Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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1080. ProgressivePulse
3:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Earlier a comment was made that the current location of the Bermuda High would be a main factor for U.S. landfalling storms this season. What conditions would allow the location of this High to be 'fixed' for the season. I mean, it's not like it is set in stone, right? So is 2004 an analogous year?


Typically by the end of May, the Bermuda high drops into a mean position. Obviously the position fluctuates as troughs come off the coast but for the most part, always returns to that general position. This is why timing is a key factor and steering is storm and time specific. General trends can be seen but finite steering absolutely not.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5450
1079. Grothar
2:56 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
As the wave entering near the Antilles moves into the Caribbean,it may give a little boost to the Western Caribbean to get something going there in a few days.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
1078. Skyepony (Mod)
2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Its been over water? I thought the center is still on land?


It's about 8hrs over water now. Kinda been riding up the coast. Radar can be deceiving since you see mid levels there too. Check out the link. Dvorak doesn't come up with much over land.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38201
1077. weatherbro
2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah as that pattern is a wet one for FL during the wet season. Will also need to watchout for a home grown system off the SE US in that pattern.



Actually the models are completely eliminating rain chances after Sunday as they have been very adamant for the past three days on this anomalous trough bringing a strong(for this time of year) late season cold front right on through even south Florida by early next week. It looks to me the dry season will pay us one last visit.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1313
1076. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1075. ncstorm
2:50 PM GMT on May 30, 2012


From staff reports-Star News
Published: Wednesday, May 30, 2012 at 12:30 a.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, May 30, 2012 at 6:01 a.m.

9:30 a.m. - Wreck near Memorial Bridge

There was a traffic accident Wednesday morning on the side of U.S. 74-76 near the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge just inside Brunswick County, according to Brunswick County dispatch.

It could not be determined immediately whether there were injuries as crews had just arrived on the scene.
9 a.m. - Water accumulates on U.S. 17

Water had accumulated on U.S. 17 near N.C. 87, and traffic was moving very slowly, the Brunswick County Sheriff's Office reported.
7:30 a.m. - Area could get 1 - 3 more inches of rain

The greatest rain totals in the Wilmington area Wednesday morning were 2 to 2.5 inches in northern New Hanover County, with reports of about 1.5 inches near Masonboro Island, said Rachel Zouzias, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Wilmington.

The weather service predicted one to three more inches of rain for the Wilmington area Wednesday.

Highest winds were about 34 miles an hour right along the coast in Oak Island and Calabash, with 10 to 15 miles an hour and gusts to 20 mph inland across the area, she said.

Gusts to 39 miles an hour were reported at a buoy offshore.

The worst of the storm hit across the border in South Carolina, where three to four inches of rain were reported inland in Horry County, Zouzias said.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15696
1074. BrickellBreeze
2:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
In the 7 1/2hrs Beryl has been over water again pressure has gone from 1014mb to 1009mb, CI# 1.0 to 2.0, all weakening flags are off & the scene is once again shear..


Its been over water? I thought the center is still on land?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1073. CybrTeddy
2:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
It looks like our next threat for cyclone development will once again be off the US East Coast. By the end of the ECMWF's forecasting period for the 2nd run in a row, a trough will be draped out over the Atlantic with the tail by the US East Coast that will 'pinch' off. This is a classic setup for trough split development, pretty similar to Bret last year and should be watched for ''Chris''. I will not predict development yet as the ECMWF doesn't even have a low pressure area but it's something to watch.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24187
1072. ncstorm
2:44 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
NWS in Wilmington, NC

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL NOW MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PROGS MOVE
BERYL ENE ALONG THE COAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...WITH THE CENTER MOVING
OVER WATER BY THE 12Z FORECAST POINT...WHICH WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF
GEORGETOWN SC. BERYL STRENGTHENS OVER WATER AND AGAIN BECOMES A
TROPICAL STORM...MOVING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AT 8 PM.

RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL NOT AS HIGH THUS FAR AS
ANTICIPATED. LATEST RADAR LOOPS HOW RAINFALL CONCENTRATED ON THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF BERYL...WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW
COVERING ALL OUR SC COUNTIES. STORM ITSELF IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS
OF ELONGATION AND TILTING AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW DRY AIR
BECOMING ENTRAINED AROUND ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBS DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE CENTER...AND A
MOVE OVER WARM COASTAL WATERS WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN AND THEN
STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES AT PRESENT DO NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT...THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS BERYL REGAINS STRENGTH
AND...PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS THUS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY...SO WILL LEAVE PRESENT
FLOOD WATCH INTACT. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE ALREADY SMALL
TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FURTHER WITH THE LATEST UPDATE FROM
SPC. WE ARE NO LONGER IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

ALTHOUGH BERYL WILL STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AFTER IT
MOVES OVER WATER...THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE
SE QUADRANT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THUS NOT ANTICIPATED
OVER LAND. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40
KT RANGE IN STRONGER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN BERYLS RAIN BANDS.
VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL AT PRESENT.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15696
1071. hydrus
2:43 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21430
1070. ncstorm
2:42 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
East Coast Hurricane Visible Loop
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15696
1069. Skyepony (Mod)
2:37 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
In the 7 1/2hrs Beryl has been over water again pressure has gone from 1014mb to 1009mb, CI# 1.0 to 2.0, all weakening flags are off & the scene is once again shear..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38201
1068. BrickellBreeze
2:35 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Recent Conditions -- Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy

Air temperature: 24.3 °C (76.3 °F)
Dewpoint temperature: 22.4 °C (72.8 °F)
Sea level pressure: 1002.6 hPa (29.6 in)
Significant wave height: 3.4 m (11.2 ft)
Water temperature: 24.2 °C (76.1 °F)
Wind gust speed: 20.0 m/s (38.9 kts)
Wind speed: 16.0 m/s (31.1 kts)
Last reported: 10:50 AM GMT 05/30/2012
5:50 AM EST 05/30/2012
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1067. K8eCane
2:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting MTWX:


Thats all we need is more dang accronyms!! LOL!! ;)


Im sorry. I got bored
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3207
1066. SFLWeatherman
2:31 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Hey check out my video from last month- It Only Takes One Hurricane. I will have a new video out on the first. Link
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4685
1065. MTWX
2:31 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting K8eCane:
OK Day after tomorrow is official start. These may help us move a little faster.

PDNH (Please Do Not Hype)
ADFS (another damn fish storm)
DFTT (dont feed the trolls)
ISYRM (I suggest you remove that)
ITAYGB (Im Telling And You're Getting Banned)
ROFLMDO to be used only by Grothar (rolling on floor laughing my dentures out)
KMAF (Kiss My A*& Fool)


Thats all we need is more dang accronyms!! LOL!! ;)
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
1064. K8eCane
2:30 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Houston waiter receives $5K tip after storm destroys his car


Thats awesome!
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3207
1063. K8eCane
2:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
OK Day after tomorrow is official start. These may help us move a little faster.

PDNH (Please Do Not Hype)
ADFS (another damn fish storm)
DFTT (dont feed the trolls)
ISYRM (I suggest you remove that)
ITAYGB (Im Telling And You're Getting Banned)
ROFLMDO to be used only by Grothar (rolling on floor laughing my dentures out)
KMAF (Kiss My A*& Fool)
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3207
1062. RitaEvac
2:27 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Houston waiter receives $5K tip after storm destroys his car


This is the actual $5,000 cash wad that server Greg Rubar received Saturday.
/ HC
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
1061. hydrus
2:23 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a backdoor cold front?
I,m still looking.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21430
1060. Patrap
2:22 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting luvtogolf:


By calling you "kid" I don't think he was being disrespectful. It is in your handle.


A wu Birther scandal?

Hmmmmmm...........
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128699
1059. MTWX
2:21 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Keep..Rather fat swathe for tomorrow..Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 am CDT Wednesday may 30 2012


Valid 311200z - 011200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Texas/lower MS
River Valley to Tennessee/Ohio River valleys...


...
A considerable late may upper trough will steadily amplify while
otherwise spreading east-southeastward over much of the east-central
Continental U.S. On Thursday. Some storm/mesoscale-driven forecast details are
still uncertain...but a broad area of severe potential will likely
exist to the east-southeast of an eastward moving surface low across
the middle MS valley/lower Ohio Valley...and along/ahead of an
associated east-southeastward moving cold front.


