain.
Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 397
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History of Isaac's...

1988:





2000:





2006:



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32818
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
127 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

FLZ052-301830-
POLK-
127 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 2:30 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH POLK COUNTY AT 15 TO 20 MPH. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

$$

MML
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Whatever cap is out there in Central TX and SE TX may be blowing its lid later on because it's cooking out here, muggy, steamy, and calm winds. Cumulus is building around me and just has that feel out here things are gonna blow.


There may not be a cap, the storms take a while to build, let's check instability.

It appears there is one in north Texas but not really anywhere else
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Quoting 2012GREEN1216:


Flag Ignore report
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Quoting MTWX:
Excerpt from SPC Day 2:

...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTH TX...

SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS SFC PRESSURES BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL AND FLOW DEEPENS FROM THE NW THERE WILL BE A
PROPENSITY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED...AND SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ACROSS TX IT APPEARS
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL
.



Going to be interesting down your way Rita...


Need to notify what's his name that lives in Buda, I don't think he had a clue this was in the forecast
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Thank God this didn't hit land...

Cat 4 Hurricane Issac 2000:

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Whatever cap is out there in Central TX and SE TX may be blowing its lid later on because it's cooking out here, muggy, steamy, and calm winds. Cumulus is building around me and just has that feel out here things are gonna blow.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


No go.

NOUS42 KNHC 301215
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0815 AM EDT WED 30 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z MAY TO 01/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-012

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION ON TD BERYL FOR 30/1800Z
AND 31/0000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 30/1200Z.
RE: SYSTEM OVERLAND, HAS NO CORE AND IS
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.


Oh. Why'd they put it under "For tomorrow" :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32818
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Isaac and Kirk, yeah....those don't sound too good.


Kick but storms list 2012 courtesy of TA13 and WXH98

Isaac
Kirk
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Coastal N.C. counties fighting sea-level rise prediction

Science panel predicts 1-meter sea-level rise by 2100;
counties say that could harm economic development


By Bruce Henderson
bhenderson@charlotteobserver.com
Posted: Monday, May. 28, 2012
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/05/25/32656 14/coastal-nc-counties-fighting-sea.html

DISAGREEMENT OVER STUDY
A state-appointed science advisory panel reported in 2010 that sea level along the North Carolina coast is likely to rise 1 meter by 2100. An economic development group, however, argues that the science is flawed. An 8-inch rise is more likely, it says.


SEA-LEVEL RISE PAST AND FUTURE
According to tide gauges, sea level rose an average of 1.7mm a year during the 20th century, NASA says. Satellites, which are considered more accurate, show a rate of 3.17mm a year since 1993. The International Panel on Climate Change in 2007 projected a rise of 18 to 59 centimeters by 2099, depending on how temperatures change.



State lawmakers are considering a measure that would limit how North Carolina prepares for sea-level rise, which many scientists consider one of the surest results of climate change.

Federal authorities say the North Carolina coast is vulnerable because of its low, flat land and thin fringe of barrier islands. A state-appointed science panel has reported that a 1-meter rise is likely by 2100.

The calculation, prepared for the N.C. Coastal Resources Commission, was intended to help the state plan for rising water that could threaten 2,000 square miles. Critics say it could thwart economic development on just as large a scale.

A coastal economic development group called NC-20 attacked the report, insisting the scientific research it cited is flawed. The science panel last month confirmed its findings, recommending that they be reassessed every five years.

But NC-20, named for the 20 coastal counties, appears to be winning its campaign to undermine them.

The Coastal Resources Commission agreed to delete references to planning benchmarks %u2013 such as the 1-meter prediction %u2013 and new development standards for areas likely to be inundated.

The N.C. Division of Emergency Management, which is using a $5 million federal grant to analyze the impact of rising water, lowered its worst-case scenario from 1 meter to 15 inches by 2100.

Several local governments on the coast have passed resolutions against sea-level rise policies.
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138. MTWX
Excerpt from SPC Day 2:

...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTH TX...

SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS SFC PRESSURES BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL AND FLOW DEEPENS FROM THE NW THERE WILL BE A
PROPENSITY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED...AND SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ACROSS TX IT APPEARS
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL
.



Going to be interesting down your way Rita...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I didn't even know recon was going out today, lol...


No go.

NOUS42 KNHC 301215
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0815 AM EDT WED 30 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z MAY TO 01/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-012

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION ON TD BERYL FOR 30/1800Z
AND 31/0000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 30/1200Z.
RE: SYSTEM OVERLAND, HAS NO CORE AND IS
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

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Quoting 2012GREEN1216:
why you think that lol?


Sounds BA
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I didn't even know recon was going out today, lol...

The TCPOD says they are....they should've left around 11:30 a.m. EDT but I don't see confirmation that they have.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32818
Quoting weatherh98:
I say Kirk is the bad one this year

Isaac and Kirk, yeah....those don't sound too good.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32818
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What time is recon departing?

I didn't even know recon was going out today, lol...
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I say Kirk is the bad one this year
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Quoting MTWX:

No read is "significant severe weather"


Then that was unexpected then and close to me, if whatever were to form there should be no reason for some good rains to head my way towards the coast



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What time is recon departing?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32818

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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