Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It looks like Beryl has re-emerged offshore and wants to strengthen again. Would not be surprised to see tropical storm status by the 11pm advisory.

That may be a bit of a stretch is that burst of convection just off the coast isn't actually the center. That is farther inland to the west, but not by much.

We'll probably see this strengthen some over the next few hours, perhaps becoming a tropical storm again by tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should be a weak/mid-grade TS by us, but some models have it becoming a strong TS off the Outer Banks before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone.
Maybe I'll get lucky and get my hurricane Beryl.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
classic

Yes..Truly..:)We are fixin to get pegged with a severe thunderstorm here in Middle TN..
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727. LBAR
Quoting nash28:
Waiting on Beryl in North Charleston now....

No rain yet, but wind is picking up and it is getting muggier by the second.

Any time now Beryl.


Ditto that in Mt. Pleasant! Bring on the rain. It's been a huge disappointment so far.
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Quoting pcola57:
It looks like Beryl has re-emerged offshore and wants to strengthen again. Would not be surprised to see tropical storm status by the 11pm advisory.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Link


Getting a little hairy east of gainesville

Looks like there might be a little rotation
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724. fo
Relative air pressure is 1007.5, but absolute air pressure is 1002.7. Which is used to measure the strength of the system?
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There are now radar estimates of over 2 inches in one hour in Millen, GA and its still pouring buckets!!
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Repost for ScottLincoln

What's the difference between them? I'm guessing they just measure the amount of instability in different parts of the atmosphere.

Also, do you have any helpful links about with information about this kinda stuff (i.e. severe weather and calculations derived from atmospheric soundings to predict weather)? I know you probably learned most of your stuff at school and at the NWS, but if you got any cool links to share, I'd love to check them out


Surface CAPE is just what it is. The CAPE of a parcel starting at the surface layer. (b/w 1000mb to somtimes 850mb is the normally accepted layer. A parcel must start in this layer to be considered surface based.) Most Unstable CAPE is the CAPE from the layer which is most unstable and produces the biggest amount of CAPE.

Think about this: just north of the warm front you sometimes get convetion that produces mainly hail. Why is this? It's because there is a stable layer but above it a large enough unstable layer to produce storms. If you went by surface based CAPE only you wouldn't think any convection was possibly or very weak convection.

Storms come from CAPE in all layers of the atmosphere. Elevated convection like the example above would be more likely to produce hail but surface based storms are more likely to produce damaging winds and tornadoes simply because the stable layer is missing and they can penetrate.

But don't get confused into thinking storms only feed off one form of CAPE or the other. They feed off CAPE from any layer they can.

Hope this helps.
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Beryl looks to be reorganizing once again, notice the new development of bands in the last 2 hours from the SSE out over the Gulf stream.

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Thanks for that. If you got any other papers or links on model performance and biases, feel free to send them my way!



You may find some here
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10938
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Quoting K8eCane:



It has been looking like that since midday. Did one of those models have it as a strong TS by us?

Should be a weak/mid-grade TS by us, but some models have it becoming a strong TS off the Outer Banks before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't even know if Beryl will make it halfway between Savannah and Charleston before reemerging. It seems to be moving just north of due east.



It has been looking like that since midday. Did one of those models have it as a strong TS by us?
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The NWS stopped programming and put on a emergency broadcast saying flash flooding could occur...
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah. Pretty hot here too. Maybe if we get these troughs or upper lows or whatever they are throughout the summer they will keep backing the ridge down and hopefully offer a little rain too. As far as tropical systems it's too soon to tell.


I hate summer. Wish we could just hibernate till fall.
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Repost for ScottLincoln
Quoting ScottLincoln:


CAPE is typcally the more widely-used measure of instability. LI can be easily calculated by hand with a sounding on a skew-T, CAPE not as easily. But CAPE shows instability for the entire atmosphere above where your parcel path begins, telling you more about total instability than just what it would be at the mid-levels.

There isn't just one measure of CAPE, though, so be careful. I typically look at both surface-based and most-unstable CAPE the most, particularly using them in comparison to one another.

What's the difference between them? I'm guessing they just measure the amount of instability in different parts of the atmosphere.

Also, do you have any helpful links about with information about this kinda stuff (i.e. severe weather and calculations derived from atmospheric soundings to predict weather)? I know you probably learned most of your stuff at school and at the NWS, but if you got any cool links to share, I'd love to check them out
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Storm report from my city...

05/29/2012 0729 PM

Herndon, Jenkins County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Water 3 foot across State Road 17 in Herndon.
Additional flooding on 17 near Birdsville Road.
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A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 800 PM EDT
for southeastern Palm Beach County...

At 723 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Boca
Raton equestrian center... moving east at 15 mph.
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I don't even know if Beryl will make it halfway between Savannah and Charleston before reemerging. It seems to be moving just north of due east.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
709 epic username.
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709. fo
I am next to what I think are the remains of Beryl's "eye"/center of circulation. Air pressure-1007.6, just started rising. Total rain today: 2.46 in. Wind is starting to go calm.
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Quoting Grothar:


No. A lot will have to change. I am looking more towards the weekend. Conditions are a little too hostile. We are expecting a big storm here in the next few minutes. Have you looked at the radar?


