Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting rmbjoe1954:



What does a lowering NAO mean?

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia. The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low. The corresponding index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years.

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8153
We had some street flooding over night. I really don't know how bad things are out there at the moment.
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Quoting weatherh98:


North Atlantic Oscillation


Thanks but what does it mean when the NAO takes a dive?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


They keep thinking this will go today but it's not supposed to until Thursday or Friday.

We just went through this with Beryl. It's not going to "go" at all because conditions are too unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean. None of the models, not even the CMC and NGP, show any sort of development, and when those two aren't...you know nothing is going to form. The pattern won't be like Alberto/Beryl by the time this gets up near Florida, it'll just be a blob of showers that moves northward.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
Quoting rmbjoe1954:



What does a lowering NAO mean?


North Atlantic Oscillation
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Quoting mermaidlaw:
Hello everyone. I just wanted to say that I received 9 inches of rain over night. Also had lots of thunder and lightening. This is the first rain at my home in a long time. Now I am about to get slammed again here in North West Hernando county, FL. Stay safe everyone.


Any flooding going on in your area?
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Quoting nigel20:
Tropics posted this yesterday....the NAO is really taking a dive




What does a lowering NAO mean?
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Uh oh, weather radio just said rotation spotted near Glen lakes, right by my house! It is dark as night here.
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Hello everyone. I just wanted to say that I received 9 inches of rain over night. Also had lots of thunder and lightening. This is the first rain at my home in a long time. Now I am about to get slammed again here in North West Hernando county, FL. Stay safe everyone.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


scott lincoln, have you analyzed the next trough yet or are you still looking at the rains for the southern mississippi valley?

I dont think the shear is high enough for more than a 15%tornado risk if that much.


Well typically because of my job I am more focused on the precipitation potential of systems moving in, but have glanced at the next trough for a bit. At least from the GFS standpoint it looks like AL/GA would be the best area for potential severe weather on Friday. SPC still says that confidence is too low to outline a threat area.
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Tropics posted this yesterday....the NAO is really taking a dive

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8153
Quoting utilaeastwind:
Winds are blowing from the west at about 8kts on the Island Utila.

16.1N 86.9W

yes same in roatan and NW in Puerto Lempira
indicative of a possible circulation forming
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Chance of rain go up to 70% on Saturday why??


Hurricane Chris moving thru









Sarcasm Flag:ON
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TRoppics chat anyone?
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Chance of rain go up to 70% on Saturday why??


Because of this.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
New GFS coming in further north and weaker with the trough, so far...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Chance of rain go up to 70% on Saturday why??
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
Winds are blowing from the west at about 8kts on the Island Utila.

16.1N 86.9W


Thanks!
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Quoting weatherh98:


The divergence is over the thunderstorm complex,but there is no convergence right there

git it some time it should be there soon yesterday morning there was basicly none in the area now there is some give it time let it build
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, he's absolutely correct and that diagram you posted just shows divergence, which the focus is over land. There is nothing on the 850mb vort maps to indicate a surface circulation even exists, and pressures aren't lowering in the area.


Wunderkid posted convergence
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Winds are blowing from the west at about 8kts on the Island Utila.

16.1N 86.9W
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


They keep thinking this will go today but it's not supposed to until Thursday or Friday.

yes Thurs/Fri timefame
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May 27, 2011 TCHP

May 27, 2012 TCHP


Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8153
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

think again



The divergence is over the thunderstorm complex,but there is no convergence right there
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes for now but that will change plus I have been watching it from long time and the divergence has increased greatly compaired to yesterday morning which showed nothing look I am not expecting quick development of this system but I think we will find development that will be noticeable within the next 48-72 hours


They keep thinking this will go today but it's not supposed to until Thursday or Friday.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what month do you guys think el nino will form? for me i say september


Todays CPC update has Nino 3.4 unchanged at 0.0C.

Link
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Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like Goargia, Florida, and the southeast are gonna get a nice treat early next week in the wake of this weekends full-latitude trough(and Beryles welcomed but dreary showers)!

This front is even forecasted to clear south Florida!

Sunday(June 3ed)



Monday(June 4th)



Tuesday(June 6th)



i dont like that treat.
The trough is the treat.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting RitaEvac:
If you like Tuna, well....may want to find a new fish to eat

Or all fish...



