Beryl headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012

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The center of Tropical Depression Beryl is close to the ocean again, and the storm has strengthened slightly in response. Beryl's heavy rain show will be focused on Eastern North Carolina today, where widespread rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches can be expected. Beryl's heaviest rains fell over Lafayette County, Florida, on Monday and Tuesday, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned a single tornado on both Monday and Tuesday; these twisters did only minor damage. There is a slight chance the storm could produce another weak tornado today over North Carolina. The storm is being blamed for one death--a swimmer that drowned in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Another swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina. All things considered, Beryl was just the sort of tropical storm the Southeast U.S. needed--strong enough to bring the heavy rains needed to alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions over the region, but not so strong as to cause major damage and loss of life. The main bummer was that Beryl hit during the Memorial Day holiday weekend, costing the tourism industry tens of millions of dollars in lost business. With Beryl caught in a trough of low pressure and accelerating to the northeast, the storm should transition to an extratropical storm later today.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:25 pm EDT May 29, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl over the past seven days from NOAA/AHPS.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pcola57:


I think DavidHOUTX was trying to simplify it for us here...to get to my level you have to..lol
Thanks for your input to Minnemike...:)
it isn't simplification if it is false though.. i mean, i see where you're coming from, but it could just be simplified as waves moving through the air.. much Like waves in water.. friction between two layers of fluid..
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Hmm interesting, will have to research further. Thanks
outflow is simply the descending column of air from a thunderstorm fanning out across the surface. in fact, i think they usually cool an environment, with the exception of some downbursts(microbursts) that actually do warm air due to thermodynamic properties. i know less about those...
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Quoting Minnemike:
this is false. gravity waves do not start at the ocean surface wave action.
here is a nice little breakdown: Link
it has a lot more to do with stable and unstable layers of air adjacent to each other.


I think DavidHOUTX was trying to simplify it for us here...to get to my level you have to..lol
Thanks for your input to Minnemike...:)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
623. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Minnemike:
yeah, the mechanisms of outflow and gravity waves, or bores, is a bit different... though, an outflow boundary can certainly propagate undular bores, but they will ripple out ahead of the actual outflow boundary.


Hmm interesting, will have to research further. Thanks
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Quoting WxGeekVA:

Yeah.

Hey WxGeekVA, ready for tomorrow's potential MDT risk?



"SOMEWHAT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.
"
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32265
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It is a pretty crazy phenomenon. The waves from the ocean push the wind above the water surface up and down and in turn make waves in the clouds. That is about as simple as I can explain it. If anyone else has a better way of saying it, feel free to chime in.
this is false. gravity waves do not start at the ocean surface wave action.
here is a nice little breakdown: Link
it has a lot more to do with stable and unstable layers of air adjacent to each other.

edit: there are a wide variety of 'gravity waves' and there were some beautiful ones yesterday in TX as layers of air destabilized preceding the pop-up of the supercellular line.. if anyone has a southern plains visible loop from yesterday, they will be quite apparent :)
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
WXGeek keep an eye to the sky tomorrow...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've been impressed with the GFS in regards to both Severe and Tropical Weather. It nailed the March 2 and April 14 outbreaks while they were in the long range, and pretty much nailed Beryl down 300+ hours out. It's starting to gain consistency on a Gulf of Mexico storm towards the end of its run in mid-June.

00Z hour 384:



06Z hour 384:

DOOM!!.I find it interesting that the models have been having almost every single tropical storm on the runs hanging around the U.S.Mmmmm
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've been impressed with the GFS in regards to both Severe and Tropical Weather. It nailed the March 2 and April 14 outbreaks while they were in the long range, and pretty much nailed Beryl down 300+ hours out. It's starting to gain consistency on a Gulf of Mexico storm towards the end of its run in mid-June.

00Z hour 384:



06Z hour 384:


I mean, it DID get a major upgrade a week and a half ago.... Maybe now it'll be as good as the Euro in the long range.
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Look west of Houston on this radar loop, another gravity wave moving south, note the popcorn cells intensify then weaken as the wave moves southward

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Quoting WDEmobmet:



See now that looks like a gravity wave, but the visible that Rita was talking about, too looked like an outflow boundary to me
yeah, the mechanisms of outflow and gravity waves, or bores, is a bit different... though, an outflow boundary can certainly propagate undular bores, but they will ripple out ahead of the actual outflow boundary.
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Quoting weatherh98:

What are they


For a visual weather98 see Post 594 (or 616 for that matter)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
I must say, I've been impressed with the GFS in regards to both Severe and Tropical Weather so far this year. It nailed the March 2 and April 14 outbreaks while they were in the long range, and pretty much nailed Beryl down 300 hours out. It's starting to gain consistency on a Gulf of Mexico storm towards the end of its run in mid-June.