..arklatex/lower MS River Valley to Tennessee/Ohio River valleys and
central/southern Appalachians...
it seems likely than an mesoscale convective system and/or its associated
remnants...including possible convective outflow/an mesoscale convective vortex...will be
early day factors come Thursday morning across the region. This
could be somewhere across the arklatex/Ozarks to the adjacent MS
River Valley. Perhaps even more so than the east-southeast advancing
synoptic cold front...possible outflow/mesoscale convective vortex influences will be the
primary/effective influencing factors that aid subsequent storm
development/reinvigoration into Thursday afternoon. This would be
within a relatively broad moist/potentially unstable pre-cold
frontal warm sector across the Lower/Middle MS River Valley to Tennessee
Valley/perhaps lower Ohio Valley...where pockets of stronger
heating/moderate destabilization should occur Thursday
afternoon/early evening. Damaging winds and some severe hail will be
the primary hazards...although some tornado threat cannot be ruled
out across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity near/east of the surface low
should convective Mode permit.


A severe threat could continue/ultimately reach as far
east-northeast as the Ohio River valley and central/southern
Appalachians vicinity...perhaps even with a nocturnal/early Friday
increase. This would be aided by the onset of a cyclone deepening
phase/trend toward a more neutral tilt upper trough with an
associated strengthening wind field. As such...damaging winds and
some tornado risk could exist in these areas Thursday night/early
Friday on an isolated basis.


I'm just about smack in the middle of the sight risk area for tomorrow, but they only got us a 20% chance of rain... We'll just have to wait to see how it unfolds.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
1058. StormTracker2K
2:20 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting JNCali:
And now a short weather related story..
Started the day hot and humid here in Mid TN yesterday. About 3:00 clouds started gathering providing some nice shade while I mowed the yard, cell phone text message alert went off about time the first thunder happened.. Severe T-Storm alert... Starting pouring and blowing (maybe 30 not too bad) Cold though.. all that air rushing down from 30K feet.. I got thoroughly soaked riding the mower to the nearest tree for some cover. Sitting under the tree the lightning cracked overhead and thought I'd better get out from under the tree maybe.. so I headed for the truck.. Had to turn the heater on it got so cold where it had been in the mid 90's moments prior... Can't wait for Summer!



Going under a tree while in a lightning storm is not smart. Your lucky you didn't get struck as we could have been hearing your demise on ther 6pm news.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1057. K8eCane
2:12 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting stillwaiting:
,a possible trough split and another TC possible off the SE coastline in about a week?



GMAB
(give me a break)
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3207
1055. stillwaiting
2:08 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
This is nothing short of weird..
,a possible trough split and another TC possible off the SE coastline in about a week?
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1054. JNCali
2:08 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
And now a short weather related story..
Started the day hot and humid here in Mid TN yesterday. About 3:00 clouds started gathering providing some nice shade while I mowed the yard, cell phone text message alert went off about time the first thunder happened.. Severe T-Storm alert... Starting pouring and blowing (maybe 30 not too bad) Cold though.. all that air rushing down from 30K feet.. I got thoroughly soaked riding the mower to the nearest tree for some cover. Sitting under the tree the lightning cracked overhead and thought I'd better get out from under the tree maybe.. so I headed for the truck.. Had to turn the heater on it got so cold where it had been in the mid 90's moments prior... Can't wait for Summer!

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
1053. unf97
2:08 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah as that pattern is a wet one for FL during the wet season. Will also need to watchout for a home grown system off the SE US in that pattern.



Yep. We have to watch for those trough splits and that is what occured early last year in the season. Trough splits spawned the development of Bret and Cindy off the SE US coast last season.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1052. Brock31
2:07 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
1000 mb
Member Since: August 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 128
1051. RitaEvac
2:04 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Multiple outflow boundaries in TX, things going bonkers tomm and tomm night
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
1050. StormTracker2K
1:58 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting unf97:
Post 1040

That is an unusually deep trough being depicted by those GFS models going out 7 days for this time of year in early June.

It will be intersting to see if this actually comes close to verifying as we get into next week.


Yeah as that pattern is a wet one for FL during the wet season. Will also need to watchout for a home grown system off the SE US in that pattern.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1049. BrickellBreeze
1:57 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Wait, Beryl strengthend over land?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1048. StormTracker2K
1:55 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


is that a backdoor cold front?


Yup.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1047. unf97
1:55 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Post 1040

That is an unusually deep trough being depicted by those GFS models going out 7 days for this time of year in early June.

It will be intersting to see if this actually comes close to verifying as we get into next week.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1046. CapeFearRising
1:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Beryl, my lawn thanks you.
Member Since: September 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
1045. JohnsIslandJoe
1:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Looks like we got lucky with Beryl here in Charleston. A little wind, a little rain and just a little amount of yard debris to clean up. Could have been much worse.
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1044. GeorgiaStormz
1:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
This is nothing short of weird..


is that a backdoor cold front?
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1043. StormTracker2K
1:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
This is nothing short of weird..


