Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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If you like Tuna, well....may want to find a new fish to eat

Or all fish...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
79. 7544
hmm morning all beryl still doing good

could we see 95l latter on in the carribiean looks festive down there
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 291431
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PERSISTENT
CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND LOCATED TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE
CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN
24 AND 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERYL WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS OR EVEN EARLIER...AND THEN BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-
MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES.
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 31.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 32.2N 81.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1200Z 33.3N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0000Z 34.7N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/1200Z 36.2N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 40.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
the NHC is having a hard time knowing when this will become a depression or tropical storm..they have moved it back and up along the coast of NC multiple times..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
local met. kirk mellish.

Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of a heavy shower or strong thunderstorm


When he uses this, especially 4 days out, bad things happen.
Might end up with quite a few trees down by the end of this event.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
More proof the Gulf of Mexico will be a hot spot for developing this season as opposed to others:

2012:



2011:



2010:

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73. MTWX
Moderate for tomorrow across South Central KS and Central OK!
Day 2 Outlook.

Main threat will be very large hail.
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Quoting Grothar:
Does anyone have a graph to show the current vertical instability for the Atlantic? I lost my link.

I thought I lost our dog this morning until after an hour I realized we didn't have one.

Link

Scroll down.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Who is ready for another massachusetts tornado?
Its been a while


MAweatherboy most likely
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Does anyone have a graph to show the current vertical instability for the Atlantic? I lost my link.

I thought I lost our dog this morning until after an hour I realized we didn't have one.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:They didnt over-hype it, they under-hyped it, if you were watching the Jacksonville Pier Cam, people were swimming intill the "eye wall" came in. That is the problem with under-hyping any type of tropical cyclone, people think it is a joke, and put themselves in harms way.



...that exact thing is also a side effect of overhype as well. What happens when storms are always indicated to be stronger than when they hit land, and people take notice of it?

I doubt the NHC was "hyping" anything (in either direction). Their forecast was probably what they actually expected for a pre-season subtropical-turned-tropical cyclone in late May. Just because there was error associated with the track/intensity forecast (there always is!) does not mean there was "hype".
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Who is ready for another massachusetts tornado?
Its been a while
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
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Quoting Jax82:


Well they did but they didnt I think. The top sustained wind i've seen so far has been 47MPH at Mayport (and 54MPH at Huguenot Park) at 11pm Sunday night. There was one gust of 73MPH at Buck island as it came on shore, the fastest gust recorded that ive seen. There were no sustained winds over 55MPH that i have seen, and definitely not 70MPH sustained winds. It was upgraded to 70MPH when the hurricane hunters flew threw an intense thunderstorm band as it was just off the coast, however it weakened as it came ashore. I dont think they totally messed up the forecast, they had been calling for 50-60MPH the whole time and from the reports thats what happened. Just sayin.


That's where it gets complicated. It seems like "maximum sustained" can mean a very tiny area; an area so small that it would miss observation stations most of the time. So when they use various techniques to estimate winds, the estimate is of the maximum sustained you would find in a small area if you were really looking for it, instead of the maximum sustained wind over a large portion of the eyewall that people could expect to see when it moves over. I'm not exactly sure why it is done this way but hurricanes are not my strong point so this should probably be deferred to others for beyond what I mentioned above.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Do any official entities issue official forecasts that indicate which months will receive storms? Typically said forecasts are for the entire season (including just before and just after the official "season"). And even covering such a large period that averages out noise, it is widely known that forecast skill is kind of low compared to climatology.


scott lincoln, have you analyzed the next trough yet or are you still looking at the rains for the southern mississippi valley?

I dont think the shear is high enough for more than a 15%tornado risk if that much.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Do any official entities issue official forecasts that indicate which months will receive storms? Typically said forecasts are for the entire season (including just before and just after the official "season"). And even covering such a large period that averages out noise, it is widely known that forecast skill is kind of low compared to climatology.


I say somebody asks the NHC but I call not it, don't want to be that guy : )
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Let's just put it this way...NHC and NOAA didn't think 2 named storms would have passed before the season started.....case closed.


