Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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New models keep the worst weather N of the SE.
Oh, well.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Some big-time heat is expected across the eastern 80% of the nation next week, with the worst expected in parts of the Deep South. Even the majority of Alaska is expected to get in on the, er, fun:

hot

Welcome to summer!
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The big picture...

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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Some of these storms are really beastly this evening!



And the risk just goes up tomorrow!



I must be sitting on my hands, I looked at the SPC Sunday and Monday, the severe percentages were around 5%
things do change with the weather!
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975. CapnK
CoC Beryl (near as I can tell) passing over my marina this AM at sunrise. Took some photos of the grey with blue bits poking thru, will post them later this morning.

Not a bad night, first/initial band had perhaps 20-25mph wind and heavy rain for just a few minutes. After that it was fairly 'untropical'. Good for sleeping on the boat! :)
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
interesting tropical wave east of the southern windward islands. there is a mid level level circulation albeit a weak one. conditions a very hostile for any form of development. this wave could be a trigger mechanism for the already unstable conditions in the west and northwest caribbean. one thing for sure is that the wave which is enhanced by a ULL to it's north east will bring rainy and thundery conditions to the southern winwards late during the forecast.
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Morning,
It raining hard with a wind from the SE at 20+30 here on the Cape Fear Coast. Pressure is 29.70 and falling. Should be over with in a few hours.
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The end of the 0z GFS run has the ghost of Beryl on it :D

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Good chance of severe weather today:



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Was 1004mb at 11:00 PM.

5:00 AM 35MPH 1001mb Ene at 14 MPH
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Beryl strength over land.ERYL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
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Good morning, everyone

Just in from a night's fishing and checking out the blogs. Gotta tell you though...not being a weather person and trying to decipher some of the things you guys/gals talk about can be a challenge and a half!

A great place to unwind!

Lindy
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W5 Denton TX 70 dBZ 42,000 ft. 66 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.75 in. 33 knots NW (321)
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Experimenting with radar, guessing as a persistent TVS heads for me.





Oh look,

222 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 AM CDT

* AT 222 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES NORTH OF SANGER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SANGER AND KRUM AROUND 230 AM...
RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH AROUND 235 AM...
RAY ROBERTS PARK ISLE DU BOIS...PILOT POINT AND JUSTIN AROUND 240
AM...
AUBREY...DENTON...CORRAL CITY AND NORTHLAKE AROUND 245 AM...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 468 AND 497...
I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 72 AND 85...
I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 447 AND 466.
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That TVS has been constant for at least 20 minutes.

Y4 69 dBZ 34,000 ft. 64 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.50 in. 31 knots NW (320)
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Derived from ATCF data for TropicalDepressionBeryl on 30May6amGMT:
MaxSusWinds have increased from 25knots to 30knots
MinimumPressure has decreased from 1004millibars to 1002millibars
The Northeasternmost dot on the connected lines is TDBeryl's most recent ATCF position, 32.7n80.6w

Looks like Beryl is heading toward NorthCarolina.
The previous mapping from 30May12amGMT
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TVS north of Denton, TX.


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949 Bern99: Well, here's a quote from the Ars Technica article about it: "the radioactivity caused by the cesium was about 30 times below that caused naturally by radioactive potassium. So, the tuna don't present a health threat to anyone involved."
The radiation level is ~4 Becquerels per kilogram (Bq/kg), from one article I read. The average banana has 15 Bq of radioactive potassium...


And a kilogram of bananas doses at ~130Bq... which doesn't have much to do with anything*.
The levels cited are found in bluefin caught on the American side of the Pacific, after the bluefin have diluted their contamination load both through normal growth and normal metabolic elimination while crossing the ocean. It'd be higher in those on the Asian side.

Bluefin flesh is so highly valued that trade is worldwide: ie the industry flies the fish from the first-market port to wherever the price is the highest.
And there is no point-of-origin labeling required or voluntarily given out. After the first-market port, wholesale buyers don't care where the bluefin came from -- certainly not enough to attempt any sort of verification even if they were to be told something -- making it highly unlikely that the retailer would know or wanna know. So the sashimi / sushi topping could easily be more radioactive than a consumer would personally think of as safe.

My own view is that anything that can scare off bluefin buyers is a positive for the species' survival, and for the bluefin industry in the long run.

* Even if the banana-scale were as applicable to real-life exposure to radioactive industrial waste as folks like to pretend.
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Good night fellow bloggers
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
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Quoting originalLT:
Where did everyone go?

I'm still up. How are you?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
Where did everyone go?
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Quoting aspectre:
926 nofailsafe [to 923&924 nigel20]: You behind a proxy server? Images are getting redirected through digiceljamaica.

Might not be a friendly; my antiMalware ain't lettin' an image through.