00Z hour 384:



06Z hour 384:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32265
Quoting pcola57:


Very cool..What in the world causes them?



Nice explaination of what to look for Rita


It is a pretty crazy phenomenon. The waves from the ocean push the wind above the water surface up and down and in turn make waves in the clouds. That is about as simple as I can explain it. If anyone else has a better way of saying it, feel free to chime in.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico


What are they
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Post 601 anyone?
It's ok now I'm on my 2nd cup of coffee now..lol
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
Beryl now entering the Hurricane Graveyard

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I assume if flying in an airliner towards it, you're gonna hit turbulence
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico

That is an awesome picture . Thank you for posting it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
Quoting RitaEvac:


Latest radar definitely showing it missing us


Sure does. It is still trying to build towards the West but it better hurry up. Will be interesting once that entire mass gets down towards us. May have some pretty nice storms coming together later this afternoon
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GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 31, 2012 - 13:45 UTC
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
Quoting RitaEvac:


Notice the low levels of the gulf still moving northward as the gravity wave above higher up moves SE over the Gulf in an arc fashion



yea i see the lower clouds in the central gulf are moving northwards towards the texas coast, it does appear as though they are pilling up. I see what your pointing towards, there is a couple more frames added to it now and can clearly see the Gravity wave stacking into an arc
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Quoting hydrus:
Talk about a moist Atlantic.Totally opposite from last year.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico



Very cool..What in the world causes them?

Quoting RitaEvac:


Notice the low levels of the gulf still moving northward as the gravity wave above higher up moves SE over the Gulf in an arc fashion


Nice explaination of what to look for Rita
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
Actually this is the affects of a gravity wave. Can't actually see it moving.

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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
Quoting WDEmobmet:



See now that looks like a gravity wave, but the visible that Rita was talking about, too looked like an outflow boundary to me


Notice the low levels of the gulf still moving northward as the gravity wave above higher up moves SE over the Gulf in an arc fashion
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico




See now that looks like a gravity wave, but the visible that Rita was talking about, too looked like an outflow boundary to me
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yea it is definitely trying too. I noticed that as well but have seen it before and it doesn't quite make it here. I didn't want to jinx it lol


Latest radar definitely showing it missing us
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Well see I thought the same thing but came across that site that described that loop as a thunderstorm made gravity wave. Still alot I dont know about gravity waves but they seem to be generated in the same way
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Gravity Waves over the Gulf of Mexico

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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Also known as "Bore's". Bores can be windy, and actually raise the temperature briefly, helping storms to form, notice how they form here



courtesy of Alabamawx.com

That's an outflow boundary.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32265
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Also known as "Bore's". Bores can be windy, and actually raise the temperature briefly, helping storms to form, notice how they form here



courtesy of Alabamawx.com


That is definitely an outflow boundary. That is air pushed out well ahead of the storm which allows the storm to breath and get stronger. Usually will drop the temp and raise the pressure. These are also known as gust fronts.
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Quoting pcola57:


The 2002 "A" storm...
One some wish they could forget.
An eye-opener for many.
You mean 1992?.585 that would certainly be weird.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I know you all maybe forgot but..tomorrow is the OFFICIAL start of hurricane season.And this year will be the 20th anniversary of hurricane Andrew.


The 1992 "A" storm...
One some wish they could forget.
An eye-opener for many.

Edit:1992 Storm..Thanks washintonian115
first cup "o" coffee,thats stike one for me..lol :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Also known as "Bore's". Bores can be windy, and actually raise the temperature briefly, helping storms to form, notice how they form here



That's an outflow boundary, I think Gravity waves are high up in the atmosphere, anybody wanna jump in on that?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


It's gonna back-build to the SW, check radar and you'll see it already doing it


Yea it is definitely trying too. I noticed that as well but have seen it before and it doesn't quite make it here. I didn't want to jinx it lol
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Quoting RitaEvac:
NICE gravity wave pushing off the TX and LA coast on visible loop


Also known as "Bore's". Bores can be windy, and actually raise the temperature briefly, helping storms to form, notice how they form here



courtesy of Alabamawx.com
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
The remnants of Beryl info.