Do any official entities issue official forecasts that indicate which months will receive storms? Typically said forecasts are for the entire season (including just before and just after the official "season"). And even covering such a large period that averages out noise, it is widely known that forecast skill is kind of low compared to climatology.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That is true, and it's a good thing. But it's interesting to note that this was the seventh heat wave this year: the first week of January; first week of February; the massive mid-March wave; first week of April; third week of April; first week of May; and the one just past. Meanwhile, there have been no cold waves, nor even anything that can qualify as a "cool" wave. There have only been six days this year to see more than 100 low temperature records set or tied. By way of comparison, there have been 86 days with 100 or more high temperature records. This chart shows what a lopsidedly warm year 2012 has so far been:

Hot


Also this chart is generally that idea and I see your point but it also accounts for the daily low minimum AND maximum for the cold and the same for the warm. Not taking jabs I'm just noting
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A very cloudy day here in Wilmington..despite the filming of Iron Man 3, its just an ordinary gloomy day..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm curious. :P


I don't blame ya... See that stuff all the time
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Quoting nchurricane:
does anyone have any good looping satellites of Beryl?


Here:




Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That is true, and it's a good thing. But it's interesting to note that this was the seventh heat wave this year: the first week of January; first week of February; the massive mid-March wave; first week of April; third week of April; first week of May; and the one just past. Meanwhile, there have been no cold waves, nor even anything that can qualify as a "cool" wave. There have only been six days this year to see more than 100 low temperature records set or tied. By way of comparison, there have been 86 days with 100 or more high temperature records. This chart shows what a lopsidedly warm year 2012 has so far been:

Hot


Aren't the experts predicting cooler weather once el niño sets In, I mean one effect is that troughs dip lower
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Quoting weatherh98:


Cody asks them questions on facebook

I'm curious. :P
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Nice S Shape... If i were in the (N and S) Carolina's, I would watch this closely...

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting RitaEvac:


Mayport, FL: sustained winds of 54mph gust to 63mph

Kings Bay Naval Sub Base: 65mph winds, wind gage failed.

Buck Island, FL: 73mph wind gust

Buoy, 42 miles ENE of St Augustine FL: sustained peak wind of 51mph gust to 67mph, pressure 994mb.



Dang, Kings Bay better upgrade their wind gauge if its failing at 64mph, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Quoting JeffMasters:
...the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.
That is true, and it's a good thing. But it's interesting to note that this was the seventh heat wave this year: the first week of January; first week of February; the massive mid-March wave; first week of April; third week of April; first week of May; and the one just past. Meanwhile, there have been no cold waves, nor even anything that can qualify as a "cool" wave. There have only been six days this year to see more than 100 low temperature records set or tied. By way of comparison, there have been 86 days with 100 or more high temperature records. This chart shows what a lopsidedly warm year 2012 has so far been:

Hot
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Pat,here is todays TCPOD for tommorow afternoon's mission.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 29 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-011

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 30/1800Z, 31/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0402A BERYL
C. 30/1530Z
D. 34.0N 78.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 31/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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Quoting Jax82:


Well they did but they didnt I think. The top sustained wind i've seen so far has been 47MPH at Mayport at 11pm Sunday night. There was one gust of 73MPH at Buck island as it came on shore, the fastest gust recorded that ive seen. There were no sustained winds over 50MPH that i have seen, and definitely not 70MPH sustained winds. It was upgraded to 70MPH when the hurricane hunters flew threw an intense thunderstorm band as it was just off the coast, however it weakened as it came ashore. I dont think they totally messed up the forecast, they had been calling for 50-60MPH the whole time and from the reports thats what happened. Just sayin.



Well, winds are reduced greatly by land friction

That's expected with Katrina, winds were 130 and I was 30 miles from landfall (right under the eye wall and our top winds were 85, not 130
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does anyone have any good looping satellites of Beryl?
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Quoting Jax82:


Well they did but they didnt I think. The top sustained wind i've seen so far has been 47MPH at Mayport at 11pm Sunday night. There was one gust of 73MPH at Buck island as it came on shore, the fastest gust recorded that ive seen. There were no sustained winds over 50MPH that i have seen, and definitely not 70MPH sustained winds. It was upgraded to 70MPH when the hurricane hunters flew threw an intense thunderstorm band as it was just off the coast, however it weakened as it came ashore. I dont think they totally messed up the forecast, they had been calling for 50-60MPH the whole time and from the reports thats what happened. Just sayin.


Mayport, FL: sustained winds of 54mph gust to 63mph

Kings Bay Naval Sub Base: 65mph winds, wind gage failed.

Buck Island, FL: 73mph wind gust

Buoy, 42 miles ENE of St Augustine FL: sustained peak wind of 51mph gust to 67mph, pressure 994mb.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Jax82:


Well they did but they didnt I think. The top sustained wind i've seen so far has been 47MPH at Mayport at 11pm Sunday night. There was one gust of 73MPH at Buck island as it came on shore, the fastest gust recorded that ive seen. There were no sustained winds over 50MPH that i have seen, and definitely not 70MPH sustained winds. It was upgraded to 70MPH when the hurricane hunters flew threw an intense thunderstorm band as it was just off the coast, however it weakened as it came ashore. I dont think they totally messed up the forecast, they had been calling for 50-60MPH the whole time and from the reports thats what happened. Just sayin.


