Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is there a trailing cold front?


yes , so hail and wind would still be possible.
In areas with more shear, however, the storms will move quickly enough to not choke themselves and to organize, and could even carry a tornado threat.
This looks to set up best in TN and KY, but with me in GA, i wish it would trend south.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Surface CAPE is just what it is. The CAPE of a parcel starting at the surface layer. (b/w 1000mb to somtimes 850mb is the normally accepted layer. A parcel must start in this layer to be considered surface based.) Most Unstable CAPE is the CAPE from the layer which is most unstable and produces the biggest amount of CAPE.

Think about this: just north of the warm front you sometimes get convetion that produces mainly hail. Why is this? It's because there is a stable layer but above it a large enough unstable layer to produce storms. If you went by surface based CAPE only you wouldn't think any convection was possibly or very weak convection.

Storms come from CAPE in all layers of the atmosphere. Elevated convection like the example above would be more likely to produce hail but surface based storms are more likely to produce damaging winds and tornadoes simply because the stable layer is missing and they can penetrate.

But don't get confused into thinking storms only feed off one form of CAPE or the other. They feed off CAPE from any layer they can.

Hope this helps.
Yeah that helps, thanks.

But what is the point of MUCAPE if you don't know what part of the atmosphere it's measuring? From what I read in your post, it's a measure of the most unstable part of the atmosphere, but MUCAPE is just a number...that doesn't tell me anything about where the most unstable layer is, it just tells me how unstable it is.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting K8eCane:


I know what you mean. I dont want her to either but it may put her further east from us if she does


Sorry Nash, its every man for himself...JK JK
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Quoting nash28:


well, I really don't want her popping off south of me in Charleston. Means more wind, strengthening and the rains as it rides the coast.



I know what you mean. I dont want her to either but it may put her further east from us if she does
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According to 10 meter winds, satellite and radar is deceiving. Beryl's center has been moving northeast all day.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It really is amazing... I storms retired since 2000:
Iris (2001)
Isidore (2002)
Isabel (2003)
Ivan (2004)
Ike (2008)
Igor (2010)
Irene (2011)

Isaac (2012)?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It really is amazing... I storms retired since 2000:
Iris (2001)
Isidore (2002)
Isabel (2003)
Ivan (2004)
Ike (2008)
Igor (2010)
Irene (2011)


To make it more impressive, 2 I names replaced since 2000 have been retired... Isidore & Ike, Ivan & Igor
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Quoting wxgeek723:


He's the last surviving I veteran too.

It really is amazing... I storms retired since 2000:
Iris (2001)
Isidore (2002)
Isabel (2003)
Ivan (2004)
Ike (2008)
Igor (2010)
Irene (2011)
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
New GFS doesnt look too bad for SE, more for Ohio valley.
Is there a trailing cold front?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting nash28:


Appears as the actual center is still in GA. Barely.


Dont you mean Beryl-ly

*throws tomato at self*
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Quoting K8eCane:


thats what i thought. i really thinks shes diving in before the nc/sc line


well, I really don't want her popping off south of me in Charleston. Means more wind, strengthening and the rains as it rides the coast.

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
Quoting Jedkins01:



I haven't heard any local forecaster mention anything about a low pressure system coming up into Central Florida, and there isn't any vorticity in the Caribbean. My guess is its models "convective feedback" that is producing low pressure systems from the Caribbean and moving them our way due to the convective blow-ups down there lately, but in reality there isn't any vort with any of it or developing with any of it. It's simply deep tropical moisture converging over warm tropical waters.



No surprise forecasts keep decreasing rainfall chances the next several days, I guess that whole heavy beneficial rainfall thing was a mirage for Tampa Bay, and with dry air/subsidence forecast to return, the rain season really isn't here yet either. And so the extreme drought shall continue...
Idk it depends on which model they use to input into their forecast. Usually when there is moisture in the NW Caribbean and an approaching trough that moisture gets pulled up. It is usually after the front clears when we get the subsidence as high pressure builds behind it.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting nash28:


Appears as the actual center is still in GA. Barely.


thats what i thought. i really thinks shes diving in before the nc/sc line
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Quoting K8eCane:
is beryl in ga or sc right now?