Bring it on as that front is progged to stall over N FL early next week and just dump copious amounts of rain on the northern half of the state.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1042. BrickellBreeze
1:51 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Good Morning

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1041. Patrap
1:51 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
..."upon us all, all, a lil rain must fall, jus a lil rain"...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128699
1040. hydrus
1:48 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
This is nothing short of weird..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21430
1039. SFLWeatherman
1:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Rain and more Rain for me!!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4685
1038. K8eCane
1:46 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting Brock31:


Our rain gauge here at work (In Ogden) read 3.25 inches this morning. That was about 45 minutes ago.


HEYYYYY... hope it dont flood my favorite spot in Ogden...Jackpots Sweepstakes And Games ( although I certainly havent played lately, too broke)
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3207
1037. hydrus
1:40 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 don't call me kid I'm not a kid
#2 yes and when she is in that water she would try to rapidly make a comeback
#3 yes once she leaves that warm water she is dead
#1. Kid is in your handle, and is easier then typing WunderkidCayman every time someone converses with you..#2. Keeper of the Gate is one of the most esteemed people on this blog, and was not belittling you. #3. He is most likely 3 or 4 times older than you are, show some respect..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21430
1036. Brock31
1:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Rain...and lots of it this morning!


Our rain gauge here at work (In Ogden) read 3.25 inches this morning. That was about 45 minutes ago.
Member Since: August 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 128
1035. hydrus
1:33 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
she is done kid thats it warm waters are close to shore after that she will need a sweater
Good morning Keep..Rather fat swathe for tomorrow..Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 am CDT Wednesday may 30 2012


Valid 311200z - 011200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of Texas/lower MS
River Valley to Tennessee/Ohio River valleys...


...
A considerable late may upper trough will steadily amplify while
otherwise spreading east-southeastward over much of the east-central
Continental U.S. On Thursday. Some storm/mesoscale-driven forecast details are
still uncertain...but a broad area of severe potential will likely
exist to the east-southeast of an eastward moving surface low across
the middle MS valley/lower Ohio Valley...and along/ahead of an
associated east-southeastward moving cold front.


..arklatex/lower MS River Valley to Tennessee/Ohio River valleys and
central/southern Appalachians...
it seems likely than an mesoscale convective system and/or its associated
remnants...including possible convective outflow/an mesoscale convective vortex...will be
early day factors come Thursday morning across the region. This
could be somewhere across the arklatex/Ozarks to the adjacent MS
River Valley. Perhaps even more so than the east-southeast advancing
synoptic cold front...possible outflow/mesoscale convective vortex influences will be the
primary/effective influencing factors that aid subsequent storm
development/reinvigoration into Thursday afternoon. This would be
within a relatively broad moist/potentially unstable pre-cold
frontal warm sector across the Lower/Middle MS River Valley to Tennessee
Valley/perhaps lower Ohio Valley...where pockets of stronger
heating/moderate destabilization should occur Thursday
afternoon/early evening. Damaging winds and some severe hail will be
the primary hazards...although some tornado threat cannot be ruled
out across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity near/east of the surface low
should convective Mode permit.


A severe threat could continue/ultimately reach as far
east-northeast as the Ohio River valley and central/southern
Appalachians vicinity...perhaps even with a nocturnal/early Friday
increase. This would be aided by the onset of a cyclone deepening
phase/trend toward a more neutral tilt upper trough with an
associated strengthening wind field. As such...damaging winds and
some tornado risk could exist in these areas Thursday night/early
Friday on an isolated basis.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21430
1034. wunderkidcayman
1:33 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
she is done kid thats it warm waters are close to shore after that she will need a sweater

#1 don't call me kid I'm not a kid
#2 yes and when she is in that water she would try to rapidly make a comeback
#3 yes once she leaves that warm water she is dead
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12163
1033. GeorgiaStormz
1:32 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning. Beryl could become quite a storm when it moves out over the far Atlantic...Our trough is still looking rather potent..


i am hoping the other major models trend more toward that solution, or else the action will be by you and north.
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1032. GeoffreyWPB
1:31 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11279
1031. pcola57
1:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Naval Lab. dropped it yesterday at 0125z..
Thanks GeorgiaStormz for pointing that out.
I usually catch those things :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844
1030. ncstorm
1:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2012
Rain...and lots of it this morning!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15696

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.