Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting wxgeek723:
All reasonable male I names I could find in case Isaac departs:

-Ira/Irah
-Icarus
-Ichabod
-Inigo
-Irving
-Iago
-Immanuel
-Ingmar
-Ivar

Quite frankly most of these names suck lmao, so let's all hope Isaac stays on the list.
Maybe Ion or Ishver.
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larger image http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/an im_nerc.gif
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time for some hurricane trivia

Name the only 2 storms to have their names retired, without causing any direct fatalities
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New detailed tropical update on my blog...I keep pumping these out daily as I will do during hurricane season...enjoy and let me know what you think....

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Look out OKC, you're not in the warning but the storm will hit you if it holds together which it should.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 827 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PIEDMONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDMOND...YUKON...BETHANY...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...
NICHOLS HILLS...
PIEDMONT AND RICHLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 140 AND 148.
INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE HIDDEN BY RAIN AND YOU MAY NOT SEE IT. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 9744 3540 9759 3558 9793 3573 9783
3573 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 301DEG 22KT 3562 9780

$$
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 827 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PIEDMONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDMOND...YUKON...BETHANY...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...
NICHOLS HILLS...
PIEDMONT AND RICHLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 140 AND 148.
INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE HIDDEN BY RAIN AND YOU MAY NOT SEE IT. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31343
Increasing tornado potential...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31343
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not good at all. Storm chasers have reported very large hail and extremely strong damaging winds on both of these supercells...the two will merge...right over Oklahoma City.

From a storm chaser in the area: "So hide your trees, hide your fence, hide your roof...and hide your flowers, cause they damaging everything up heah"



Several storms with huge hail

* AT 803 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL
UP TO GRAPEFRUIT SIZE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PIEDMONT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM LOCATED IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA CITY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE METRO AS
WELL.

*AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL
UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF DUNDEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You can actually get banned for "feeding the trolls" this year so I wouldn't quote them...at all.


I said all I needed to say. Now, back to the weather.

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Not good at all. Storm chasers have reported very large hail and extremely strong damaging winds on both of these supercells...the two will merge...right over Oklahoma City.

From a storm chaser in the area: "So hide your trees, hide your fence, hide your roof...and hide your flowers, cause they damaging everything up heah"


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31343
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah. The farther south it emerges, the farther east it will be when it passes us. It doesn't really matter though, the effects here will be the same.

May give it for time to strengthen though.


well that wouldnt be good
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0Z




East....
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14257
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Quoting K8eCane:


if she comes out savannah she will go on out east of us a good bit?

Yeah. The farther south it emerges, the farther east it will be when it passes us. It doesn't really matter though, the effects here will be the same.

May give it for time to strengthen though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31343
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You can actually get banned for "feeding the trolls" this year so I wouldn't quote them...at all.


if she comes out savannah she will go on out east of us a good bit?
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Quoting HurricaneKing:



You can find it on a hand drawn skew T by guesstimation (been there done that. not fun) but most computer programs that work with skew T's will tell the layer and more so much more lol. It's all about the skew T. Hell on there you need to look if your CAPE is tall and skinny or short and fat. That has an effect on updraft accelerations. Frankly 99% of the time you're just looking at a program for the skew T's and the hodographs (shear).

Ingredients for Storms: High CAPE low CIN and lift/moisture.

Then for Shits and giggles shear: Below 10 m/s pulse convection. 10-20m/s Multicellular probably cold pool dominated. And over 20 m/s you're probably looking at supercells.

For my mesoscale meteorology class last semester that's how every lab began. Finding the places where storms could form. Then finding storm type using the shear rule. The using other parameters finding where tornadoes, hail, high winds would be. The last lab we had to do an SPC outlook with see text all the way to high risk (they picked a fun day though we were never given the date) and then had to do the spc style discussion.
Alright thanks. That's really cool stuff, if you don't mind me asking, where did you go to school?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
You can actually get banned for "feeding the trolls" this year so I wouldn't quote them...at all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31343
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


I'm just pointing out the obvious. You're a nuisance. This is why WU is turning into a troll infested blog because of kids like you.


MEOW!!!! Somebody needs a nap!!
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Funny you all are talking about Issac..a matter of fact I think that Issac may be a hurricane...

EDIT.Power keeps flickering on and off.
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Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Don't you have something else better to do? Its annoying scrolling down, and always seeing this type rubbish on here! Go create your own blog and stuff all this trash in there!


Better my funny posts than obvious trolls who are circumventing bans....
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All reasonable male I names I could find in case Isaac departs:

-Ira/Irah
-Icarus
-Ichabod
-Inigo
-Irving
-Iago
-Immanuel
-Ingmar
-Ivar

Quite frankly most of these names suck lmao, so let's all hope Isaac stays on the list.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Ingrid?