Here's a look at the whole Atlantic basin. I see a big extratropical cyclone northeast of Beryl. Is Beryl supposed to be absorbed by this one?

And, I see a patch of clouds east of the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm not good at looking at the models, so I'll ask you guys. Could the system develop into a tropical cyclone?

Also, what is vorticity and how is it related to tropical cyclones? I couldn't understand when you guys were talking about it.


http://www.google.com/custom?hl=en&client=pub-229 6614687681548&cof=FORID%3A1%3BGL%3A1%3BLBGC%3A3366 99%3BLC%3A%230000ff%3BVLC%3A%23663399%3BGFNT%3A%23 0000ff%3BGIMP%3A%230000ff%3BDIV%3A%23336699%3B&dom ains=www.theweatherprediction.com&ie=ISO-8859-1&oe =ISO-8859-1&q=vorticity tropical&btnG=Search&sitesearch=www.theweatherpred iction.com


http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/56/
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I know you all maybe forgot but..tomorrow is the OFFICIAL start of hurricane season.And this year will be the 20th anniversary of hurricane Andrew.


As the first storm of the season will start as a "C" and will be the 3rd.
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Well I know you all maybe forgot but..tomorrow is the OFFICIAL start of hurricane season.And this year will be the 20th anniversary of hurricane Andrew.
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Quoting dogsgomoo:
Really pretty map of 56 years worth of Tornado activity created by John Nelson using data.gov.

Even though he used a straight-line start point to end point representation and not a 'true path' representation you can clearly see the intensity of tornadoes clustered in Dixie Alley.

Also... damn, that's a lot of lines.


is that a tornado that crossed FL? Wow.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
The remnants of Beryl info.
AL, 02, 2012053112, , BEST, 0, 370N, 705W, 35, 1000, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 130, 100, 0,

35 kt 1000mb weakening.

Here's a look at the whole Atlantic basin. I see a big extratropical cyclone northeast of Beryl. Is Beryl supposed to be absorbed by this one?

And, I see a patch of clouds east of the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm not good at looking at the models, so I'll ask you guys. Could the system develop into a tropical cyclone?

Also, what is vorticity and how is it related to tropical cyclones? I couldn't understand when you guys were talking about it.

Yes, ex-Beryl should be absorbed into that extratropical system.

No, that patch of clouds is not a threat to develop.

Vorticity is the amount of spin a (in this instance) tropical cyclone has.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32265
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-312000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE KEYS AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO 2 TO 4 INCHES SOUTH
OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE
EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BECOME A
POSSIBILITY WHERE THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED.
INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES
THROUGH THIS TIME. AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

$$

BAXTER
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The remnants of Beryl info.
AL, 02, 2012053112, , BEST, 0, 370N, 705W, 35, 1000, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 130, 100, 0,

35 kt 1000mb weakening.

Here's a look at the whole Atlantic basin. I see a big extratropical cyclone northeast of Beryl. Is Beryl supposed to be absorbed by this one?

And, I see a patch of clouds east of the Yucatan Peninsula. I'm not good at looking at the models, so I'll ask you guys. Could the system develop into a tropical cyclone?

Also, what is vorticity and how is it related to tropical cyclones? I couldn't understand when you guys were talking about it.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Put a nice dent it in though, and also..

Tampa shields in full effect, now we have a map that shows the radius! Seriously, what's up with that? Tampa received hardly any rain. Where's Jedkins? I need someone to rant with about this.
lol Tampa really needs to lower the shields huh, we need the rain here too
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Quoting ncstorm:
we are supposed to get up to the 90's today but I dont even care..I can actually see the sun!! NWS, Wilmington, NC concerning the severe weather threat tomorrow

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRI WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 5H TROUGH
IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH FRI
MORNING. FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHILE THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHES CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GET THE JOB DONE.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT. GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOW SRH IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND/HAIL EVENT IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
THOUGH GIVEN ALL THE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE
AROUND...OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE...CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.
yes Beryl is out to sea and the suns out here too, rain tomorrow but a nice day today for us here
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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