It's in Georgia, but about to enter South Carolina.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
New GFS doesnt look too bad for SE, more for Ohio valley.

nashville says:
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW ALL THE INGREDIENTS
COME TOGETHER...BUT A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM.


and huntsville says tornado threat should stay up in TN and KY.
I hope that between now and the event, the models trend more southward.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
Quoting K8eCane:
is beryl in ga or sc right now?


Appears as the actual center is still in GA. Barely.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
is beryl in ga or sc right now?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think Issac has the best chance... Just because it's the I name.


He's the last surviving I veteran too.
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762. Skyepony (Mod)
Hispaniola is flooding again..

Heavy rains drenching the Caribbean island of Hispaniola have caused mudslides and floods that killed up to nine people in Haiti and forced more than 11,000 people to flee their homes in the neighboring Dominican Republic, authorities said Wednesday. Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste of Haiti's Civil Protection Office said nine people died in the southern and western parts of the country. The deaths included a 6-year-old child and a woman killed by landslides in the capital of Port-au-Prince and four who drowned in rivers outside the city, she said. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs gave a lower toll from three days of heavy storms at the start of the rainy season. It said in a statement that only six people had died since Monday. High water and heavy rain are creating problems for the nearly 500,000 people still without homes in the aftermath of Haiti's 2010 earthquake. In the Dominican Republic, officials said there had not been any reports of deaths or injuries, but said about 11,150 people had been evacuated from their homes. Emergency office spokesman Jose Luis German said nearly 3,000 homes were flooded when rivers and streams spilled from their banks in the northern province of Puerto Plata and some central and southeastern towns. He said 23 of the country's 32 provinces were at risk for flooding in the coming days since rains were forecast to continue for the rest of the week.


Quoting fo:


The name low country is deceiving..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
Quoting Jedkins01:



Not in Tampa Bay, we haven't gotten jack ****


It rained most of the day where I was in Largo
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Wife just texted and said rain finally here from Beryl in Ladson.

Not sure how we're gonna possibly get 5+ inches of rain from this, but I guess we'll see.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
685 PlazaRed: I would say that [PalouseValley] photo has been "optimized" with photo shop, but even so its still a trifle stunning.

Possibly, but only to better capture the occasional reality. There are many places in Washington that transport you, with the right kind of sunlight during the right time of day, from everyday life to fairyland.
Not saying it doesn't happen nearly everywhere, every once in a while.
However, such transport happens fairly frequently within the PacificNorthwest's SubtropicalRainforest to somewhat far inland. The closer one is to the rainforest or to the Cascade glaciers, the more frequently it happens. The rainforest and near-glacial areas themselves are magic.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
NOGAPS has been fairly consistent on the last few runs with low pressure developing in the SE GOM and moving it towards the West Coast of FL. Do you think it depends on how far south the trough makes it as to whether we get development or not?



I haven't heard any local forecaster mention anything about a low pressure system coming up into Central Florida, and there isn't any vorticity in the Caribbean. My guess is its models "convective feedback" that is producing low pressure systems from the Caribbean and moving them our way due to the convective blow-ups down there lately, but in reality there isn't any vort with any of it or developing with any of it. It's simply deep tropical moisture converging over warm tropical waters.



No surprise forecasts keep decreasing rainfall chances the next several days, I guess that whole heavy beneficial rainfall thing was a mirage for Tampa Bay, and with dry air/subsidence forecast to return, the rain season really isn't here yet either. And so the extreme drought shall continue...
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757. flsky
Sunscreen in the Sky? global warming solution?
Link
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00z Best Track.

AL, 02, 2012053000, , BEST, 0, 319N, 817W, 25, 1004

Link
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think the name Debby will be retired this year.

I think Issac has the best chance... Just because it's the I name.
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I think the name Debby will be retired this year.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
753. Skyepony (Mod)



Beryl needs to hurry back to water. I miss all the dvorak numbers..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
752. fo
Quoting Skyepony:


Relative pressure. It's adjusted for your altitude. I thought you were closer to sea level?