My friend was using it on Saturday, so maybe he was using that proxy thing...i think it's working now
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
951. Skyepony (Mod)
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(click to enlarge)
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Fukushima Update:

Top Cancer Doctor: Irresponsible to say cesium in California bluefin tuna is nothing to worry about — You have radioactive material in fish, which is being eaten by people (VIDEO)



Well, here's a quote from the Ars Technica article about it: "the radioactivity caused by the cesium was about 30 times below that caused naturally by radioactive potassium. So, the tuna don't present a health threat to anyone involved."

The radiation level is ~4 Becquerels per kilogram (Bq/kg), from one article I read. The average banana has 15 Bq of radioactive potassium - I'm not sure what the amount naturally occurring in tuna is, though I did see a mention of ~350Bq/kg somewhere. I go with the "nothing to worry about" comment. :-)
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1225 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 115 AM EDT

* AT 1223 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
BROOKDALE...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BROOKDALE AND ORANGEBURG

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Goodnight everyone.

Same to you Dean!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
933 TropicalAnalystwx13: What is invest A?

Where on the blog comments are you seeing "invest A"?
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934 sunlinepr: Dr. Michael Harbut, director of the Environmental Cancer Program at Wayne State University's Karmanos Cancer Institute in Detroit: Irresponsible to say cesium in California bluefin tuna is nothing to worry about: You have radioactive material in fish, which is being eaten by people
Japanese scientists say radioactive substances from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant may have been
[cycling] around the globe...about [every] 40 days.

Worldwide, bluefin is nearly an endangered species: it is an endangered species in the Mediterranean.
People who eat bluefin should be jailed. Those who sell it should be jailed permanently along with those who trawl or longline for bluefin. The owners of those fishing-boats should be fishbait.
Sadly, given the political realities, a little radioactivity might be the only thing the bluefin has going for its continued survival. But then, considering the knuckleheads who have continued to drive up commercial demand for bluefin flesh...
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Goodnight everyone.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Do tell, what are you implying/meaning by this?
I have observed NHC updates for years, and you will notice that they don't show short term or recent sudden change in movement into the new update, for obvious reasons, because it may be a wobble or short term motion alone.

The NHC goes for a more General outlook on the storm, and tries to not pinpoint too much of the simple and very small details. If it were to do so, it would make them much less dependable to the public. The storm would be in a position at one point of the day, and then wobbles and the NHC completely changes everything to match that, would probably make people like, National Coast Guards and other people in power(that are possibly in the way of such a storm), Unhappy and untrustworthy toward the NHC.
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Sorry about that here is a link to those La Nina/El Nino years. Link

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Models have been thinking more mischieve as we go into hurricane season. May get Chris by mid-June. But afterwards, I imagine activity might drop off for about two weeks. Till possibly Mid-July.

If activity doesn't drop off, we maybe looking at those forecast numbers being WAY off by Peak time.
Still imagine activity will decline though...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Very long term out, but look at this frontal boundary being portrayed by the 12z ECMWF by the 8th of June. Ripe for a trough split, we'll see what happens and if anything can come out of it.

Models have been thinking more mischieve as we go into hurricane season. May get Chris by mid-June. But afterwards, I imagine activity might drop off for about two weeks. Till possibly Mid-July.
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Very long term out, but look at this frontal boundary being portrayed by the 12z ECMWF by the 8th of June. Ripe for a trough split, we'll see what happens and if anything can come out of it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting aspectre:
Anyone else get the feeling that the NHCAdvisory's storm positions are too heavily weighted in favor of what they've been seeing on the storm-prediction models?



Do tell, what are you implying/meaning by this?
I have observed NHC updates for years, and you will notice that they don't show short term or recent sudden change in movement into the new update, for obvious reasons, because it may be a wobble or short term motion alone.
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Going to be a wet one for ENC

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926 nofailsafe [to 923&924 nigel20]: You behind a proxy server? Images are getting redirected through digiceljamaica.

Might not be a friendly; my antiMalware ain't lettin' an image through.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


It rained most of the day where I was in Largo



Yeah it rained here too but a quarter to a half inch of rain doesn't mean anything living in a wet climate with a 10 inch deficit right now, let's put things into perspective, we needed those 4 to 6 inch amounts they had a couple counties north to make a difference. Unfortunately there is absolutely no sign that we will receive a period producing that kind of rain, and the first week of June looks abnormally dry, dominated mostly once again by dry climate weather, that is: strong upper ridging, the deficit looks like it will continue to grow once again during the short term, unfortunately.
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What is invest A?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32832
Anyone else get the feeling that the NHCAdvisory's storm positions are too heavily weighted in favor of what they've been seeing on the storm-prediction models?
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906 HurricaneDean07: ...ADVISORY NUMBER 17... NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI 1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012
[snip] 0300 UTC [snip] MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Central pressure dropped.


But not since the 30May12amGMT ATCF: AL, 02, 2012053000 [snip] 319N, 817W, 25, 1004, TD
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Quoting sunlinepr:

That really is one of the more interesting movement of storms I've seen.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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