Quoting Article Excerpt:

The levels of radioactive cesium were 10 times higher than the amount measured in tuna off the California coast in previous years. But even so, that's still far below safe-to-eat limits set by the U.S. and Japanese governments.

Read more: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/health/2012/05/29 /radioactive-tuna-swim-from-japan-to-california/#i xzz1wH1OJw1K
Member Since: June 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
Good morning all!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, he's absolutely correct and that diagram you posted just shows divergence, which the focus is over land. There is nothing on the 850mb vort maps to indicate a surface circulation even exists, and pressures aren't lowering in the area.

yes for now but that will change plus I have been watching it from long time and the divergence has increased greatly compaired to yesterday morning which showed nothing look I am not expecting quick development of this system but I think we will find development that will be noticeable within the next 48-72 hours
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yes you can see this back building to just south of Mobile,AL. Some areas will see an additional 2" to 4" this afternoon.



Check out the Tampa Shield.
This is the 2nd line that deteriorated to miss Tampa, Now we wait for the 3rd one:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
May 29, 2012

Daily SOI: -10.32
30 day SOI: -1.74

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8153
what month do you guys think el nino will form? for me i say september
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
That is one hell of a thunderstorm segment west of the nature coast...

The sun is beginning to come out from hillsborough county south and may destabilize the atmosphere again. Wondering if another round of storms will affect the bay area...


Yes you can see this back building to just south of Mobile,AL. Some areas will see an additional 2" to 4" this afternoon.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Thanks Dr. Masters...good morning all
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8153
look at the obs(in blue)


shows some kinda circulation forming

windsat show some sort of weak not closed circulation on the NE hon coast


just waiting for OSCAT and ASCAT to make its pass

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is still just thunderstorm activity being fuled by an abundance of upper divergence. It has shown no persistence whatsoever and has shown no signs of trying to form a surface low.



It's not expected to form today but later this week there are indications something may try to go as some of the models are indicating.

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Quoting RitaEvac:
What are they $ signs on his arms for Pat?

need money and lots of it before during and after a storm to buy everything you need before during and after the storm
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

think again



No, he's absolutely correct and that diagram you posted just shows divergence, which the focus is over land. There is nothing on the 850mb vort maps to indicate a surface circulation even exists, and pressures aren't lowering in the area.
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Looks like Goargia, Florida, and the southeast are gonna get a nice treat early next week in the wake of this weekends full-latitude trough(and Beryles welcomed but dreary showers)!

This front is even forecasted to clear south Florida!

Sunday(June 3ed)



Monday(June 4th)



Tuesday(June 6th)

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is still just thunderstorm activity being fuled by an abundance of upper divergence. It has shown no persistence whatsoever and has shown no signs of trying to form a surface low.


think again

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This looks damaging.


3/4th inch hail being picked up in radar in that.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Beryl is gonna be a nice looking storm on satellite as it pushes out to sea


Rita, this Storm is looking Nice even after being over Land so long...



Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
That is one hell of a thunderstorm segment west of the nature coast...

The sun is beginning to come out from hillsborough county south and may destabilize the atmosphere again. Wondering if another round of storms will affect the bay area...


That Band will slowly work down the coast, continuing to pull moisture off the gulf and heavy rainfall. May be severe later today.
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From Inaccuweather:
Watching the Caribbean in the Wake of Beryl


They needed something to hype and they found it.

BTW, tornado on ground in SE GA.
18z GFS trickling in
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Not Really (At least not with this one).... They forcasted Beryl to make landfall at 50mph in North Georgia and make the turn fast.

It made landfall in Jacksonville, Florida at 70/75mph and Took its sweet time.

NHC did not get this one right at all.


That's not what I recall, they said FL and it might go inland some then slowly turn NE, which is what Beryl is doing.
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um looks to me like td beryl is going almost due east now... say it gets over water quicker than expected, if it intensifies more than expected will this change its path?
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That is one hell of a thunderstorm segment west of the nature coast...

The sun is beginning to come out from hillsborough county south and may destabilize the atmosphere again. Wondering if another round of storms will affect the bay area...
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Beryl is gonna be a nice looking storm on satellite as it pushes out to sea
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Quoting 7544:
hmm morning all beryl still doing good

could we see 95l latter on in the carribiean looks festive down there

It is still just thunderstorm activity being fuled by an abundance of upper divergence. It has shown no persistence whatsoever and has shown no signs of trying to form a surface low.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
If you like Tuna, well....may want to find a new fish to eat

Or all fish...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.