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Quoting K8eCane:


I have been hoping you guys in Fla get as much rain as you can stand


The wind here is strong!
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Ok so it was just pouring so hard that my street was a river... I passed some streams and they were all covering the roads and were flowing very quickly... And yet there is no Flash Flood Warning for my area
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On radar it looks like Beryl is moving due East!
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It's about to get hairy around my way!


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675 washingtonian115: 3 of the 4 pictures look like pancakes.

Just good public relations: folks'd get all up in arms if flying saucers looked all mechanical 'n' stuff.
Compare the ooohs & ahhhs they get to the disdain for windturbines as "blots on the landscape."
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And it looks like Beryl is packing more precip than many forecasted.
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Quoting gator23:
we are getting hammered in Gainesville right now!


I have been hoping you guys in Fla get as much rain as you can stand
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we are getting hammered in Gainesville right now!
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
To me Temps in the 90s and dew points around 70 is Hot not Warm, especially since I work out in this Texas heat. I am glad some areas of Florida and Georgia got decent rains. Texas needs a tropicaly system before the end of Summer but not sure if there will be one with the High Pressure over Mexico and West Texas.


Yeah. Pretty hot here too. Maybe if we get these troughs or upper lows or whatever they are throughout the summer they will keep backing the ridge down and hopefully offer a little rain too. As far as tropical systems it's too soon to tell.
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Waiting on Beryl in North Charleston now....

No rain yet, but wind is picking up and it is getting muggier by the second.

Any time now Beryl.
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In the past hour we went from 3 inches to over 4 inches for the day rain is falling fast and furious here!!
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Quoting wxgeek723:
If the name Gordon is retired this year, I say we replace his name with Ganondorf.

YES!
Or maybe even Goofy..
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18Z HWRF
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14636
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Way south of where the NHC has it emerging.


More inline with the ECMWF.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Hey Red,
Hows the weather on your side.......

Well its hot!
Not just normal hot but very hot. We had about 40/c (100/F plus) last week,very high for May, even the Spanish locals noticed it, then some rain that evaporated before it got chance to dampen the ground.
Then it got hot again and its about 35/C in the days now and down to about 23/C at nights.
No rain planed before about the end of September.
Added to this not much work about and stocks crashing like hailstones.
Even the Cold Damp Island, (UK,) has had weather at about 28/C. I'm sure you can guess it into "F"
I'll keep you posted if anything out of the ordinary occurs, like a shower!
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There is an awesome line of storms coming into western MA right now... I just wish they'd hold together long enough to reach me, but they most likely won't...
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmmm? It might rain...ummm...somewhere? Lol.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
224 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER IN A STRING OF WARM AND DRY MAY DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY TOMORROW. LOW RAIN CHANCES COME
BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING UP NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AREA
WIDE ON THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SOME DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO RAIN COVERAGE...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN WILL PROBABLY END
UP ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS FURTHER
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

LONG TERM...WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY. STILL
TO EARLY ON INCLUDE STRONG OR SEVERE TSTMS ALTHOUGH SPC DOES HAVE
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS.
To me Temps in the 90s and dew points around 70 is Hot not Warm, especially since I work out in this Texas heat. I am glad some areas of Florida and Georgia got decent rains. Texas needs a tropicaly system before the end of Summer but not sure if there will be one with the High Pressure over Mexico and West Texas.
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Beryl looks to pop out around Charleston if continues on the same path. That is definitely south of where they were predicting...
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If the name Gordon is retired this year, I say we replace his name with Ganondorf.
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Quoting PlazaRed:

I would say that photo has been "optimized with photo shop but even so its still a trifle stunning.
Those lenticular clouds you posted really wind up the uninitiated.
So we have 2 named storms and still a day to go before it all starts on the wind up and down to the end of the world as some may think they know it.
Oh Evening Everybody!


Hey Red,
Hows the weather on your side.......
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Well, in the meantime, some pretty big storms continue to roll through the Northeast.



National weather service confirmed 3.50 inch hail in upstate New York... a couple spots of 6-8 inch rainfall as well.. the main line just began moving through here about 15 minutes ago.. best storms since Irene.

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Quoting aspectre:
PalouseValley,Washington: where the landscapes resembles masterfully composed paintings


I would say that photo has been "optimized with photo shop but even so its still a trifle stunning.
Those lenticular clouds you posted really wind up the uninitiated.
So we have 2 named storms and still a day to go before it all starts on the wind up and down to the end of the world as some may think they know it.
Oh Evening Everybody!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like Beryl will re-emerge somewhere between Savannah and Charleston.

Way south of where the NHC has it emerging.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Hmmmm? It might rain...ummm...somewhere? Lol.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
224 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER IN A STRING OF WARM AND DRY MAY DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY TOMORROW. LOW RAIN CHANCES COME
BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING UP NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AREA
WIDE ON THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER SOME DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO RAIN COVERAGE...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN WILL PROBABLY END
UP ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS FURTHER
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

LONG TERM...WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY. STILL
TO EARLY ON INCLUDE STRONG OR SEVERE TSTMS ALTHOUGH SPC DOES HAVE
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS.
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Looks like Beryl will re-emerge somewhere between Savannah and Charleston.
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Hi to all of your Weather Junkies!! Another year of lurking for me! Any recommendations for an affordable at home weather station, wireless preferably? I don't know how to choose!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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