I think we have that one... It replaced Iris I think
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Oh God Nash don't open up that can of worms. Lookout the Lips==ts is about to hit the fan.
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Iago and Ignatius


Ingrid?
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Iago and Ignatius
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Derived from ATCF data for TropicalDepressionBeryl on 30May12amGMT

Looks like Beryl will once again become seaborne near Savannah,Georgia.
The previous mapping from 29May6pmGMT
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Quoting yqt1001:


They've already exhausted all the scary Russian names...they got replaced after their first use. :/

Might need to move on to a more fear-inducing language.

Though names are supposed to come from the 3 colonial powers (France, UK and Spain) but we'll probably have to move onto the minors like Dutch, Portuguese and Swedish names. Eventually into corrupt Latin versions of native American names. :P


only I names I can think of would be Ira and Isis
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757 flsky: Sunscreen in the Sky? global warming solution? [titanium dioxide balloons]

And where is the helium gonna come from? The (former) US helium reserve isn't nearly enough; especially now that it's been privatized just in time for skyrocketing prices due to new industrial uses.
And oil&gas drilling in the US produces nearly the entire world supply of helium.
The only other realistic alternative supply is to await the arrival and acceptance of commercial hydrogen-to-helium fusion powerplants, which have been "30years in the future" since the first A-bomb was exploded in 1945.
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I am nominating TS beryl the mostly likely to succeed in breaking droughts without causing to many problems Storm of the Year.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


and Ian replaces Igor on the 2016 list

you are right though, not many "I" names left that I can think of


They've already exhausted all the scary Russian names...they got replaced after their first use. :/

Might need to move on to a more fear-inducing language.

Though names are supposed to come from the 3 colonial powers (France, UK and Spain) but we'll probably have to move onto the minors like Dutch, Portuguese and Swedish names. Eventually into corrupt Latin versions of native American names. :P
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I like the SREF:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9718
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah that helps, thanks.

But what is the point of MUCAPE if you don't know what part of the atmosphere it's measuring? From what I read in your post, it's a measure of the most unstable part of the atmosphere, but MUCAPE is just a number...that doesn't tell me anything about where the most unstable layer is, it just tells me how unstable it is.



You can find it on a hand drawn skew T by guesstimation (been there done that. not fun) but most computer programs that work with skew T's will tell the layer and more so much more lol. It's all about the skew T. Hell on there you need to look if your CAPE is tall and skinny or short and fat. That has an effect on updraft accelerations. Frankly 99% of the time you're just looking at a program for the skew T's and the hodographs (shear).

Ingredients for Storms: High CAPE low CIN and lift/moisture.

Then for Shits and giggles shear: Below 10 m/s pulse convection. 10-20m/s Multicellular probably cold pool dominated. And over 20 m/s you're probably looking at supercells.

For my mesoscale meteorology class last semester that's how every lab began. Finding the places where storms could form. Then finding storm type using the shear rule. The using other parameters finding where tornadoes, hail, high winds would be. The last lab we had to do an SPC outlook with see text all the way to high risk (they picked a fun day though we were never given the date) and then had to do the spc style discussion.
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Quoting CharlestonTigress:


Hurricane Icarus would be spectacular.


I think we oughta have a Hurricane Lipshitz.

Could you imagine this place??

"Lipshitz is moving WNW now."

LOL!!!
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Quoting CharlestonTigress:


Hurricane Icarus would be spectacular.


It would probably get too close to the sun and get sheared apart lol
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794. Skyepony (Mod)
New Mexico is battling another epic wildfire. Looks like two towns were saved today.
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They should start giving hurricanes a first and last name.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Are either of those official?

Edit, nevermind, I see we've agreed on Irma.


and Ian replaces Igor on the 2016 list

you are right though, not many "I" names left that I can think of
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Are there even any male I names left? Irah? Icarus? At this point we'll have to start using Japanese names or something lol


Hurricane Icarus would be spectacular.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ian.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Irma.

Are either of those official?

Edit, nevermind, I see we've agreed on Irma.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Has a replacement for Irene been announced?


Irma
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788. Skyepony (Mod)
Heat wave in Pakistan. Expecting up to 50ºC/122ºF.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Has a replacement for Irene been announced?

Irma.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Has a replacement for Irene been announced?

Irma.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31343
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31343
Quoting wxgeek723:
Are there even any male I names left? Irah? Icarus? At this point we'll have to start using Japanese names or something lol

Has a replacement for Irene been announced?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to 10 meter winds, satellite and radar is deceiving. Beryl's center has been moving northeast all day.


According to Best Track,it's moving more ENE.

Link
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Are there even any male I names left? Irah? Icarus? At this point we'll have to start using Japanese names or something lol
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is there a trailing cold front?


yes , so hail and wind would still be possible.
In areas with more shear, however, the storms will move quickly enough to not choke themselves and to organize, and could even carry a tornado threat.
This looks to set up best in TN and KY, but with me in GA, i wish it would trend south.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9718

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.