>
The actual elevation is 93ft, plus 25ft above ground.
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I shall agree. What a wild track that was.
It was nasty at my place..From two Gordons....thats it, i,m writing our Congressman.:)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
If rains keep dying out like this at Tampa Bay, then I'd say you got an Omen on yalls head, and something big and bad is coming your way soon.....and it's gonna blow down the shield in such a way that Tampa will never be recognized as it once was.


Thankfully science doesn't pay much attention to Omens...

;)
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Quoting K8eCane:


I have been hoping you guys in Fla get as much rain as you can stand



Not in Tampa Bay, we haven't gotten jack ****
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Quoting hydrus:
Gordon ( in my harmless opinion ) should have been retired in 94.

Agree there. How any storm responsible for over a thousand deaths doesn't get retired is beyond me...

As for a replacement name, I'd have to go with Gandalf. :P
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746. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
Quoting wxgeek723:
If the name Gordon is retired this year, I say we replace his name with Ganondorf.

^^This.
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Fairly nasty storms for this area. They are weakening now. But there was a complete downpour for 30+ minutes, some road flooding in low spots, loud thunder and localized hail. When I say downpour, I mean step outside, count "1-mississippi" then step back, and you are dripping.
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Quoting hydrus:
Gordon ( in my harmless opinion ) should have been retired in 94.


I shall agree. What a wild track that was.
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Quoting wxgeek723:
If the name Gordon is retired this year, I say we replace his name with Ganondorf.
Gordon ( in my harmless opinion ) should have been retired in 94.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here is a great site for computer models: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html


Thanks! Kaspersky likes it better too!
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Quoting winter123:

Beryl looks pretty good on visible satellite. But it looks awful on Radar. We shall see, but I doubt it. I give it 20% chance of redevelopment.


For one, it can't redevelop if it hasn't dissipated lol.

Another, Beryl's rotation is still strong and it's very impressive to have any sort of convection at all for being overland since Saturday. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are quite adamant on restrengthening Beryl to at least a 50mph TS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
738. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting fo:
Relative air pressure is 1007.5, but absolute air pressure is 1002.7. Which is used to measure the strength of the system?


Relative pressure. It's adjusted for your altitude. I thought you were closer to sea level?


Quoting leelee75k:
Hi to all of your Weather Junkies!! Another year of lurking for me! Any recommendations for an affordable at home weather station, wireless preferably? I don't know how to choose!


I've got this Tycon. Wireless, been pretty problem free for a few years now. On steep sale here for $110.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
Quoting snow2fire:
Phishing URL on Wund???

I was trying to look at Beryl computer models from Wund and was taken to another web page:

... starts with quarantorbrittlesessremedy …

Kaspersky didn’t like it at all put up a bunch of RED warnings (malicious phishing URL)… that’s the first time I’ve had that reaction from Kaspersky
Here is a great site for computer models: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting pcola57:

Beryl looks pretty good on visible satellite. But it looks awful on Radar. We shall see, but I doubt it. I give it 20% chance of redevelopment.
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Phishing URL on Wund???

I was trying to look at Beryl computer models from Wund and was taken to another web page:

... starts with quarantorbrittlesessremedy …

Kaspersky didn’t like it at all put up a bunch of RED warnings (malicious phishing URL)… that’s the first time I’ve had that reaction from Kaspersky
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That may be a bit of a stretch is that burst of convection just off the coast isn't actually the center. That is farther inland to the west, but not by much.

We'll probably see this strengthen some over the next few hours, perhaps becoming a tropical storm again by tomorrow morning.
Oh ok I was caught looking at the visible again and noticed the blow-up of convection. Looks can be deceiving.
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Just looking at this image below........ Wow. What a wicked set up for heavy rain along the SE and Eastern Seaboard.

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You wouldn't know from the satellite that we've gotten nothing from Beryl here in Charleston. Not even rain yet this evening. Ditto those above that it's been disappointing so far. My CSA farm could use the water :)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It looks like Beryl has re-emerged offshore and wants to strengthen again. Would not be surprised to see tropical storm status by the 11pm advisory.

That may be a bit of a stretch is that burst of convection just off the coast isn't actually the center. That is farther inland to the west, but not by much.

We'll probably see this strengthen some over the next few hours, perhaps becoming a tropical storm again by tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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