My thoughts on the matter, is that it did reach 70mph over the gulf stream, but was on a weakening trend as it made landfall.

This has been a drought buster for N Florida, and S Georgia
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Maybe implying you will save money if you properly prepare your home? I gave it a shot. lol
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Quoting RitaEvac:
What are they $ signs on his arms for Pat?



Have cash on hand as ATM's won't work without da powa'

Note the cash in Hurlo's Belt,


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
I Don't expect any rains for a long time in Texas(except maybe far west Texas) after Thursday-Friday as a full-latitude trough over the East this weekend will preclude any disturbances coming your way till next weekend(9-10) at the earliest!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
What are they $ signs on his arms for Pat?



That's how he makes money right der
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not Really (At least not with this one).... They forcasted Beryl to make landfall at 50mph in North Georgia and make the turn fast.

It made landfall in Jacksonville, Florida at 70/75mph and Took its sweet time.

NHC did not get this one right at all.


Well they did but they didnt I think. The top sustained wind i've seen so far has been 47MPH at Mayport (and 54MPH at Huguenot Park) at 11pm Sunday night. There was one gust of 73MPH at Buck island as it came on shore, the fastest gust recorded that ive seen. There were no sustained winds over 55MPH that i have seen, and definitely not 70MPH sustained winds. It was upgraded to 70MPH when the hurricane hunters flew threw an intense thunderstorm band as it was just off the coast, however it weakened as it came ashore. I dont think they totally messed up the forecast, they had been calling for 50-60MPH the whole time and from the reports thats what happened. Just sayin.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
What are they $ signs on his arms for Pat?

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting weatherh98:


I have gone to the lake (NOT SWIMMING) during many tropical storms but when I hear hurricane, I hunker down baby... Gotta oil and gas up that chainsaw.

Scratch the swimming part, I went swimming during lee last year. Not in the open part of lake pontchartrain, a sea wall flooded
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Quoting SCwannabe:


You can't change stupidity! They would have been there no matter what.


I have gone to the lake (NOT SWIMMING) during many tropical storms but when I hear hurricane, I hunker down baby... Gotta oil and gas up that chainsaw.
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Quoting Patrap:
.."I have a history of taking off my shirt"...


Comic Relief

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting lobdelse81:

Lets ask them, lol


Cody asks them questions on facebook
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Quoting RitaEvac:
SE TX:

Dry pattern upper level pattern of ridging aloft and at the surface continues to support little if any rainfall over the area has been the case for the past 1.5-2 weeks. Ground moisture is starting to dry with the hot afternoon temperatures and gusty south winds


2011 versus 2012 Rainfall:

While the last few weeks have been very dry, rainfall for the first part of 2012 has been extremely heavy with some locations recording their first or second wettest year to date starts on record. Most locations are averaging between 3-4 times greater rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011.

Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81



**Even while rain has been HUGE this year, already north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture**

After all number crunching which is meaningless in the end, TX is still in the hole, These numbers "look impressive" but in reality are still unacceptable...



"... already north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture ...

Yes. I can attest to this. I am lightly watering my pecan trees now to keep some moisture in the soil.
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Quoting Patrap:
.."I have a history of taking off my shirt"...


Me too
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Yep, make that 1007 mb. low:




If this comes to pass, this could turn into a brutal Nor'easter(I believe) as it races northeastwards up the East Coast and phases with the weekend trough!!!
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Quoting SCwannabe:


Did u talk to all of them personally or did they issue a statement?

Lets ask them, lol
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


I Typically agree with the National Hurricane Center, but this time i am at odds with them. An intensity forcast of 50mph at landfall when it was 40mph with 36+ hours to go, including going over the gulf stream was incorrect. They didnt over-hype it, they under-hyped it, if you were watching the Jacksonville Pier Cam, people were swimming intill the "eye wall" came in. That is the problem with under-hyping any type of tropical cyclone, people think it is a joke, and put themselves in harms way.

Link


You can't change stupidity! They would have been there no matter what.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
More intense rains moving into areas that close to a FOOT of rain last night.



How do you feel about that carribean disturbance, may bring more rain to area's on the gulf coast
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Thanks doc.. Woah tough day already and it is HOT good morning
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.